Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup YANKEE Here you go Bluenose: 1:45 Archers Road - Hugely impressive so far this season, and ran anothe massive race at Ascot on Saturday when only beaten 0.5 lengths by 1/2 fav. Star Rover the danger 2:15 Simple Solution - The break since last run is a slight worry and may just need the run, but with the yard in such fine form, that should on it's won give her a huge chance here 3:15 Strike Up The Band - Joint top weight, but plum draw and looks to be stable first string based on jockey bookings. Big chance at a decent price 4:00 King's Destiny - Form of last race working out really well, with the 3rd since winning a big race at Ascot. Fortuni a non-runner is a big plus for his chances. Headline Act the danger Good luck

[RussP]

Re: Chester Weds 6th May

Fair enough. I brought this race up because someone stated earlier that in a 5f sprint they wouldn't back anything drawn higher than 4. I am merely making a point that I would' date=' depending on a race. I am not going to not back a horse just because of where it is drawn. Obviously, I will take it's draw into account. But as long as the price reflects the draw then I'll stick with my fancy[/quote']

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester Weds 6th May

What I actually said was that in the big sprint race (3.15), only consider stalls 1-6 and that the winner would probably come from stalls 1-4. This was purely in a bid to narrow the field down. I never said that this should be applied to all 5f Chester races although, in big fields (ie, 10+), I would probably stick to this strategy. As said earlier though, it's a no bet race for me.

My quote wasn't directed at your post. I just meant that a rigid theory of "4 or under" would be a little excessive. :ok

[JackJarvis]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.15 Chester
Selection	Simple Solution (BOG) (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	06/05/2009
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 6.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Barry Hills has started the season in blinding form having had some 3 year old winners including the 1000 Guineas winner on Sunday. His fillies in particular have started well and I remember he had a nice winner in an Oaks trial a few weeks back (High Heeled). In todays Cheshire Oaks, Hill's runs SIMPLE SOLUTION and she looks the value in the race for me. An encouraging 5th on debut at Newmarket last season she then won an 8furlong maiden at Kempton with plenty in hand. The form of that race is not great but it has been boosted with the 2nd and 4th both running well and winning since. This doesn't look an overly competitive race and with natural progression over the winter, I think she represents a good bet at 5/1 with the step up in trip obviously going to bring about more improvement.

[RussP]

Re: Chester Weds 6th May

My quote wasn't directed at your post. I just meant that a rigid theory of "4 or under" would be a little excessive. :ok

:ok Sorry Billy. I've just read my post back....it seems a bit aggressive. It wasn't meant that way:$ I was just saying that in the 3.15, I'd stick to low numbers. It's a general rule at Chester, obviously, but I would also treat each race on its merits.

[fintron]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup In my experience the draw has proven critical at Chester. I've backed Green Manalishi before because it was drawn low, and won both times. The bias is just as strong as the high bias at Beverley (high in that case)and Kempton (also high) over the sprint distances IMO. Obviously, in small fields it doesn't matter so much and if there is a lack of pace in the race, a front runner can still cross over from what looks a bad draw to win, but I am a believer in draw biases and that in the long run they need to be taken note of. That said, in the maiden that closes the card I have backed one from the wide draw, but I've done that because they race over 1m 2f, and Shane Kelly will have time to get his horse into a position and because the horse was held up on his debut and so may not need set the pace. But if I was backing a horse like Strike Up the Band over a sprint, i'd pass over it if it wasn't drawn low.

