Gingers Jumpers

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Sorry this is late, not much time. 2:00 Alberta's Run on form is plenty short enough on form, strictly speaking. But he idles in front and is difficult to judge just how good he is. Handicappers nightmare. Can not see anything who finished behind him in the Sun Alliance beating him today. Roll Along was finishing strongly, but he came from the back in a strongly run race. Big BuckS ran in the Jewson under 11st 3lbs, with Schofield taking off 7lb. Made at least one mistake and hampered twice, finishing 7^th. But would've undoubtedly been concerned in the finish without the troubled run. A smaller field here should help. Not certain to stay, but is worth taking a chance at the price. 2:35 Tazbar has been mightily impressive and is a worthy favourite. Nenuphar Collonges is a one paced plodder who wins races where others go off too fast. Soufleur came back to form on the flat last time after running poorly when trainer was out of form. But will probably need to improve to win. Gone To Lunch seems better on a sounder surface. Pettifour got loose before his win at Newbury (did not exert himself too much) so could be a lot better than shown so far. The bet though is The Tother One, seemed to give it away in the Spa (when the money was well and truly on). Idles very badly and it could be this horse is capable of a lot better. With exaggerated waiting tactics today, might be able to get in front where it matters. With the insurance of an each way saver. 3:45 Gwanako beat all the rest easily in the Racing Post Plate at Cheltenham with 11 lengths back to the third. Coped with the Cheltenham fences and big field that day. Can improve again. 2M4f at Cheltenham is like 2m5f at Aintree. Well behind Gwanako was Mighty Matters but he travelled well for a long way there. Jumped well until a bad mistake and seemingly losing his confidence. Likes to race prominently, which helps around here. Possible he won't stay but at around 20/1 it's worth taking a chance. Kenzo3rd despite his age is a lightly raced progressive sort. Runs very well fresh, jumps boldly and is another prominent runner. Has won before for his claiming jockey. Pak Jack finished behind Mr Pointment and Bewleys Berry in the Beecher but did not get home there. Also second to Scots Grey in the Foxhunter last year so runs well over these fences. Is not that well handicapped but it does not matter so much on this course. The one negative is temperament. Does not seem to win unless on the bridle. Randwick Roar is a non runner. Nacarat is a bold jumper but can hit one. Ran well at Newbury last time, could improve further. Is just a little too short to back. Theatre Knight is an Aintree specialist, not the same horse anywhere else. But was pulled up last time and has had a break. If 100% will be a danger. 4:20 This was the bet of the week. Greenbridge won a poor race at Kempton but did it so easily, by a long way, head in chest . I am sure this is a star in the making, will have to be to beat the favourite. Thought about doing it each way but could not resist the Betfair price. Captain Cee Bee was an above average Supreme winner. Thought by his trainer best on good ground despite winning on soft at Cheltenham, apparently travels better on good ground. Yesterday the times suggested it was softer than the official. Don't think it will matter too much but may not travel that well on this sharper track. With a group 1 penalty, if there is another star in the field could be vulnerable. Having said that, has gone out a bit and is getting to be at a price worth saving on. Songe is progressive, should not be good enough but getting a lot of weight is worth a chance at a big price. If Kyber Kim fulfils the potential of his debut could run well if (big if) he does.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

2:00 Aintree £44 @ 4.6/1 Big BuckS (23% 100/30) £26 @ 1.72/1 Alberta's Run (40% 6/4)

