Bbotd 31/1/09

[fintron]

4.25 Lingfield I backed Folio for his last run and he just did enough to land the race from Just Observing. Although he is back up in grade, he is proven at this level and he has infact won off higher handicap marks in the past. In such good form he warrants respect, but I don't think he beat that much last time to be fair and Willie Musson's nine year old may be vulnerable to a sharp improver. I think Annabelle's Charm fits the bill. Luca Cumani's filly begins life in handicaps of a mark of just 72 and I think that looks overly generous considering the form of her maidens. Third on her debut to Shavansky, the second, Wine 'n Dine, has recently won off 81, the 5th, Cape Express, off 83 and the 4th, Antillia, looked all set to win before seemingly suffering from an injury a couple of weeks ago at Wolverhampton. She raced in a field of only four last time out but got the job done well, and starting off just 72 here I think she's a cracking bet if anything like the tissue 7/4.

[mowgli77]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 Locksmith 3.00 Doncaster (*BANKER*) - 2pts WIN The bottom 3 horses are out of the handicap but Locksmith runs off 10-0 and a rating of 133. It won a class 3 handicap chase really easily off 130 with G Lee on board and today goes off 133 with a 3lb claimer on board, effectively running off 130 but in a class 2 race. Won a Grade 2 novice chase all the way back in 2005 but the more recent class 3 win was May 2007. Likes to lead from the front and is my last ditch attempt to steal the BBOTD away for January. ;)

[jtw1]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 SAT - SANDOWN 3.45 - 3M110Y H'CAP CHASE. 10/11 won by a horse from the bottom half of the Handicap 10/11 was returned at odds of 6/1 or UNDER LTO 9/11 had won at least at CLASS 3 level over chases 9/11 were between 2nd - 5th fav [ all under 11/1] 1/11 were FAV 8/11 were aged 8 or 10 , NO 6y-old from 11 runners has won. 7/11 was placed 1st or 2nd LTO 5/11 had a break of 60+ days 0/11 had ran within 13 days previously Take out the top 4 in the handicap [ GUNGADU , MONKERHOSTIN, LACOUDAL, ERIC'S CHARM ] then apply the strating price stat which takes care of ACCORDING TO JOHN . Apply the Class/Grade stat gets rid of SOMETHING WELLS [Cl 3 win] , CAN'T BUY TIME [Cl3 win] and SOUND ACCORD [Cl 4 win] That leaves the P NICHOLS representative NEW LITTLE BRIC as the selection , a course winner , the only nagging doubt is the ground as it hasn't won on anything worse than G/S .

[BillyHills]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 330 Doncaster: Gidam Gidam 4 miles is the trip and very competative but I like the chances of Gidam Gidam, ran in the race last year off 131 and finished fifth, not beaten all that far, I think this years race is weaker and he runs off 3lb lower so must be in the shake up. Showed his well being this season with a fine win and then a good effort at MR, usually a good jumper I reckon he just needs to settle a bit better to show his true potential so I think he can still improve.

[godofhorses]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 3.20 Lingfield - Little Edward Doubtful Sound beat this horse but he has gone up 7Lbs which should mean that Little Edward can turn the tables With a price difference of 4Points i'm on the Ron Hodges bandwagon.

[bowles10]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 2.35 Sandown MASSINIS MAGUIRE EW Onto the last day of the competition, i had to choose between a couple of horses, do i go odds on in the 1st 2 races or wait for a horse who i think still has improvement & look value. Massini's Maguire won the Ballymore at Cheltenham in 07, at 25/1 & beat a certain Tidal Bay that day, showing guts getting up that hill to hold off Tidal. was injured last season but returned this year to run over the fences & duly won in style at ascot over 2m 5f on good ground. Hobbs then put him in the Feltham at kempton where it managed to stay with Breedesbreeze & went down only 5L over 3m. Needs to hold its jumping togther round here but loves to be up with the pace & this small field will help it. Herecomesthetruth will no doubt get home as will Araldur who won impressively here last time. to try & maintian my lead at the top of the table, i am going to go EW on this one hoping its gets in the 1-2.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 San 3.10 Ballydub 1pt win A real improver over hurdles and I dont think has finished either. Strung to my attention when coming second behind punchestowns and whilst beaten by a horse given him a stone, he still ran very well that day and showed that he was well treated off his mark that day. He showed that afterwards too with an easy win at newb. and went to chelt. lto with a good chance. However lto he fell when still in major contention and travelling pretty well I thought, indeed like a possible winner that day and thats despite Big Bucks being in the field that day and that one won a grade race last week. So possibly he isnt finished with yet and he might take advantage still today even though his mark is now in the 140s.

