Grex Posted February 3, 2008 Share Posted February 3, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 3, 2008 Author Share Posted February 3, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted February 3, 2008 Share Posted February 3, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Good luck with it mate. I never lay a team without the ratings backing it up anymore. The ratings are subject to interpretation, ie if 2 teams are level rated, but one is 1.70, then it should be layed etc...., but it's open to opinion like I say. I personally layed 7 teams yesterday and only 1 let me down, that was MK Dons who won 5-0! :lol Good luck with the project anyway. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 3, 2008 Author Share Posted February 3, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Thanks for the good wishes, Paul..... and, of course, a special thanks to you for all the work you put into producing the ratings :notworthy I never lay a team without the ratings backing it up anymore. The ratings are subject to interpretation, ie if 2 teams are level rated, but one is 1.70, then it should be layed etc...., but it's open to opinion like I say. My system only identifies "lays" that are backed up by your ratings AND the odds offer good value vs. the predicted probability. I have tried to keep "opinion" out of the equation, and will stick strictly to the statistical predictions. Thanks again :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 5, 2008 Author Share Posted February 5, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System I forgot to mention that the system covers the following 9 leagues: English Premier English Chamionship English 1 English 2 German Bundesliga Italy Serie A Spanish Primera French Ligue 1 Scottish Premier League Only 5 midweek matches (tonight)...... Rochdale - Barnet nearly met the criteria for a home lay. Although Rochdale are 8th and Barnet 16th in the English League 2, it is mainly Rochdale's away form that has got them in that position, while the majority of Barnet's points have been secured on the road (including a recent away defeat of runaway leaders MK Dons). This situation is reflected in PR's ratings of Rochdale 36, Barnet 39). However, I have learned from past experience that, if you are following a statistical system...... stick to it rigidly, and don't let personal opinion sway you. Shall we see. So, no selections tonight - but there is a full programme this weekend, so looking forward to 15+ selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System .... Great start Grex, I will be looking in to monitor the situation as this progresses.Looks like good potential here.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Thanks, Merlin..... but you know me.... the eternal pessimist :\ It won´t last :lol I will continue to drop in on "Return to Oz etc" to see how the various MW Sheets systems perform.... good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 7, 2008 Author Share Posted February 7, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 7, 2008 Author Share Posted February 7, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Just checked my sheets and realised I have missed 2 selections: 09-02-08 E2 Brentford-Shrewsbury Lay Home (lay odds 2.24) Stake 10 09-02-08 E2 Chester-Accrington Lay Home (lay odds 2.28) Stake 10 Good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 9, 2008 Author Share Posted February 9, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 9, 2008 Author Share Posted February 9, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted February 9, 2008 Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Hey. Firstly this is going great.... top start:clap Any chance you can point me in the direction of the all hailed magic rating system. I am REALLY curious as to what it is and how it works. Much appreciated....:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted February 9, 2008 Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Bloody hell mate, great start here! Well done and hope it continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 10, 2008 Author Share Posted February 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Hi, MakDaddy.etc.. the site is http://www.365stats.com I´m sure the Mods won´t mind me quoting the site (I think the owner of both sites is one and the same person!) Thanks, Jaded, for the good wishes... I also hope the good run continues. But I am a realist... this level of yield is not sustainable. In the long-run, I would be very happy to see it level out at 15%, or even 10%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted February 10, 2008 Share Posted February 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Thanks alot however I am not sure how this relates in terms of the system... could someone/ anyone who is has a lil time PM an quick explanation I am sure only a brief one will be required but all i see on this site are stats (even a link will do thanks)...:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 10, 2008 Author Share Posted February 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Once you are in the site, select any league from the drop-down menu under "League Tables", and when the table appears, select "Ratings" at near the top of the page, and...... voila ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 10, 2008 Author Share Posted February 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Have just been looking through my selections for today.... obviously, I´m not going to change anything, but the Home Lay on Sampdoria looks a bit "iffy". Sampdoria have one of the best recent home records, whereas Napoli have the worst away record. Can´t understand why the PR Ratings made them so closely matched. Anyway, I stick to the "system" predictions.... shall we see :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregprowt Posted February 10, 2008 Share Posted February 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Have just been looking through my selections for today.... obviously, I´m not going to change anything, but the Home Lay on Sampdoria looks a bit "iffy". Sampdoria have one of the best recent home records, whereas Napoli have the worst away record. Can´t understand why the PR Ratings made them so closely matched. Anyway, I stick to the "system" predictions.... shall we see :hope:hope graet start to your new system, just watching it myself i thought that selection was weird the PR ratings has it 19.5 in favour of Sampdoria, so not close, perhaps a misread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 10, 2008 Author Share