bowles10 Posted June 20, 2009 Author Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book As well as Asset, i will have these: 2.30 Ascot (7f, Cl1, G/F) BEETHOVEN Could this be the easiest race on the card to work out with those that figure high in the betting ? See stats below Last 10 years (position in betting) 1,2,J2,2,J3,1,_,1,1,2 so 4 favs have won, & 5 horses either 2nd or 3rd in the betting out of 10 races. Current betting is in our favour with prices as follows: Beethoven 11/2 (+.5pts) Emperor Claudius 6/1 (+1pt) Honor in Peace 8/1 (+3pts) Shakespearian 8/1 (+3pts) Aerodynamic 9/1 (+4pts) Backing all 5 would secure a profit off level stakes (shown in brackets) Johnston has won it 3 times in the last 10 years but Shakespearians form of its win isnt working out too well judging by the placed horses next race. I prefer Beethoven of the 2 irish horses based on performances behind the same animal Love Lockdown who has beaten both to date. This leaves the american horse who is stepping up from 5 to 7f which isnt ideal in my book. Aerodynamic from Pat Eddery stable could be interesting & the best of the home party & is bred to stay further & will be worth looking at in the future once stepped up. BET 117 - BEETHOVEN 5pts win @ 11/2 Skybet (free bet) 3.05 ASCOT (1m 4f, Grp2, G/F) DOCTOR FREEMANTLE Mixture of ages winning this, so dont discount any age groups, my overall conclusion for the race is that it suits high class middle distance runners & from the Derby last year, Doctor Freemantle's 4th palce stands out as excellent form. Its 8th in the St Leger was on unsuitable ground & it scraped out a group win at Chester in May this year on reappearance. I do like Enroller but i think the horse would need it softer to have any impact on these fast ground horses. Godolphin cant be trusted in Group races & although Campaignologist won here last year over C/D in a Group 2, I dont think it will beat the fav. Of the outsiders, only Steele Tango has any form to get in the top 5. If i had a decent wedge today to place on a horse, Doctor Freemantle would be it. BET 118 - DOCTOR FREEMANTLE 10pts win @ 7/4 PaddyPower 3.45 Ascot (6f, Grp1, G/F) STRIKE THE DEAL Strike the deal is a horse i have championed thsi season & 40/1 is a bit of an insult to me, ok its group runs have resulted in 53192259549544 however it is a consistent group horse & it has had a good prep i feel for this race & we havent seen the best of it yet. Lesson in Humility is another lovely horse & very gutsy performer having finished in last 8 runs either 1st or 2nd on 7 occasions. its latest grp 3 win proved it could mix it with the big boys. BET 119 - STRIKE THE DEAL 3pts win @ 46.0 Betfair & 2pts place @ 9.0 Betfair Interesting to see the amount of winners that came from a run in the Kings stand 4 days previous. The american horse Cannonball is the only one this year to try this feat & must be consdiered after a decent run on Tuesday to finish 6th. 2 other bets in this race also BET 120 - LESSONS IN HUMULITY 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 Paddy power BET 121 - CANNONBALL 0.5pts ew @ 20/1 Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 20, 2009 Author Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Just added Enroller for 2pts win @ 14/1 Paddy power just in case !!! Will be gutted if it won as its in my notebook. Dont know why DR F is driftig, thats a great price now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 20, 2009 Author Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book a few ew returns today but 1 final ascot bets 5.00 Road to love, likes it here & now 2lb lower than last win. Johnston also has to be respected in this type of race. Boz, trained by Cumani who had only 3 runners at Ascot prior to this one, will like the ground & still has a bit of scope to win a decent race. 1pt ew on both @ 20/1 & 12/1 respectively at Paddy Power (GP) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book :clap:clap with Asset and Cannonball Rob. Will sort everything out with regard to DD tomorrow I expect as I'm off to work shortly. