Laying Correct Scores

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Thanks for those F. :ok Some interesting stuff there for me to look at.

You have been considering a 11.00 cutoff and from the data it looks like it's the right decision to take. However, take a look at 1-0 and 1-1. Profitable odds should be *much* shorter.

Totally agree. The avg odds of my 1-1 lays so far has been 7.57 and for 1-0 it's been 7.73. And all bar 2 scores to lay have been in the ones you highlighted in bold, the others being 1-2 and 0-2. Once I have some more data I will analyse out and seperate into scores, avg lay prices, % diffs and anything else I think will be relevant. :ok Cheers again, Hodgey.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Ok, I've made the executive decision to proof using the 11.00 odds cut off from now on. I will still continue to monitor the larger prices so I can compare at the end of the season, but from now on these lays will be the best 'value' at a max price of 11.00. So today lays:

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
													20.25
01-Sep	Bolton v Everton	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00			0.00	20.25
01-Sep	Fulham v Tottenham	1-2	10.00	Hills	10.00	0.0%	5.56	1.111	50.00			0.00	20.25
01-Sep	Liverpool v Derby	2-0	6.50	Betfred	6.20	-4.6%	9.62	1.192	50.00			0.00	20.25
01-Sep	Middlesbrough v Birmingham	1-0	8.00	Betdirect	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00			0.00	20.25
01-Sep	Newcastle v Wigan	2-1	8.50	BlueSQ	8.40	-1.2%	6.76	1.135	50.00			0.00	20.25
01-Sep	Reading v West Ham	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.40	5.7%	7.81	1.156	50.00			0.00	20.25
01-Sep	Man Utd v Sunderland	2-0	6.50	Betfred	6.40	-1.5%	9.26	1.185	50.00			0.00	20.25

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Lucky 7 today thanks to a late goal for Everton. :ok

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
													20.25
01-Sep	Bolton v Everton	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00	1-2	W	7.66	27.91
01-Sep	Fulham v Tottenham	1-2	10.00	Hills	10.00	0.0%	5.56	1.111	50.00	3-3	W	5.28	33.19
01-Sep	Liverpool v Derby	2-0	6.50	Betfred	6.20	-4.6%	9.62	1.192	50.00	6-0	W	9.13	42.32
01-Sep	Middlesbrough v Birmingham	1-0	8.00	Betdirect	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00	2-0	W	6.79	49.11
01-Sep	Newcastle v Wigan	2-1	8.50	BlueSQ	8.40	-1.2%	6.76	1.135	50.00	1-0	W	6.42	55.53
01-Sep	Reading v West Ham	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.40	5.7%	7.81	1.156	50.00	0-3	W	7.42	62.95
01-Sep	Man Utd v Sunderland	2-0	6.50	Betfred	6.40	-1.5%	9.26	1.185	50.00	1-0	W	8.80	71.75

Summary Bets Placed 44 Units Staked 2,200.00 Units Returned 2,271.75 Profit 71.75 Yield 3.26% Strike Rate 90.91% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Am out most of tomorrow so have had to do these earlier than usual. It doesn't seem to have had any adverse effects on the price differences though. But on paper the results look very likely! :\

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
													71.75
02-Sep	Arsenal v Portsmouth	2-1	8.50	BlueSQ	8.40	-1.2%	6.76	1.135	50.00			0.00	71.75
02-Sep	Blackburn v Man City	1-0	8.00	Laddies	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00			0.00	71.75
02-Sep	Aston Villa v Chelsea	0-1	7.00	Coral	6.80	-2.9%	8.62	1.172	50.00			0.00	71.75

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Blackburn win 1-0 to ruin what would have been a full house weekend. Still showed a slight profit of 16 units overall.

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)
												8.80
02-Sep	Arsenal v Portsmouth	2-1	8.50	BlueSQ	8.40	-1.2%	6.76	1.135	50.00	3-1	W	6.42
02-Sep	Blackburn v Man City	1-0	8.00	Laddies	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00	1-0	L	(50.00)
02-Sep	Aston Villa v Chelsea	0-1	7.00	Coral	6.80	-2.9%	8.62	1.172	50.00	2-0	W	8.19

Summary Bets Placed 47 Units Staked 2,350.00 Units Returned 2,386.36 Profit 36.36 Yield 1.55% Strike Rate 89.36% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00

[thunderfoot]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Ever thought of DUTCH'ing the Correct Scores? Some Leagues better than others. I looked at DUTCH'ing the odds based on the 'Ranking' i.e. lowest Odds is Ranked 1; highest odds is ranked 17 (on Betfair) From the work I did, there's something there.;)

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

Ever thought of DUTCH'ing the Correct Scores? Some Leagues better than others. I looked at DUTCH'ing the odds based on the 'Ranking' i.e. lowest Odds is Ranked 1; highest odds is ranked 17 (on Betfair) From the work I did, there's something there.;)

I have looked at that too briefly, like dutching the favourite 5 scores, but it's not something I'm really that interested in. Maybe you'd like to start a thread with the work you did. ;)