Good start :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers If I have tipped this one before ignore this: 4:15 Aintree tomorrow £25 @ 15/1 Bewleys Berry (11% 8/1)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers GRAND NATIONAL ANALYSIS with my estimated percentage chance, price to beat and my “bookies price” Hedgehunter 4% 25/1 although 12 years old ran an encouraging race last time when second to Afistfullofdollars, has been trained especially for this and is fairly handicapped (on same mark as when 2^nd in 06). Had an interrupted preparation last year. Equally effective on good or soft ground. 18/1 Hi Cloy 0.1% 1000/1 barely stays 3 miles let alone 4 ½. Does not seem to have the temperament he once had. Ran reasonably over hurdles recently but looks on the downgrade. 250/1 Knowhere 0.75% 132/1 was disappointing in the Gold Cup, not jumping well enough. Had earlier ran his best race against the non-stayer Our Vic. Should stay further than 3m2f but possibly not 4m4f. Acts on good and heavy but a sound surface will help stamina wise. Came down at the Canal Turn last year and his jumping could be a worry in such a big field. 50/1 Mr Pointment 5.75% 16/1 looked an ideal type for this until breaking a blood vessel last time. Paul Nicholls has been talking down his chances recently, saying he is poorly handicapped. However, is only 3lbs worse off with Bewleys Berry than when beating him by 1 length in the Becher. Arguably is the more likely to improve too with just 6 chase starts. Inexperience is outweighed by his jumping, exceptional in November. Stayed 3m2f well and a fair chance of staying the trip, by Old Vic (stamina influence) by a mare who was by an Ascot Gold Cup winner (Ardross). Though she herself has produced the 2m to 2m4f Ground Ball. A lot will depend on if the bleeding problem recurs. Apparently has always been prone to slight bleeding at home, never of much consequence though. 12/1 Turko 1.5% 66/1 has been a revelation since a breathing operation in the summer, improving 6 year old. Talked up in recent days by his trainer but there is a big doubt about staying the trip. Although by French stayer Turgeon, has taken a pull at 3 miles so will need to settle better. Jumps adequately and again will need a sound surface to aid suspect stamina. 33/1 Madison Du Berlais 0.25% 400/1has shown more stamina this season, staying on in to 4^th in the Hennessay. Might stay a bit further but another 1 ¼ miles, doubtful. Been given time to recover from a rare poor run in the Leatherby And Christopher last time (January). 100/1 Simon 10% 9/1 ran an excellent National trial in the Racing Post Chase (won race in 2006 on heavy). Making up ground hand over fist in the closing stages, having been outpaced over an inadequate test of stamina (3m on good). Has raced as if will be suited by an extreme test and may improve considerably for it. Fell at Valentines second time around in last years National. Going well enough to suggest would have been involved in the finish. Made two mistakes when unsighted on reappearance and unseated (probably jockey error) at Cheltenham behind Knowhere. With Andrew Thornton injured has an able substitute jockey in Dominic Elsworth. Goes on good or heavy going but although is a sound enough leaper, being a small horse might not jump high enough out of a very soft surface. Fairly handicapped on current form and probably better to come over this trip. 7/1 Ardaghey's 0.1% 1000/1saddle slipped last time which could help him here (runs well fresh). Travelled well for a long way on his penultimate start (Racing Post Chase). Every chance turning for home but stopped as if shot. Often finds little under pressure but stays fairly well. Possibly the worst jumper in the field, hopefully he will not cause carnage. Just got in the weights, in my opinion should have been allowed to. 250/1 Iron Man 0.05% 2000/1 is out of form and struggles to stay 3 miles let alone 4 ½. Fallen both times over National fences. 500/1 Fundamentalist 0.25% 400/1 has improved his jumping of late but whether it will stand up to this test seems doubtful. Choice of stable jockey Paddy Brennen (over Knowhere) but is not certain to stay much beyond 3 miles (has raced free). With Cheltenham less than a month away it is a worry any horse running at both festivals will keep its form, and Fundamentalist ran twice at Cheltenham. 100/1 Butlers Cabin 2.25% 40/1 is the choice of AP McCoy and is a true stayer, won Irish National and National Hunt Chase last term. But nowhere near that form since, despite having cheek pieces reapplied last time. Has looked either amiss or temperamental, possibly remembering being distressed (needed oxygen after both wins). Best form on a sound surface, rain will negate his chance. 25/1 Slim Pickings 6.5% 15/1 was a good third last year. Was going best of all jumping the last and in my opinion only just stayed the trip. Has form over as little as 2m4f. If softer going this year may struggle to get home. Jumps better these days. Been kept hurdling to protect his handicap mark, could improve but needs to by a good deal if Cloudy Lane runs to form. Best chance of the Irish. 