Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

[Mr Intensity]

First slam of the year, let's make it a good one:ok

[radevd]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Grand Slam Winner bets: A.Murray 3.25 Andy certainly is the favourite out here, he has a lot 5 match experience, a smart player, capable of beating any of the favourites: Djokovic, Federer or Nadal. He was clinical last half of the season and tha's his moment of glory. Nalbandian 21.00 A big name in tennis, but no major titles won. But, I belive his consistency can tell the word here. He has good groundstrokes, consistent ( of course he can drop a set against guy like Niemine, but won't allow him to win the match ) and in good physical and mental condition after Sydney tornament.

[radevd]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Hewitt 2.00 Gonzo dropped his level last time, so never "giveupping" shall take advantage. It's 5 set affair, crowd behind him and a Gonzalez who finds trouble striking the ball cleanly, so here will win the guy who works more. Schwank 2.00 Young argentinian will have to play an old T.Haas, who hasn't play competitive matches long time, so here I'll go for the youngster. Schwank an all-round player will fight against an Tommy Haas, who can very impatient some times. Stakhovsky 2.00 Oh, c'omon Clement had already told his word in tennis. One of the best rising stars, with beautiful backhand, like Davydenko style should pass easily against an old, hard moving Clement. The time has come for Stakhovsky to express on bigger stages, not only on challenger events. Also an 5 match express: J.Tipsarevic 1.10, F.Lopez 1.44, JW Tsonga 1.28, F.Serra 1.33, F.Verdasco 1.11 = 3.02

[Ashtee]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb According to the weather forecast, it should be fun being on Tipsaravic at 1.10 if he's up second in the order of play.

[searchinio]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Tommy Haas is fit and well prepared! He won an Exhibition against Fish yesterday in Kooyong 7:6 6:3 He will handle Schwank who hasn`t played an ATP match on the 5th continent EVER(!!) The best ranked opponent the Gaucho has beaten yet on Hard is Grosjean (nr.69)... Tommy @1,83 is one hell of a value bet in my opinion...

[radevd]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb

Tommy Haas is fit and well prepared! He won an Exhibition against Fish yesterday in Kooyong 7:6 6:3 He will handle Schwank who hasn`t played an ATP match on the 5th continent EVER(!!) The best ranked opponent the Gaucho has beaten yet on Hard is Grosjean (nr.69)... Tommy @1,83 is one hell of a value bet in my opinion...

You're wrong here mate, Schwank had beaten the great Gilles Simon himself in R32.Vienna., in Metz he had beaten Hanescu, Almagro... I don't think it has any importance, that argentinian never played in Australia. http://www.atpworldtour.com/5/en/players/playerprofiles/playeractivity.asp?query=Singles&year=2008&player=SE66&selTournament=0&prevtrnnum=0 Glad to see you arguing though.