[Spooner]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup I find this meeting so difficult, hopefully will be better this year. Two for me today. 13:45 - Mijas Playa 10pts win @ 11/4 Paddy Power (bog) As people have spoken about, the low drawn horses will have a big advantage over the 5f here and Mijas Playa is drawn in stall 3, he was 2nd on racecourse debut at Newmarket beating 1½ lengths. Only a few horses have run again since, the 5th & 7th placed horses (Azif & Crown) both went onto score at Windsor so the form is starting to look good. He should run well here this afternoon and looks the one to beat out of the low drawn horses, Archers Road has shown some promise but he will need a good break from stall 7. 14:15 - Hidden Brief 10pts win @ 10/3 Paddy Power (bog) Hidden Brief ran a good race LTO when 2nd behind Peter Chapple-Hyam's filly, the two pulled 8 lengths clear of the 3rd and I thought to myself after the race that Hidden Brief might be worth backing next time out as he looks sure to win a race, he was 4th first time out at Yarmouth, the 5th (Ocean Minstrel) has gone onto win twice, he won a class 1 listed race at Lingfield so again the form looks pretty decent, Frankie Dettori saddles.

[fintron]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup 1.45 A fascinating race in prospect with both Archers Road and Star Rover setting a decent level of form, however, neither are ideally drawn. The same can be said of My Mandy, who looked all over the winner at Haydock last time and looks certain to win races, although, she could have perhaps been found an easier race to open her account. She looks the value bet of the race at 18/1. Because of the draw, I'm leaving this race alone, but will wait for the result with interest. 3.15 Strike Up the Band is well drawn in stall 1 here and has been running consistently. With the Dandy Nicholls yard back in form, he could feasibly run a big race. Although he failed to rip up any trees over in Dubai he was running well over here last season, a win last August in the Shergar Dash handicap at Ascot off 6 lb lower is a nice win, and second placed efforts behind Crimson Fern and Tom's Laughter also read well. His mark was raised after those efforts and he was pushed out of handicaps, but ran well enough in a conditions race at Beverley and also at Lingfield and Nottingham this season in a listed and then conditions race. His mark has recently been dropped back down, making handicaps a more attractive option than has been the case recently. He was short of room at Lingfield, when he wasn't able to dominate and had to track the leaders (ideally he would like to lead himself) and last time out at Nott Rivaulx World took him on for the lead so it was little suprise to see his effort fade away. With Fyodor and Good Gorsoon drawn next door likely to be content to hand him the lead, I think he will get the race run to suit. Sohraab is likely to sit on his shoulder, and the potential fly in the ointment is Angus Newz, who can go well here and has been known to set the pace herself. I think, as was the case last time out, she may track the leader here, but i think the outcome of the race depends on how fast Strike Up The Band and Angus Newz go. 4/1 Paddy EW 4.00 Chester A magnificent race in prospect, this is the race I'm most looking forward to today, although had Fortuni (emphatic winner at Lingfield last time out) kept his place in the line up I would have been even more excited. King's Destiny has only been raised 3 lb for a win over Thief of Time, Takaatuf and Headline Act last time out. Takaatuf and Headline Act have franked the form, and the extra yardage here is sure to suit as the Jarvis runner got on top late last time out. However, with Headline Act priced at 4/1, he is also a must bet for me today. I talked up his chances before his last time out win but talked myself out of a bet because of the prices, and it came to bite me on the backside. I think he remains ahead of the handicapper even after a 5 lb rise. He beat Gitano Hernando at Brighton last year, that rival won off 84 at Doncaster this season, whilst Headline Act was initially rated 77 by the assessor. Two runs ago at Leicester, Headline Act was 4th, only a length or so behind Takaatuf, who won off 85 next time out, and I think he is probably more closely matched with the leaders than he showed at Leicester that day. He was treading water for a while but continued to plug on until the death. I don't think the step up in trip will pose any problems and now he is a little sharper I think he can give the Jarvis horse more to think about off a mark of 82. I'm going roughly even money for the pair coupled.... Headline Act - 4/1 Bet 365, 0.4 pt King's Destiny - 5/2 Blue Square 0.6 pt

[fintron]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup 4.35 Chester Calypso Bay starts from the outside draw here which may be deemed to be a negative, but he came from off the pace last time out in pleasing fashion and in Shane Kelly, is due to be ridden by a jockey that is able to win on horses from unfavourable positions. Forgotten Voice was poorly drawn at Kempton yesterday but Mr Cool negotiated him into a position to win and I think he can do the same with this Galileo colt here. The form of his debut third at Newmarket is working out well with the second (Native Ruler), seventh (Ostaadi) and twelfth (Uniquely Poised) all winning next time out. The eight (Horsley Warrior) has solidified that maiden form with Ostaadi too as well, and given Caplypso Bay ran on towards the finish last time out, the extra two furlongs here should be in his favour. 7/2 Bet 365 EW.

