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Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book


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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Nice winner Rob, you seem to go well at the track:ok You should start focusing on what suits (ie, track, trip, class, etc). You seem to be having some decent big priced success and I'd strongly advise a thorough check of your bets, highlighting areas of speciality. Well done.

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Nice winner Rob, you seem to go well at the track:ok You should start focusing on what suits (ie, track, trip, class, etc). You seem to be having some decent big priced success and I'd strongly advise a thorough check of your bets, highlighting areas of speciality. Well done.
cheers Russ yes i need a couple of days to list them all out, that was the intention but i am now on nearly 150 bets so a lot to sort through & filter:ok
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 7.30 THIRSK (7F, cLASS 5, GOOD) - GEEZERS COLOURS I highlighted this on the thirsk thread, perhaps just a hunch bet at a big price but was up against class 1 horses last year, only beaten 2L by Paco Boy in March 08!! won 4 times all on the AW & hasnt shown much since. 79.0 betfair 1pt win

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book My record at individual courses this flat season Date 30/06/09

Courses

Course

Runs

Wins

EW

P/L

Ascot

26

2

6

+5.19

bath

2

2

0

+25

Beverley

1

0

0

-2

Brighton

1

0

0

-2

Chester

4

0

0

-16

Doncaster

5

0

0

-20

Epsom

10

1

1

+3

Goodwood

2

0

1

0

Haydock

6

2

0

+14

Newbury

5

0

0

-18

Newcastle

10

3

2

+44.03

Newmarket

12

0

0

-48

Pontefract

1

1

0

+16

redcar

1

1

0

+13.5

Ripon

3

0

0

-14

Salisbury

1

0

0

-4

Sandown

13

1

1

-23

thirsk

2

0

0

-5

Windsor

20

7

0

+73.47

Yarmouth

1

0

0

-4

York

12

2

2

-4.26

Significant at Newbury, Newmarket, Chester, Donny i have had 26 bets with 0 winners. Windsor, i have hit a 1 in 3 SR & a nice profit despite low stakes. Newcastle is another course i have done well at so far. More analysis to come.

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book As we enter a new month, updated totals below June total Total bets 65 Wins / bets 7/30 EW/ Bets 9/30 Place bets 0/1 Doubles 0/1 Forecasts 0/1 Multiples 0/2 Total bets 16/65 SR 23.43% Staked 217pts Returns 248.16pts P/L +31.16pts Yield +14.35% Overall total Total bets 145 Wins / bets 17/78 EW/ Bets 20/60 Places 0/1 Doubles 1/3 Forecasts 0/1 Multliples 0/2 Total bets 38/145 SR 26.20% Staked 514pts Returns 557.95pts P/Lpts +43.95pts Yield +8.55% Into profit for the month thanks to Monday nights winner at 25/1 (SP 16/1). Another busy month with 65 bets however inclusive of Epsom & Ascot where i had a number of bets through the week. Monday nights have proved profitable at Windsor with a 20/1 & 25/1 winner this month. My aim was to finish each month in profit so pleased to finish what could be described as a difficult month in the + figures. Thats 2 months from 3 now showing a profit at month end. :ok After listening to Russ, i have made a list of the 145 bets on here now & will analyse where i think my game is best suited. I will post up some findings over the next few days.

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 1 bet tonight, suprisingly my 1st bet in a class 6 all season! 8.10 Chepstow Bolton Hall (1m4f, Class 6, G/F) Another horse that is having a flat run after a resonable campaign over hurdles. Won a class 4 novice hurdle in May after a few placed efforts & ended up running off OR 100 on last outing when pulled up over 22f. Had 2 AW runs back in feb however they were to tune the horse up for its jumps campaign, as after those runs its figures were 2-2-3-2-1-P, so very consistent horse. Looking back at its turf career, it has victories over 5f, 7f , 8f & 9f. Its last victory on the level being at Beverley over a mile in Aug 07 off OR 60. Runs off 50 tonight its lowest ever rating. The fast ground should to its liking & a competent jockey on board. Bet 146 - Best odds 15/2 Sporting bet - 2pts win