12/1 Chelsea Harbour 3.5% 28/1 is the other great Irish hope. Showed he does not need to lead when a good fourth, not knocked about, over an inadequate trip. Has some jumping frailties, has jumped violently left handed (which may help at the Canal Turn). Stays really well, his win in the 3 ½ mile chase on Feb 3 came just before the weights came out. The handicapper seems to have hit him hard. Capable of improvement but needs to. Possibly best on soft going. 20/1 Vodka Bleu 0.2% 500/1 was a revelation in blinkers earlier on in the season but has not run well in them the last twice. Very doubtful whether he will take to the fences and even bigger doubt on staying the trip. Probably best 2 ½ to 3 miles. Does act well on good ground. 125/1 L'Ami 4% 25/1 has been forgotten about, been dropped to an attractive looking mark. Ran his best race for some time last time when third in the William Hill at Cheltenham. Weakened in the latter stages in the National last year which suggests stamina limitations. However, that was when not in great form and had looked a possible stayer beforehand. Good jumper who acts on soft and good going. Is apparently the McManus third string but if coming back to his best of a couple of years ago. 18/1 Snowy Morning 3.25% 28/1 is very well handicapped on his third to The Listener. Beaten half a length by Turko yet is 9lbs better off here. Trainer thinks he had not recovered from that run when disappointing last time. Stays 3m2f well and runs as if might improve for the step up. Goes well on good and soft ground. Trouble is not since Maori Venture has a poorer jumper won the National. Usually belts at least one hard. 20/1 Bewleys Berry 10.5% 17/2 ran a strange race last time. Usually a prominent runner, his jockey seemed at pains to drop him out. Still going well making good headway on the back straight. Then a slight mistake, eased and pulled up. Best to ignore that run. Has an excellent record over National fences. Still going supremely well when falling at Bechers second time around last year, would've been concerned in the finish without the mishap. Jumped really well up to that point as in the last two Becher chases. One length behind Mr Pointment in this seasons race, 3lbs better off now. Yet to race over further than 3m2f but was staying on and may even improve for an extreme test. 7/1 Contraband (NO PRICE) out of form, won't stay, won't jump, poor temperament. 2000/1 McKelvey 1.25% 80/1 second in the National last year, now 1lb worse off with Slim Pickjings (third) for 1 ¼ lengths. Finishing fastest of all that day, needs to be held up for a late run as can idle in front. Returned with a leg injury which kept him off course until recently. Shown nothing in two quick runs over hurdles and probably won't be able to show the same form this term. Usually held up and is best on a sound surface. 33/1 Joacci 0.125% 800/1 runs his best races these days when fresh and has not run since december. However, he runs a moody race more often than not, likes to have a view of the front. Stays well and equally effective on good or heavy. 200/1 Point Barrow 1.25% 80/1 was co-fav when coming down at the first last year. Lazy, blinkered nowadays and disappointed last time. It seems his fall last year effected him badly and may not take to the fences. Stays well and acts on soft and good ground. 40/1 D'Argent 4% 25/1 jumping has improved this season and because of that has come back to his best. Winner of the Tote Classic (3m5f on heavy), now just 1 lb worse off with Philson Run for a 7 length win. Acts well on a soft surface and races prominently.18/1 No Full 0.05% 2000/1 is a very doubtful stayer, never run to form at 3 miles so not one for me. 500/1 Bailey Breeze 0.125% 800/1has run poorly the last twice and runs most of his best races from the front. Should stay further than 3 miles but probably not 4 ½. Acts well on soft Unlikely to take to the fences. 200/1 Bob Hall 0.1% 1000/1 has been in poor form, pulled up in the William Hill at Cheltenham. Should stay further than 2 ½ miles but not 4 ½. Is not very big and may struggle. 250/1 Cloudy Lane 16.75% 5/1 has improved dramatically since the weights came out. Won at Ayr by 8 lengths and Doncaster by 7 lengths, easily each time. Will carry 20lbs more in future handicaps. He is the handicap good thing and is effective on good and heavy ground. The one possible weakness is the trip. Only times he tackled further than 3m2f were disappointing, either side of a win in Cheltenham's Kim Muir last season. In the Irish National he was beaten before stamina became an issue. Can be put down to either the firm surface or more likely going right handed (raced mainly left handed). Or possibly not recovered from Cheltenham and over the top for the season. The race prior to Cheltenham is harder to excuse. Over 3m 4f on soft in last years Red Square at Haydock, Cloudy Lane was second going to 2 out yet weakened quickly. Only a novice at that point, raced prominently, possibly too keen and did make mistakes. Is held up these days, settles and usually jumps better too. At Ayr, 3m2f on heavy this season, showed no signs of stamina limitations. I'd say he has a better chance of staying the trip than not, if it is not too testing. 