bowles10 Posted July 23, 2009 Author Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book a poor night on Monday at Windsor & not a bet snce 7.30 York (1m 2f, Class 1, Gd) Feature race on the evening card. Oaks 3rd HIGH HEELED drops down to listed class after recent 3rd at Haydock in the Lancashire Oaks behind Barshiba (won again since). This horse wont get an easier chance all season & the 2.5L behind Sariska in June is now looking excellent form. As a 3yo, the horse gets 10lb allowance from its elders & on ratings that puts High heeled at least 18lb in front of its nearest rival. Currently 5/4 fav with Paddy power, i cant see it getting any longer than that price. One of the older horses MEDICI PEARL has finally got some cut in the ground which i have been waiting for. Its highest winning mark is only 81 last september however personally i think the horse has improved & has now had 3 runs in the last 4 races at this track. I think the horse rated now 87 has the potential to run a big race coming off a fast pace in this type of field. Sweet Lily won this race last year but hasnt raced for 280 days which is a tall order to overcome. Ave won off 89 last time out & could have improvement in it. I am considering an EW bet on Medici pearl at 20/1 as although i rate 3 or 4 horses above it, there are a number of hold up horses in the race of which Medici Pearl is one of. This may help the horse in those final stages of the race. BET 200 - HIGH HEELED 8pts win @ 5/4 PP BET 201 - MEDICI PEARL 1pt ew @ 20/1 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 25, 2009 Author Share Posted July 25, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book a poor night on Monday at Windsor & not a bet snce 7.30 York (1m 2f, Class 1, Gd) BET 200 - HIGH HEELED 8pts win @ 5/4 PP :ok1st Evs BET 201 - MEDICI PEARL 1pt ew @ 20/1 PP Didnt see the race, but High Heeled did the business beating Ave & Sweet lily who i felt were the dangers. Medici Pearl only beat the 2 rags home in 6th. Back to handicap company for that one now. 10pts staked 18pts returned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 25, 2009 Author Share Posted July 25, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Avoided the dreaded Newmarket although Biniou winning last saturday broke my duck for the year! Concentrated on Ascot & York today but may have a look at the draw at Newcastle which always interests me. 2.00 Ascot (7f, Gd, Cl1 Listed) - MISSIONAIRE I dont often bet in 2yo races now but have this between the 2 Newmarket maiden winners Missionaire & Lamh Albaaser. I was always told to follow Newmarket maiden winners as its such a tough track to win on. This will be easier today for these 2, the latter will be a short price at around 7/4 but value bet could be missionaire at around 8/1 best price, as the form has stood up well from the maiden with the 2nd & 4th both winning next time out. BET 202 - MISSIONAIRE 1pt ew @ 8/1 Sporting bet 3.50 (7f, Cl2, Gd) Yet another of the usual hard Heritage hcaps to work out. Has to be between the 2 favourites for me in Captain Brilliance & Roaring Forte. Lots of horses have place chances including the PL horse DD, however these 2 could be group class horses & therefore has to be between the 2. You can get 5's on both, so may back to level stakes. Both are drawn in the higher numbers. Roaring forte likes to do it from the front & will be interesting to see where they go, i feel the middle of the course is probably the safest bet for a jockey when the race unfolds. I doubt they will go to the far side today. BET 203 - ROARING FORTE 5/1 Hills 3pts win BET 204 - CAPTAIN BRILLIANCE 5/1 Hills 3pts win York to follow.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 25, 2009 Author Share Posted July 25, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book York 3.10 (10f, Grp2, Gd) - KIRKLEES Godolphins Kirklees is the warm favourite & so it should be. Well placed by the trianer to pick up a listed event oon reappearance in uk after winter campaign in Dubai. This 10f trip seems to suit the horse well & Dettori rides the track excellent with a 50% SR on wins/places in last 5 years. 