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 7.25 Epsom Ivory Lace (7f, Cl4, G/F) Record on similar tracks (undulating) Bath 2 wins from 4 Brighton 3 wins from 10 Goodwood 2 wins from 14 Overall 12 wins from 92 (13%), 7 have come from 28 (25%) on the above 3 tracks. I expect it to be suited by Epsom's undulating track. 6 wins from 34 over 7f (17%) of which 4 were on the tracks listed above. Last victory was off 85 back in Sept 07, runs off 70 tonight after gradually coming down the weights. Was 3rd LTO at Goodwood with merrymadcap in 2nd. Marrymadcap won next time out at the weekend. Previous to that ran 3rd over 7f at Goodwood with Desert Dreamer behind in 5th. Due to DD's penalty, Ivory Lace is 5lb better off tonight. Looks a stand out ew bet 2pts EW 8/1 with >Hills, 1-2-3, 8 runners

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 1st 2 bets of the month havent run to what i expected, Bolton Hall was up there with about 3f to go, but when they went, he didnt cope with the pace & finished 8th never nearer, however perhaps they are waiting for another race as it travelled well up to that point Ivory Lace didnt have the pace to go with the leaders tonight & didnt make up the ground necessary at Epsom. Friday Sandown 4.00 TRANQUIL TIGER (10f, Class 1 listed, G/F) Tranquil Tiger will set the pace here & will be interesting to see if it can make all to land this for Cecil. As usual, Cecil has no doubt mapped out a plan for this 5yo after having 1 run at Goodwood just holding on in a listed event over this distance. prior to this, the horse ran 9 times as a 4yo with 2 wins over further in listed events. Confront has something to prove at this distance & the fast pace may be against it at the end. Covert Ambition has won 2 from 2, the latter being ist handicap debut over 10f. It is rated some 11lb below Tranquil Tiger & only gets 3lb off it here. Democrate was formerly trained in France by Andre Fabre & makes a debut for Godolphin. Guarino makes its debut for Gary Moore but hasnt run for over 600 days. Halicarnassus got close to Tranquil tiger last time at Goodwood but doesnt win often & has to be caught right Kirklees hasnt been seen since its exploits at Nad Al Sheba however could be the one for the forecast. Its UK listed form stands up & Dettori rides this one of the 3 Godolphin entries BET 148 - Tranquil Tiger 5pts win @ 4/1 with >Paddy power guaranteed odds

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Now i know how Alex feels, Fanjura one of my notebook horses wins at 14/1 :unsure, forgot all about it. Gutted Didnt see Tranquil Tigers race & no surprise the Godolphin horse won as its form was the best in the race (no comment obviously from JJ on thier 1-2 today).

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Beverley 9.00 (5f, Class 6, G/F) Yungaburra put in a decent show last time out ending up 5th of 17 beaten 2.75L at Thirsk. Drawn well tonight in stall 15 should be up there again. This horse is rated 84 on the ASW & only 65 on the turf, has to have everything go its way, so a place bet is probably the safest. Dickie Le Davoir runs out of stall 9 which isnt too bad & has 1st blinkers on after 2 attempts with cheekpieces. No forlorn hope this one if the blinkers work as it won this time last year off a 13lb higher rating. bets Bet 149 - Yungaburra to place 2.08 BF 2pts Bet 150 - Dickie Le Davoir to win 13.5 BF 2pts

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Dickie finished well last night to nab 2nd & perhaps an EW bet should have been the call at that price. Todays racing 2.40 Sandown HUZZAH (1m, Cl2, Gd) Huzzah was 2nd in the Hunt cup beaten by Forgotten voice & may have the chance here to win its 1st race of the season. Was 5th in the Lincoln again on a straight mile course & i am hoping the bend will assist the horse today, runs off 99 & although highest winning mark is 93, the 4yo still has a bit of scope to improve. Mirrored the 3yo from Stoutes yard has to be feared on a track where the trainer has a 23% SR over 5years. Arostic is another i like & i think it will come on for its run at York LTO out where i backed it when 4th behind Kavachi. BET 151 - HUZZAH 2.5pts ew @ 11/1 Bet365 (bog) BET 152 - AROSTIC 1pt ew @ 8/1 Hills 3.15 Sandown Eclipse stakes (1m 2f, Grp1, Gd) The poor showing of Derby winners & favourites in this race is a worry & i recall helping a few to a nice 1-2-3 in the race last year. This is based on backing the 1st 3 in the betting in a combination bet. The bookies are paying a tricast on the race & Sea The stars, Rip Van Winkle & Conduit are the 3 to back. The trifecta paid £53 last year for the 1st 3 in the betting. BET 152 - 1pt Comb Trifecta Sea the stars, Conduit, Rip Van winkle