Posted February 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System the PR ratings has it 19.5 in favour of Sampdoria' date=' so not close, perhaps a misread[/quote'] Hi, Gregprowt..... perhaps we´re not looking at the same ratings. If you look at the following link: http://www.365stats.com/football/index.php?p=league&tabletype=rating&div=I1&type=h ...Sampdoria have 37 with Napoli 34... only 3 in favour of Sampdoria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregprowt Posted February 10, 2008 Share Posted February 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System ah, the pages you are using are the overall ratings for the season (i made exactly the same mistake myself) the Paul Ross ratings are just from the teams last 4 matches still your system is going great guns anyway :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 10, 2008 Author Share Posted February 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Yes, Gregprowt, I appreciate that the ratings I have been using are for the overall season. I put more faith in such ratings compared with "the last 4 games" or even "the last 6 games". For me, any team has its ups and downs over a short period... factors such as sendings-off, bad ptch conditions, injuries to key players, involvement in Cup competitions etc. can affect a team´s short-term performance. But the true pedigree of a team is rated over the season. Anyway, as you said, the system "is going great guns" based on the season-ratings. Sampdoria´s result was more in line with the 4-match rating... but perhaps that´s the exception that proves the rule. As a matter of interest, Gregpowt, where do you access the 4-match ratings?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregprowt Posted February 10, 2008 Share Posted February 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System I see what your saying about the season ratings, but the Paul Ross method is all about getting value for the now, who is on a good run and whos out of touch, the true pedigree of a team is over the whole season like you say but every team has a dip in form so when you say I put more faith in such ratings compared with "the last 4 games" or even "the last 6 games". For me, any team has its ups and downs over a short period... factors such as sendings-off, bad ptch conditions, injuries to key players, involvement in Cup competitions etc. can affect a team´s short-term performance this is exactly the thing the Paul Ross method would pick up as those sort of things would not get noticed much in the season ratings, but would in the last 4 games ratings :ok the Paul Ross method is the one Cavelloman has made so succesfull in his posts (which he looks like he is stopping) your system is working fantastic, so keep going :clap perhaps you should just change the name of the thread ;) to get the Paul Ross ratings, got to all fixtures and then in the top right hand corner is a turn ratings on button :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 10, 2008 Author Share Posted February 10, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregprowt Posted February 10, 2008 Share Posted February 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Sorry' date=' but you don´t understand my approach. I [b']know the short-term ratings take into account the recent circumstances, but I do NOT think this is necessarily an accurate indication of how a team will perform in the next match. I reiterate that I have more confidence in the long-term ratings. no problem and good luck :hope was just trying to be helpful. as you had called the system 'Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System' :ok still fab results though :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 10, 2008 Author Share Posted February 10, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Thanks, Gregprowt, for your support. I am sure the ratings that I use are also authored by Paul Ross..... so perhaps I should rename the thread "Paul Ross Long-term Ratings System" ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 11, 2008 Author Share Posted February 11, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System I know you shouldn’t interfere with a winning system, but…… following the exchange of posts with Gregprowt (see above), I had a sleepless night (I know, I should get a life:)) thinking about the relative merits of short-term and long-term rating systems. Although I will stick with my theory that long-term ratings reflect better a team’s pedigree and, therefore, the outcome of it’s next match, I think there may be some value in taking into account the last-4-game ratings as well. So here’s what I propose….. potential selections will continue to be based on long-term ratings. However, I will introduce a “filter†– if the short-term rating conflicts with the long-term rating (e.g. short-term rating difference is significantly positive for a potential Home Lay, and vice versa), then the stake for that selection will be halved. If, after a couple of weeks, it seems to be having a significant impact, then I may reject all the selections with conflicting rating differences. Thanks to Gregprowt for making me think and reconsider :clap. I am also going to disregard the Draw Lays in future. The cut-off criteria were rather “forced†and they are not performing as well as the Home and Away Lays. As a matter of interest, my own “live†testing since 20 January has produced the following returns: Home Lays Bets: 48 Yield: +28.6% :loon Away Lays Bets: 10 Yield: +24.7% :ok Draw Lays Bets: 10 Yield: +6.6% :\ I will introduce the amendments to the system with selections for tomorrow’s matches, which will be posted tomorrow lunch-time. PS. Now that Paul Ross' rating definitely come into the selection process, I trust that you will let me keep the thread title, Gregprowt ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 11, 2008 Author Share Posted February 11, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 12, 2008 Author Share Posted February 12, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 13, 2008 Author Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Looking at last night´s results, there was a definite under-performance from the 5-unit stake selections (ie. where there is a conflict between the PR long-term and short-term ratings). If you ignore those selections, the yield on the night would have been 13%...... interesting :zzz:zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 15, 2008 Author Share Posted February 15, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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