[RocknRolla]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Top AO contenders analysis 1. ANDY MURRAY Murray is the most in form tennis player on the planet right now. He has the best movement, has now the best fitness, and the best backhand(apart from Nalbandian and Djokovic) on tour. His serve possesses serious heat this year and is deadly. His 2nd serve percentages can improve still, and he is improving variations on serve. Has not peaked yet at 21yrs(still can improve S&V), has an all court game to boot. Game is most suited to hard. 2. ROGER FEDERER 2nd most likely candidate for the title. Won the last grand slam and timing and footwork looked impeccable at times at Kooyong. Reason is 2nd favourite, has a fairly weak backhand wing which can break down under pressure. Serving is also brilliant, high amount of variations. Power wise he still has the best forehand, but backhand is not powerful and is a liability. Possesses a lot of variations though like slice, and dropshots. Still shots have good depth and angle, especially on the forehand. 3. NOVAK DJOKOVIC I'd put him as marginal 3rd fav. He played brilliant in his 1st sydney international match and just won the masters cup. Is brilliant on a hard court. Backhand absolutely can flatten it down the line. Forehand possesses serious heat too and he is a great mover and defender. 1st Serve was great in Melbourne last year under pressure = clutch. Can he do it under pressure again. Doesn't possess the variations of Federer or Murray, this is a key weakness. His net play is atrocious at times. Only comes to net on good approach. 4. RAFAEL NADAL - not a natural hard court player this is why is the weakest of the big 4. Has never made a slam final on a hard court. Best is only semi final efforts(last year only). However we all know Nadal is a physical beast and is a fit athlete. As top seed he may have a cakewalk draw and has an advantage he doesn't have to face federer in the semi final(but can face murray which is even worse match up for nadal). He is also tough to beat over best of 5 sets and lefty forehand is simply superb. Backhand has improved, but this still can be weakened when stretched out on the run. 5. JO WILFRIED TSONGA - Definitely the 5th favourite. These courts suit his game but he is not near the form of last year. He was practically dancing around the court like a gazelle last year. Has immense heat on serve and forehand. backhand and movement are weaknesses. Volleys are good but hit and miss. 6. DAVID NALBANDIAN - was in great form at the tail end last year and narrowly missed masters cup. Is still hitting the ball clean with his backhand which is the best on tour. Should be comfortable on these hardcourts. Is a dangerous player, but often has weaknesses with serve &movement, and can make errors on his forehand. 7. JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO - the kid is a machine, and thats the problem. Lacks variety of the above players and is mechanical. Movement is less superior to the above players. Has no wins over big 4, but gave Andy murray a hell of a match in US OPEN last year. This match is indicative of good potential. The JMDP machine can gun down lesser opponents however due to superior power off the baseline and best of 5 sets format will suit his physicality(guy won 4 titles in a row). 8. GAEL MONFILS - guy has a win over nadal in his last match. Superb winners count and great athlete. If he turns up, he may be a spoiler. Doesn't have the brains to compete with a Murray or Fed however. 9. ERNESTS GULBIS - best of 5 set format will suit this guy. Has some serious weapons despite mental fragility. IS a similar player to Djokovic but possesses a huge serve. i don't rate gasquet, or simon as contenders, especially over 5 sets. Cilic isn't up to it yet and has some technical flaws with his serve and forehand. Roddick just has no baseline game. Nishikori isn't strong enough physically. This is not my work:ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Many years in the past a dark horse emerges from the field to make the final (Tsonga, Gonzalez, Baghdatis, Schuettler etc.). This has been my angle for all bets; Juan Martin Del Potro @ 51 Sportingbet Placed this one last year but can still get 41 I think. Had a breakout year last year and continued that in Auckland this week. With the exception of Federer he has a very good draw and if Safin does knock out Federer then I feel Del Potro is almost the favourite to make the final from the bottom half of the draw. Gael Monfils @ 67 Centrebet Beat Nadal recently and IMO he has the type of game that will really ignite the Melbourne crowd and get them behind him, much in the same way as Tsonga and Baggy in the past. Has very strong fitness and that will serve him well given the heat and the fact that it's the start of the season. Draw isn't too bad, with most of the dangerous floaters in Nadal's eighth of the draw. Sam Querrey @ 1000 Betfair Another one I took at the end of last year and am happier to be on now. Sam is in the third qtr which is IMO the easiest quarter of the draw. Djokovic looks a little fragile, Roddick isn't IMO at the same level of Tsonga, Del Potro etc. and whilst Nalbandian is in good form I can't help but feel this is a relatively easier quarter. Sam's big serve should see him competitive against these seeds should he meet them.

[Ashtee]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb

Many years in the past a dark horse emerges from the field to make the final (Tsonga, Gonzalez, Baghdatis, Schuettler etc.). This has been my angle for all bets; Juan Martin Del Potro @ 51 Sportingbet Placed this one last year but can still get 41 I think. Had a breakout year last year and continued that in Auckland this week. With the exception of Federer he has a very good draw and if Safin does knock out Federer then I feel Del Potro is almost the favourite to make the final from the bottom half of the draw. Gael Monfils @ 67 Centrebet Beat Nadal recently and IMO he has the type of game that will really ignite the Melbourne crowd and get them behind him, much in the same way as Tsonga and Baggy in the past. Has very strong fitness and that will serve him well given the heat and the fact that it's the start of the season. Draw isn't too bad, with most of the dangerous floaters in Nadal's eighth of the draw. Sam Querrey @ 1000 Betfair Another one I took at the end of last year and am happier to be on now. Sam is in the third qtr which is IMO the easiest quarter of the draw. Djokovic looks a little fragile, Roddick isn't IMO at the same level of Tsonga, Del Potro etc. and whilst Nalbandian is in good form I can't help but feel this is a relatively easier quarter. Sam's big serve should see him competitive against these seeds should he meet them.