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.30 Haydock JUST LILLE (1m 4f, Class2, G/F) The best trainer stats for Haydock belong to Mrs A Duffield who boasts 8 winners from 31 runs here in last 5 years (over 25%). Her entry here is Just Lille who has run 3 times before at Haydock finishing 1st & 2nd over a mile & before that won over 10f here. Just Lille won a small race at Hamilton over a mile last time out but does run over 8f to 12f often. It was 2nd to record breaker before that who then franked up the form when a close 2nd at Royal Ascot. 25/1 at Bet365 looks a ridiculous price to me, should be 14's at best in my book. BET 154 - JUST LILLE 1.5pt ew @ 25/1 Bet365

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Round up of the last few days 1st July 2pts staked 0pts returned 2nd July 4pts staked 0pts returned 3rd July 9pts staked 0pts returned Today Bet 151 - Huzzah 4th @ 11/1 EP :ok returned 9.37pts Bet 152 - Acrostic 1st @ 8/1 EP:ok returned 12pts Bet 153 - Tricast comb 1-2-3 returned 9.9pts:ok Bet 154 - Just Lille unplaced - 3pts July Total Total bets 9 Wins / bets 0/3 EW / Bets 2/4 Places 0/1 Tricasts 1/1 Total bets 3/9 SR 33.33% Staked 31pts Returns 31.27pts P/L +0.27pts Yield +0.87% Overall total Total bets 154 Wins / bets 17/81 EW/ Bets 22/64 Places 0/2 Doubles 1/3 Forecasts 0/1 Tricasts 1/1 Multliples 0/2 Total bets 41/154 SR 26.62% Staked 545pts Returns 589.22pts P/Lpts +44.22pts Yield +8.11%

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Nice stats Rob' date=' keep it going mate![/quote'] Thanks Graham The good thing is, that these are all my bets since April when i started this so i know i am in profit & have an exact record of all the bets. I am analysing them still to hopefully specialise in a few types of races.
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Windsor 7.30 (5f, Class 4, G/F) PETER ISLAND / HARRY UP I have been waiting for PETER ISLAND to run over this sort of distance since i saw it at Goodwood. This horse will win a nice race once it runs off the right mark. Still think it may be too high but i have looked at the pace in the race & feel that on this fast ground, that there will only be a few that get into this. On the pace front, stalls 1-4 hold a decent amount of pace with those in 2-4 prominent horses. The only one with any pace in the middle is stall 7 & then the 2 drawn widest are likely to lead. Not sure if PETER ISLAND & HARRY UP will cut each others throats but they may be difficult to catch on a fast surface. Harryup made a decent return to turf action 3 weeks ago at Bath when 4th to Artistic License however this shorter distance will be much better suited & the wide draw will enable the horse to dominate proceedings. Its rating on the AW rose to 87 earlier in the year & it gets in off 66 here & although has never won on turf (seems well suited to Wolves & Kempton), i think now its with with Andrew Reid, he is obviously keen to attempt off this low mark. Peter Island runs off 84 tomorrow night & although best winning mark is 79, the horse was only 4.5l behind winner High Standing at Goodwood in May, with High Standing going on to win the Wokingham in style. These are 2 horses i am looking at the moment & Bet365 have priced up 8/1 for Harry up & 10/1 for Peter Island. I can take both on their BOG rules tonight. BET 155 - PETER ISLAND 2.5pts ew @ 10/1 Bet365 BET 156 - HARRY UP 1pt ew @ 8/1 Bet365

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Peter Island was a NR & Harry up just failed to last home despite being in the 1-2 until the last 50 yards 8.00 Windsor (1m 2f, Class4, Gd) The race is full of course winners recently & The Cayterers carries a 6lb penalty after 2 recent successes here over a mile. Should be able to step up, but never attempted over 10f before. Goes well for the claimer. Traphalgar looks a decent 4yo now & would have no problem with the recent rain that hit the course. Resurge won here last week in a muddling race & has no form on anything other than g/firm. Special Reserve's figures here read 2-2-1 & goes on any ground. Rating of 82 shouldnt hinder it too much & the course form is key to its chances tonight, think this will go well. I am against the 3yo's in handicpas now so wont consider these especially the short favourite who could be anything. Hip Hip Hooray is another not without a chance with form on easier ground also plus a course win last week. Bets 156 - Special Reserve 6/1 >Bet365 bog 2pts EW 157 - Hip Hip Hooray 25/1 Stan James 1pt EW

