Gingers Jumpers

[Gingertipster]

Will give my tips for the 07/08 Jumps season here. Tips are those horses I believe are value from my own form study. Prices taken are the best price available at the time of the "advice", usually Betfair. I never take SP as there is no knowing if it will be value. Figures in brackets will be the percentage chance I believe the tip has of winning with equivalent price. Below is the Table of odds and chances. Evens 50% , 21/20 48.8% , 11/10 47.6% , 6/5 45.5% , 5/4 44.4% , 11/8 42.1% , 6/4 40.0% , 13/8 38.1% , 7/4 36.4% , 15/8 34.8% , 2/1 33.3% , 85/40 32.0% , 9/4 30.8% , 5/2 28.6% , 11/4 26.7% , 3/1 25.0% , 100/30 23.1% , 7/2 22.2% , 4/1 20.0% , 9/2 18.2% , 5/1 16.7% , 11/2 15.4% , 6/1 14.3% , 13/2 13.3% , 7/1 12.5% , 15/2 11.7% , 8/1 11.1% , 17/2 10.5% , 9/1 10.0% , 10/1 9.1% , 11/1 8.3% , 12/1 7.7% , 13/1 7.1% , 14/1 6.7% , 15/1 6.2% , 16/1 5.9% , 18/1 5.3% , 20/1 4.8% , 22/1 4.3% , 25/1 3.8% , 28/1 3.4% , 33/1 3.0% , 40/1 2.4% , 50/1 2.0% , 66/1 1.5% , 80/1 1.2% , 100/1 1.0% , 200/1 0.5% , 300/1 0.3% , 500/1 0.2% , 1000/1 0.1% To calculate odds on percentages it is easiest to take away the odds against equivalent from 100. e.g. 1/2 = 100 - 33.3 (2/1) = 66.7%. No bet at odds on. Any horse I believe has a 33% chance I will back if I can get better than 2/1. 18% would be 9/2 etc. Taking the best price available at the time of the bet. Staking plan: My main bet is the amount I would have to bet to win £200 at the price / chance I believe the horse has. e.g. With a horse I believe has a 33% chance that is best price 3/1, £100 @ 2/1 would win £200 so £100 @ 3/1 is the bet. After that there are half bets or saver bets on other horses I think are value. Maximum bet on one horse £180, max bet on a race £200. Even though it might be value at a short price, do not want to risk losing too much in one go.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:35 Cheltenham Have already backed Granit Jack myself ante-post (6/1) but can not advise at current prices. Might come back to advise a saver if getting to 4/1 or bigger. £27 @ 9.5/1 Copsale Lad (11.5% 15/2) £17 @ 16.5/1 Private Be (7.75% 12/1) £14 @ 21/1 Three Mirrors (6.75% 14/1) £6 @ 84/1 Il Duce (2.75% 33/1) £5 @ 99/1 Billyvoddan (2.25% 40/1) 3:10 Cheltenham £57 @ 4.7/1 Sonnyanjoe (22.5% 7/2) £10 @ 7/1 Juveigneur (15% 11/2) £13 @ 35/1 Gold Gun (6.25% 15/1) 3:40 Cheltenham £33 @ 8/1 D'Argent (14.5% 6/1) £12 @ 11.5/1 Sir Rembrandt (12.5% 7/1) £10 @ 9/2 Bob Bob Bobbin (20% 4/1) Analysis to come.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Analysis. 2:35 Cheltenham When I went on a West Berkshire Racing Club stable visit to Paul Nicholls stable (Oct 28th) the head lad told us all to get on Granit Jack for the Paddy Power. Sorry I forgot to tell PL members. Granit Jack is very well handicapped judged by his hurdle form. Before coming here he had won a chase in France (smaller obstacles than ours). If showing anywhere near his hurdle form will be difficult to beat. Though I would want better than 7/2 if betting now. Another potentially well handicapped horse is Copsale Lad. Was not at his best over fences last season but has had a breathing operation since and if back to his best has a good chance for an in form stable. Who will come out best of those from Knowheres race is questionable. He himself may be able to improve further. The third Bob Hall could improve but the form of Jonjo's stable could be better. Private Be was going very well when brought downl 2 out. Can run well if no ill effects of that run. L'Antartique is a possible improver who goes well at Chelters but with a penalty for winning a muddling race at Carlisle looks a very short price. Stable companion Three Mirrors ran O.K. on his reapearance (fading) when the stable was not in the form it is now. Yet to prove himself on the course or in big fields but is worth a wager at the price. Vodka Bleu runs well fresh, 2nd off only 1lb lower last year but this looks more competative. I would want 16's. Idole first has a similar profile to L'antartique and does go well on good going despite his trainers misgivings during the week. However, Venetia is not banging in the winners like she can as yet so is passed over. Palarshan is another who goes well fresh and is well handicapped on form of a few years ago but is not getting any younger. Stable companion Billyvoddan looks over priced at 99/1. Visored for the first time, if they can do what blinkers did first time last season could spring a surprise. Possibly unlucky when 3rd in Festival chase here in March (hampered). What price would Taranis be here off top weight? Fitness has to be taken on trust though. Il Duce is another at a massive price with a bit of a squeak. Seemed to improve last time (May) in a muddling race, possibly better in less competative races but ran well here when 3rd last back end and goes well on good going. If progressing again... Other races analysis to come in the morning.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers More analysis. 3:10 Cheltenham Blazing Bailey will have to be at his very best to repel these giving so much weight away. There must be a chance he will not be at the peak of fitness first time up with bigger targets ahead. Looks a very short price. I do not even make him favourite, that honour going to Sonnyanjoe. The Irish horse will be suited by the extreme trip and is improving (even as a 10 yo). Gets on particularly well with Paddy Brennen who takes the ride despite a Twiston-Davis runner in the field. Juveigneur might be poorly handicapped on hurdle form but is well handicapped on his runs over fences. Runs well fresh. Gold Gun, 7lbs out of the handicap but showed improved form (needs to again) to chase home Sonnyanjoe last time and is held by that horse. However he is unexposed at extreme trips and now 41/1 is worthy of a small wager. Ashwell is not out of it but is not sure to stay. Lyes Green has a chance on his Aintree form but ran poorly first time out. Prestbury Knight is having a confidence booster after jumping poorly over the bigger obstacles and is not fancied on jockey bookings. Pipe pair Raslan (becoming temperamental) and Prince De Bersy (improving novice with surely too much to find) make up the field.

