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Gingers (Flat) Winners 08

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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08

Was not going to start this thread until later. But as I have backed this (at a big price) for the 2000, thought this can win a handicap. See the 5/2 has gone now so will say 9/4. 3:10 Newmarket £114 @ 9/4 Stimulation (36.5% 7/4) 1st Return £370.50 + £256.50 Profit Ginge
Phew! That was close. Do think a strongly run race at a mile will suit Stimulation. Though he should not be any shorter than 25/1 for the Guineas. Stakes £114 Return £370.50 Profit £256.50 (225% Profit) 100% Strike Rate;)
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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 Going for my 6th win on the bounce (run began in the National). Though some were only saver bets. Gone for an outsider with a saver on the fav. Again have backed both of these for the Guineas. River Proud does like running at or near the front. Hopefully he will get a bit of cover because there may be a strong wind in their faces. He was one of the best looking 2 year olds I saw last year (my only 2yo bet on debut). Has the build to improve this season. Ravens Pass is my main bet for the Guineas itself. Hope the winds dry the ground for Gosdens charge as he is best on a sound surface. Times today suggest going was on the soft side of good. Is also made to be a better 3yo. Both trainers are in terrific form. 3:45 Newmarket £20 @ 26/1 (betfair) River Proud (9% 10/1) £20 @ 6/4 (ladbrokes) Ravens Pass (43% 11/8)

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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 Have to be against Bougereau at current prices. Mountain Pride is from a stable in good form (always is this time of year) with a positive jockey booking (Frankie). Ran well on a soft surface when 3rd in a Newmarket maiden to the well thought of Yankadi. Will be suited by the distance. Better Hand is interesting at around 18/1 but the trainer has a poor record first time out, and so does Swinburn (Staying On). 3:15 Newbury £57 @ 4.9/1 Mountain Pride (22% 7/2)

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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 1:40 Newbury Sure many will go for Elmeleeha here with her 2nd to Infallible, deserves to be fav. But I saw Clowance here last year and she looked the type to improve at 3yrs. £36 @ 7/1 Clowance (15% 11/2) 4:55 Newbury £50 @ 5.4/1 Tighnabruaich (20% 4/1) Houghton will have his followers being a half brother to Yellowstone, but I like Tighnabruaich (just don't ask me to spell it again). Thought good enough to start off at York last season before a 2nd at Edinburgh to Endless Luck. Bred to stay well and the York run was on a soft surface.

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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 3:50 Newbury The fav is the very well bred Changing Skies, saw her finish just in front of Clownce at Newbury. Did look like a 2 year old that day and may not improve as much as pedigree suggests. Burn The Breeze comes from a stable in better form than the favs. Could get a soft lead out in front. Price makes it easy to take a chance on the going (all three runs on firm side of good). £50 @ 5/1 (Betfred) Burn The Breeze (20% 4/1)

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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 All races worked out to good-soft soft in places or soft good-soft in places. First two horses are unproven on a soft surface though their prices are worth taking the chance with. 2:15 Newbury £30 @ 7.8/1 Zaham £30 @ 8/1 Tranquil Tiger £10 @ 9.5/1 Ivy Creek 3:25 Newbury £22 @ 23/1 Don't Forget Faith (10.5% 17/2) £12 @ 12.5/1 Lady Deauville (10.5% 17/2) £20 @ 2.15/1 Muthabara (36.5% 7/4) 4:00 Newbury £20 @ 15.5/1 Shallal (9% 10/1) £25 @ 6.8/1 Beacon Lodge (14.75% 6/1) £26 @ 7/4 (Paddy Power) Confront (38.5% 13/8) Will do write ups in the morning provided I have time.