9/2 King Johns Castle 1.5% 66/1 is fairly handicapped and could improve. Backed over the last few weeks, Tony McCoy was thinking of jumping ship from Butlers Cabin. Although he won quite easily over hurdles last time under hands and heels, never finds a great deal off the bridle. Stays 3 miles on heavy so will stay further, possibly best on softer ground. Has a poor win to run ratio and it is difficult to see a winner of this race on the bridle. 33/1 Mon Mome 2% 50/1 ran a strange race last time at Cheltenham, outpaced under pressure early, going nowhere out the back with his rider accepting the situation. Before staying on really well not asked for everything, finishing 6^th. Would've been closer with a vigorous ride, but that all goes well for this race. Been placed in several extreme stamina tests, from a stable in form. If jumping well (can hit one) has a chance at a price. 28/1 Cornish Sett 0.125% 800/1 has looked a non stayer over extreme distances and not looked entirely genuine. However, comes from the Nicholls stable and has had a wind operation. Something that sometimes transforms the trainers horses. 200/1 Naunton Brook 0.2% 500/1 is a front running out and out stayer (needs to lead otherwise can chuck it in) though usually jumps well when at the head. Pulled up in this last year when out of form. Stable in better form this time around but best on softer ground. 125/1 Tumbling Dice 0.05% 2000/1 is a fair horse who likes to run prominently but unlikely to stay and ran poorly last time. One of the outsiders. 500/1 Backbeat 1.5% 66/1 would be one to consider if they went from finish to start (best right handed). Won a fair Sandown handicap on his last chase start. A veteran but lightly raced and still capable. Another prominent runner. 40/1 Comply Or Die 10.5% 17/2 should start second favourite for this if it is genuinely on the soft side. Stays extremely well, could be a question if he has enough pace. Got the impression in the Eider Timmy Murphy did not want to be crowded. Likes to race prominently, taken well to blinkers and finds plenty for pressure. Showed signs of a return to form when second to Cloudy Lane in the Tommy Wittle. Beaten 2 ½ lengths and now 2 lbs better off. Subsequent Kim Muir winner High Chimes ½ length back in third. Both Comply Or Die and Cloudy Lane have improved considerably since. At Newcastle, 4m1f on a soft surface did not win a great Eider, nothing franked the form since. Did win it well by 8 lengths. Is very well handicapped on that form and is even better off if able to produce his very best. Fourth off a mark of 146 to Trabolgan (151), beaten 5 ¾ lengths in the 2005 Hennessy. Runs from a mark of here. 7/1 Idle Talk 0.2% 500/1 was second in a Sun Alliance way back and looked a sound jumping stayer at one point. But has not looked the same horse (including jumping) since being sold last year. Well beaten 5^th in the Kim Muir last time. Like the last four horses likes to be up with the pace. 125/1 Kelami 2.25% 40/1 back to form last time. Beaten ¾ length after a mistake at the last in the Racing Post Chase, receiving 13lbs from Gungadu. Not the best of jumpers these days. Acts well on good or good-soft. 25/1 Milan Deux Mille 0.05% 2000/1 wore a severe bit last time, can pull (at 2 ½ miles) and has no chance of staying the trip. 500/1 Nadover (NO PRICE) is a 2 ½ to 3 miles horse, Chepstow specialist but is well out of form at present. Should be with Contraband as a rank outsider (and I do mean rank). 750/1 Black Apelachi 1.25% 80/1 disappointed last time but went without blinkers then. Ran well penultimate start in first time blinkers. Been racing at 3 miles recently and could improve over this extreme test if taking to the fences. Possibly better on softer ground. 40/1 Philson Run 2.75% 33/1 thought a soft ground plodder before his fourth in this last year. Made mistakes in the latter stages on reappearance (second to D'Argent). Then made errors before being brought down in the Red Square. Not the best preparation but can still run well if jumping like he did last term. Likely to find better handicapped horses. Held up for a late run. 22/1 Dun Doire 1% 100/1 well backed recently, but every Tony Martin handicapper is well backed these days. Punters know his reputation of pulling the wool over the handicappers eyes. Does not look capable on form. Unless going back a couple of years. Jumped poorly last time when second in a 3 ¼ mile chase and ran poorly in the National in the past. His hold up / dropped out style is also a negative. Does stay well but looks far too short in the market. 50/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Already Advised £22 @ 14/1 Mr Pointment £40 @ 8/1 Cloudy Lane £5 @ 13/1 Comply Or Die £15 @ 15/1 Simon £3 @ 39/1 Hedgehunter £3 @ 39/1 Monmore £2 @ 299/1 Opera Mundi Today £25 @ 15/1 Bewleys Berry Some more bets £4 @ 49/1 L'Ami (4% 25/1) £4 @ 31/1 D'Argent (4% 25/1) £5 @ 79/1 Kelami (2.25% 40/1) A Further £5 @ 10.5/1 Comply Or Die (10.5% 17/2) If you have not backed any of these above yet then below is what I would recommend. £25 @ 15/1 Bewleys Berry £22 @ 14/1 Simon £20 @ 6/1 Cloudy Lane £9 @ 10.5/1 Comply Or Die £9 @ 33/1 Mr Pointment £8 @ 49/1 L'Ami £5 @ 79/1 Kelami £4 @ 31/1 D'Argent

