Laying Correct Scores

[Hodgey]

Ok I'm gonna paper trail another system here. It involves the Correct Score markets and laying one of the more fancied scores on a match. The basis behind the lay will be the price comparison between Betbrain and Betfair (subject to the best price coming from a reputable bookie I have heard of). Reasoning? Well not much concrete stuff really! :lol Basically, it's a very liquid market and there's loads of outcomes. But the main crux is something along the lines of if a bookmaker has a price of X, then if I can get within 5-10% of that price to lay then I'm possibly laying at the fair odds price after allowing for bookmakers overround (which is huge on CS markets). However I'm also aware that the majority of the overround is probably allocated to the higher odds scores that are less likely to come up. Again, this is pure speculation on my part and not backed up by any scientific proof. :unsure I will stick to the larger leagues, probably just the English Premiership to start with, as this is the most liquid and will be covered by the most bookies. Each lay will have a liability of 50pts - to keep the maths simple. Commission will be at Betfair's standard 5%. I will start on Saturday, but here's an example of what it will look like from tonight's Scottish match. Hearts v Hibs Score to Lay 1-0 Best Bookie Price 8.00 Stan James Betfair lay price 8.20 Price Diff 2.5% So lay 1-0 at odds of 8.20 (1.139) to win 6.94 (gross) with liability of 50pts. Clear as mud?! :loon Thoughts and constructive criticisms welcomed. And any holes in my reasoning too? :ok

[F.]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Very good luck pal... :hope Please keep us posted on the results of the matches you choose and on the progression of your bank... Cheers !! F.

[aliando]

Re: Laying Correct Scores good luck mate!

[Datapunter]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Wouldn't hurt to collect and include a bit of statistical data, - scoreline % of the competition, - # of goals of the teams recently, - odds Total goals , Under/Over, to name but a few, even if it's just to support the proofing so you can look afterwards if there is any value in including/excluding based on some stat info.

[Dumyat]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Hearts were around 10/11 to win - so the true 1-0 chance would be somewhere in the range 10-12%. If say 11% then laying edge after BF tax of 5% is less than 1% - but still a profit. As you mention bookies take vast margin on CS but much less on the more likely scores. I suspect if you offer 10% more than bookie best price then edge will go negative. eg at 8.8 and true 11% then -0.16%. But if you only go with 2.5% then may not get any action!

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

Wouldn't hurt to collect and include a bit of statistical data, - scoreline % of the competition, - # of goals of the teams recently, - odds Total goals , Under/Over, to name but a few, even if it's just to support the proofing so you can look afterwards if there is any value in including/excluding based on some stat info.

I will try and include some additional information, time permitting, cos agree it might throw up some extra points.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

Hearts were around 10/11 to win - so the true 1-0 chance would be somewhere in the range 10-12%. If say 11% then laying edge after BF tax of 5% is less than 1% - but still a profit. As you mention bookies take vast margin on CS but much less on the more likely scores. I suspect if you offer 10% more than bookie best price then edge will go negative. eg at 8.8 and true 11% then -0.16%. But if you only go with 2.5% then may not get any action!

Is there a table that converts match odds into CS odds? I know it's on the back of the weekend coupons in the shops, but wondered if it's online somewhere? I won't be laying if the price is over 10% bigger. Ideally I'd like to be under 5%, and hoping to get within 2-3%.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Ok, first one for real in terms of the thread but rememeber this is a paper trail only. Sunderland v Tottenham Score to Lay 1-1 Best Bookie Price 7.00 Blue Sq Betfair lay price 7.20 Price Diff 2.9% I have also recorded the HDA and O/U prices, but they are irrelevant at the moment so wont be posting them as I go.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores And the rest of the Prem games.

Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %
Sunderland v Tottenham	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%
Bolton v Newcastle	1-0	8.00	Laddies	8.00	0.0%
Derby v Portsmouth	0-1	8.00	Laddies	8.20	2.5%
Everton v Wigan	1-0	7.00	Centrebet	7.20	2.9%
Middlesbrough v Blackburn	1-2	12.00	BlueSQ	11.50	-4.2%
West Ham v Man City	2-1	9.50	Betinternet	9.20	-3.2%
Aston Villa v Liverpool	0-1	8.00	Stan James	7.80	-2.5%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores The one with the 'best value' beforehand lands. :wall D'oh! Need another goal in the Villa v Liverpool game too.....

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 2 late goals in the Villa match means just one loser today, but that's enough to get this off to a slight losing start.

Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
Sunderland v Tottenham	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	1-0	W	7.66	7.66
Bolton v Newcastle	1-0	8.00	Laddies	8.00	0.0%	1-3	W	6.79	14.45
Derby v Portsmouth	0-1	8.00	Laddies	8.20	2.5%	2-2	W	6.60	21.05
Everton v Wigan	1-0	7.00	Centrebet	7.20	2.9%	2-1	W	7.66	28.71
Middlesbrough v Blackburn	1-2	12.00	BlueSQ	11.50	-4.2%	1-2	L	(50.00)	(21.29)
West Ham v Man City	2-1	9.50	Betinternet	9.20	-3.2%	0-2	W	5.79	(15.50)
Aston Villa v Liverpool	0-1	8.00	Stan James	7.80	-2.5%	1-2	W	6.99	(8.51)

Summary Bets Placed 7 Units Staked 350.00 Units Returned 341.49 Profit (8.51) Yield -2.43% Strike Rate 85.71% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00

[aliando]

Re: Laying Correct Scores not bad mind - 1 in 7 loses and you're about even. I'd say that the long-term plan looks good on those stats...

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

not bad mind - 1 in 7 loses and you're about even. I'd say that the long-term plan looks good on those stats...

Yeah still early days so we'll see how it goes. Of course the other way at looking at it could be that the value is in the bookie prices if they are higher than the Betfair price! :unsure This could turn out to be a backing correct scores thread instead! :loon But for now, I shall continue laying. 3 for today: Arsenal v Fulham Score to Lay 2-1 Best Bookie Price 9.00 Centrebet Betfair lay price 8.80 Price Diff -2.2% Chelsea v Birmingham Score to Lay 1-1 Best Bookie Price 14.00 Canbet Betfair lay price 13.00 Price Diff -7.1% Man Utd v Reading Score to Lay 2-1 Best Bookie Price 10.00 Stan James Betfair lay price 10.00 Price Diff 0.0%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 90th minute goal from the Arse scupper today's lays.

Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
												(8.51)
Arsenal v Fulham	2-1	9.00	Centrebet	8.80	-2.2%	6.41	1.128	50.00	2-1	L	(50.00)	(58.51)
Chelsea v Birmingham	1-1	14.00	Canbet	13.00	-7.1%	4.17	1.083	50.00	3-2	W	3.96	(54.55)
Man Utd v Reading	2-1	10.00	Stan James	10.00	0.0%	5.56	1.111	50.00	0-0	W	5.28	(49.27)

Summary Bets Placed 10 Units Staked 500.00 Units Returned 450.73 Profit (49.27) Yield -9.85% Strike Rate 80.00% Average Odds 1.13 Average Stake 50.00 Could be the makings of a beautiful back thread! :rollin

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores One Prem game tonight: Tottenham v Everton Score to Lay 2-0 Best Bookie Price 9.50 Centrebet Betfair lay price 9.80 Price Diff 3.2%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Tottenham 1-3 Everton so a winning lay. Summary Bets Placed 11 Units Staked 550.00 Units Returned 506.13 Profit (43.87) Yield -7.98% Strike Rate 81.82% Average Odds 1.13 Average Stake 50.00

[Hodgey]

[Hodgey]

[Hodgey]

[Hodgey]

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Todays 3:

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
													30.17
19-Aug	Man City v Man Utd	1-2	10.00	Centrebet	10.00	0.0%	5.56	1.111	50.00			0.00	30.17
19-Aug	Blackburn v Arsenal	0-1	8.00	Laddies	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00			0.00	30.17
19-Aug	Liverpool v Chelsea	1-0	8.00	Laddies	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00			0.00	30.17