7/4 with hills looks a decent price for the fav. BET 204 - KIRKLEES 5pts win @ 7/4 Hills 3.45 (5f, Class 2, Gd) - PUSEY STREET LADY 5f class 2 heritage hcap, very difficult as these often run against each other! River Falcon was eye catching as usual on Monday at Ayr finishing late & likes this track having won here twice before. However 5 of its 6 wins have come with the word soft somewhere in the title & still 2lb higher than last win 2 years ago. Pusey Street lady drops down from higher class in which it ran creditably with 3 places from 5 runs this term. is a prominent horse & can be placed again, highest winning mark is 80 which is very low for a listed class horse, but was 2nd off 99 this term. 25/1 Paddy power is worth a small interest. BET 205 - PUSEY STREET LADY 1pt ew @ 25/1 Paddy power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 26, 2009 Author Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book will update results later, but Kirklees at 7/4 was an excellent price & made sure i had some returns on the day! I managed a bet on Conduit at the last minute but that wont count for this thread but is sitting in my account! Todays bets are as per the Ascot thread. Today, 12:45 #8 (permalink) bowles10 Trend Specialist Join Date: 07 Nov 2002 Location: Block NU, Loft Upper, W12 Age: 42 Posts: 18,183 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1 Re: Ascot - 26/7/09 Ascot 3.25 Looking at this race, i dont think it will take a lot of winning to be honest & REJECT is the one to be on. Ran a bit green on its debut (dwelt at the start) & then again on its 2nd run, but did finish 2nd on the 2nd run 3.5L behind the winner. On its next start, won a maiden at Hamilton by 5L bolting up at odds on. Crime writer was 3rd in that race & now runs frequently in handicaps off around 80 mark. Reject gets in here off 75 which is the same as when beaten at odds on in its handicap debut at Leicester. Not many horses start odds on in thier handicap debut & as we havent seen the horse for 43 days, i am assuming that a bit of time has been taken to ensure they pick the right race. Plenty of people may be around to recoup losses today as i expect the horse still have improvement & trainer Haggas does well here. REJECT 5pts win @ 9/2 Corals __________________ www.tip4profit.com bowles10View Public ProfileSend a private message to bowles10Find More Posts by bowles10Add bowles10 to Your Contacts Today, 13:02 #9 (permalink) bowles10 Trend Specialist Join Date: 07 Nov 2002 Location: Block NU, Loft Upper, W12 Age: 42 Posts: 18,183 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1 Re: Ascot - 26/7/09 5.10 Ive decided looking at the form a number of these need some form of cut in the ground. Sprinters can sometimes get back into form & maybe the likes of Tournedos may run well today. The one i am following today is THE JOBBER. I keep missing the horse as there is always one i like in front of it. Today however, the conditions are fine, its recent form is excellent, it ran an excellent race at Newmarket last time out & although prefers an uphill track (Newm & Sandown), Ascot has a few contours to overcome & this one will be finishing stands side where there is loads of room to run on into with the field expected to run down the middle again like yesterday. Its only 3lb higher than its last win & has an excellent apprentice on board today taking off a handy 5lb. THE JOBBER 2pts ew @ 20/1 >Bet365 __________________ www.tip4profit.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 26, 2009 Author Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book its happened to me again today with Judge n Jury winning the last race at a tasty 14/1. I made a good case for it 2 weeks ago only to be beaten into 4th losing the ew on the line. Dismissed it today due to the fact the ground had gone against it? They said it was G/Firm, the horse has figures of 7,0,0,2,4,7 on G/firm ground, its 6 turf wins all had the word soft in the title & figures of 1,0,4,1,2,1,4,1,1 in the soft. I know it rained PM today but it wasnt heavy rain & surely didnt change the ground. Looking at the above, would you back the horse on G/Frim ground? Surely not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book its happened to me again today with Judge n Jury winning the last race at a tasty 14/1. I made a good case for it 2 weeks ago only to be beaten into 4th losing the ew on the line. Dismissed it today due to the fact the ground had gone against it? They said it was G/Firm' date=' the horse has figures of 7,0,0,2,4,7 on G/firm ground, its 6 turf wins all had the word soft in the title & figures of 1,0,4,1,2,1,4,1,1 in the soft. I know it rained PM today but it wasnt heavy rain & surely didnt change the ground. Looking at the above, would you back the horse on G/Frim ground? Surely not?