[Woodie]

Re: Gingers Jumpers All the best mate for today and the season:hope

[mowgli77]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Paddy Brennan chose this as his best ride of the day and seems to really fancy it (Sonnyanjoe) and could not give an answer when asked if he would fancy Inglis Drever against it at therse weights. I'm on already on Betfair. Good Luck. :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 3:40 Cheltenham Simon seems to be handicapped on what he may have done in the Grand National without falling. Probably just a pipe opener for the Welsh National or Beecher. Easily passed over today. L'Ami had his reapearance over hurdles in France so should be fit, should stay but possibly exposed. Cornish Sett is lazy and did not look on best terms with himself at a recent visit to the stable. Flattered in the Racing Post chase coming from well back with an overly strong pace. Far from certain to stay. Stable companion L'Aventure is a dog, only relenting to race once in 10 runs, can run well fresh but is getting a bit old and needs even further. Baron Windrush comes from a stable in form but he looks a spring horse and may be better with plenty of give. Chance on the book though. Jaunty Times may be best going right handed nowadays, needs to improve but is still young enough to do so. Comply Or Die has no rescent form. Bob Bob Bobbin won first time out last season (improved), usually jumps well and is genuine. Was pulled up lame on his final start but is worthy favourite and of a saver. D'Argent goes really well fresh and if looking far enough back does have form on good going (most rescent form on soft). At the price it is worth chancing his jumping stands the test. Sir Rembrandt looked to be going the wrong way temperament wise last season but was a genuine horse in his early days. That leads me to believe it could be a physical thing. Usually runs well fresh and has a good record at Prestbury Park. Now with Victor Dartnell who has plenty of in form horses to judge him by. I will take a chance on his mind.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Thanks for your good wishes Woodie & Mowgli. Found another bet for those who like short prices. 2:00 Cheltenham £180 @ 5/4 (Stan James) Franchoek (55% 4/5) I totally disagree with Barry Dennis the way Alan Kings horse won at Chepstow (undulating track) suggests the trainer has found another top juvenile. King is second to none in producing juveniles and the easy 13 length winner jumped for fun and could be another Triumph winner for him. There are other "could be anythings" in the field, Sainte Kadette and Falcon's Fire are the main dangers. But they will have to be exceptional if the selection runs to form. I might go in again if Mr Dennis opposes it too much.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