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 3 more winners so 10/10 for the weekend. :ok

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
													30.17
19-Aug	Man City v Man Utd	1-2	10.00	Centrebet	10.00	0.0%	5.56	1.111	50.00	1-0	W	5.28	35.45
19-Aug	Blackburn v Arsenal	0-1	8.00	Laddies	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00	1-1	W	6.79	42.24
19-Aug	Liverpool v Chelsea	1-0	8.00	Laddies	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00	1-1	W	6.79	49.03

Summary Bets Placed 27 Units Staked 1,350.00 Units Returned 1,399.03 Profit 49.03 Yield 3.63% Strike Rate 92.59% Average Odds 1.12 Average Stake 50.00

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Hmmm slight problem in that Betbrain are not showing Correct Score odds at the moment. :\ So for this one I have used http://www.odds-comparison.co.uk/ Sunderland v Liverpool Score to Lay 0-2 Best Bookie Price 8.00 Coral Betfair lay price 7.60 Price Diff -5.0%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Here's the rest of todays:

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
													49.03
25-Aug	Sunderland v Liverpool	0-2	8.00	Coral	7.60	-5.0%	7.58	1.152	50.00			0.00	49.03
25-Aug	Arsenal v Man City	2-1	8.50	BlueSQ	8.80	3.5%	6.41	1.128	50.00			0.00	49.03
25-Aug	Aston Villa v Fulham	1-0	7.00	Stan James	7.00	0.0%	8.33	1.167	50.00			0.00	49.03
25-Aug	Bolton v Reading	1-2	15.00	Hills	15.00	0.0%	3.57	1.071	50.00			0.00	49.03
25-Aug	Chelsea v Portsmouth	1-1	11.00	Betfred	10.50	-4.5%	5.26	1.105	50.00			0.00	49.03
25-Aug	Derby v Birmingham	1-2	15.00	Hills	14.50	-3.3%	3.70	1.074	50.00			0.00	49.03
25-Aug	West Ham v Wigan	1-2	17.00	BlueSQ	17.00	0.0%	3.13	1.063	50.00			0.00	49.03
25-Aug	Everton v Blackburn	2-2	17.00	BlueSQ	17.50	2.9%	3.03	1.061	50.00			0.00	49.03

4 are over the 11.00 so I have noted the best price of 11.00 or under too. They are: Bolton v Reading 1-1 7.00 7.40 BlueSQ Derby v Birmingham 2-1 11.00 11.00 Hills West Ham v Wigan 1-0 7.50 7.80 Canbet Everton v Blackburn 1-1 7.00 7.20 BlueSQ Incidentally, over the first 3 weeks laying the best score at 11.00 or under is slightly better but still only a handful of bets to compare.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Sunderland 0-2 Liverpool. Not a good start to the weekend thanks to a late 2nd Liverpool goal.

[Hodgey]

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 1st one today: Middlesborough v Newcastle Score to Lay 1-1 Best Bookie Price 7.00 Blue Sq Betfair lay price 7.20 Price Diff 2.9%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Need another goal in the North East derby.... :\ 2nd one today is: Man Utd v Tottenham Score to Lay 3-1 Best Bookie Price 13.00 Canbet Betfair lay price 13.00 Price Diff 0.0% This is over the 11.0 mark, so the back up score is 2-0 Blue Sq 7.00 lay 7.20

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Well we got 2 more goals in the Boro game and Man Utd won 1-0 to give us 2 more winners. Summary Bets Placed 37 Units Staked 1,850.00 Units Returned 1,838.90 Profit (11.10) Yield -0.60% Strike Rate 89.19% Average Odds 1.12 Average Stake 50.00 And this is the summary if I were using the cut off of 11.00, which the more I think about it the more I think I would. Summary - 11.00 Max Bets Placed 37 Units Staked 1,850.00 Units Returned 1,870.25 Profit 20.25 Yield 1.09% Strike Rate 89.19% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00

[F.]