[/quote'] I was there yesterday and the description was good. Having watched the first race I thought the ground looked dead. After the first race Katie Walsh (after riding the 2nd) said the ground was slighltly easier than good, on the way towards good/soft - somewhere in the middle I suppose. So I was surprised to see the going described as good/firm on the straight course this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book I was there yesterday and the description was good. Having watched the first race I thought the ground looked dead. After the first race Katie Walsh (after riding the 2nd) said the ground was slighltly easier than good, on the way towards good/soft - somewhere in the middle I suppose. So I was surprised to see the going described as good/firm on the straight course this morning. something has to be done about this though, i completely dismissed all the soft ground horses in the card yesterday believing it was fast ground. No doubt they got a bit of water on it before the Saturday card, but the rain didnt come until mid afternoon yesterday & it wasnt heavy rain. Might have to email the clerk of the course for his comment? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Round up since last Monday Bet 195 - Fullandby 2.5pts ew 16/1 - lost Bet 196 - Doc Jones 1pt ew 25/1 - lost Bet 197 - Evelyn May 1pt ew 16/1 - lost Bet 198 - Anacreon 1pt win 17/2 - lost Bet 199 - Dancers Legacy 1pt ew 20/1 - lost Bet 200 - High Heeled 8pts win 5/4 - 1st (+10pts) Bet 201 - Medici pearl 1pt ew 20/1 - lost Bet 202 - Missionaire 1pt ew @ 8/1 - lost Bet 203 - Roaring Forte 3pts win @ 5/1 - lost Bet 204 - Captain Brilliance 3pts win 5/1 - lost Bet 205 - Kirklees 5pts win 7/4 - 1st (+8.75pts) Bet 206 - Pusey Street lady 1pt ew 25/1 - lost Bet 207 - Reject 5pts win 9/2 - lost Bet 208 - The Jobber 2pts ew 20/1 - lost another difficult week, mostly littered with big priced e/w chances (too many!). 2 wins on 2 good fav's though. P/L update will follow later. End of the month looming so a big effort needed to get back into profit for this month. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.00 Yarmouth (6f, Class6 sell stakes, G/F) - NOW LOOK WHO'S HERE I never ever look at these races, however bumped into someone on saturday who advised me that McMahon had a winner at Sandown the other day which was a long trip down but the horse was well backed & duly won. On the same day, they had another 2yo beaten a nk at Doncaster at 14/1. So noticeably in this race, Now Looks Who's here could be worth looking at. Bred by the excellent sprinter Kyllachy, you know the horse will have speed. 1st race of its life may be a concern. Any money may be significant, but Betfred go 16/1 although a guaranteed price with PP at 14/1 if you prefer. It is also drawn high which is normally favoured here. BET 209 - NOW LOOK WHO's HERE 1.5pts ew @ 16/1 Betfred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 7.45 Windsor (6f, Cl4, Gd, G/s) - GENTLE GURU Probably the most open hcap on the night. I have a lay thread highlighting 3yo's poor showing against older horses & again i go against them here, which leaves only 3 horses. However, the 5yo Gentle Guru has a career record of 20 runs 4 wins, 6 places, so 50% SR for wins/places. On ground listed with the word "soft" in the title, its record is 1-0-2-2-6-1-8-1-2, so 6 in 9 runs making that a positive with 66% SR for wins & places. Also 3 of its 4 career wins have come with cut in the ground. The distance is not an issue with wins at this distance. it also has course form with 2 places from 3 starts here. Its 2lb higher than its best win but take into account the horse ran in a class1 race back in April (outclassed but only beaten 6L to look busy & this was on fast ground which isnt favourable). 