no way dude it'l b btween da fedex, nudull or murrey. dah ... good that use got ace tiperers like me. ;) Just thought I'd get in first mate. I'm sure some total f/wit wouldn't be too far away otherwise. Good luck, they look some interesting shouts :hope.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Cheers Ash. Am fully expecting the 'you're made comments' - I'm just waiting for the day I can brag to them about my no hoper that won. Saw your Radwanska bet has come into 1.90 on Centrebet, looks a really good spot there. Bottom half of the Women's draw looks pretty tough, think Safina got a pretty good draw so might take a nibble on her.

[Ashtee]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Radwanska over Kuznetsova: Unfortunately the 3.25 posted at SP didn't last long. The originally bet was a half stake thinking I might spread the commitment on her with a couple other attractive H2H's. Centrebet got jumpy when I had a second bite and they moved it to 2.95 - still a great price but was into 1.85 the pair before long. I normally go to Day 1 or 2 but with mid thirties forecast I'll give it a big miss. All that Aussie, Aussie, Aussie crap in that heat, I'll probably snap, and whack someone. Last year decided to arrive later and stay through the evening session only to find the masive MCG carpark was declared full (which it wasn't :puke) and spend fourty minutes lapping every block within 3/4 mile of the tennis. Finally fluked a park then before I could swing my car out the lights behind changed, so I had to wait and hold up one lane, then every single one gave me a blast and the killer stare on the way past :$. Even the cabbie didn't understand, the prcik :lol. Anyway, I might leave it till Thursday. Bit cooler and there won't be any Aussies left in the draw by then ;). :ok

[heret0win]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb murray for mind to win the open. dont see him being beaten , but if i had 10k to spend on the AO id put abit on Verdasco. hes a man in HOT HOT form.

[searchinio]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb

You're wrong here mate, Schwank had beaten the great Gilles Simon himself in R32.Vienna., in Metz he had beaten Hanescu, Almagro...

I was referring to outdoor hardcourts...

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb HRBATY @ 1.76 Betfair. Hrbaty was playing some great stuff in the Hopman Cup against quality opposition, he tanked in Auckland then comfortably came through qualifying here. He's got class, a great record in this tournament and should handle the heat well. Isner's slam record is poor, after 3rd round US Open 2007 he lost 1st round in all 4 last year, including a battering in Aus by Santoro. SANTORO @ 4.05 Pinnacle. Not sure Ferrero deserves to be this much of a fav. Santoro can still do some damage, and has a decent record here. He was hammered by Nadal in his only match of the year but I don't think that has too much bearing on this game. Ferrero was reasonable against Kohlschreiber last week but still don't think he's solid enough these days to be this short. GARCIA LOPEZ @ 2.25 Stan James. Nice price on GGL here I feel, nothing between these guys. Garcia Lopez has reached at least the 2nd round for the past 4 years here, whereas Calleri mixes 1st and 2nd round losses. Garcia Lopez hasn't played any warm up tournaments which is a bit of a concern but I'm willing to overlook it. Calleri lost 1st round the past 2 weeks and also lost him last 4 matches of last year. PIRONKOVA @ 1.645 Pinnacle. Pironkova is improving on hard courts, has got some decent wins already this year and should be too solid here. Sprem had massive potential but never fulfilled it and nowadays just seems like an unforced error machine. She came through qualifying but didn't really beat anyone of note and I can't see her winning this. KEOTHAVANG @ 2.75 Paddy Power. This is definately a winnable match for Anne. She's started the year in very good form and has a great chance at a big scalp here. Chakvetadze finished last year poorly and started this year with an awful loss to Suarez Navarro who was then readily beaten by Keothavong. Gulf in class here, but Chak's head doesn't seem right and that gives Anne a big chance. Looks like missed the early value as 3.00 was readily available yesterday. I'll look into some 3-0's later.

[Matt]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb

Many years in the past a dark horse emerges from the field to make the final (Tsonga, Gonzalez, Baghdatis, Schuettler etc.). This has been my angle for all bets;

Exactly what I was thinking today, just trying to find a couple of long shots to make this intresting.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb

I normally go to Day 1 or 2 but with mid thirties forecast I'll give it a big miss. All that Aussie, Aussie, Aussie crap in that heat, I'll probably snap, and whack someone.

