Grex Posted February 17, 2008 Author Share Posted February 17, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 18, 2008 Author Share Posted February 18, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 7, 2008 Author Share Posted March 7, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System Well, during the past 3 weeks, I have tried (and failed) to find any way of averting the downward slide that resulted in the yield from the "lay" system going from 30% to 4% in a couple of weeks :(. However, I have not been totally unproductive :clap..... I have developed a new system which "backs" homes and aways. It is based on the Paul Ross "short-term" ratings - from historical data, I have developed probability equations for homes and aways and used these to identify value bets. Cut-off criteria are logical and there is limited "force fitting". I have been paper trialing the system for 3 weeks and results to date are very good. "Homes" have just about broken even over 57 bets while "aways" have a 50% yield over 70 bets. Overall figures are 27% yield over 127 bets. Tonight's selections are: E1 Swansea (H) odds 1.44 E2 Lincoln (A) odds 3.50 E2 MK Dons (A) odds 2.25 G1 Dortmund (H) odds 2.00 Odds are quoted from Bet365 - stakes 5 points on Homes, 10 points on Aways. I stress that this is still a paper trial (although I am putting nominal money on the selections :loon) Good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 7, 2008 Author Share Posted March 7, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System PLEASE NOTE..... the system is now to BACK the selections, not "lay". Also, it is only a statistical coincidence that all 4 of tonight's matches from the qualifying leagues are selected..... the normal selection rate is approximately 33%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 7, 2008 Author Share Posted March 7, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 10, 2008 Author Share Posted March 10, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 10, 2008 Author Share Posted March 10, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 11, 2008 Author Share Posted March 11, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 12, 2008 Author Share Posted March 12, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 ...... note, I have changed the staking plan.... I´ll try to explain tomorrow: I am currently playing around with the Statto ratings to see if I can find a more reliable (and profitable) system.... and I have to admit that the Statto ratings seem to produce better predictions... although only over a VERY small sample so far. So, the posted selections continue to be based on PR´s ratings.... however, where the prediction for a particular match "conflicts" with the embryo Statto system, I reduce the stake from 10 units to 5 units. It worked well last night by identifying 3 of the 6 losers and, therefore, increasing yield on the night. I am not "deserting" PR´s ratings, simply (I hope) optimising yield by adding another filter. Note that tonight´s selections are all 10 unit bets i.e. the PR system and the Statto system agreed on the result.... shall we see :hope Also, I don´t know whether it´s really worth risking 10 units on Chelsea at odds of 1.10..... there may be a case for ignoring selections with odds less than, say, 1.4. However, the original back-testing showed no advantage in having a low odds cut-off. This system is still on a "learning curve"..... that´s why I repeat that it is officially only a paper trial :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 12, 2008 Author Share Posted March 12, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Rather a lot of selections from English League 2 :loon.... but only to be expected' date=' given the crazy unbalance between homes & aways that is going on this season in that particular league. I will try to give my thoughts on what exactly is going on, tomorrow.[/quote'] What is going on in English League 2? So far, this season, there have been 41% away wins :loon compared with an average of 27% over the previous 5 seasons. Is there a logical explanation for this phenomenon, or is it simply an extraordinary statistical aberration? There has been no change to the inherent advantage of being the home team…. its players continue to be more familiar with the playing surface conditions; they don’t have a long and tiring journey to get to the stadium; hopefully the home team continues to get the vast majority of vocal support from the spectators. Could there be a psychological explanation?…. perhaps, once the trend started early in the season, home team players lost confidence and became nervous, resulting in under-par performances….. but, I don’t think so. I think it is simply a statistical “blipâ€, admittedly a big one… but, for me, there is no other explanation. I know that Dusty, Lunatism and HappyGooner are hoping to take advantage of this abnormality in English League 2 and other leagues (see “Dusty LoonGoons Aways†thread), but I can’t help feeling there may be some advantage in actually opposing the statistical anomaly and adopting a “contrary†approach by selectively backing home teams. I hope for D, L and HG’s sake that I’m wrong. Anybody got any views on this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 12, 2008 Author Share Posted March 12, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 12, 2008 Author Share Posted March 12, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 By the way, does anybody know how to get tables correctly formatted..... I copy the tables direct from Excel, and regardless of whether I format the cells as right-justified or left-justified, they always appear as left-justified on the post :wall I see so many "nice looking" tables on this forum..... some help, P-L-E-A-S-E :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 13, 2008 Author Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 I´ll be back tomorrow with Friday´s selections :ok Nothing for Friday night (there is only one