billy the punter Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup That's why Richard Hills is one of the best in the world That's why he gets plenty of outside rides. ;):loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup Trainer's horses absolutely flying more the case. But he's riding well, better than I was used to see him do in previous seasons. On a front runner or anything close up to the pace, he's pure class. True point about the stable though, can't do anything wrong at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup Amerigo just proved that the draw plays a part' date=' even over 2m2f.[/quote'] The middle to high numbers have dominated the race in the last 4-5 years though, so I think it has its advatages as well. As you say though, Amerigo was cost at least a place due to the wide draw :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup The 12-runner 5f handicap at 3.15... 1st Low (4) 2nd Low (1) 3rd Middle (6) Although they were effectively drawn 3,1,5 due to the N/R. Same every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup The 12-runner 5f handicap at 3.15... 1st Low (4) 2nd Low (1) 3rd Middle (6) Although they were effectively drawn 3,1,5 due to the N/R. Same every year. 4th was green manalishi drawn 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup 4th was green manalishi drawn 13 What you get for 4th in a 12-runner race? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup 4th was green manalishi drawn 13 It wasn't. It was the middle drawn Tornedos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup It is easy for everyone to see that having a high drawn horse at Chester is a huge disadvantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup It wasn't. It was the middle drawn Tornedos. My bad. By the way, your point about the 8/13 against Archers Road and Star Rover earlier. 13/2 on Star Rover was a complete insult. They should have been 3/1, therefore even money or just bigger for the field Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup Same every year. Just for this statistic I thought evens for the place on both market principals was a pretty generous offer. There was no way how both will be out of the frame really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup My bad. By the way' date=' your point about the 8/13 against Archers Road and Star Rover earlier. 13/2 on Star Rover was a complete insult. They should have been 3/1, therefore even money or just bigger for the field[/quote'] They weren't 3/1 though. In fact Star Rover was trading around 5/1 (Archers Road around 7/2) at the exact time we had the discussion last night. That's why your odds for the field were value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup -------------------------- 3.15 Chester - STRIKE UP THE BAND - 2.5pt win (7/2bog BlueSq) Should break in splendid isolation from the box stall in 1. Stall 2 is now empty, Good Gorsoon in 3 is a hold up horse. As mentioned previously, rightly or wrongly, I do place great stock in the draw bias at Chester - and it has paid dividends over the years. SUTB is able to run off a mark 8lb lower than his lto run on the AW at Lingfield, and he is undoubtedly better on turn than the AW. Given he led for much of the race before coming a 2L 4th on ground probably just on the firm side for him, he looks handily weighted here. Also going to have a sneaky ctc with Angus Newz and Sohraab. -------------------------- Phewww, damage reparation after my bets running like dawgs so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup Phewww' date=' damage reparation after my bets running like dawgs so far[/quote'] A nice return £69. My T/C comb worked out 1/6 :loon I gambled and had the Sohraab and Strike Up as saver casts only. I needed Tornedos to nab 3rd for a better win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup Phewww' date=' damage reparation after my bets running like dawgs so far[/quote'] Don't worry mate. You're not alone. More than 20 bets at Newmarket and Chester. Winners ... ZERO! P.S. Bring on November ... ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup Don't worry mate. You're not alone. More than 20 bets at Newmarket and Chester. Winners ... ZERO! P.S. Bring on November ... ;) Don't bring on November! This is the biggest winning day I've had in ages. The flat season is my game, I hate it when it gets put away for the winter!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted May 6, 2009 Author Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup Walter, I don't think the draw bias at Chester will ever fade out, because unless they re-work the track layout, it doesn't make sense for the trend to weaken. If you were to say to me that trends such as French breds don't win the Grand National or 4 yo don't win the Champion Hurdle (its something like that ain't it) then I could see where you'd be coming from if you said they were there to be broken. To all intents and purposes, those are trends based on coincidence, mainly. But the draw bias at Chester is down to common sense and the course configuration, it is a left handed track, so it pays to be drawn low, since the distance to the first bend is shorter than on the outside and front runners drawn low can get into a favoured position early. At Kempton and Beverley, because the course swings right-handed, horses drawn high are favoured on those tracks and, in that case, horses drawn low are forced wide turning the bends and are at a disadvantage when they straighten up. There are times when a horse that is seemingly poorly drawn will win, but there are valid excuses for this. If there is a lack of pace in the race then a horse from a wide draw can switch over to the rail unchallenged and still win. Of if a horse likes to be held up and swoop late, then it doesn't matter where it starts from, as it would have sat at the back of the pack through the early stages anyway. But in the main, I don't see the Chester draw bias reversing over the sprint distances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup Richard Hills on Asateer. :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup Richard Hills on Asateer. :eek I was sure you'd mention it after quite a few plaudits for him today :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup The 12-runner 5f handicap at 3.15... 1st Low (4) 2nd Low (1) 3rd Middle (6) Although they were effectively drawn 3,1,5 due to the N/R. Same every year. :ok I said to discount anything above 6 and the winner would probably be drawn 1-4. In big sprint fields, you cannot ignore this bias if you want to make a consistent profit. Yes, I'm sure a higher drawn horse can win one day but ignoring the lower drawn horses will not pay dividends. As alluded to though, the prices were so prohibitive due to the bias so it was a no bet for my EW betting style. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 6, 2009 Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup Talk about a merry go round of posts about the draw. Reading it back, we all said you have to be drawn low especially in big fields. We all then agreed the 1.45 wasnt a race affected by the draw as effectively 2yo's with 8 runners is likely to be no draw bias. If it had been 15 runners, the draw 1-6 would have come into play. Sometimes this place drives me.....:unsure nearly 80 posts for a weekday meeting though :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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