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 20, 2009 Author Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Final day of Ascot, was very disappointed with Dr Freemantle & also the fact i had a big bet on the horse! I felt there would be an upset in the Gp 1 Golden Jubilee & happy to get the 2nd & 3rd at nice odds, Strike the deal ran ok to finish around 6th or 7th. A few get too carried away about these foreign sprinters & they dont have such a great record in this one. I thought i had it right when Frankie burst up the far rail with Asset, unfortunately, ryan moore followed him & done him in last 50 yards. In the 5.00 race, i backed a Johnston horse & he won the race, pity it was with another Drill saregent who looked magnificently well turned out. Days totals 32pts staked 25.12pts returned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 21, 2009 Author Share Posted June 21, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Updated totals Firstly Royal Ascot 20 bets Wins 1/5 EW 6/15 Total 7/20 1 winner @ 3/1 placed horses at 33/1 (3 times!), 20/1, 14/1 & 10/1 Staked 76pts Returns 58.07pts P/L -17.93pts June Total Total bets 44 Wins / bets 4/18 EW/ Bets 8/25 Doubles 0/0 Forecasts 0/1 Total bets 12/44 SR 27.27% Staked 169pts Returns 144.79pts P/L -24.21pts Yield -14.32% Overall total Total bets 124 Wins / bets 14/66 EW/ Bets 19/55 Doubles 1/2 Forecasts 0/1 Total bets 34/124 SR 27.41% Staked 477pts Returns 454.58pts P/Lpts -22.42pts Yield -4.70% If i had stuck to my guns at RA, i would have had a bet on Mastercraftsman but swerved due to the price. Happy to land 3 x 33/1 places although only for small money. Asset would have made the week a winning one if it had held on. Onwards & upwards, despite being in a loss at present, its a small one & i have survived a difficult week with only a small loss. The SR is still holding up around 27% so i know things are going the right way, just need to hit more winners as the SR just for winners is lower at 21% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book My heart was in my mouth when Asset broke through in the last furlong, some nice each way money nonetheless. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 22, 2009 Author Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Today, 19:27 #5 (permalink) bowles10 Trend Specialist Join Date: 07 Nov 2002 Location: Block NU, Loft Upper, W12 Age: 42 Posts: 17,729 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1 Re: Windsor 22nd June (Eve) 9.10 1m 3f Hannon does very well here & could surprise with CAYMAN SKY. Runs off 65 tonight, this horse has yet to win a race but showed enough on latest start to get 2nd behind runaway winner that night. Runs in blinkers again & a repeat of its 3rd place effort back here in April could see it go closer tonight. In same race, URBAN SPACE went down by a nk here 2 weeks ago & although that was in a claiming race, i would take a small interest in this one at a big price. is only 3lb higher than its only win. 7.40 DESERT ICON ran in a Group 2 contest last season at Goodwood but pulled up lame, only start this season was at Kempton 2 weeks ago where it clearly needed the run before finishing 7th. Won over C/D last year & looks a value price tonight with 3 places. 8.10 DONCOSAQUE is another big price potentially with a chance tonight. Has won off a higher mark than this & has had plenty of racing for a 3yo - 18 runs but has won or place din 50% of them. Had the following bet for a small play tonight 1pt singles on all 4 to win 0.5pt trixies to win x 2 bets which accounts for the 2 in the same race 8pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 22, 2009 Author Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book blimey a 20/1 winner tonight, suppose i'll celebrate on my todd then :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana URBAN SPACE 20/1 1st Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Good work Bowles' :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book I read this thread and didnt even see it :loon Congrats - You should change your name to The Monday Night Windsor maestro. Thats 2 biggies at Windsor now isnt it ? :notworthy:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 22, 2009 Author Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book I read this thread and didnt even see it :loon Congrats - You should change your name to The Monday Night Windsor maestro. Thats 2 biggies at Windsor now isnt it ? :notworthy:notworthy yeah i was just having a bit of fun with that comment! Windsor seems to be a bit lucky for me as i had hordago last year at 40's also Pity it was just a small bet tonight! I took 16's with PP so get the 20's on thier Guaranteed price. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book That's a good winner for you yesterday :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 23, 2009 Author Share Posted June 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 8pts staked yesterday 21pts returned from the 1 winner Tonight Been looking at the 9.00 race, considering this is Newbury its a pretty poor standard sprint, the sort you would expect at a lesser track just trying to tick a few boxes, main characteristics of each horse are: Requisite - 4 wins from 21 runs, wins: 2 AW, 2 turf, never won on fast ground, never won with an apprentice on board (0-1) Don Pele - 8 wins from 62 runs, wins: 4AW, 4 turf, 1lb lower than Jan win on AW, 3 of 4 wins came on fast ground Pic up sticks - 8 wins from 89 runs, all wins on turf, last 4 over 5f, 6 of 8 wins in higher company, 7 of 8 wins came on fast ground, 7 of 8 wins came within 18 days or less of previous run (15 days since last run!) The magic blanket - 3 wins from 18 runs, all wins on AW, never won higher than class 6 company. Bluebok - 7 wins from 77 runs, 6 turf, 1aw, all turf wins on fast ground. No jockey has won on horse more than once, Keniry rode it last time & again tonight! Triple dream - 0 wins from 11. Jockey Steve Drowne responsible for best 2 efforts, rides again tonight. Brandywell boy - 4 wins from 70, 3 on AW, last turf win 4 years ago. 2nd in 20% of its starts (14-70). trainer has 21% win rate here. Is it time - 2 from 18 runs,.both on AW, no form on fast ground Tiger trail - 0 from 11. Only raced once over 5f. Trivia - never raced over 5f. Leads from the front. 2 wins from 26 over 7f & 9f. Jockey chalmers has never ridden the horse before. Metropolitan chief - 1 win in 29. Only raced once over 5f, races mainly on AW. Apprentice is related to trainer jeff pearce & has never ridden the hsore before. Louies lad - no wins from 14. D probert keeps the ride after recent 2nd place. Best efforts at brighton, different track to this flat track. On reflection, there is more rubbish than i thought in the race. I have it between Pic up sticks & Don Pele, so will back both to see what happens. 5f, G/F, Class 5 BET 131 - Pic up sticks 6/1 skybet 3pts win BET 132 - Don pele 7/1 skybet 1pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Good winner last night Rob:clap......stunning price too. Can't say I'm too gutted about tonights result though as I had the winner:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 23, 2009 Author Share Posted June 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Thanks Russ:ok Brandywell boy & Triple dream were the only other 2 positives i had in the race so could have had the 1-2-3 from 4 really. The trainers SR was impressive, & steve drowne riding the 2nd also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 25, 2009 Author Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 4.00 Newcastle I cant get away from following Markington for its hat trick today, the 5lb the claimer gets is invaluable & although this is its toughest start yet, i can see it going very close again 3.5 taken on BF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 25, 2009 Author Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 4.00 Newcastle I cant get away from following Markington for its hat trick today, the 5lb the claimer gets is invaluable & although this is its toughest start yet, i can see it going very close again 3.5 taken on BF great ride by claimer Carson coming down the outside, stake was 5pts win, forgot to add it :$ as PC was running so slow, i nearly didnt get it posted in time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 26, 2009 Author Share Posted June 26, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Newcastle 7.25 Gosforth Park H'cap 5f Class 2 (GF) Last years winner Buachail Dona goes for a repeat win off 2lb higher than last