[Interregnum]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 Emerald Wilderness -Lingfield 15:55 Wine is more solid but it's little bit difficult task for him,Gran passion aw specialist but age and longer distance against him,Evident Pride and war of roses are more for place ,now Emerald Backing from a 227 day lay off and may be he need a run but distance not a problem and it's only ride of R Hughes so for me very good BANKER BET. 2pts win

[Pumpit]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 Wetherby 2.20pm 1pt lay Ellerslie George Just have to say its been a fast month with some great tipping from some guys and good luck today for the top 2 in the table and a big thanks to Billyhills the best Mod on the whole forum for all his hard and good work:clap:clap:clap Back to the betting ,Ellerslie George is a horse that loves this track and has a great return of late but todays field for me have to much for him today,LTO for me the field was not as good as today and the reason iam laying is that others will win today and his odds are nice to lay in my book.laying. Good Luck Whatever You Bet Today

[thomo14]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 Doncaster 1.55 Copper Bleu Hobbs Stable getting winners T J O'brien very able jockey Trounced Riverside Theatre from the Henderson Stable by 14 lengths last time & more improvement to come.Same ground today Good to Soft & should have to much experience for the newcomers in this race Win

[Boulder5111]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 S3.10 Rathcor 0.5pt E/W This bottom weight will appreciate these conditions and the jockey takes a further 7lb off. Has some good form in big fields and doesn't have too many miles on the clock so quite unexposed. Only negative is whether it has the class to win a race of this nature but if it takes to the track and gets into a rhythm, it could me in the mix. Good luck to the guys at the top of the table and well done as always to BH for the admin :ok

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 ARALDUR 2.35 Sandown. 2 points win NAP. I think the trip and ground will suit and he's open to finding further improvement. Has a few live dangers, but I just get the feeling that he can get the race run to suit and put them all to the sword with that little more improvement. Good luck Bowles. I didn't deliberatley select this race either - pure coincidence and adds to the fun I guess.

[Falbrav]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 BOLD DIVA 1.10 Lingfield. 1 point win. Has to improve a little on recent form, but gets in here off a decent mark and does have the ability to go close. Amy Baker no mug and if getting her fractions right, this one can go well at a decent price. No trip and surface worries.

[Rainbow]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 beau largesse 110 wether. 0.5 pts ew. big price for a horse that can win this on best form and weight combined. needs to up its game, but trip and ground shouldnt pose any problems. should go well.

[bowles10]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09

ARALDUR 2.35 Sandown. 2 points win NAP. I think the trip and ground will suit and he's open to finding further improvement. Has a few live dangers, but I just get the feeling that he can get the race run to suit and put them all to the sword with that little more improvement. Good luck Bowles. I didn't deliberatley select this race either - pure coincidence and adds to the fun I guess.

yeap, good luck mate, i thought it was funny when i saw your post, i had 2 other races in mind & could have gone for any 3 today. I just feel this was the best chance of the 3. I thought you might go 2pts on an evens shot which may have won it, all credit to you if you do. Mind you, anyone can still win with a big price one! Its been my best month by a long street, so just hope i can continue in the future.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 3.20 Lingfield Swiss Franc The form of some of his group races is absolutely bombproof, including a 2nd to Henrythenavigator, and 3rds behind Winker Watson, Sir Gerry and Fat Boy, all of which are starts of the flat circuit. Never run in a handicap before, and an eye-catching Jockey booking. 10/3 currently which is a massive price, wouldn't be suprised to see that get smashed into something around 7/4 by the off. One of my most confident selections of the month.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 3.30 NAUTON BROOK 0.5 E/W Stable second string in this but wouldn't be the first time the more unfancied horse from the stable won. They are under a cloud at the mo but again are very capable of bouncing back with an overpriced horse and this one has won over this distance which is important and likely to make a bold bid from the fro

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09

yeap, good luck mate, i thought it was funny when i saw your post, i had 2 other races in mind & could have gone for any 3 today. I just feel this was the best chance of the 3. I thought you might go 2pts on an evens shot which may have won it, all credit to you if you do. Mind you, anyone can still win with a big price one! Its been my best month by a long street, so just hope i can continue in the future.

I was thereabouts for a while but drifted away tamely!! Good luck to you both.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 GL to the contenders. I have 3 of my favorite novices this season in the race, but if I was to bet at the prices it was going to be on Massini's who has drifted to a nice looking price at 5/1. 3.45 Sandown - Something Wells e/w Can't believe he's raised only 1 lb for latest 2nd at Ascot. I thought he ran very well. He was reported not being well after the race, so he could have won on the day. Off light weight with Aiden Coleman on board looks nailed on for a place and represents a nice chance of a winner too.

[BillyHills]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 Good luck to both Bowles and Verisi, quite fitting I think that they go head to head. Hope you both dodge the bullets too!

[xcode]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 235 Sandown: Herecomesthetruth (Lay) 1pt I don't see this one as favorite and clearly not below 2/1. The race is small but very competitive and Araldur and Massini's Maguire have better chances to win. Poor that Will Be Done is a NR, he could have a chance to go in front either. I doubt this trip will be as suitable for the fav as many expect. We will see :hope

[PL2008]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 WETHERBY 1:15 Colditz EW Won over hurdles 3 runs ago on Good to Soft (Chase: Soft). Followed the win in runs over 'Good' and ' Good to Firm'. Return to softer ground might suit. Jockey J M Davies has one other ride today and that is in the 4m marathon at Doncaster, so there must be something to like about Colditz. EW

[Gingertipster]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 2:35 Sandown Sound Accord 2points win Should be suited by the step up in trip, jumps well and unexposed.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 Well done Bowles - fully deserved :clap Good work as always BH.

[Pumpit]

Re: Bbotd 31/1/09 Well done Bowles cracking betting :clap:clap:clap:clap:clapand well done Verisimilitude for a close call and a :clap:clap:clapfor BH.