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 4.30 Pontefract (6f) Those drawn high should go well here although the top 2 drawn are now both NR's! Drawn 13 Novellen Lad 12/1 Drawn 12 Eton Rifles 11/4 Drawn 11 Mr Wolf 33/1 Drawn 10 Maze 20/1 Personally i fancy a little tricast option on the above combining all to make 24 bets, however should pay a nice divi Taking stall 9 into account also Solar Spirit at 15/2 is also worth considering. Was tempted to back all 5 but Eton Rifles price is too short to cover level stakes profit. Going to have 1pt on the other 4 to win at decent odds. Bet 158 - 1pt win Novellen Lad 10/1 bet365 Bet 159 - 1pt win Mr Wolf 28/1 bet365 Bet 160 - 1pt win Maze 20/1 bet365 Bet 161 - 1pt win Solar spirit 7/1 bet365 Bet 162 - 0.1pt comb tricast Novellen Lad, Maze, Mr Wolf, Eton rifles (2.4pts) all bets with b365 bog

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.00 Newmarket (6f, Class2, Gd) DAMIEN Barry Hill's DAMIEN should go well here albeit i am taking a chance on the draw as stall 2 could be good / and or bad! But the horse has form on all ground so easy ground is no concern to me, since winning on debut last year at Windsor over 6f, finished in front of the likes of Angelzarke, Indian Art & Ouqba next time at Newmarket behind elnawin in the yearling stakes in August. Followed by a 2nd nk behind awinnersgame in the Weatherbys sprint for 2yo's at Donny. Its last race last seaosn was a decent 4th place behind recent grp 1 winner Lord Shanakil beaten only 2.25L off level weights. Started this season in a 7f race on the AW at Lingfield, ending up 4th behind Clive Brittains Nashmiah who went on to win at Yorks May meeting. I didnt think much of its run behind Total Gallery at Ascot when finishing 6th of 9, but battled back on last start with a 3rd of 7 behind Danehill destiny in a listed race. I think this big field will help the horse a lot as it seems to go better in the big fields where there is limited bunching involved, using its draw it can pick its spot & find a way through. Bet 163 - DAMIEN 2pts ew 20/1 with Corals looks a stand out to me. EW 1-2-3-4

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.10 Newmarket (1m, Grp1, Gd) - RAINBOW VIEW The ground conditions should play into the hands of RAINBOW VIEW who should now be able to assert his class to win a group 1 this season. The price being offered by Corals at 5/2 looks massive in my opinion. I am not a great lover of following horses that have perhaps not lived up to thier class of a previosu season, however Rainbow view didnt pick up in the Guineas & perhaps the fast ground didnt suit it totally but whatever the reason, the step up to 1m 4f for the Oaks was too much & no match for top class Sariska. Next time out at Ascot RV was an eyecatching 3rd in another race where it failed to understand the pace. Tomorrow will be a different story & i expect we will see the RV we saw last year. Bet 164 - RAINBOW VIEW 8pts win @ 5/2 Corals

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Disappointed today with the showing of the 2 i backed. Round up of the last few days 6th July 4 bets 13pts staked 0pts returned 7th July 5 bets 6.4pts staked 0pts returned 8th July 2 bets 12pts staked 0pts returned On a bit of a losing streak as the thread didnt include my tricast landed on Monday night as i didnt get it posted up. Will be back tomorrow to take on the bookies once again!

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

My record at individual courses this flat season Date 30/06/09

Courses

Course

Runs

Wins

EW

P/L
Ascot

26

2

6

+5.19
bath

2

2

0

+25
Beverley

1

0

0

-2
Brighton

1

0

0

-2
Chester

4

0

0

-16
Doncaster

5

0

0

-20
Epsom

10

1

1

+3
Goodwood

2

0

1

0
Haydock

6

2

0

+14
Newbury

5

0

0

-18
Newcastle

10

3

2

+44.03
Newmarket

12

0

0

-48
Pontefract

1

1

0

+16
redcar

1

1

0

+13.5
Ripon

3

0

0

-14
Salisbury

1

0

0

-4
Sandown

13

1

1

-23
thirsk

2

0

0

-5
Windsor

20

7

0

+73.47
Yarmouth

1

0

0

-4
York

12

2

2

-4.26
Significant at Newbury, Newmarket, Chester, Donny i have had 26 bets with 0 winners. Windsor, i have hit a 1 in 3 SR & a nice profit despite low stakes. Newcastle is another course i have done well at so far. More analysis to come.
another 2 losers at HQ, thats 14 bets at Newmarket this season with no return, is that telling me something?
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