years success. Runner up Hamish McGonagall has another attempt to beat it. Hamish is actually 10lb worse off with Nicholls runner, so i cant see that beating it, especially with Dona having a better draw also. Dona won from stall 2 last year & it will be interesting if anyone tracks to the far rail as no one did yesterday. With Captain Dunne in stall 1, that side could be interesting as that one loves to blaze a trail over 5f & was unlucky at Epsom LTO. Green Manalishi would have a chance as has won off higher, has a good draw & has a claimer on board (Amy Ryan). I have taken the 5.0 for a place on Betfair which i think is excellent value. Northern Fling is now 9lb lower than last win which was over 5f in April 08, but hasnt hit those heights since, however Nicholls is known to get them back. Bets Bet 134 Green Manalishi 5pts Place @ 5.00 >Betfair Bet 135 Buachaill Dona 16.0 >Betfair 2pts win Bet 136 Northern Fling 16/1 Paddy Power 1pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 26, 2009 Author Share Posted June 26, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book a touch of the nears with BD 2nd in the 7.25 narrowly beaten. 8.55 Newcastle (6f, Cl5, G/F) MISS DAAWE has a high draw which is essential at this meeting, races prominently & has gone well before for this apprentice. Won off a 5lb higher mark last year. bet 137 - MISS DAAWE 1pt ew @ 16/1 Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 27, 2009 Author Share Posted June 27, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book No luck last night & a 10pt loss overall on the night Havent got much time today so basic reasoning only today Newcastle 2.05 Fullandby (6f, Grp3, Soft) Has a bit to find with some of these but the easier conditions could be a leveller. Knows its game well & notably seems to win in Jun or July, so well worth following from now. 5 of 7 turf wins have come on softish ground. BET 138 - FULLANDBY 1pt EW @ 9/1 Paddy power Chester 4.55 Seek & destroy (7f, Cl3, G/F) Course may suit this front runner & can get toi the rail from stall 3. Has to prove it can win of this mark but not disgraced last time out so another chnace well worth trying. BET 139 - SEEK & DESTROY 3pts win @ 14/5 Sporting bet Newmarket 2.20 Curtains (6f, Class1, G/S) Has had 5 runs now this season & showed last time out the step up to class 1 company wasnt beyond it with a 5th in the Albany at Ascot. Could well nick another place today. BET 140 - CURTAINS 1pt ew @ 14/1 Stan James Newcastle 3.45 Horatio Carter (7f, Cl 2, Soft) Key to this race will be the ground & obviously i have shown over the last few days than a low draw is a big negative. Horatio carter was beaten at this course last year by The Oesteopath, who won here on Thursday. Wont be inconvenienced by the ground either. Is still 10lb higher than last win. BET 141 - HORATIO CARTER 3pts win @ 9/2 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 28, 2009 Author Share Posted June 28, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Newcastle 2.05 Fullandby (6f, Grp3, Soft) BET 138 - FULLANDBY 1pt EW @ 9/1 Paddy power Unpl Chester 4.55 Seek & destroy (7f, Cl3, G/F) BET 139 - SEEK & DESTROY 3pts win @ 14/5 Sporting bet 3rd Newmarket 2.20 Curtains (6f, Class1, G/S) BET 140 - CURTAINS 1pt ew @ 14/1 Stan James 4th Newcastle 3.45 Horatio Carter (7f, Cl 2, Soft) BET 141 - HORATIO CARTER 3pts win @ 9/2 Bet365 1st 11/4 :ok so we got a nice price on Horatio who just held on to win, cant see that one winning again with a penalty. Curtains ran well to get 4th in the listed 2yo race. will update totals later yesterday 10pts staked 16.5pts returned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 28, 2009 Author Share Posted June 28, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book June Total Total bets 61 Wins / bets 7/29 EW/ Bets 8/28 Place bets 0/1 Doubles 0/0 Forecasts 0/1 Multiples 0/2 Total bets 15/61 SR 24.59% Staked 206pts Returns 199.79pts P/L -6.21pts Yield -3.01% Overall total Total bets 141 Wins / bets 17/77 EW/ Bets 19/58 Places 0/1 Doubles 1/2 Forecasts 0/1 Multliples 0/2 Total bets 37/141 SR 26.24% Staked 503pts Returns 509.58pts P/Lpts +6.58pts Yield +1.30% back into profit thans to the 20/1 winner last Monday night however only a small stake on it. 3 winners this week from 16 bets but managed a profit of +18pts 2 days away from month end to turn a small deficit into profit. Hopefully going to Windsor tomorrow night so will have a few bets there posted up beforehand. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 29, 2009 Author Share Posted June 29, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2 bets at Windsor tonight 8.10 Windsor Trans Siberian (1m2f, Class4, G/F) I saw this horse run 2nd to Martyr at the may bank holiday meeting. Nearly had the beating of Martyr that day & only just failed to hold it off. Martyr has risen now to OR 91 after 3 decent efforts since in better company. Decent apprentice also takes off a handy 5lb off this top weight. Record at Windsor reads: :jumpTo('arch_race_pup','306283')'>04 May 09 2/8 9-3 83Wnds 10f6Gd/Frm, Frm pl4:jumpTo('jockey','7381')'>R L Moore :jumpTo('trainer','561')'>P F I Cole :jumpTo('horse','326357')'>Martyr 0.75 9/4 9/4f :jumpTo('arch_race_pup','301848')'>06 Apr 09 5/11 9-3 84Wnds 8f10Gd, Gd/Frm pl4:jumpTo('jockey','587')'>J Fortune :jumpTo('trainer','561')'>P F I Cole :jumpTo('horse','365309')'>Light From Mars 2.69 7/1 4/1 Steamer :jumpTo('arch_race_pup','263707')'>05 May 08 1/8 8-11 77Wnds 10f3Gd, Gd/Sft pl4:jumpTo('jockey','602')'>T Quinn :jumpTo('trainer','561')'>P F I Cole :jumpTo('horse','398023')'>Trans Siberian 2/1 7/4f :jumpTo('arch_race_pup','261249')'>14 Apr 08 2/12 8-9 76Wnds 8f3Gd/Sft4:jumpTo('jockey','21302')'>T Dean (3) :jumpTo('trainer','561')'>P F I Cole :jumpTo('horse','312367')'>Look So nk 11/2 8/1 :jumpTo('arch_race_pup','233309')'>18 Jun 07 7/14 9-0 Wnds 10f10Gd/Sft, Gd pl5:jumpTo('jockey','602')'>T Quinn :jumpTo('trainer','561')'>P F I Cole :jumpTo('horse','318297')'>Fourteenth 6.62 25/1 25/1 Style of running from a prominent position is suited by this switchback course & on the fast ground tonight, can assert at the right time to get amongst the placings. 1st time cheekpieces looks very significant also & could well help. Odds on fav Racing hero could be anything after only 2 runs in madien company & who wants to back odds on on hcap debut? Bet 142 - Trans Siberian 2.5pts ew Best odds guaranteed with >paddy power 9/1 EW 1-2-3 8.40 Windsor (1m 3f, Class5, G/F) Hollow Green Perhaps i am missing something here but the horse has already won here twice this season & stands at 20/1 Bet365. It races off 61 only 2lb higher than last win here over this distance. Beat urban space that night who then franked the form winning last monday. Bet 143 - Hollow Green 1.5pts ew Best odds Sporting bet 25/1 EW 1-2-3 Bet 144 - 1pt ew double on above 2 with Bet365 (bog) 20/1 & 8/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted June 29, 2009 Share Posted June 29, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Made my day that! Well in Bowles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted June 29, 2009 Share Posted June 29, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted June 29, 2009 Share Posted June 29, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book I read this thread and didnt even see it :loon Congrats - You should change your name to The Monday Night Windsor maestro. Thats 2 biggies at Windsor now isnt it ? :notworthy:notworthyIndeed he should. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted June 29, 2009 Share Posted June 29, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Indeed he should. :lol:lol:lol Holy ..... - You've done it again :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 29, 2009 Share Posted June 29, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book terrific shout :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 29, 2009 Author Share Posted June 29, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Made my day that! Well in Bowles. :clap :clap Indeed he should. :lol:lol:lol Holy ..... - You've done it again :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy terrific shout :clap Thanks guys, i am now dreading next Monday night! My profit for this track this season is worth looking at now! Thanks again for the comments, much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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