2:35 Cheltenham Have already backed Granit Jack myself ante-post (6/1) but can not advise at current prices. Might come back to advise a saver if getting to 4/1 or bigger. £27 @ 9.5/1 Copsale Lad (11.5% 15/2) £17 @ 16.5/1 Private Be (7.75% 12/1) £14 @ 21/1 Three Mirrors (6.75% 14/1) £6 @ 84/1 Il Duce (2.75% 33/1) 2nd £5 @ 99/1 Billyvoddan (2.25% 40/1) -£69.00 Defecit. combined price taken 21.9% 7/2 So close! Almost an 84/1 winner (I backed it at 94/1) 3:10 Cheltenham £57 @ 4.7/1 Sonnyanjoe (22.5% 7/2) 1st Return £324.90 £10 @ 7/1 Juveigneur (15% 11/2) £13 @ 35/1 Gold Gun (6.25% 15/1) total staked £80 combined price 32.8% 2/1 + £244.90 Profit 3:40 Cheltenham £33 @ 8/1 D'Argent (14.5% 6/1) £12 @ 11.5/1 Sir Rembrandt (12.5% 7/1)1st Return £150.00 £10 @ 9/2 Bob Bob Bobbin (20% 4/1) ts £55 cb 37.3% 13/8 + £95.00 Profit

2:00 Cheltenham £180 @ 5/4 (Stan James) Franchoek 1st Return £405.00 cb 44.4% 5/4 +£225 Profit Total Return £879.90 Total Bet £384 Total Profit £495.90 129% profit on stakes Added Percentages 136.4% Average price taken per race 136.4 divided by 4= 34.1% 15/8 Average price per horse (horses backed 12) 11.3% 8/1 Strike Rate 3/4 75% Average winners price 69.9% divided by 3 = 23.3% 100/30

[mileni4uk]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Well done, mate :clap What happened with your flat thread? I wasn't around in the last couple of months. How do the numbers look? Any success?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers probably will not do sunday bets until tomorrow as going could change dramatically.

[RussP]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Well done mate, and good luck for the jumps season:ok

[TheRat]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Well done ginge :clap

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers An awful lot today will depend on how much rain Cheltenham gets. 1:10 Analysis. The two horses with real soft ground form are the favourite Predateur and Papini. I know from a stable visit that the former is one Paul Nicholls thinks could be his Arkle hope, going particularly well at home. But I remember seeing it at Wincanton last season when finding little off the bridle.He could be a morning glory. Papini got a soft lead on his reapearance / chasing debut and is questionable what he beat. Won on afirm surface aswell as heavy so no problem there. Most of his form is on flat tracks. Might get taken on for the lead by Dev, a speedy front-runner who may not stay the trip even on good going. Tramantano has often run really well first time up (won here on reappearance) and then disspointed. Stable still in excellant form though and if it does not get too soft has a fair chance. Another whos stable is in great form is Leslingtaylor. Impressive winner of his only chase so far but does have a penalty. Jumped particularly well and is built for fences. Raced mainly on good over obstacles, one poor run on heavy but has one soft ground win on the flat. I have him in one of my tote ten to follow lists to win the Arkle. Had a stable visit to Charlie Manns yard last season and was tipped two unraced horses to follow Air Force One and Moon Over Miami. Both have done well but the latter ran dissapointingly on chasing debut and is passed over here. Nous Voila showed some promise but has not run for some time and does not have the scope of some. Hopefully Admiral Peary will stay out of the way.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers With doubts about the going will just do a half bet so far, have worked out form for good-soft. 1:10 Cheltenham £30 @ 4.7/1 Leslingtaylor (23% 100/30) 2:20 Cheltenham £18 @ 7.6/1 Kalca Mome (15% 11/2) 2:55 Cheltenham £36 @ 8/1 Pevensey (15.5% 11/2) £9 @ 8.2/1 Osana (13% 13/2) £4 @ 18/1 Poquelin (7.75% 12/1) £9 @ 43/1 French Saulaie (4.5% 22/1) £2 @ 74/1 Heathcote (2.75% 33/1) £2 @ 99/1 Wizard Of Us (2% 50/1)