[Trotter]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup

Gala Evening Desert Sea Som Tala Double Banded Downhiller Nemo Spirit

Chester Cup......... Anyone know what happened to Nemo Spirit ? It's not shown as a non-runner but it doesn't appear on the racecard...... I'm wondering if I imagined it being a runner.........:loon

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester Weds 6th May

:ok Sorry Billy. I've just read my post back....it seems a bit aggressive. It wasn't meant that way:$ I was just saying that in the 3.15, I'd stick to low numbers. It's a general rule at Chester, obviously, but I would also treat each race on its merits.

Nah I know that mate, don't be silly. I agree totally. :ok

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup 2.15 Roses for the Lady 3/1 sj bog 10 pts The combination that won the 2000g could strike here. This one has gradually stepped up her form and lto was a narrow winner at leop of a race that has worked out very well. Second has won since, o’briens who re opposes here has ran well in a listed contest, the fifth has also won and even the tenth who has come out of that race has won. She looks a staying type so the extra distance today should help and whilst she isn’t in the eng oaks, she has other high profile entries and oxx doesn’t send them over here for nothing. 2.45 Gala Evening 16/1 wh bog 5 pts e.w Very competitive but the inform Gala Evening can go well. This one has been running over hurdles and on the flat and been running well. Most of his flat form has been a.w based but he can clearly go on the turf. Lto on the flat he ran well in a race that concerns most of these, to be second and whilst he is 3 pounds higher today, he still seems capable enough to give a good account of himself. His hurdles form for what it is worth has been good lately and his draw could have been worse. 4.00 Headline Act 9/2 wh bog 10 pts Backed this one lto in what was an easy enough win on the a.w. The form of that win I don’t think was special but he did it well enough and he meets an interesting rival, Kings Destiny today. KD beat HA in a race that has worked out well at leic and is on slightly better terms today. However that was at 10f and Im not sure this stiffer test in terms of distance is guaranteed to suit KD, whereas it plays right into Gosden’s horses hands and the horse who earlier had decent form including a victory over gitano hernando last year, can win this. 4.35 Harbinger 5/4 lad 10 pts This one has some very interesting entries from the stoute yard, derby, dante, king Edward 7 so clearly he is well thought of and he ran well too on his debut at hq. He was only just denied over what was probably an inadequate mile and whilst the third only ran ok afterwards, the fifth ran really well behind native ruler with those pair a mile clear. Harbinger looks the type to relish the extra distance today and whilst this is a fairly tough maiden, he has a good chance for a yard who’ runners have been running well lately.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup 1.45 Chester - MIJAS PLAYA - 4pt win (5/2bog PaddyPower) Encouraging debut run finishing 2nd behind It's Alright at Newmarket last month - 5th Azif and 7th Crown have come out and won since so the form has a solid look to it. 6th placed Six Wives has come out and run closer to Kings Of Leo lto. Mijas Playa, on the face of it, holds Kings Of Leo through Six Wives - over 2L and 3lbs in hand. Better drawn than the other main protagonists here, in 3, of which my opinion is that that will be an advantage. I'd be more worried about Archers Road than by Star Rover or Kings Of Leo, but that one is the worst drawn of all 4 market leaders. --------------------------- 2.45 Chester - TILT - 0.5pt win & 2pt place (12/1bog [money back if 2nd PaddyPower] & 9/4 PaddyPower) Was one of the trio that pulled away from the rest in this race last year, ultimately finishing 3rd - beaten 1/2L and a nk. A neck in front that day was Som Tala, who reopposes today but Tilt is 1lb better in. Tilt looked likely to win inside the distance last year before things got a bit tight. Tilt ran on well over the slightly shorter distance of the Cesarewitch at HQ in October to finish a creditable 6th of 32 at 66/1, further proving his liking for these sort of distances. Should be all the better for his reappearance run behind Hatton Flight at Epsom - too short a distance, no cheekpieces, only 1 good run out of 3 at Epsom - and back up in trip, with the cheekpieces re-applied, at a course he enjoyed last year and a decent draw in 5, can go close again. -------------------------- 3.15 Chester - STRIKE UP THE BAND - 2.5pt win (7/2bog BlueSq) Should break in splendid isolation from the box stall in 1. Stall 2 is now empty, Good Gorsoon in 3 is a hold up horse. As mentioned previously, rightly or wrongly, I do place great stock in the draw bias at Chester - and it has paid dividends over the years. SUTB is able to run off a mark 8lb lower than his lto run on the AW at Lingfield, and he is undoubtedly better on turn than the AW. Given he led for much of the race before coming a 2L 4th on ground probably just on the firm side for him, he looks handily weighted here. Also going to have a sneaky ctc with Angus Newz and Sohraab. -------------------------- 4.00 Chester - KINGS DESTINY - 4pt win (11/4bog BlueSq) Form of his lto Leicester win has already been boosted by the close up 3rd and the 4th, Takaatuf and Headline Act, giving the form a very solid look to it. With the 2nd Thief Of Time finding only a handicap blot too good the next time and the 6th also finishing 2nd nto. The way Kings Destiny won that day - only getting up close home after a sustained run - lends weight to the thought the extra 2f today will be to the benefit of him. -------------------------- 4.35 Chester - HARBINGER - 6pt win (6/5bog PaddyPower) Ran to market expectations in the Wood Ditton, finishing well to take 2nd over the 8f trip. Was always going to be suited by further than that distance, and today's 2f further is sure to suit. Entered in the Dante, the Derby and the King Edward VII, needs to be taking this event today in order to justify the lofty hopes of connections.

