Sir Puntalot Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 You're welcome, superb english by the way! You write better english than most english people! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 29, 2008 Author Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 I know I write better English than most English people.... I'm actually Scottish :rollin.... I just happen to live in Montenegro at the moment. By the way, your English ain't bad either.... for a Dane :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Explains a few things and I'm not bloody danish! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 30, 2008 Author Share Posted September 30, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 The "system" highlights nothing for midweek.... Norwich was nearly a selection' date=' but didn't quite meet the "value odds" criterion.[/quote'] Good decision.... Norwich lost 2-0 :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 2, 2008 Author Share Posted October 2, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 8, 2008 Author Share Posted October 8, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 8, 2008 Share Posted October 8, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 ..... just trying to get to grips with your workings Grex, having already prodded myself to keep awake.Can you explain further to us dodo's by means of an example on how you arrive at a prospective selection.Might help us follow more closely.Cheers.Merlin.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 8, 2008 Author Share Posted October 8, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Wow, Merlin, you're a real glutton for punishment...... I'm a bit busy at the moment, but I will try to expand on the "theories" next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 8, 2008 Share Posted October 8, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 ..... cheers fella, not been nosey, just genuinely interested in following your selections and well laid out colouring board, and thought that I needed to know something on the selection process.Besides not too many others appear to be interested judging by the lack of response.Cheers.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted October 9, 2008 Share Posted October 9, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Hi Grex, nice progress! If I understand the strategy behind the system correctly...wouldn't that mean that also teams with ratings +2.0/+1.0 would represent a 33.3%difference, same as +0.2/+0.1 or +40.0/+80.0? But the teams around rating 0 should be approximately of equal strength, on the other hand, a +80 rating can only involve teams like Chelsea, Man Utd,...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 10, 2008 Author Share Posted October 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Hi, Robkor...... yes, I take your point. However, the PR ratings very rarely throw up such low values as +2.0/+1.0 or 0.2/0.1. For example, in the current 365stats listing for all leagues, the Home teams are within the range 10.3 to 95.0, and the Aways from 13.0 to 79.0. The "sum" of Home and Away team ratings for each match is within the range 39.7 to 139.0. So, I don't think the extreme examples you quote will ever happen. I adopted this "percentage" approach basically because it produced better results than taking the simple "sum" of the ratings for each match. Of course, Paul Ross' method of producing the ratings is a closely-guarded secret, so it is impossible to put any logic behind either approach. Thanks anyway, Robkor, for your comments..... nice to know somebody is taking an interest.... :ok... by the way, you're not far away from where I'm based..... a 40 minute flight with Adria Airlines ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 17, 2008 Share Posted October 17, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 lot of impressive work here :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 17, 2008 Author Share Posted October 17, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 I wouldn't say that my ratings are a closely guarded secret as such, but of course I don't want the exact details out. They are based on attacking play, the only logical way you do ratings like these. The secret if any is what points you bring into that and how do you weight them. I believe in making the ratings simple, I can assure you they are too. Good luck Grex. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 21, 2008 Author Share Posted October 21, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 A quick question for Paul Ross..... my backtesting is based on 2 sets of historical PR Ratings: A) between September 2005 and April 2006 B) from February 2008 to the present When I do my back-testing I notice a drammatic difference in performance (particulary for "Aways") between the 2 sets of data... the more recent data produces better performance (apart from last weekend, of course!). My question is... did you change the method of calculating the ratings between April 2006 and February 2008 ????.... or perhaps it's just another inexplicable statistical "quirk". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted October 21, 2008 Share Posted October 21, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 I don't believe I changed anything in that period. I was obviously tweaking it at the very beginning, but haven't touched the method since then. :ok I believe very much in having the draw on my side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 21, 2008 Author Share Posted October 21, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 I don't believe I changed anything in that period. I was obviously tweaking it at the very beginning, but haven't touched the method since then. I believe very much in having the draw on my side. Thanks.... regarding the "draw factor", I will do some more back-testing to determine the effect of covering the draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 28, 2008 Author Share Posted October 28, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 30, 2008 Share Posted October 30, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Hi grex, good to see your results improving. My Value bets system is also based loosely on the Paul Ross Ratings System and it is showing a yield on fixed stakes of 5.8%, but the AWAYS is yielding 13% on its own so there is definitely better results in focussing on the Aways. Good luck for this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 30, 2008 Author Share Posted October 30, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Thanks Barrhead...... I'm impressed with the yields on your system. And I agree about the "aways".... my back-testing shows that PR Ratings consistently perform better on "aways" systems. Good luck to you, too, for the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 30, 2008 Author Share Posted October 30, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 On the issue of "covering the draw"..... some interesting facts :zzz BEFORE Draw Cover: "Homes & Aways" Bets 25 "Homes & Aways" yield -6.4% :( "Aways only" Bets 22 "Aways only" yield -18.4% :$ AFTER Draw Cover: "Homes & Aways" Bets 11 "Homes & Aways" yield -0.3% :tongue2 "Aways only" Bets 16 "Aways only" yield +9.4% :loon I know the vast improvement is not all down to the change of system (i.e. "luck" probably plays an important part + fewer number of bets).... but as Paul Ross said in an earlier post on this thread.... "I believe very much in having the draw on my side"..... looks like he could be right :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Nice work you have there Grex. Have you checked whether it would be more profitable to simply take up the DNB option? I understand the odds do differ by abit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Thanks, averick, for your suggestion. Yes, I have spot-checked the DNB odds alternative, but there seems little advantage. Anyway, in order to run the system, I have to download all the 1-X-2 odds from Bet365, so it's simpler for me to apply the Draw Cover method. By the way, for some reason 365stats is not quoting any ratings for Spanish Primera league this weekend.... I'm not sure why, because it has a full programme. Perhaps PR is getting tired ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted November 10, 2008 Share Posted November 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Thanks, averick, for your suggestion. Yes, I have spot-checked the DNB odds alternative, but there seems little advantage. Anyway, in order to run the system, I have to download all the 1-X-2 odds from Bet365, so it's simpler for me to apply the Draw Cover method. By the way, for some reason 365stats is not quoting any ratings for Spanish Primera league this weekend.... I'm not sure why, because it has a full programme. Perhaps PR is getting tired ;) 365stats isn't my site, and I couldn't get that fixed in time. :( I'll be adding the ratings to my other site www.freebetsgalore.com at some point, but it could be a while yet, then I have full control.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Well done Grex. My similar system had a good weekend too and my results show a leaning towards sticking with the Aways although my homes have now started to return a small yield as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 17, 2008 Author Share Posted November 17, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Good to know your "homes" are producing dividends..... you probably have a more straight-forward selection method than I used. But I notice that back-testing data on over 3,000 matches consistently shows that "aways" are more reliable. I wish you continued success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Grex, I don't use Paul Ross ratings, but I use what I guess is a similar approach and my aways yesterday were: Stockport Northampton Lyon Leverkusen Cardiff Tranmere Torquay Dortmund (Friday night) So there is a fair amount of overlap - although I didn't do as well as you did. It will be interesting to compare over the coming months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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