3 of its 4 wins have come in either July (1) or August (2). BET 210 - GENTLE GURU 2pts ew @ 11/1 with >Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book P/L updated July Total Total bets 65 Wins / bets 4/29 EW / Bets 3/26 Places 0/1 Forecasts 0/3 Tricasts 1/5 Doubles 0/1 Total bets 6/65 SR 9.23% Staked 198.40pts Returns 117.12pts P/L -81.28pts Yield -40.95% Overall total Total bets 210 Wins / bets 21/107 EW/ Bets 23/86 Places 0/2 Doubles 1/4 Forecasts 0/4 Tricasts 1/5 Multliples 0/2 Total bets 46/210 SR 21.90% Staked 712.4pts Returns 675.07pts P/Lpts -37.33pts Yield -5.24% Personally feel a bit hard done by this month with previous horses backed The Nifty Fox 11/4, Judge n Jury 14/1 & Knot in wood 9/1 all winning next time out in the last week. Just followng those 3 would have put me back in profit. Just shows that when you do the work, it is worth keeping an eye out in the future. Goodwood awaits & Ryan Moore is the man to follow for me. He has at least 4 good rides tomorrow & i may be just following in multiples rather than my usual singles for the next 2 days at least as i am away working. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.10 (class2, 1m 2f, Gd) For me the horse with the form to look at is Australia Day whose win at Sandown is holding up well now with the 3rd place that day Shamali winnng twice since, the latest being an easy win at ascot yesterday. If the horse can tank along from the front here, it should at least place. Lang Shining flopped here last year & perhaps the horse still has a race in it especially after recent attempts in better company. Bet 211 - Australia Day 2pts win 11/1 >Bet365 (BOG) 2.45 (1m4f, Group3, Gd) Harbinger was tipped up to me the other week & after a great showing at Chester, the horse steps up to Group company in typical Stoute fashion. Harbinger 15/8 Bet365 (BOG) 3.25 (grp 2, 7f, Gd) Main Aim was badly hampered in the July Cup at Newmarket & can gain compensation here over its preferred trip of 7f. Should make up a double on the day for Stoute & Moore. Main Aim 6/4 Bet365 (BOG) Bet 212 - Harbinger/Main Aim 6pts win double with bet365 at prices above Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Australia Day was disappointing in the end, Harbinger looks a nice horse & pity my double went tits up on fav Main Aim. A losing day which was annoying after Harbinger drifted out to a much more backable price in the end. Weds at Goodwood 4.00 (12f, Cl2, Gd) HIGHLAND GLEN Won its maiden by 7L with another 6L to the 3rd horse back in May over 10f at Lingfield on turf. Stepped up for its hcap debut over 12f off OR 89 in a class 2 event at Ascot finishing a never nearer 6th place. Ran at Royal Ascot over 12f again, & again ended up 6th but noticeably finished well. There's a word around about this horse & i wouldnt be surprised if there is decent money for it on the day. Ryan Moore rides. HIGHLAND GLEN 4pts ew @ 8/1 Bet 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 29, 2009 Author Share Posted July 29, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 8.05 (1m 1f, Cl5, Gd) LUCK WILL COME Luck will come has been a model of consistency this season which reflects its overall record of 14 wins/places in 22 starts. This season 1 win & 3 places from 6 starts. Stamina is requied here with the 3f uphill finish & i always look for horses that stay slightly further. The horses record over 10f is 1 win, 1 place from 4 starts, so happy that the horse has some form over that trip as this 9f trip is unusual as not many courses cover that distance. The ground is ok for the horse & probably the quicker the better. Although the horse has never won off this mark, the excellent apprentice takes off a handy 5lb off the top weight. 