fintron Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 2.45 - Chester Cup Has anyone had anything on this race yet? Run over 19f this heritage handicap, worth £74,772 to the winner, must rank as one of the longest flat races of the season? It is open to horses aged 4 yo upwards, and 17 runners are declared. The race threw up a surprise winner last year when Ian Williams' Bullwark rolled in at 33/1 which followed 14/1, 28/1 and 16/1 upsets on the previous three runnings. Two favourites have won this race in the last decade, the last of which was Anak Pekan in 2004, who actually retained his crown the following year for Michael Jarvis. Trends wise, very little stood out to me, although, as you would expect in a race of this length, proven ability over a distance of two miles plus is an obvious advantage as all of the last ten winners had previous winning form over 2m+. In all fairness, this race looks wide open. There are a couple of unexposed horses that could be ahead of the handicapper, but are not yet proven over the trip, and there are several older heads that have the ability to win, but appear inconsistent. In an attempt to find a winner I have focussed on trainer stats, looking for those trainers that have proven profitable to follow in staying races. David Arburthnot is one such man, and boasts an impressive record of 7-33 in 4 yo+ GB flat races run over 13f+ in the past five years, which amounts to level stakes profit of +29.83. The Berkshire handler is in good form at present too, with 2 winners from six runners in the past fortnight. Another trainer with good looking stats is Jim Old, whose figures under the same criteria are 3-8, with a LSP of +29, although there is little recent form to go on with regards to the yard's current form, as they have sent out just the one runner in the past fortnight, a 25/1 shot which pulled up at Bangor. Arbuthnot sends out Desert Sea here, whilst Old saddles up Gala Evening. Both of these horses clashed recently in a two mile handicap at Kempton, with Desert Sea coming out on top. Gala Evening is two pounds better off for a one and a half length defeat last time out, but made little impression on the winner that day and would be no certainty to reverse the form. Of the pair, Desert Sea is also the freshest. His victory in that class 2 race was his first run since September and thus he may still have more in reserve that Gala Evening, who has been mixing hurdling and flat racing, and has basically been kept on the go since October, with a mini break just before Christmas. He seems to be handling his racing well and has been finishing in and around the frame, so I will still have him, albeit at reduced stakes. Desert Sea could still be open to more improvement though, despite this 5 lb rise, he was second to the progressive Asker Tau last season over an indaequate trip, and he is my main bet, in a top heavy each-way bet. Desert Sea - 16/1 Blue Sq, 0.25 pt EW (1/4 odds, 4 places) & 0.25 pt win Gala Evening - 16/1 Paddypower, 0.25 pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup The chester cup is such a hard race to catch a winner from, well for me anyway, dont think ive ever had a chester cup winner, anyway am going to have a few bucks e/w on jim old's runner with R.Hughes in the saddle, the reason for this is R.Hughes seems to get a tune out him and his last 2 wins Hughes was doing the steering, ok that was over 2m and this is 2m 3f but he seems to have been warmed up for this race and my cash is going e/w. Its a tough race and your doing well if you pick the winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Chester Weds 6th May Selections etc in here please:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May My Mandy 1.45 Chester Another one i've kept an eye on since Doncaster and also from the same race as Cane Cat, Lady Lube Rye and Dispol Keasha with the latter 2 winning since and the former one running at Bath today. It looked awful in the parade ring at Doncaster, pulling for its head and frothing at the mouth yet the money still came for it and it finished a close 3rd, backing up the support for it and ridden by Jim Crowley. He was on board when it turned out again and finished 2nd last time out, racing alone on the rail and just fading near the finish. The main concern is the draw, history tells you that horses drawn low win this race, often from Stall 1 (check trends) but it is a smallish field of 9 horses and if it is the 16-1 expected price as on the RP site i'll be on it each way as it is a decent enough race with several previous winners lining up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May 315 Chester Green Manalishi Look at Green Manalishi's record at Chester under Kevin Ryan = 111. Within a couple of pounds last winning mark of 98 at Chester, won off 105 two years ago there too. Neil Callan was unceremoniously dumped off Amerigo in the big race by the one of the Coolmore wives, but could have the last laugh with the first of a feasible double (Kings Destiny in the next for Michael Jarvis). Positives = Multiple course winner, Distance winner, Jockey, winnable mark. Honestly, Johnny Murtagh before Neil Callan? She must be mental:moon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May will be difficult from stall 13 over 5f Diamond, thats the only reason i am not backing it tomorrow as its course record is excellent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May 2.15 CHESTER HIDDEN BRIEF (1m 3f, Class 1, Gd) Looks an intriguing listed race as usual. Chester should suit my notebook horse - Hidden Brief who can lead from the front & try to outpace these, however its a major step up in class & although it ran well at Sandown last time, this may go to one of the irish pair. I will have a small interest in my selection though as i was impressed last time out. HIDDEN BRIEF 4pts win @ 7/2 PP (GP) 4.00 CHESTER KINGS DESTINY (1m 4f, Class 3, Gd) Broke its maiden tag when winning at Lingfield in December but returned nicely to beat Thief of Time at Leicester 1st time up & should go well again. Bred to stay the trip & Trainer Jarvis has an enviable record here of 23.7% win to run ratio. KINGS DESTINY 4pts Win @ SP __________________ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Thanks for the input Bowles. One of the things that impresses me most about Callan is his ability to think laterally about the draw. Admittedly GMs three wins have been from 224 so I guess I'll be flying by the seat of my pants now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May 245 CARTE DIAMOND e/w I quite fancy Carte Diamond e/w here. Always an old favourite and a horse I desperately want to win for old time's sake. The distance is no problem, Tommy Eaves is one of the best jockeys in the business, 97 is a fair mark, was third and second in two appearances at Chester. Early price of 16/1 looks like my kind of value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May What a great card for a Wednesday afternoon. Really looking forward to it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Thanks for the input Bowles. One of the things that impresses me most about Callan is his ability to think laterally about the draw. Admittedly GMs three wins have been from 224 so I guess I'll be flying by the seat of my pants now. Horses have won from that wide draw before, especially 6f horses, but if the pace is too fast, may just be beyond the horse. I normally dont back anything drawn in top half at Chester however you never know.....plus it will be a better price cos of the draw! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Horses have won from that wide draw before' date=' especially 6f horses, but if the pace is too fast, may just be beyond the horse. I normally dont back anything drawn in top half at Chester however you never know.....plus it will be a better price cos of the draw![/quote'] Agree that you must back low drawn horses over the sprint trip here. I can't believe that a horse drawn outside the 1-6 stalls can win this, and I would go as far as to say the winner will be drawn in 1-4. No decent prices available but a short priced winner is better than a long priced loser. My advice is do not bet in the race unless your charge is drawn in one of the above stalls. Certainly not a race I would bet in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Draw biases are there to be broken. They just are. Sooner or later, high drawn horses will start winning and then people will start saying it's impossible to win from low draws. It's only a matter of time. If you're looking for a trend you will find it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Draw biases are there to be broken. They just are. Sooner or later' date=' high drawn horses will start winning and then people will start saying it's impossible to win from low draws. It's only a matter of time. If you're looking for a trend you will find it[/quote'] You obviously dont know Chester WW!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May I do, but people used to say the same about Doncaster. I tell you one thing. The first race, Archers Road and Star Rover are drawn 7 and 5 respectively. I would take those 2 against the field all day long Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May This is what Massey says: It is not surprising that horses with a low (inside) draw have an advantage in 5f races at Chester. The course is circular and horses starting on the inside have less distance to run and are less likely to meet trouble in running. It is surprising, however, that blindly backing low drawn horses is a profitable strategy. This is because 'everybody knows' that a low draw is an advantage at Chester and you would expect the odds to reflect this. In fact, the odds on offer for low drawn horses may be less than they would otherwise be, but they are not low enough to truly reflect the draw advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Not sure about that Walter, the dynamics of the course, the distance to the first turn from the 5f/6f starts makes life very tough for those drawn high. On other courses, draw bias is often over rated, most of the time it's down to pace. At Chester it's different though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May I do' date=' but people used to say the same about Doncaster. I tell you one thing. The first race, Archers Road and Star Rover are drawn 7 and 5 respectively. I would take those 2 against the field all day long[/quote'] Different type of race WW, 2yo races with 9 runners, Star rover should be ok from stall 5. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Not sure about that Walter, the dynamics of the course, the distance to the first turn from the 5f/6f starts makes life very tough for those drawn high. On other courses, draw bias is often over rated, most of the time it's down to pace. At Chester it's different though. So would you take the field against Star Rover and Archers Road in the 1st? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Different type of race WW, 2yo races with 9 runners, Star rover should be ok from stall 5. :ok Fair point, but still think Archers Road still has a huge chance and he's drawn 7. I understand there is a bias. But if you have shit horses in low draws and good horses in high draws, the good horses will still win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May So would you take the field against Star Rover and Archers Road in the 1st? There are only 9 runners, besides Star Rover isn't drawn wide. What price would I be getting the field? That's the deciding factor surely? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Fair point' date=' but still think Archers Road still has a huge chance and he's drawn 7. I understand there is a bias. But if you have shit horses in low draws and good horses in high draws, the good horses will still win[/quote'] This is the wrong race to discuss as there are only 9 runners. However in a 15/16 runner race, a 7lb better horse in 16 would not beat a horse drawn 1 off levels. No way, not around here. Maybe not even a stone better horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May There are only 9 runners, besides Star Rover isn't drawn wide. What price would I be getting the field? That's the deciding factor surely? Something like even money or maybe just odds against. Maybe 6/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Something like even money or maybe just odds against. Maybe 6/5 6/5 the field? Yes I would take that. But that decision is not based on draws. On form, at the weights, the Dwyer horse should be favourite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Fair enough. I brought this race up because someone stated earlier that in a 5f sprint they wouldn't back anything drawn higher than 4. I am merely making a point that I would, depending on a race. I am not going to not back a horse just because of where it is drawn. Obviously, I will take it's draw into account. But as long as the price reflects the draw then I'll stick with my fancy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup I've been looking at this from the point of view of 'class 2 handicap trends' that I've been working on and have a short list of six............ Gala Evening Desert Sea Som Tala Double Banded Downhiller Nemo Spirit It'll be a good test of my trends to see how they get on in such a competitive race. For final selections I'll take out Nemo Spirit (drawn wide) Gala Evening, Som Tala and Double Banded (trainers not in great form) That leaves me with 2 against the field of Desert Sea and Downhiller, both of which have decent draws and trainers in form. As a bonus (not part of the trends) they also both won last time out and both have won class 2 handicaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluenose Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May hi room any one up late to give me a yankee at chester for wedensday ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May Fair enough. I brought this race up because someone stated earlier that in a 5f sprint they wouldn't back anything drawn higher than 4. I am merely making a point that I would' date=' depending on a race. I am not going to not back a horse just because of where it is drawn. Obviously, I will take it's draw into account. But as long as the price reflects the draw then I'll stick with my fancy[/quote'] 4 or under is a bit excessive. I'm in the middle of a peice for my blog at the minute, I'll post it when done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May 4 or under is a bit excessive. I'm in the middle of a peice for my blog at the minute' date=' I'll post it when done.[/quote'] Ok mate. No doubt Star Rover and Archers Road will finish last and 2nd last after my over confidence in their abilities!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Chester Weds 6th May hi room any one up late to give me a yankee at chester for wedensday ? Yankee's are my favourite bet (partly due to nostalgia as once got a big win from one). I'll post one up in a bit for you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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