For some reason, I always thought you lived in WA :lol Was going through a few articles earlier and got this from one of them: "TAB Sportsbet's Gary Davies said one punter had backed 2005 Australian Open champ Marat Safin ($101) to win more than $50,000." Who stakes $500 on someone like Safin and doesn't use Betfair where he is 3x the price? Mind boggling... Whoever said Verdasco, still strongly considering him. In very hot form and must be feeling good after going to deuce with Ivanovic the past few months. Was put off by his H2H with Murray initially but may overlook that before tournament starts.

[Ashtee]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb

For some reason' date=' I always thought you lived in WA :lol [/quote']No ... clean criminal record as a matter of fact :loon. Anyone else like Marta Domachowska @ 2.76 Pinnacle v Sania Mirza (coming back from injury)?

[heret0win]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb is it me, or shud fed be paying more then a $0.01? seppi is a decent player, and well worth haven poo change on. i can see a upset here.

[AndrewMurray]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb i am scared to place any bet, first round, difficult to predict players behaviour, its not clear yet, the form and the fitness for almost all i could suggest though, that murray and monfils may do well job, if luck and circumstances push them nothing for me ...no bet affair this first round, i wouldnt though suggest hewitt against anybody,especially against marvellous at his day gonzales, a player he reached the final two years ago, gonzales at his day, would destroy everybody, including hewitt of course, NO BET I will watch the baghdatis v benneteau match, without any betting involving, baggy didnt convince me yet, he is only at 60% of his level-and that only in last match against pathetic and poor cilic- the match here has a lot of parameters, including a rivalty from the roland garros 2006 match, baghdatis is looking for a big revenge, what a better opportunity tis one :tongue2 but still NO BET for me good luck to all !...i will place money when i will be comfortable to do it :ok

[AndrewMurray]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb balanced draw indeed i see a lot of potentially tricky games for all top4 guys personally i dont beleive in nadal, so three out of four, have to deal with some tricky games in various phases of the slam...this slam is famous for upsets, even more than ever, this year may provide an upset...who? monfils? why not ...but i am not sure about his personality and his mental strength, nalbandian? why not, besides he gave the lesson for several times to almost all big guys, -but not to all- Tsonga? why not, providing he is not injured, Del Potro, why not, but providing that he grew up, his mental strength is unproven Gonzalez? srange to beleive, but nothing is impossible for gonzo, a matter of two good performances at the begining, and then is unstoppable Gulbis? oowwooo hard to beleive this , but certenly he can doo serious damages to all big guys if they meet Baghdatis? if only starts well-similar gonzo case- he needs two victories, and then another unstoppable horse, key and deciding factor are the first two rounds, after, nothing is impossible good luck boys, the aussie open promises you a packege full of upsets and surprises lets see :ok

[keliot]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Troicki 3-0 @ 2.00 on boylesports. A talented young Serb up against claycourter Martin. Troicki lost to Rafa last year (7-6, 7-5, 6-1) in the first round while Martin didn't make it through qualies last year (lost to some 1000+ ranked guy) and was beaten 6-0,6-0.6-1 by Murray here two years ago. I don't think the score will be that emphatic but I can't see Martin getting much off Troicki's serve on this surface. The Serb has 37 aces from 39 service games so far this year so if he serves well, he should get plenty of free points.

[RocknRolla]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Haas @ 1.6 Can't miss that 'dropped' price for Haas in first round of a slam. He is much more experienced player who surely will know how to handle against young 'clay pl.'.Schwank shown some resistance last year in the 1st of USopen taking one game in his match vs. Tursunov,but nothing more.It will be big surprise to me,if he could take more than one this time,too! Golubev @ 1.5 I like this 'uprising form' guy.He bring me good profit few times(can't forget his performance in St.Petersburg last year,wins over Safin,O.Rochus,Hanescu in straight sets:notworthy)I believe that he is in good form for AO and this should be easy walkover for the Russian! Also like the look of: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] and a few bankers in my opinion: Dulko Penneta Tipsarevic Chardy Del Potro Soderling Troicki Verdasco Gasquet Gulbis I've already bet on every selection in this post :hope! :cheers