3pts win @ 11/2 with Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 29, 2009 Author Share Posted July 29, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book bit late but :hope for a winner 8.35 STRATHCAL 1lb higher mark as when beaten into 2nd by Alan Brooke here last month. Previously won 2 races & should be ok with the trip at 1m 6f. Last time out was well ahead of a spread out field & can go close tonight 3pts win @ 11/4 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 29, 2009 Author Share Posted July 29, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Highland Glen didnt make it into the stalls today which was a pity as it was well backed to 9/2 from 8's tonights 2 bets were both placed, Luck will come (aptly named) was beaten a shd in a photo & Strathcal was 3rd unable to cope with the late run of the winner. Back to 1m4f & Strathcal will be a winner again i am sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 29, 2009 Author Share Posted July 29, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book This is for Friday Taken from my trends thread. 3.25 (1m, Class2, Gd) - CLOUDY START key trends 4yo's - 6 out of 12 4yo-5yo - 9 out of 12 above 8st 6lb - 10 out of 12 above 9st 5lb - 5 out of 12 draw above 16 - 10 out of 12 14/1 SP or lower 12 out of 12 Fav 2 out of 12 2 or more runs this season 12 out of 12 placed or won during season 12 out of 12 The stats i like about this race are the following: 2+ runs 100% placed or won 100% 14/1 SP or lower 100% Taking those 3 into account, Cloudy start 8/1 draw 21 Acrostic 7/1 draw 6 Extraterrestial 9/1 draw 20 Spectait 12/1 draw 16 Dubais touch 14/1 draw 5 Kavachi 10/1 draw 19 Marajaa 10/1 draw 18 I have listed the draw as you can see 10 of last 12 have won from a high stall 16 or above, this is very significant stat as it keeps happening. The last 2 winners both drawn 20. Roger Charlton won both the last 2 runnings of this & i am pretty certain that they were both Abdullah owned at the time. CLOUDY START has all the boxes ticked for me & looks to be an improving 3yo & is also owned by Abdullah. Will be risky to only select one horse but wil cover EW as well Gets a 6lb allowance for weight for age against its elders & although i have shown that backing 3yo's in handicaps leads to the poor house, Cecil has a knack of placing horses the right way. Should have no probs with the trip & is drawn really well. Wasnt beaten much last time out after decent wins at kempton & Epsom CLOUDY START 5pts ew @ 8/1 Corals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Bowles, haven't you been following Blue Jack this season? I know for sure you were on it at Bath several months ago, and think you may have backed it on one of the Windsor mondays since? Won at 9/1 in the last at Goodwood today, 16's was avail 30 mins before the off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 30, 2009 Author Share Posted July 30, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Cloudy start now 7/1 with Bet365 I am also going to chuck in the 2 following bets 2.45 Goodwood (6f, Cl2, Gd) - PETER ISLAND I havent found many bets yet this week but Peter Island is in my notebook especially after running only 4.5L behind High Standing who has since won at Royal Ascot & then again in a grp 3 at Newbury. Peter Island has won here previously winning off oR 75 over 6f. The horse is still 4lb higher than best win however i think there is a big race left in the tank & i was hoping to see it at this meeting. Was entered for the Stewards cup but wont get into that race off this mark. PETER ISLAND 1pt ew @ 28/1 Bet365 5.45 Goodwood (5f, Cl3, Gd) GREEN BERET Was an unlucky loser at newmarket last time out when squeezed on the rail for room inside the final furlong, still managed 4th & runs off same mark. personally i think the horse could have won that day & in this smaller field should get the gaps it needs. This is a definitely a better horse than this company. GREEN BERET 4pts win @ 10/3 Stan James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 30, 2009 Author Share Posted July 30, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Bowles' date=' haven't you been following Blue Jack this season? I know for sure you were on it at Bath several months ago, and think you may have backed it on one of the Windsor mondays since? Won at 9/1 in the last at Goodwood today, 16's was avail 30 mins before the off.