[Lucky-15]

Re: Chester Weds 6th May

I do' date=' but people used to say the same about Doncaster. I tell you one thing. The first race, Archers Road and Star Rover are drawn 7 and 5 respectively. I would take those 2 against the field all day long[/quote'] Draw Broken Good Shout WW:clap

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Chester Weds 6th May

Draw Broken Good Shout WW:clap

Cheers. They were miles clear of the rest. Typical though that I chose Archers Road for the yankee. Absolutely typical!!!

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester Weds 6th May

Draw Broken Good Shout WW:clap

As we were saying last night. There were only 8 runners so there drawn has no real significance here. This is not the race for draw talk. It only comes into place when there are big fields. Besides Star Rover was drawn 5! :ok

[TOP CAT]

Re: Chester Weds 6th May

I do' date=' but people used to say the same about Doncaster. I tell you one thing. The first race, Archers Road and Star Rover are drawn 7 and 5 respectively. I would take those 2 against the field all day long[/quote'] OHHHHHH he KNOWS chester 100% ''BANG'' on ''There's your F***ING DINNER !!! :notworthy Hail the wizzkid you da man man.:clap

[fintron]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup I don't think you can ignore the draw bias at Chester off the back of this result this afternoon. The course configuration of Chester means those drawn low will have an advantage, as others said above, they have less yardage to make up before they hit the rail. This is in contrast to courses where the sprints are run over a straight track - such as at Donc which WW mentioned, or somewhere like Southwell. The runners go flat out, there is no turns or bends, and IMO the bias is less important. Well done with the SF WW though :clap

[Lucky-15]

Re: Chester Weds 6th May

As we were saying last night. There were only 8 runners so there drawn has no real significance here. This is not the race for draw talk. It only comes into place when there are big fields. Besides Star Rover was drawn 5! :ok