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:15 Aintree £24 @ 7.2/1 Kruguyova (15% 11/2) £23 @ 1.04/1 Kruguyova (place) 2:50 Aintree £35 @ 6.4/1 My Way De Solzen (16.75% 5/1) £22 @ 2.95/1 Osana (29% 5/2)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:15 If Tidal Bay runs to his Cheltenham form he will probably win. But he is a “stayer” at the trip and may not be as good over this sharper track. Also, he jumped better there than usual (possibly due to a noseband). Takeroc could be anything, won a poor race at Sandown with any amount in hand, but is too short in the market, unless you know what he does at home. Kruguyrova did not jump like he can in the Arkle, usually a bold and accurate leaper. Yet stayed on again in to second. Did have a hard race there but if 100% it is hard to see him out of the first three. Races this week seem to favour prominent runners and Kruguyrova could get a soft lead. 2:50 Al Eile has an exceptional record here but will probably need to be better than ever if Osana or My Way De Solzen runs to form. Last year beat Gaspara 1 ½ lengths in a poor renewal. Very short price on form. Osana only run once at 2 ½ miles and did not run to his best. But the way he runs at 2 miles strongly suggests it should suit. Coming back at Katchit late on in the Champion. Front runner (at 2m) so that should suit. Had a hard race at Cheltenham but if o.k. will take some beating. My Way De Solzen has not been the same horse this season, but has progressed with every race lately. Seemed to be travelling well 2 out in the Stayers hurdle but found disappointingly little in the straight. Did show a high head carriage (not noticed it before) and could either be going the wrong way temperament wise due to an injury that has not been detected. But equally, despite being a previous winner of the race, might not stay the trip these days. At the price is worht taking a chance with. Straw Bear is not in great form, and the way he won in the Christmas hurdle (2m on sharp track) seems no reason he should improve at this trip. Afsoun has gone the wrong way, temperament wise. Only going through with his effort one race in five. This looks too competitive for him. Lough Derg will be just trying for a place to win the Order Of Merit. Needs a test at 2 ½ miles and flattered by at least two of his wins this season.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Quickly a last bet. £2 @ 199/1 Backbeat (1.5% 66/1)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 3:00 Newbury £60 @ 4.2/1 Mister Quasimodo (24% 100/30) £8 @ 8.2/1 King Louis (12.5% 7/1) 4:00 Newbury £72 @ 3.8/1 Joyrider (27% 11/4) £13 @ 5.4/1 Appleaday (18% 9/2) 4:35 Newbury £70 @ 5/2 Planet Of Sound (34.25% 15/8) £8 @ 74/1 The Good Guy (4% 25/1) £8 @ 74/1 West Ridge (4% 25/1) £2 @ 59/1 Little Bit Of Hush (3.25% 28/1)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 3:00 This race is full of out of form or poor temperament horses. If Misty Dancer is back to form (ran poorly on reappearance back in February) will be difficult to beat. Has been backed to do so but is too short now. Mister Quasimodo was running well when blundering his chance away at Cheltenham. Too far out to say where he would have finished. Usually a good enough jumper though is a prominent runner who may not get his own way in front. Stable in good form. King Louis was out of his depth in a Grade 1 last time. If back to his penultimate start form could go close. 4:00 Bolachoir and Joyrider are similar sorts. Both won weak races last time and both are capable of better. There is a slight doubt on the formers ability to handle soft ground (if the rains come). Joyrider may do better coming back in trip today and I make his chance only 2% less than Bolachoir. Appleaday ran well here last time (held up in a strongly run race) and may improve today over further. Trainer could be in better form and has not been the best of jumpers in the past. Oh Braga has been well backed on his first chase start. Done little and jumped poorly over hurdles. Did have reasonable bumper form but difficult to see why the money has come today. 4:35 WEST BERKSHIRE RACING CLUB NOVICE HURDLE Calgary Bay is one of the best looking horses in training, but his mind does not seem the best. Planet Of Sound is progressive and stable in particularly good form. Will want a good pace or rain (test at the trip). Working Title looks in even more need of rain. Best run on the stiff Exeter track on soft ground. Free World ran well for a long way in the Sunderlands but the bare form leaves him a lot to do here. Is very well thought of by connections. The Good Guy ran a very encouraging race last time with minimal assistance. May do better once in to handicaps but worth a few quid today at the price. West Ridge went to the front at Fontwell looking the likely winner, but obviously does not stay 2m2f on heavy. The more the test of speed the better, the less rain the better. Is capable of much better and is from a stable in brilliant form.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:40 Sandown £44 @ 6.4/1 Lennon (18% 9/2) £26 @ 10/1 Howle Hill (12% 15/2) 3:20 Sandown £40 @ 6.4/1 Iris De Balme (17% 5/1) £25 @ 11/1 (WH) Bewleys Berry (11% 8/1) £11 @ 31/1 Burntoakboy (5.5% 18/1)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:40 Sandown So many of these like to race prominently. Even one usually held up, Andreas made the running last time. He likes good going at the minimum trip but does not always find much off the bridle. One that does find plenty (also likes the conditions) is Lennon, a prominent runner but does not need to lead. Ran really well at Aintree last time. Should not be much between him and Lord Henry on that run but the Wylie runner is the more consistent. Though he does love Aintree ran equally as well at Doncaster. Possibly bast on left handed courses but has won at Market Rasen and it could be the going which is key. Monets Garden ran so poorly at Aintree can be taken on here especially back at 2 miles on a quick surface. Mahogany Blaze despite being a novice has had so many runs this term, is exposed. Howle Hill is one I like, did not jumped that well last time at Cheltenham last time. But if ignoring that run has a good chance here. Unlike most of his rivals is held up and that could be an advantage today. 3:20 Sandown Royal County Star although is the unexposed horse in this field, appeared not to stay a slowly run 3m5f last time. This is a firmer surface today but a fast run race could see him fold late on. Tony Martin's runners are these days at artificially low prices due to bookies running scared of the handlers exceptional record in handicaps. Racing Demon, Hoo La Baloo, Monkerhostin, Caribou, Without A Doubt and Pak Jack would all be doubtful stayers too, Possibly Ungaro as well. Knowhere is probably flattered by beating Our Vic and Neptunes Collonges, nothing done before or since suggests he is as good as he looked that day at Cheltenham. Possibly best left handed. Ungaro would be a danger if staying the trip. D'Argent had a hard race in the National and is possibly best on softer ground. Royal Auclair has some recent form which suggests he is not out of it. Loathian Falcon is unexposed at this trip, is just too short to back though, especially with Robert Walford up. Preacher Boy ran well enough the last twice and could go close especially if returning to the form that gave him third in last seasons Hennessay. Bewleys Berry possibly did not stay in the Grand National, going very well on the home turn. 3m5f might be his trip. Is over priced if able to run to his Aintree course form. Burntoakboy has been progressive in staying chases this term and if maintaining that upward trend will make 31/1 look a very big price. Iris De Balme (friend of mine backed this one (66/1) and the Scottish Champion winner (40/1) ). That run came out of nothing but there seems no fluke in the form. If (like last years winner Hot Weld) he is over those exertions will be difficult to beat here, even with overweight. Won fairly easily at Ayr and I have noticed over the years, those winning on good or firmer can defy a penalty easier than when the first run is on soft. That Scottish National form entitles him to be a 3/1 shot not almost13/2. Think I may have under estimated his chance.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Another bet added in 3:20 Sandown £4 @ 39/1 Preacher Boy 39/1 (4.5% 22/1)