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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 2:15 Newbury This race boils down to two things, effectiveness on a soft surface and pace in the race. Despite 15 runners not many like to be up with the pace, just the Henry Cecil duo and Zaham. Indeed a lot like to be held up as late as possible, so there might be an advantage for front runners. Particularly with the wind at their backs. Zaham has never run on a soft surface but his price makes it worth taking a chance. On e of my favourite horses, a real trier. Progressed throughout last year (first season to race) and I have him down as one possible to go to the top this term. Disappointed on reappearance but drawn wide, raced wide and could not get customary prominent position. Then suffered an overreach, run best ignored. If all is well can run well here. Stable in good form. Tranquil Tiger comes from the very much in form yard of Henry Cecil. Ran o.k. on soft on two year old debut and below form only other run on a soft surface (had excuses). If equally effective on it the surface will bring his stamina in to play. Saw him at Salisbury and looked the sought to improve at four years. Ivy Creek as Mowgli said in his excellent assessment is consistent on a soft surface. Has won first time out. It would not be a surprise though to see a more progressive rival beat him. Apart from Zaham the other one on my 10 to follow short list is Malt Or Mash. Had the form to win at Lingfield on reappearance and duly did. I was surprised last year that such a big horse acted around Goodwood. That size may take him to better things this term. However, connections have said will not run if the ground gets softer and improvement has come on a sound surface. Whatever happens today is one to look out for. Regime is the other possible improver. Travelled well in the St Simon here on his last three year old start but possibly did not get home in the good-soft ground. May not want much more rain. Stable in good form. Royal And Regal may come in to it if the heavens open but may need further. Gower Song was in tremendous form in Dubai but may not get the run of the race here. 3:25Newbury Muthabara is the talking horse of the 1000 Guineas but has a sound chance on form here. Goes well on a soft surface. I was almost tempted to back her for the 1000 after her impressive five length debut here last year. Clearly goes well fresh. Nadoodh has the best form, improved significantly to win the Lowther on Good going. Had run reasonably on good-soft but her action suggests she may be better on a sound surface. Trainer is not in great form and (normally bullish) seems to suggest she will need the race. Has pulled a bit, and being fresh that is a worry too. Michita could be anything or nothing, seems to be priced up on trainers form and reputation. Lady Deauville was not far behind Muthabara at Sandown and went on to run with distinction in France. Goes really well on a soft surface. If she were trained by a top trainer would be much shorter. Having said that Paul Blockley is not in great form. Don't Forget Faith is a rangy sort, the type that could improve significantly at three years. Won on debut last season (beat Visit) on a soft surface, so runs well fresh. Fifth behind Zarkava in Marcel Boussac. Stables runners are running well enough and can run well at a big price. 4:00 Newbury Don't know whether to hope Confront wins easily or not, have backed him for the Derby. Beat Free Handicap winner Stimulation at Ascot on a soft surface (pair well clear) and was ante-post fav for the Racing Post Trophy (not run). Ground should bring stamina in to play but there is a big question on the pace here. May have to make his own running (raced prominently before), if not can be outspeeded. Sir Gerry has a form chance but comes from the Fanshawe yard which has a poor record pre-summer and had no three year olds win first time up last term. Is proven on the ground and should stay. May not be suited by the pace of the race, being held up in a (possibly) slowly run race. Beacon Lodge like his stable companion Don't Forget Faith has the size to be a better three year old. Lucky to beat Stimulation last season here but does not have much to find with the favourite on that form. Has tactical speed and soft ground form. Paco Boy also has tactical speed but no soft ground form. Had to come from last to first on reappearance and is much better than that bare form (but had best form in the race anyway). Stable not in as good form now as it was then. Shallal won a hot maiden at Glorious Goodwood, always up with the pace on his last of two starts. Should stay this far and might be the one to set the pace (likely big advantage). Ability to handle conditions has to be taken on trust but looks over priced here. Without A prayer is the other one who has been prominent before. Improved in the Acomb when held up but has a tactically astute jockey aboard (Seb). May not have enough pace without a true test. Has something to find but is from one of the best trainers in the country (if not many know it yet).