match from the PR leagues, anyway). The STATTO system suggests a strong selection of Guimaraes (Portuguese League) at odds of 2.00..... however, this is not an "official" selection :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 13, 2008 Author Share Posted March 13, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 13, 2008 Author Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 I had nothing to do on a Thursday evening :zzz(very little football - commiserations to Bolton fans).... so, I decided to check the odds quoted on selections from the other threads in this section of the forum... many identify the bookie offering the quoted odds, but some simply quote odds (relatively high) that are apparently taken from the many "odds checker" sites. This, of course, assumes that you have the time (and finances) to maintain 10 to 15 accounts. For us mere mortals, who are less resourceful, we are never going to secure these odds and achieve the system yields quoted.:( I quote Bet365 odds on my selections, as they are generally above average for the "big" bookies. A quick survey suggests that the best odds abstrated from the "odds checker" sites are about 10% higher than Bet365...... therefore, my system would be in profit. :dude The football authorities really should make sure there is meaningful football every evening of the week, then I wouldn´t be tempted to waste time composing stupid posts like this. :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 13, 2008 Author Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 I´m only posting this to see if you graduate to three rotating balls after 150 posts.... shall we see :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 13, 2008 Author Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 I´m only posting this to see if you graduate to three rotating balls after 150 posts.... shall we see :hope Obviously not......:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 14, 2008 Author Share Posted March 14, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Nothing for Friday night (there is only one match from the PR leagues' date=' anyway). The STATTO system suggests a strong selection of Guimaraes (Portuguese League) at odds of 2.00..... however, this is not an "official" selection :ok[/quote'] Well, it wasn´t an official selection, but Guimaraes won :). I am becoming very hopeful that the STATTO-based system will produce good results. Although it´s very early days, so far the system has produced a yield of 51% :loon on Homes (18 bets) and a yield of 62% :loon:loon on Aways (18 bets). I shall follow this with interest, and introduce it when there is more statistical confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 15, 2008 Author Share Posted March 15, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 16, 2008 Author Share Posted March 16, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 16, 2008 Author Share Posted March 16, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 16, 2008 Author Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 By the way, does anybody know when is the official start of the "Italian Serie A Silly Season"?? As we all know, there appears to be some very unexpected draws towards the end of this particular league´s season..... when I say "unexpected", I mean totally against any logic based on form. Obviously, this situation will cock-up any system based on rational and logical data. Probably the best way of predicting the start of the "silly season" is to look at the odds offered by bookies.... when the odds for a draw drop to 1.5 - 1.8, you can start to smell a fish :puke By the way, if anybody from the Italian FA reads this, I´m only joking, of course :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted March 16, 2008 Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Glad to see the worm has turned grex:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 16, 2008 Author Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Thanks for dropping in, HG........ and who are you calling a worm ? :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 17, 2008 Author Share Posted March 17, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 By the way, does anybody know how to get tables correctly formatted..... I copy the tables direct from Excel, and regardless of whether I format the cells as right-justified or left-justified, they always appear as left-justified on the post :wall I see so many "nice looking" tables on this forum..... some help, P-L-E-A-S-E :ok what interenet browser do you use? and what do you mean by "nice-looking" table? They don't look so bad on here....so what is it you're after?!:) Or is it just the leftsided-ness of it all? i CAN'T use firefox to put my tables in....colour never comes out, so i've got an IE plugin (called IE Tab i think) which does the trick nicely. Then you have to select the whole table (but make siure you do it AFTER you've done all the writing) and click on the align centre button (it's underneath the font dropdown box), and hey presto, you have aligned tables! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Thanks for the advice, Lunatism....... haven´t got a clue what you´re talking about :loon.... bit too technical for a "mouldy oldie". Anyway I Googled "IE Tab" and it came up with a load of references.... so I´m sure I´ll sort something out :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2 Thanks for the advice, Lunatism....... haven´t got a clue what you´re talking about :loon.... bit too technical for a "mouldy oldie". Anyway I Googled "IE Tab" and it came up with a load of references.... so I´m sure I´ll sort something out :ok i think that PL should make an "idiots guide to posting tables"! because you and I aren't the only people who have struggled with this. i know robkor did too with his system, and i made a right hash of my first few posts for LSS!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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