[billy the punter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

3:20 Sandown Bewleys Berry possibly did not stay in the Grand National, going very well on the home turn. 3m5f might be his trip. Is over priced if able to run to his Aintree course form.

Just written pretty much the same thing ginge as you were typing this. I'm just a little worried with regards to how he has come out of the race. He usually needs time in between his races. I would love to see him win after two un-rewarding great runs in the National.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

Just written pretty much the same thing ginge as you were typing this. I'm just a little worried with regards to how he has come out of the race. He usually needs time in between his races. I would love to see him win after two un-rewarding great runs in the National.

Billy, Always nice to here we are in agreement. With three weeks between the races this year Bewleys Berry should be o.k. Think (and hope) he is lightly raced these days more to protect the handicap mark for Aintree (possibly best over those fences too) than being "best fresh". Anyway at his curent price is worth a bet to find out. Ginge

[billy the punter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

Billy, Always nice to here we are in agreement. With three weeks between the races this year Bewleys Berry should be o.k. Think (and hope) he is lightly raced these days more to protect the handicap mark for Aintree (possibly best over those fences too) than being "best fresh". Anyway at his curent price is worth a bet to find out. Ginge

Abosolutely :ok Yes, I think you're correct actually. His wasn't this lightly raced in his hurdle or novice days and it's probably that it is for handicapping reasons.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Disconcerting with Lennon drifting but, can not resist it. Also if lennon or Howle Hill do not win I think Andreas is the obvious danger (made a mistake with his percentage), so will have half a saver on it. Additions 2:40 Sandown £5 @ 8.6/1 Lennon £13 @ 2.9/1 Andreas (28% 5/2)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Having said on another rhread most of my bets shorten in price, two have gone for a long walk, Lennon and Burntoakboy. Still, as some have pointed out, it is only winners that count and I can only remember one (Petty Four) starting significantly better. Addition 3:20 Sandown £2 @ 47/1 Burntoakboy

