Gingertipster Posted June 25, 2008 Author Share Posted June 25, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 Was going to put a bet up in the 4:15 but there are too many imponderables. Fitness? Temperament? etc. Will have a look at them in the paddock before betting. Newbury evening racing followed by Salisbury afternoon, might as well sell the house and live in the car! Don't think I'll bother going to Bath this evening. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 3, 2008 Author Share Posted July 3, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 6:20 Newbury £83 @ 4/1 (ladbrokes) Starlarks (25% 3/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 3, 2008 Author Share Posted July 3, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 6:50 Newbury £38 @ 15.5/1 Casilda (13% 13/2) £15 @ 3/1 (Sportingbet) West With The Wind (28% 5/2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 3, 2008 Author Share Posted July 3, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 7:25 Newbury £50 @ 8.6/1 Oasis Breeze (16.5% 5/1) £33 @ 15/8 Saucy Brown (38% 13/8) £9 @ 10/1 Dabbers Chief (11% 8/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 3, 2008 Author Share Posted July 3, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 7:55 Newbury £50 @ 6/1 Vitznau (20% 4/1) £36 @ 7.2/1 Eisteddfod (15% 11/2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 3, 2008 Author Share Posted July 3, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 9:00 Newbury £35 each way @ 5/1 (paddy Power) Dazzling Light bigger prices are available on exchanges but not each way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 4, 2008 Author Share Posted July 4, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 9:10 Salisbury £63 @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes) Mekong Melody (20% 4/1) £14 @ 9/2 (ladbrokes) Tina's Best (21% 4/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 4, 2008 Author Share Posted July 4, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 7:35 Salisbury £100 @ 5/2 (generally) Press The Button (32% 85/40) Have also got a saver on the Boyle second string Mission Control but the price has gone now. Suggest a saver if it goes back to around 4/1 or 9/2 mark. Wish I'd worked the race out sooner, with Mission C coming down from 6's. Think Jim Boyle should have a one two here. The selection almost won at over 100/1 for me a couple of years ago (2nd at Goodwood). Hope he can make all with MC on his tailboard. The others have been disappointing lately though Tri Nations is unexposed and Penang Cinto's trainer is in better form now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 4, 2008 Author Share Posted July 4, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 9:10 Quotation is very short for what he has done, though trainer has a good record here. May improve for the drop in trip. Saw her run at Salisbury displaying a round action, not ideal on firm. Would imagine may need rain to run. Mekong Melody ran a little disappointing last time but the trainer is in much better form now and I liked him a lot when seeing him at Goodwood, nice type. Tina's Best has a very good record on a firm surface and would not want much rain. Ran well under Ryan Moore last time, hopefully Haddon Frost can get as much out of her. One worry I have is where the pace is. Maraasi and Maybe I Will have raced prominently before. One of them could get a soft lead. Have looked at the first race but question marks about ground, fitness etc. Will have to look at them in the paddock and to post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 4, 2008 Author Share Posted July 4, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 9:10 Contd. Additions £11 @ 8/1 Maybe I Will (12.5% 7/1) £5 @ 22/1 Maraasi (6.5% 15/1) £4 @ 9/2 Tina's Best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 3:20 Sandown £62 @ 5/1 (corals) Pipedreamer (20% 4/1) Goes on the ground, stays the trip, improving fast. As long as there is a sound pace has an outstanding chance. Campanologist and Multidimentional will need a test at the trip so should be truly run. Mount Nelson runs as though may be suited by the longer trip but is not bred for it. Unexposed, I have Mount Nelson, Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer as my 4/1 co favourites. Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer are closely matched on their Ascot form. But Pipedreamer is the bigger price. Multidimentional improved in the Hardwicke (at 1 1/2 miles) but had the run of the race. The shorter trip and with Campanologist to take him on, may be against him. Campanologist was flattered last time, setting a slow pace and kicking off the turn in the King Ed. Will be harder for him coming back down in trip. Literato has not been in the same form for Godolphin and is only small. May not have trained on. Possibly at his very best on good or softer. Rob Roy has wisely been given a break, possibly best fresh but his temperament and form does not look good enough. Maraahel's record in Group 1's is poor, often placed, never wins. Stotsfold looks up against it in this company. My prices to beat and bookies price (+ mark up). Mount Nelson 21.25% 4/1 (100/30), Pipedreamer 21.25% 4/1 (100/30), Phoenix Tower 21.25% 4/1 (100/30), Multidimentional 13% 13/2 (11/2), Campanologist 7.5% 13/1 (10/1), Maraahel 5.5% 18/1 (14/1), Literato 5.5% 18/1 (14/1), Rob Roy 3.5% 33/1 (22/1), Stotsfold 1.25% 80/1 (40/1). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 5, 2008 Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 My prices to beat and bookies price (+ mark up). Mount Nelson 21.25% 4/1 (100/30), Pipedreamer 21.25% 4/1 (100/30), Phoenix Tower 21.25% 4/1 (100/30), Not sure I understand this Ginge, you say Pipedreamers price to beat and bookies price 4/1 (10/3) yet you got 5/1 at Corals. I would have thought if you think 3 horses have the same chance of winning its a no bet race? Good luck anyway, braver than me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 Not sure I understand this Ginge, you say Pipedreamers price to beat and bookies price 4/1 (10/3) yet you got 5/1 at Corals. I would have thought if you think 3 horses have the same chance of winning its a no bet race? Good luck anyway, braver than me. Billy, I believe Mount Nelson, Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer all have a 21.25% chance of winning the Eclipse. As 20% = 4/1 and 22% = 7/2 I have rounded down the figure and counted them as 4/1 chances. I want better than 4/1 to back any of those three horses. As Pipedreamer is the only one of them available at bigger than 4/1 (5/1 with Corals) then Pipedreamer is the bet because I believe it is value at 5/1. Had the other two horses been 5/1 would've backed them too, but they aren't. Every horse has a price I would back them at, Pipedreamer at better than 4/1, even Stotsfold at better than 80/1 etc. You need to win better than 20% of your bets at 4/1 to make a profit, 1.25% at 80/1 (1.23456 to be exact). The figure in brackets is my price to beat (in this case 4/1) plus a bookies mark up (in this case 2%) 21.25% + 2% = 23.25% = 100/30. So the 4/1 becomes 100/30. So if I were acting as a bookie I'd offer 100/30 about Pipedreamer to win the race, not as Corals are offering 5/1. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 5, 2008 Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 Ok Ginge, cheers for that, it read like one was your price and the other was the available price at the bookies. My mistake. 4/1 the field at Paddys so you may get 9/2 the other two somewhere by racetime. Must be easier races somewhere tomorrow to have a go at though;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 3:00 Haydock £63 @ 11/2 (Stan James) Ezima (20% 4/1) £18 @ 7/2 Turbo Linn (25% 3/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 4:30 Sandown £25 @ 10.5/1 Balken Knight (11% 8/1) £23 @ 11.5/1 Raincoat (10.5% 17/2) £18 @ 11/4 Samuel (30% 9/4) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 3:20 Sandown (additions) £17 @ 4/1 Phoenix Tower (22.25% 7/2) extra £5 @ 5.6/1 Pipedreamer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 3:10 Newmarket £55 @ 11/2 (William Hill) Heaven Sent (18% 9/2) £20 @ 16/1 (blue square) Nahoodh (8% 12/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 Darjina is probably not at her best on soft going and has had travel problems. Infallible may not stay a truly run mile on softish ground. Something went wrong with Finscael Beo last time and this is her third race within a month. Last year her form deteriorated when running back quickly. Heaven Sent probably would've been a good winner at Royal Ascot held on for a bit longer (off a strong pace). Progressive, seems to act on any going and can front run or be held up. Nahoodh ran o.k. at Ascot but the trainer was in poor form at the time, now much better. Possibly also not able to quicken on the firm ground. Unproven on a soft surface but worth taking the chance at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 2:35 Newmarket £80 @ 100/30 (sportingbet, 3.2/1 on betfair) Lucky Leigh (27% 11/4) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 The going is not that testing (good) and the form horse is over priced at present. Heart Shaped is the obvious danger if ignoring her Ascot run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 2:00 Newmarket £62 @ 6.2/1 Classic Blade (20% 4/1) £10 @ 7.6/1 Effort (14% 6/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 1:30 Newmarket £27 @ 14.5/1 Hobby (10% 9/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 10, 2008 Author Share Posted July 10, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 2:00 Newmarket (addition) £27 @ 8/1 (sportingbet) Classic Blade Bets like this don't come around that often. So have put a bigger than usual bet on. Impressive at Salisbury on good-firm last time but won on good-soft before that. Has a markedly round action usually favoured by soft ground. Stamina might be a problem in the ground but may be able to get a soft lead. Improving and has much better form (at present) than the talking horse Sayif. Who is only that price through home reputation and the trainers winner in this last year. Prolific is a danger, ran well at Ascot on firm. Will he be as good on soft? Got beat on good-soft. Running on at the Royal meeting and should benefit by an extra furlong. Effort is interesting, Johnston was in poor form at Ascot yet Effort ran well, improvement looks likely and has run well on good-soft. I expect Classic Blade to start around half his current price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 10, 2008 Author Share Posted July 10, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 1:30 Newmarket With Hobby now a non-runner. £40 each way @ 5/1 Enroller (25% 4/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 10, 2008 Author Share Posted July 10, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 That was with Canbet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 10, 2008 Author Share Posted July 10, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 The 3:10 is a nightmare. Anna looks a bit short on what she has done but her main rivals Papal Bull and Sagara are both enigmatic performers. Lucarno and Lion Sands may not be at their best on soft, though Lion Sands price looks over priced even so. Petara Bay is not up to the task on all known form. So may be Anna is not such a bad price after all. Will wait until late to bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 10, 2008 Author Share Posted July 10, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 3:10 Newmarket £35 @ 9/1 Lucarno (12.5% 7/1) £34 @ 15/2 Lion Sands (13% 13/2) £16 @ 9/2 Sagara (20% 4/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted July 10, 2008 Author Share Posted July 10, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 3:10 Ground is now similar to when Lucarno won the Voltigeur. Is the likely front runner and may be able to nick it off the front. Pulled too hard tracking the pace in France. Should be the type to improve as a 4yo (big). Lion Sands is improving, may not act on the ground but at the price is worth taking a chance on. Sagara is a dog but a good one. May like the softer ground and ran well enough in the Gold Cup. Trouble is doubtful he'll get a truly run race. Papal Bull is another dog but ran very well in the Coronation Cup. Again may not get the truly run race he seems to need. Anna Pavlova would've been the one on soft or heavy, but is short considering a slowly run race may not play to her strengths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kamo Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 2:00 Newmarket (addition) £27 @ 8/1 (sportingbet) Classic Blade :clap £35 @ 9/1 Lucarno (12.5% 7/1) :clap Excellent work there mate great writeups :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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