[davidmphill]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Outstanding start, hope it continues like this for you.:clap

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:20 analysis On the book Voy Por Ustedes has no easy task. However, River City will be inconvenienced by a soft surface. A.P. rides him and not Hasty Prince whos best form is all in strongly run races which he may not get today. And Kalca Mome also needs a test at 2 miles so will need quite a bit of rain. Sometimes needs his first run but also seems best in the Autumn. I can not resist the current price for half a bet though. The fav could warrent a saver if odds against. The other two horses are not worth mentioning. 2:55 analysis Sizing Europe is short for one who needs to improve. Probably would have won last time but for falling. Showed improved form last season on a sound surface. Faded after looking dangerous on heavy and may not be suited by any rain (speedy). Pevensey comes from a stable in cracking form, has shown improved form on the flat since his last run over obstacles, probably acts on any going (so a full bet is advised). The one negative is his form is on flat, sharp tracks. Osana ran well in the County Hurdle as a novice, raced prominently in a race run at a fast pace. Effective on soft and good and has the size to keep improving. Stables runners usually fit enough first time. Jockey seems to prefur Sizing Europe. Altihar ran well on good-firm last time at Ascot but may improve given a stiffer test (by stamina influence Dynaformer). French Saulaie ran well, held up in a slowly run race last time. Before that a good second to Leslingtaylor in the Swinton. Acts on any going and could yet improve. Excellant value at 43/1. Stable companion Lead On seemed to improve at 2 1/2 miles last time and will need a lot of rain to make it a test at todays trip. Poquelin might prefer a sharp track though was 6th in the Triumph. Shown improvement on a sound surface so will not want much rain. Two that will like the rain are Heathcote and Victram. Former is definately over-priced on his Tote Gold Trophy win but fitness has to be taken on trust. A market move from this yard could prove significant. More rain the better for Victram. Ridden by capable 7lb claimer Tobin (nice bloke, he gave me those Charlie Mann tips). Mountain is inexperienced for a race like this (4 runs over hurdles). Did run well for a long way in the Supreme, or was it the Triumph? Best of these on the flat, still has improvement in him (needs it). Chivalry was infront of Poquelin last time but is inconsistant and poor value. Mill House Girl made all here last time but has other front runners today to take her on. Kanad and Ingratitude are speed horses probably suited to a sharp track on dry ground. Orpen Wide has a chance on the book but looks exposed. Platin Grounds is intreresting, improvement on a sound surface but could run well if he handles softer (if as expected rains come). Stable still in excellant form. Manhatten Boy seemed a good recruit to hurdling (on soft surface) before injury and has been off almost a year. Stable third string but if fit is capable of better. Big if. Wizard Of Us is a genuine front runner, could surprise a few at a big price but fitness has to be taken on trust.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers If it is good-soft now it will be softer come post time so no more on Leslingtaylor yet. 2:20 Cheltenham extra: £22 @ 6.6/1 Kalca Mome Can see River City being a non-runner so won't go for a saver on Voy Por yet. 2:55 Cheltenham extra: £4 @ 10.5/1 Osana £4 @ 43/1 Altihar (4.5% 22/1) £3 @ 29/1 Victram (5% 20/1) £2 @ 119/1 Wizard Of Us

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

Well done, mate :clap What happened with your flat thread? I wasn't around in the last couple of months. How do the numbers look? Any success?