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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 1:40 Newbury £36 @ 7/1 Clowance (15% 11/2) 1st Return £288.00 price 12.5% 7/1 £252.00 Profit 3:15 Newbury £57 @ 4.9/1 Mountain Pride price 16.9% 5/1 - £57 Deficit 3:50 Newbury £50 @ 5/1 (betfred) Burn The Breeze 1st Return £300.00 price 16.7% 5/1 £250.00 Profit 4:55 Newbury £50 @ 5.4/1 Tighnabruaich (20% 4/1) 1st Return £320.00 price 16.7% 5/1 £270.00 Profit Days Stakes £193 Days Return £908:00 Days Profit £715.00

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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 2:15 Newbury £30 @ 7.8/1 Zaham 2nd (should've got the race in the stewards) £30 @ 8/1 Tranquil Tiger £10 @ 9.5/1 Ivy Creek Combined price 32% 85/40 - £70 Deficit 3:25 Newbury £22 @ 23/1 Don't Forget Faith (10.5% 17/2) £12 @ 12.5/1 Lady Deauville (10.5% 17/2) 3rd £20 @ 2.15/1 Muthabara (36.5% 7/4) 1st Return £63.00 Combined Price 43.3% 11/8 stakes £54 £9 Profit 4:00 Newbury £20 @ 15.5/1 Shallal (9% 10/1) £25 @ 6.8/1 Beacon Lodge (14.75% 6/1) £26 @ 7/4 (Paddy Power) Confront (38.5% 13/8) Combined Price 55.3% 5/6 -£71 Deficit Days Stakes £195 Days Return £63.00 Days Deficit £132.00

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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 2000 Guineas Write ups followed by my price to beat on good ground. Alfathaa Saw him win his maiden at Newbury, nice type, should make a better three year old. Backed it for the Royal Lodge, only 5th just 1 ½ lengths behind City Leader. Was going to run in a trial but pulled out (I believe due to a slight setback. 1.75% 60/1 Bahamian Kid Should not be allowed to race. 16 lengths behind the winner in a Doncaster 7f soft ground maiden on debut. Next to no chance, won't take any price. Dream Eater 3 ½ lengths 6th to Dark Angel in the Middle Park. Does not look good enough. Bred to just about stay the trip but races as though won't. Sometimes takes a pull and seemed barely to get 7f as a juvenile. Yet to race on a soft surface. 0.5% 200/1 Fireside Has been backed in recent weeks. Trainer is usually good at identifying potential in his string. Form as yet does not add up to much. 6th of 19 on debut in a hot Irish Sales race, before winning his maiden at Newmarket. By a miler (Dr Fong) out of a mare by another (Zafonic) so should stay. Both of those (I believe) were better on a sound surface, raced so far on good-firm. Evidently well thought of. 2.5% 40/1 Henrythenavigator Very well bred, won the Coventry coming from the back of the field on a firm surface. Then ran poorly on very soft going in the Phoenix Stakes, before running well enough to be 3rd to New Approach and Curtain Call (some give underfoot). So has some good form but does look just short of top class. Difficult to see why he should reverse places with the favourite. Only the price he is due to who trains him (poor value) and might not want too much more rain. 5.75% 16/1 Ibn Khaldun Improvement came last year on good or softer although does have a decent action. Won a modest Racing Post after progressing quickly through the ranks. If improvement has been maintained will go close here, especially if the ground is on the soft side. Is rated by connections a better horse now than stable companions Fast Company and Rio De La Plata who were not beaten far by New Approach last year. 22.2% 7/2 Moynahan Impressed me in the paddock at Goodwood on debut, too green to win. Then won what is usually one of the best maidens around (the Moorestyle) at York. From a good mile family and by Johannesburg, should stay the trip. Has potential to improve (needs to) and is proffered to stable companions River Proud and Luck Money.2.5% 40/1 New Approach Has done nothing wrong in his races but has shown bits of temperament off it. Has a pony companion in the paddock and to post, once had to be backed (a la George Washington style) / refused to go under archways, has two handlers in the paddock. Said not to be going for the Derby, which may be because connections are worried about the prelims there. If so Newmarket could also be a concern. If backing him I suggest waiting as late as possible. Still unbeaten in five starts at two. Won the Dewhurst with the best 2 year olds (including Raven's Pass) behind. Impeccably bred. Front runner before tracked the pace on his final start. Winner on a firm and a soft surface. 28% 5/2 Perfect Stride Was going to run in a trial before taken out due to the ground being too soft, raced only on a sound surface to date. Not certain to stay on breeding, by Oasis Dream. Dam mile winner but related to mainly 7f horses. Won maiden then looked as if he would keep his unbeaten record but got collared by a late closer, in a Leicester minor event. Potential to improve and from an excellent stable but because of that is at a shorter price than form merits. 2.5% 40/1 Plan Exceptionally well bred, will stay, by Storm Cat out of a Breeders Cup winner. Impressive winner of his second of two starts in an ordinary maiden by 5 ½ lengths. Raced only on good. Needs to improve considerably but does have potential. O'Brien 2nd string. 1% 100/1 Raven's Pass Said to be a doubtful stayer but only just lost out (by short head) to a “stayer” Twice Over on good going in the Craven, not under maximum pressure. Did travel well there as he did in the Dewhurst before finding little on what was thought unsuitable going (good-soft). Impressive winner of the Solario, by 7 lengths easing down to subsequent Royal Lodge winner / Racing Post 2nd City Leader (on good-firm). Would not want much more rain and is probably best on a sound surface. Was last to post in the Craven, wore crossed nose band (trainers runners often do) and blanketed for stall entry. So may have a bit of temperament about him. If not on already, may be best to wait until the going is known. 23.2% 100/30 Scintillo Is a Group 1 winner (in Italy) but was well behind Raven's Pass in the Craven (9th of 10) Stays a mile well and will be suited by as much rain as possible (test of stamina at the trip). Acts on a firm and a soft surface. Seems fully exposed. 0.25% 400/1 Stimulation will be much better suited by the mile here than a slowly run 7f of his reappearance (despite being by Choisir). Did well to get up on the line there to beat the well ridden Fat Boy. Would have won the Horris Hill with a clear run on his last two year old start. One of the best looking two year olds I saw and can improve again from his (still) under rated trainer. No going worries and should be in front of Henrythenavigator in the betting. 7.5% 13/1 Strike The Deal I saw win the Richmond from Fat Boy, not much of him and possibly the type to be best at two. Also 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (1m) and 5th UAE Derby, weakening (1m1f). Despite those runs gives the impression does not quite truly stay a mile. Proven on a firm and soft surface though the latter would put more emphasis on stamina. 2.25% 40/1 Stubbs Art Is a horse I like, as a handicapper. Progressive last year and is the sort to do better at three (substantial colt). Once again pulled too hard on reappearance, 5th in the Esher Cup. Stays 1m2f and not beholden to the ground conditions. If he settles could improve but needs to significantly. Runs well at Newmarket. 0.1% 1000/1