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Lopez v Muller OVER 40.5 games @ 1.926 Pinnacle. This looks good for an over. Both lefties, both big servers and you'd just expect it to be tight. Decent chance of 5 sets here, or at least a tight 4 setter. They met here in 2006 with Lopez coming through in 4 sets, 41 games. Robredo v Reynolds OVER 34.5 games @ 1.83 Will Hill. Fancy Bobby to keep this close. He ended last year well winning a challenger then started this year qualifying in Brisbane before losing to Nishikori, then qualifying in Auckland, beating Hernandez before losing to Soderling in 3 sets. That's pretty decent and he's a big server who will cause Robredo problems. Robredo started the year beating Melzer before being very poor against Ancic and remains unconvincing. They met in US Open 2007, Robredo coming through in 29 games but Reynolds is better now and Robredo not as good.

[heret0win]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb

Lopez v Muller OVER 40.5 games @ 1.926 Pinnacle. This looks good for an over. Both lefties' date= both big servers and you'd just expect it to be tight. Decent chance of 5 sets here, or at least a tight 4 setter. They met here in 2006 with Lopez coming through in 4 sets, 41 games.

quality call, last set almost went for 40 games :P well done on that. for me i have money on: tipseravic - fish (won) - Robredo(won) - Tomic (my boy) - Hew V Gon game over 40 games - Djokic (won) & Verdasco. all in 1 multi :) so far so good . wish me luck :)

[WinningTipster]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Hi guys, 1 bet for AUSTRALIAN OPEN: MURRAY TO WIN AUSTRALIAN OPEN @ 3.95 ON BETFAIR In my opinion, Murray is a favorite to win every single match. His overall fitness over 5 sets remains questionable but worth to take a risk at high odds. Murray is very efficient in disposing lower-ranked players, he simply forces most of them into unforced errors. In regard to top 5 players: 1. Federer - Murray has an excellent record against him winning the last 4. Murray is just too strong for him from the baseline at the moment. 2. Nadal - probably has the best chance of beating Murray but still Murray has won the last 2 matches against him. In my opinion, Nadal seems to be too aggressive on hard courts, neglecting his clay court style and making too much errors for his style of play, hence hard court losses to Murray, Monfils, Seppi, etc. 3. Djokovic is out of formm in 2008 struggling with consistency, so it remains questionable if he will reach the SF-Finals stage. Anyways, Murray has won both last matches. 4. Davydenko out of the tournament 5. Roddick - 6:2 overall record to Murray.

[jeffers]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Fed looked good tonight, and hungry. Decent performance first up that was. :ok I'm on him outright at 3.50, way too big a price to turn down on the best player in the World, who just had a slight off year due to not being 100%. Also had a sniff on Verdasco e/w, but can't see that hapenning now after the draw... I'm going on Wednesday, should be a good day out. :ok Can anyone tell me which semi Fed would play (if he gets there obviously)...the Thurs or Friday one?? I've got tickets to both, but will probably sell the one he's not at.

[AndrewMurray]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb djokovic,roddick and all other guys of the third quarter are probable federer opponents at semi final...i wouldnt bet such an event, there are plenty of players positioned at third quarter...with quality to upset at any time

[AndrewMurray]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb hey, and Nalbandian :clap

[LockStockLad]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb Not much in the way of value bets for tonights games.......bar MASSU to beat Almagro. 3.75 seems to high imo, Almagro hasnt done anything note worthy of late, losing in straights to Querrey last week (albeit an eventual finalist) but hes had some close encounters with Massu (former Olympic Champ!!) and Id have made him slightly shorter to cause an upset. Other bets that look interesting : Hewitt on home turf to beat a pretty cold Gonzalez of late - 1.9 to win Haas (already been mentioned on here) to use his experience against Schwank - 1.6 Clement to follow his compatriot Santoro into round 2 at 1.9 Nishikori to beat Pothead (Melzer) at 1.9, Nishikori has started the year pretty well and coming off a last 16 spot in the US Open, Melzer seems to have faded of late. All the best peeps!! LSL :beer:nana

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Australian Open 18th Jan - 1st Feb

Can anyone tell me which semi Fed would play (if he gets there obviously)...the Thurs or Friday one?? I've got tickets to both, but will probably sell the one he's not at.

Had a look around and I can't actually find it. I'd guess the Thursday one because they started with the bottom half so the bottom half should play first in each round? But I'm not sure:unsure:unsure.