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers I WAS ROBBED!! With a better ride (asked to get competitive sooner) Iris De Balme would surely have won. Ah Well.:\:eyesNe' mind eh.:sad Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Seasons End. Will do profit / loss when I have time.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Just getting my profit / loss up together. Mar 28th. 2:10 Newbury £50 @ 5.8/1 Prince de Buery (UR) £28 @ 10/1 Talenti 3^rd £7 @ 12/1 Canaturn 2^nd cp 31.3% 9/4 -£85 Deficit 2:40 Newbury £36 @ 9/1 Just For Men £10 @ 43/1 Historic Place £14 @ 4.3/1 Island Flyer 1^st Return £74.20 £10 @ 6.6/1 Rustarix 4^th cp 44.4% 5/4 ts £70 £4.20 Profit 4:25 Newbury £33 @ 8.4/1 Panjo Bere 2^nd £33 @ 6/1 Kings Revenge 3^rd cp 24.9% 3/1 -£66 Deficit Days Stakes £221, Days Return £70.20, Days Deficit £150.80 Will do other stats at the end of the season. Mar 29^th 1:50 Newbury £43 @ 4.9/1 Quattrocento £7 @ 6.4/1 Fredo cp 30.4% 9/4 -£50 Deficit 2:20 Newbury £44 @ 4.6/1 Elvis Returns £16 @ 13/1 Keenans Future 3rd £7 @ 11/1 De Blanc £7 @ 11/1 Mort De Rive cp 41.6 11/8 -£74 Deficit 2:55 Newbury £36 @ 6/1 Theatre Diva £22 @ 6.6/1 Scarvagh Diamond £7 @ 9/1 Miss Mitch cp 37.4% 13/8 -£65 Deficit 3:25 Newbury £30 @ 8/1 Katess £20 @ 12/1 Arctic Magic 4th £14 @ 17.5/1 Dancing Dasi £6 @ 12/1 Cornerback cp 31.9% 85/40 -£70 Deficit 5:05 Newbury £38 @ 5.4/1 Coach Lane 2nd £13 @ 3/1William bonny cp 40.6% 6/4 -£51 Deficit Days Stakes £310, Days Return £000, Days Deficit £310.00 Undone all my good work at Cheltenham with two miserable days at Newbury. Too many bets (on mares too). When many were going “over the top”. Now for Aintree!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers April 3rd 2:00 Aintree £150 @ 6/4 Inglis Drever 3^rd £15 @ 6.6/1 Blazing Bailey 1^st Return £114.00 £2 @ 99/1 Kawagino cp 54.2% 5/6 ts £167 -£53 Deficit 2:35 Aintree £20 each way @ 10/1 Gungadu 9.1% 10/1 -£40 Deficit 3:10 Aintree £100 @ 1.7/1 Celestial Halo 2^nd 37% 7/4 -£100 Deficit 3:45 Aintree £55 @ 4.2/1 Thisthatandtother £18 @ 15.5/1 Scots Grey cp 25.3% 3/1 -£73 Deficit 4:20 Aintree £7 @ 40/1 Magic Sky £14 @ 29/1 Ela Rae £10 @ 25/1 Almaydan £10 @ 24/1 Calatagan £2 @ 22/1 Greenhope £3 @ 19/1 Dev 2^nd cp 22.8 100/30 -£46 Deficit 4:55 Aintree £48 @ 9/2 Group Captain £12 @ 4/1 Elusive Dream 1^st Return £60.00 cp 38.2% 13/8 ts £60 £0 Profit Days Stakes £486, Days Return £174, Days Deficit £312.00 April 4^th 2:00 Aintree £44 @ 4.6/1 Big BuckS 1^st Return £246.40 £26 @ 1.72/1 Alberta's Run 3^rd cp 54.7% 5/6 ts £70 £176.40 Profit 2:35 Aintree £30 each way @ 5/1 The Tother One 3^rd Return £67.50 16.7% £7.50 Profit 3:45 Aintree £22 @ 13.5/1 Kenzo III £15 @ 20/1 Mighty Matters £23 @ 9/1 Gwanako 1^st Return £230.00 £7 @ 9/1 Pak Jack (Randwick Roar NR) cp 31.7% 85/40 ts £67 £163 Profit 4:20 Aintree £44 @ 7.2/1 Greenbridge £3 @ 33/1 Songe cp 15.1% 11/2 -£47 Deficit Days Stakes £244, Days Return £543.90, Days Profit £299.90 April 5^th 2:15 Aintree £24 @ 7.2/1 Kruguyrova £22 @ 2.95/1 (place) Krugruyova 12.2% -£46 Deficit 2:50 Aintree £35 @ 6.4/1 My Way De Solzen £22 @ 2.95/1 Osana 2^nd cp 38.8% 13/8 -£57 Deficit 4:15 Aintree £22 @ 14/1 Mr Pointment £40 @ 8/1 Cloudy Lane £5 @ 13/1 Comply Or Die 1^st £15 @ 15/1 Simon £3 @ 39/1 Hedgehunter £3 @ 39/1 Mon Mome £2 @ 299/1 Opera Mundi £25 @ 15/1 Bewleys Berry £4 @ 49/1 Lami £4 @ 31/1 D'Argent £5 @ 79/1 Kelami £5 @ 10.5/1 Comply Or Die 1^st Overall Return £127.50 £2 @ 199/1 Backbeat cp 48.7% 21/20 ts £135 -£7.50 Deficit Days Stakes £238, Days Return £127.50, Days Deficit £110.50