Sorry, thought had done results but see I have not. Will do so soon. Ended a little down on my quoted PL flat bets (was up on another site earlier in the year before I got banned). Profitable season for me overall.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers extra extra bet: 2:55 Cheltenham Because of more rain, softer ground making more of a test of stamina: £11 @15/2 Lead On (14% 6/1)

[PL_Crewman]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

If it is good-soft now it will be softer come post time so no more on Leslingtaylor yet. 2:20 Cheltenham extra: £22 @ 6.6/1 Kalca Mome Can see River City being a non-runner so won't go for a saver on Voy Por yet. 2:55 Cheltenham extra: £4 @ 10.5/1 Osana £4 @ 43/1 Altihar (4.5% 22/1) £3 @ 29/1 Victram (5% 20/1) £2 @ 119/1 Wizard Of Us

:clap

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

With doubts about the going will just do a half bet so far, have worked out form for good-soft. 1:10 Cheltenham £30 @ 4.7/1 Leslingtaylor (23% 100/30) Fell price taken 4.7/1 17.5% -£30 Defecit 2:20 Cheltenham £18 @ 7.6/1 Kalca Mome (15% 11/2) extra: £22 @ 6.6/1 Kalca Mome 1st Total Return incl. 20% reduction factor £265.60 combined stake £40 revised combined price taken 5.64/1 17.7% +£225 Profit 2:55 Cheltenham £36 @ 8/1 Pevensey (15.5% 11/2) £9 @ 8.2/1 Osana (13% 13/2) 2nd £4 @ 18/1 Poquelin (7.75% 12/1) non-runner £9 @ 43/1 French Saulaie (4.5% 22/1) £2 @ 74/1 Heathcote (2.75% 33/1) £2 @ 99/1 Wizard Of Us (2% 50/1)

extra: £4 @ 10.5/1 Osana £4 @ 43/1 Altihar non-runner £3 @ 29/1 Victram £2 @ 119/1 Wizard Of Us £11 @ 15/2 Lead On combined price 40.8% 6/4 combined stake £78 incl. non-runners -£78 Defceit Todays stake £148 Todays Return £265.60 Todays Profit £117.60

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Total Returns £1145.50 Total Staked £532.00 Total Profit £613.50 115% Added Runners Percentages 212.4 Avg. price per race 30.3% 9/4 Avg. price per horse (21 horses backed excl. NRs) 10.1% 9/1 Added Win Percentages 87.6 Avg. winners price 21.9% 7/2 Strike Rate 4/7 57.1%

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Next bet possibly wednesday night for Wincanton thursday.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:30 Wincanton £55 @ 3.9/1 Hugo Wolf (30% 9/4) £35 @ 1.6/1 Shanxi Girl (44% 5/4) This is not the usual stakes but as I can not easily see both getting beat have compromised them slightly. 3:00 Wincanton £80 @ 3.2/1 Geeveem (5/2 28.5% 5/2) 3:30 Wincanton £57 @ 5.4/1 Cryptic (7/2 22%) £20 @ 3/1 Super Nick (5/2 29%) 4:00 Wincanton £45 @ 5.8/1 Jupon Vert (19% 9/2) Analysis to come