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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 Carried over from last season. Already Advised. 2000 Guineas £30 @ 12/1 (ante-post) Raven's Pass If you have not backed it yet I still make it value (if on good ground) at anything bigger than 100/30. More bets now. £15 @ 23/1 Stimulation (7.5% 13/1) £2 @ 84/1 Moynahan (2.5% 40/1) £10 @ 5/1 Ibn Khaldun (22% 7/2)

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Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 2:45 Newmarket This might be a difficult race to get right as there does not look to be a natural front runner. Passage Of Time probably needs a reasonable pace, being more a staying filly than her opponents. Might have to go on herself and if not may struggle. She won first time up in the Musidora last term and has the best form but not by much. Her price looks too short. Heaven Sent ran really well on reappearance and M. Stoute usually improves his four year olds. Fitness advantage and has won slowly run races before. Stays the trip and acts on the ground. Harvest Queen is another who has won slowly run races, coming from last to first in a listed race at Haydock. Raced more prominently for reappearance win last season at Goodwood. Saw her there and has a substantial frame, the sort who may improve again at four. Ran a great race in one of the best fillies races final start, close up 5th in the Sun Chariot. All her good form is on a sound surface and the ground seems to have come right. Stays 1m well and may have more pace than her main rivals if it is a slowly run race (if fit). Represents good value at around 5/1. Of the others Barshiba is not out of it on form, but is best held up in a strongly run race. Cosmodrome has potential but has a deal to find. Seen have not put in the saver. £33 @ 15/8 Heaven Sent (38% 13/8)

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