[/quote'] I have missed it every time it bloody won. I did tip it up at the beginning at Bath, well remembered!. I wasnt surprised it won today but i havent got into Goodwood this year at all, but :hope my luck will change on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 31, 2009 Author Share Posted July 31, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 7.50 Haydock (6f, Cl4, Gd to sft) DOC JONES I backed this at Windsor 2 weeks ago & felt it ran well on the evening to finish 3L 5th behind Olynard. Run off same mark but the apprentice has a 5lb claim so hopefully that may do the trick to get into the places. The 6f course is described as gd to sft with the main course heavy (not sure why as i thought the straight was the straight!) The horse has only ran once on this type of ground but was 2nd on its debut. The horse won off 72 & i think with the 5lb claim, it can go close in this contest. 1pt ew 14/1 >Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted August 1, 2009 Author Share Posted August 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Doc Jones was 2nd at 10/1, so at least some money back on a poor day!! Start of a new Month today (will update July figures over the weekend) A couple of bets in the 1st race for me at Goodwood 1.55 Goodwood (11f, Cl3, Gd) Jedi looked ok at the trip last time at Chester but has to race off 83 here which still may be too high. A fast pace may suit this one to come from behind. Any further rain will suit also. Thin Red Line is closely matched on a form line with Jedi, so its those 2 for me against the field. Jedi @ 6/1 Bet365 (bog) 2pts win Thin red line @ 17/2 (Bet365 bog) 1pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted August 1, 2009 Author Share Posted August 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Poor race that one, decided to play on Rainbow View now in the Nassau Stakes. 3.05 Goodwood (10f, Grp1, Good?) - RAINBOW VIEW 3.05 I would love to think Rainbow View could finally fulfill its promise & win a Grp 1 event. 10f perhaps could be the ultimate distance & any rain wouldnt affect it. The 3yo allowance of 9lb is swaying me towards either Midday or Rainbow View. Rainbow view would be preferred if there is more rain. Conditions are definitely going to RV's favour with the rain falling. If the horse stays 10f, we could be in business. Midday didnt like the heavy ground last time out & although it isnt heavy here, the 1st race was 6secs slower than standard. 3yo's have dominated this race with 13 winners in last 16 years. 5pts win @ 4/1 >Hills still available Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted August 1, 2009 Author Share Posted August 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book It is now SOFT at Goodwood 2 more today away from Goodwood 4.55 DONCASTER (10f, Cl5, Gd/sft) - OUTRAGEOUS REQUEST The combination of the Eddery brothers can strike here & pick up its 1st maiden win. 2nd last time out at Windsor just failing a nk behind a stoute newcomer & in front of Putra One from Jarvis' stable. They were 7L clear of the 4th that day & Putra Once has since won next time out. Trooping the colour is the danger. 7/2 Bet365 (bog) 2pts win 3.30 THIRSK (1m, Cl5, Gd/sft) Those that will like the ground are Boy Blue, Keys of Cypprus, Moheeb, Observatory star & Nevada Desert. Taking each one in turn, Boy Blue has never won off this mark & has no course form. Keys of cyprus goes up 3lb for latest win but will be therabouts again today, sseems to suit 1m now. Mohheeb has only won off a mark of 70 so off 78 today will be a tough task, 4 of its 5 wins were on soft or heavy ground, so ground will suit well, 1 course run but down the field. Observatory star is 3lb higher than when winning this last year & will like the ground bidding for a repeat win. Nevada desert is now 9yo, has run well at the track before & last win this time year was off 6lb higher than today, normally wins at least once a season. 