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 12^th April 3:00 Newbury £60 @ 4.2/1 Mister Quasimodo £8 @ 8.2/1 King Louis 1st Return £73.60 cp 30.1% 9/4 cs £68 £5.60 Profit 4:00 Newbury £72 @ 3.8/1 Joyrider £13 @ 5.4/1 Appleaday 1st Return £83.20 cp 36.4% 7/4 cs £85 -£1.80 Deficit 4:35 Newbury £70 @ 5/2 Planet Of Sound 1st Return £245.00 £8 @ 74/1 The Good Guy £8 @ 74/1 West Ridge £2 @ 59/1 Little Bit Of Hush cp 32.8% 2/1 cs £88 £157 Profit Days Stakes £241, Days Return £401.80, Days Profit £160.80 26^th April 2:40 Sandown £44 @ 6.4/1 Lennon £26 @ 10/1 Howle Hill £5 @ 8.6/1 Lennon £13 @ 2.9/1 Andreas 1st Return £50.70 cp 47.8% 11/10 cs £88 -£37.30 Deficit 3:20 Sandown £40 @ 6.4/1 Iris de Balme 4^th £25 @ 11/1 Bewleys Berry £11 @ 31/1 Burntoakboy £4 @ 39/1 Preacher Boy £2 @ 47/1 Burntoakboy cp 27.3% 11/4 -£82 Deficit Days Stakes £170, Days Return £50.70, Days Deficit £119.30

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2007 / 2008 National Hunt Season Statistics Total Staked £10,510 Total Return £11,418 Total Profit £908.03 8.64% profit on stakes 135 betting races 48 winners 35.55% strike rate Average bet per race £77.85 Every horse's percentage added 4359% e.g 3/1 (25%) + 4/1 (20%) = 45% Average price taken per race 4359 / 135 (32.3%) 85/40 Number of horses backed 356 Average price per horse 4359 / 356 (12.2%) 7/1 Winners percentages added 787.5% Average priced winner 787.5 / 48 (16.4%) 5/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers A little disappointing, fell away at the end of the season. I expect to make 10%. Ginge

[billy the punter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers No one has ever gone skint making a profit. :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

No one has ever gone skint making a profit. :ok

They do Billy, when they don't have much other money coming in! :lol Going to have to find the courage to up stakes. Ginge

[billy the punter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

They do Billy, when they don't have much other money coming in! :lol Going to have to find the courage to up stakes. Ginge

In the past my downfall was always having too much on. You have to get the stake to bank ratio right, as you well know. Although I don't agree with the 5% of bank rule. Never have, never will. Everyone's should be different and based on your style.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 4:30 Gooswood £45 each way @ 5/1 (ladbrokes) Predicament (22% 7/2) This looks a field of out of form horses bar the two favourites and High Flight. With the latter possibly best on soft and Timocracy yet to race on a firm surface, Predicament looks a safe each way bet. With Amanda Perratt back in form Colourways might be best of the rest.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 3:55 Goodwood £60 @ 5.4/1 Storyland (22% 7/2) £40 @ 13/2 (Corals) Miss Rochester (16.5% 5/1) In contrast to the 4:30 this looks a bunch of in form fillies. Storyland beat quite a few of these last time and although less well off at the weights now, is improving and won well. Miss Rochester is another capable of improvement and did not get the run of the race last time. My main concern is pace. The rank outsider might dictate a low pace with my two stuck out the back. Starfala, Montbretia and Shimoni are other concerns:lol. Ginge