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:30 Wincanton Shanxi Girl and Hugo Wolf both have potential to improve yet probably have the best form too. The former takes a big step up in trip but should be suited by it, by both the way she runs and breeding. From a stable in form and only just had enough pace last time at a bear 2m (now 2m6f). Ran well enough at Chepstow to suggest she will act on the soft surface. Hugo Wolf's ability to handle soft has to be taken on trust (form on a sound surface). No doubt if his in form, excellant trainer thinks not, he will be pulled out. Has made mistakes but with a long break to iron out problems should run well. The only possible real danger I can see is Saint Godegrand who surely needs to improve quite a bit in 3 days since his last run to trouble them. Of couse if it turns into a bog anything can happen. 3:00 Wincanton This 6 horse race looks between 3. Course specialist Tom Sayers has been in grand form here this season (good 2nd to Abrigante last time). However, he is possibly best on a sound surface and might be taken on for the lead by Nykel. Nykel won well here on his reappearance last season (after breathing op) and if running to that form again will go close. Gets on well with Wayne Hutchinson who takes the ride despite Robert Thornton being at the track. Preference though is for Geeveem who may have more improvement in him, only three runs over fences to date. Acts well on soft and stays well. At around 100/30 unusually looks over priced for a Nicholls horse at Wincers. Just hope his jumping holds up. The other three I rate as having just a 7% chance betwen them. 3:30 Wincanton Cryptic ran an encouraging race at Aintree on debut to suggest he can take a hand here. On a dubious line through the winner there (crocodiles Rock) has a couple of lengths to make up on Earth Planet. Like that horse by Kayf Tara so should improve for the step up to 2 3/4m. Earth Planet looks priced up on Nicholls reputation rather than form. Placed in a Grade 3 bumper at Newbury (well behind Crocodiles Rock). Is no doubt well thought of though. Super Nick was 50/1 when last seen, PU in the Grade 1 Sefton novice hurdle behind Chief Dan George at Aintree. Good 2nd before that at Newbury. Ran in 06/07 for Twiston-Davis now with the in form Venetia Williams. Wazalino (dissapointed on reapearance) and the unraced Wind Instrument look best of the rest. 4:00 Wincanton Jupon Vert is on a long losing run but there does not look too much wrong with his temperament. More consistant than most of these. The softer going today might help blunt the speed of his rivals. Usually jumps well. Ran well at Fontwell 4 days ago and a reproduction of that may be good enough. Pauntly Gofa was not that far behind Kalca Mome at Cheltenham but that race seemed slowly run (flattered). Even so can not be dismissed and considering a saver. The Local is descent on his day but when that day is is anyones guess. Is well handicapped on some form. Coming back to fences might help this enigmatic front-runner. The first two mentioned can also go from the front and dictating is probably important to him. Soft going will not hinder. Island Of Memories has not found much off the bridle of late but has her chance on the book. Lidgo De Rouge been running over the smaller obstacles in GB without much encouragement. Had run over fences in France. Good Old Days won a poor race last time and may not like the soft surface.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers The official going has not changed but there has been 13mm of rain overnight. Anyone betting now in the 2:30 might want to have Shanxi Girl as the main bet with Hugo Wolf the saver. As Hugo Wolf may not like it too soft.

[moddi1]

Re: Gingers Jumpers geeveem and Cryptic :clap awesome plays man

[mileni4uk]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

3:00 Wincanton £80 @ 3.2/1 Geeveem (5/2 28.5% 5/2) 3:30 Wincanton £57 @ 5.4/1 Cryptic (7/2 22%)

2 great winners, mate :ok You shouldn't have said anything about the rain :eyes This made me leave your bets for today :$

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

2:30 Wincanton £55 @ 3.9/1 Hugo Wolf (30% 9/4) PU £35 @ 1.6/1 Shanxi Girl (44% 5/4) Fell This is not the usual stakes but as I can not easily see both getting beat have compromised them slightly. Got that one a bit wrong! combined price 58.9% 8/11 -£90 Defecit 3:00 Wincanton £80 @ 3.2/1 Geeveem (5/2 28.5% 5/2) 1st Return £336.00 23.8% +£256 Profit 3:30 Wincanton £57 @ 5.4/1 Cryptic (7/2 22%) 1st Return £364.80 £20 @ 3/1 Super Nick (5/2 29%) cp 40.6% 6/4 cs £77 +£287.80 Profit 4:00 Wincanton £45 @ 5.8/1 Jupon Vert (19% 9/2) 2nd 14.7% -£45 Defecit

Days Return £700.80 Days Stake £292.00 Days Profit £408.80