2 bets OBSERVATORY STAR 1pt ew @ 11/1 Betfred NEVADA DESERT 0.5pts ew @ 33/1 Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted August 1, 2009 Author Share Posted August 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Stewards Cup 3.40 Goodwood (6f, Class2, sft) I have 2 main fancies both drawn high but the way the jocks decided to come stands side in the last race is a worry for those drawn high. The 2 i liked were Striking spirit & Sonny red both are ok on the softer surface although more favourable for Sonny Red. I will still back both but need something on the near side for some cover, have been looking at Fishforcompliments & Barney McGrew. Barney McGrew is a 6yo so doesnt fit into my trends for 4-5yo's winning but has been running consistently well all season & runs well in big fields. FforC will lead & in stall 1 may have the ideal rail position. STRIKING SPIRIT 20/1 PP 1pt ew SONNY RED 10/1 PP 1pt ew BARNEY MCGREW 25/1 Hills 0.5pts ew FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS 33/1 Hills 0.5pts ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted August 1, 2009 Author Share Posted August 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book A poor start to the month today & continuing the poor run of form i am currently in. I am getting close with a few but not hitting the back of the net. Take the stewards cup, of 3 i found in my trends page, i went with only striking spirit in this thread with 3 others as cover. My other 2 trends selections were 1st & 5th @ 16/1 & 25/1. List of bets since last Monday up to end of July Bet 209 - Now Look who's here 1.5pts ew 16/1 - unpl Bet 210 - Gentle Guru 2pts ew 11/1 - unpl Bet 211 - Australian DAy 2pts win 11/1 - unpl Bet 212 - Harbinger / Main Aim 6pts win double - 1st & unpl Bet 213 - Luck will come 3pts win 11/2 - 2nd Bet 214 - Strathcall 3pts win 11/4 - 3rd Bet 215 - Cloudy start 5pts ew 8/1 - unpl Bet 216 - Peter Island 1pt ew 28/1 - unpl Bet 217 - Green Beret 4pts win 10/3 - 3rd Bet 218 - Doc Jones 1pt ew @ 14/1 - 2nd (+2.8pts) August Bet 219 - Jedi 2pts win 6/1 - unpl Bet 220 - Thin Red Line 1pt win 17/2 - unpl Bet 221 - Rainbow View 5pts win 4/1 - 2nd Bet 222 - Observatory Star 1pt ew 10/1 - 3rd (+1pt) Bet 223 - Nevada Desert 0.5pts ew 33/1 - unpl Bet 224 - Outrageous request 2pts win 7/2 - 4th Bet 225 - Strking spirit 1pt ew 22/1 - unpl Bet 226 - Sonny Red 1pt ew 10/1 - unpl Bet 227 - Fishforcompliments 0.5pts ew 33/1 - unpl Bet 228 - Barney Mcgrew 0.5pts ew 25/1 - unpl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted August 1, 2009 Author Share Posted August 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Updated totals up to end of July July Total Total bets 75 Wins / bets 4/33 EW / Bets 4/31 Places 0/1 Forecasts 0/3 Tricasts 1/5 Doubles 0/2 Total bets 9/75 SR 12% Staked 237.40pts Returns 121.92pts P/L -115.48pts Yield -48.64% Overall total Total bets 220 Wins / bets 21/111 EW/ Bets 24/91 Places 0/2 Doubles 1/5 Forecasts 0/4 Tricasts 1/5 Multliples 0/2 Total bets 47/220 SR 21.36% Staked 751.4pts Returns 679.87pts P/Lpts -71.53pts Yield -9.51% My worst month so far & a big loss. Following up on horses such as Knot in Wod, Judge n Jury etc would have pulled me back a great deal but i failed to back both :$. Goodwood wasnt glorious for me & when i found a winner i doubled it up with a loser :$ Not sure how i will approach the next month as i made a poor start today with a number of losers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted August 1, 2009 Author Share Posted August 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 7.40 HAMILTON (11f, Class6, G/sft) - DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN Fahey can take the 7.40 with Dontpaytheferryman who won off 112 over the sticks & loves soft ground. Its rating of 51 on the flat can be taken advantage of with this apprentice claiming another 3lb. 9/4 Paddy Power 3pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted August 1, 2009 Author Share Posted August 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Dontpaytheferryman was 3rd 9.10 Hamilton (9f, Cl5, G/sft) NAOMH GEILIES Waited until the last race for this months first nap of the day, Johnston has had winners all week & in Naomh Gelieis, he can strike again. This horse has been dropped down into class 5 after coming 4th in a group 3 race at 2!! Hasnt figured since on 4 AW starts but now back on turf could be too good for these. A rating of 75 looks ideal to make an impact & Johnston strike rate here is the best of all these trainers. 10/1 Padd yPower 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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