another 2 losers at HQ' date=' thats 14 bets at Newmarket this season with no return, is that telling me something?[/quote'] Yes:tongue2 Seriously Rob, I think it's a good idea to analyse this. Maybe there is a theme? Is it course winners, hold up horses, etc? Well worth looking at in more detail:ok
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book I analyse my past bets plenty. Last year I found that I was massively behind at certain tracks last year and found I was a big loser at Yarmouth, so for the final 3rd of the season I stopped backing there. I started a fresh this season and gave the place another bash - I've been really succesful there this season. I'm not saying do not be wary of courses (I am at some places, but only to a degree) but never say never that's all. I've made the mistake and scrubbing races and places incorrectly in the past. First half last season I noticed I was struggling in lower grade handicaps. So I started down-staking in those events (hence by specialist "Upper Class" thread). Now come season-end it turned out to be incorrect to down-stake just because of the grade. I still find myself making snap judgements, the other week I was slagging off Bath to Linzi (not that she was listening!). Then I checked back over the years and it turns out that it's possibly just s recent poor run that I'm having there. Just a little word of warning that's all, sometimes a poor S/R can be a coincidence. Bit rambled that, but I think you'll get the jist of what I'm saying. :ok

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Just a little word of warning that's all' date=' [i']sometimes a poor S/R can be a coincidence.
That is what concerns me, as its only 14bets, i will look at them tomorrow, i recal a number were at the Craven & Guineas mtgs therefore may be too early in the season. The 2 today were backed with a view to a change in the ground which didnt materialise in time, but i had to post last night.
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Did some checking today & will post up the results later in terms of the races i would like to concentrate on. Todays racing 3.10 Newmarket DUNCAN (Grp 2, 1m 4f, Gd) I am a big fan of this horse & its first run in group company, 4th in the Coronation cup at Epsom was an excellent effort. Wasnt beaten much that day in a blanket finish & can give a good account today. Any ease in the ground is no worry at all having won on a softer surface before. The opposition comes in terms of the Godolphin horse Campaignologist as the hardwicke form was boosted at the weekend by Barshiba (5th at Ascot) who won the lancashire oaks (Starfala behind in 3rd). That formline puts the horse in front of Duncan however i just feel Duncan has the more to give on this ground. Dr Freemantle was so poor in the ascot race, it was hard to believe & i would expect an improved showing today. the other one for consdieration is All the aces having won here on latest start in listed company, it gets the trip well, likes the ground & has won here. Bet 165 - DUNCAN 5pts win @ 5/2 Ladbrokes Bet 166 - Duncan, Campaignologist & All the aces 0.5pts combination tricast (3pts staked) 2.00 Newmarket TAWAABB (6f, Grp 2, Gd) Tawaabb came in 3rd for me at Royal Ascot & i think can step up to 6f ok. Finished in front of Nosedive at Ascot although that one was well hampered at Ascot, will be expected to go closer today. At the odds i would take another chance on Tawaabb to get into the placings again. Bet 167 - Tawaabb 1pt ew @ 12/1 Skybet may be more to come later

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.55 Warwick VICTORIA SPONGE (6f, Cl4, G/F) Has won nicely on last 2 starts & goes in search of the hat trick today. Has a very good turn of foot & although last 2 wins have come on undulating tracks, the horse should be followed until beaten. Shouldnt have any problem with the drop in trip by a furlong. Chapple hyams Baunagain is the danger. Bet 168 - VICTORIA SPONGE 4pts win 3/1 Bet365

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Newmarket 4.55 GREEN BERET (5f, Class 3, Gd) As usual Dandy Nicholls looks the one to beat here with Indian Trial, however the only 3yo in the race is Green Beret & i dont actually think the race will take a lot of winning. You need to get every inch of the track here with the uphill finish & i think Green Beret can finally get into the winners circle against these experienced sprinters. Most of these win at the smaller tracks but this horse already has 3 rides here at newmarket with the latest finishing 2nd in a class 2 race. BET 169 - GREEN BERET 4pts win @ 5/1 Bet365

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Newmarket 4.55 GREEN BERET (5f' date= Class 3, Gd) As usual Dandy Nicholls looks the one to beat here with Indian Trial, however the only 3yo in the race is Green Beret & i dont actually think the race will take a lot of winning. You need to get every inch of the track here with the uphill finish & i think Green Beret can finally get into the winners circle against these experienced sprinters. Most of these win at the smaller tracks but this horse already has 3 rides here at newmarket with the latest finishing 2nd in a class 2 race. BET 169 - GREEN BERET 4pts win @ 5/1 Bet365
:puke Sickening to watch. Unlucky mate.
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