Only having a laugh in my trends thread i've taken the draw bias as 1-6 so i expected that to be in with a shout!:$

[TOP CAT]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup

Chester Cup......... Anyone know what happened to Nemo Spirit ? It's not shown as a non-runner but it doesn't appear on the racecard...... I'm wondering if I imagined it being a runner.........:loon

lol haha ive done that Trotter

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup

I don't think you can ignore the draw bias at Chester off the back of this result this afternoon. The course configuration of Chester means those drawn low will have an advantage, as others said above, they have less yardage to make up before they hit the rail. This is in contrast to courses where the sprints are run over a straight track - such as at Donc which WW mentioned, or somewhere like Southwell. The runners go flat out, there is no turns or bends, and IMO the bias is less important. Well done with the SF WW though :clap

Read my post on draws. There is a slight advantage, but it's more than possible to overcome. Only in big fields over 5f does it get extremely difficult for high draws. It's not solely the shorter distance, it's about hitting the bend fast, running wide and ending up all at sea in the middle of the course. Pretty much like Mijas Playa in the first - due to missing the break she was positioned as a wider drawn horse come the straight. This is why in bigger fields the 1 box doesn't always fare well - if they miss the break in 1 they have to come wide and therefore it negates the original draw bonus.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup I think the experience of Star Rover & Archers Road told the story there. What a game little horse that Star Rover is. Went off like lightning and kept finding more when pressed.

[fintron]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup yeah, Star Rover done well to win, giving away weight and didn't have a claiming jockey on top today either. over what distance do people start to say the draw bias is inconsequential? Take the 4.35 for example, Calypso Bay is priced at 5/1 and IMO that price is only so big because he is drawn widest of all in stall 14. But do you think the draw will effect this horse at all? I mean, they're going over 1m 2f and it isn't essential for the horse to be raced up with the pace, as it came home late on his debut at Newmarket. I personally pay less attention to the draw over a distance over a mile, especially if I'm on a hold up horse. What does everyone else do?

[JackJarvis]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup What a ride from Murtagh, different class.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup In no way, shape or form am I saying that the 1st result shows there's no draw bias at Chester, because clearly it doesn't. But I offered you 6/5 for the field Billy and you said you would have taken that. That wasn't really a discussion about draw bias, just an opinion on the race. Personally I think that sooner or later the draw bias will be beaten, but that's just my opinion

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup

In no way' date=' shape or form am I saying that the 1st result shows there's no draw bias at Chester, because clearly it doesn't. But I offered you 6/5 for the field Billy and you said you would have taken that. That wasn't really a discussion about draw bias, just an opinion on the race. Personally I think that sooner or later the draw bias will be beaten, but that's just my opinion[/quote'] I said I would take 6/5 the field, as I said at the time, that was not based on draw. I hyperthetically took the 6/5 the field because the field was actually trading around 4/5 at that point. The 5/6 on you were happy to take on Archers Road and Star Rover was wrong - and that was proved with their SP's, the pair were 13/8 at the off. I knew the price of 6/5 the field was wrong, that is why I said I would take it, at the off the field was 8/13. Thankfully making a living is not about one race. Walter, could you explain how or why the draw bias (for big fields over 5f) will be beaten, sooner or later? :ok

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup That's why Richard Hills is one of the best in the world

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup Amerigo just proved that the draw plays a part, even over 2m2f.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup

That's why Richard Hills is one of the best in the world

Trainer's horses absolutely flying more the case. But he's riding well, better than I was used to see him do in previous seasons.

[Rainbow]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup carcinetto 315 chest. 0.5 pts ew. has a decent draw in stall 5, and thats very important over this trip at this track, and also has the form and race make up to be involved in the finish of this race. a mark of 95 would be higher than recently, but looking deep at his form and i think he has every chance in this race today. massive odds i think at around 30s on betfair.