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores OK we're back after the international break. The first two early games as follows: Everton v Man Utd Score to Lay 1-2 Best Bookie Price 9.00 Sportingbet Betfair lay price 9.00 Price Diff 0.0% Portsmouth v Liverpool Score to Lay 0-1 Best Bookie Price 7.00 Betfred Betfair lay price 7.20 Price Diff 2.9%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Didn't realise the North London Derby was early kick off too. Tottenham v Arsenal Score to Lay 1-1 Best Bookie Price 7.00 Canbet Betfair lay price 7.20 Price Diff 2.9%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Birmingham v Bolton Score to Lay 1-1 Best Bookie Price 7.00 Blue Sq Betfair lay price 7.20 Price Diff 2.9% Sunderland v Reading Score to Lay 1-1 Best Bookie Price 7.00 Canbet Betfair lay price 7.40 Price Diff 5.7% West Ham v Middlesborough Score to Lay 1-0 Best Bookie Price 8.00 Betdirect Betfair lay price 7.80 Price Diff -2.5% Wigan v Fulham Score to Lay 1-1 Best Bookie Price 7.00 Blue Sq Betfair lay price 7.20 Price Diff 2.9%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Chelsea v Blackburn Score to Lay 1-1 Best Bookie Price 10.00 Skybet Betfair lay price 9.40 Price Diff -6.0%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Only Wigan v Fulham ruining the day today, but 7/8 still results in a 1pt loss. Incidentally, the over 11.00's would have produced another loser in the form of Tottenham 1-3 Arsenal so 11.00 or under definitely looking the way to go.

Bookie	Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
														36.36
Betfair	15-Sep	Everton v Man Utd	1-2	9.00	Sportingbet	9.00	0.0%	6.25	1.125	50.00	0-1	W	5.94	42.30
Betfair	15-Sep	Portsmouth v Liverpool	0-1	7.00	Betfred	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00	0-0	W	7.66	49.96
Betfair	15-Sep	Tottenham v Arsenal	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00	1-3	W	7.66	57.62
Betfair	15-Sep	Birmingham v Bolton	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00	1-0	W	7.66	65.28
Betfair	15-Sep	Sunderland v Reading	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.40	5.7%	7.81	1.156	50.00	2-1	W	7.42	72.70
Betfair	15-Sep	West Ham v Middlesbrough	1-0	8.00	Betdirect	7.80	-2.5%	7.35	1.147	50.00	3-0	W	6.99	79.69
Betfair	15-Sep	Wigan v Fulham	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00	1-1	L	(50.00)	29.69
Betfair	15-Sep	Chelsea v Blackburn	1-1	10.00	Skybet	9.40	-6.0%	5.95	1.119	50.00	0-0	W	5.65	35.34

Summary Bets Placed 55 Units Staked 2,750.00 Units Returned 2,785.34 Profit 35.34 Yield 1.29% Strike Rate 89.09% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Man City v Aston Villa Score to Lay 1-1 Best Bookie Price 7.00 Canbet Betfair lay price 7.20 Price Diff 2.9% Incidentally, the 6th game this weekend where I'm laying 1-1. :\

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Man City won 1-0 so another winner. Summary Bets Placed 56 Units Staked 2,800.00 Units Returned 2,843.00 Profit 43.00 Yield 1.54% Strike Rate 89.29% Average Odds 1.15 Average Stake 50.00

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Nothing much really close to the bookie prices on the 'short' scores. Closest being 0-2, so: Derby v Newcastle Score to Lay 0-2 Best Bookie Price 9.00 Skybet Betfair lay price 9.60 Price Diff 6.7% The closest is 0-3 at BlueSQ 17.00 to 17.50 so will note that too.

[vabanque]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Very nice thread, Hodgey! I'm just too stupid, I can't find any correct scores odds at betbrain... only overs and unders :$ Do you have a pro version or where do you get these odds from exactly? Keep it going and good luck!

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

Very nice thread, Hodgey! I'm just too stupid, I can't find any correct scores odds at betbrain... only overs and unders :$ Do you have a pro version or where do you get these odds from exactly? Keep it going and good luck!

Thanks vabanque. :) No you're not going mad mate, they've just taken them off for a while due to memory issues. :ok

Correct Score Odds Due to memory issues on our servers, we have unfortunately had to temporarily remove the odds for the correct score bets. They will return once the issue is resolved. We apologize for inconvenience caused.

This happened once before and then they re-instated them after a while. However in the mean time I'm using http://www.odds-comparison.co.uk/ :ok

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Well Derby beat Newcastle 1-0 last night so another winner and a profit of 12pts on the weekend as a whole. Summary Bets Placed 57 Units Staked 2,850.00 Units Returned 2,898.52 Profit 48.52 Yield 1.70% Strike Rate 89.47% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00 The yield is pushing up towards 2.00% - still not massive but better than a loss! :lol Have also compared the results with a fixed profit staking plan of 10pts per match and this slightly improves the yield. Probably due to the high strike rate. Maybe higher strike rate suits fixed profits staking better than fixed liability. :unsure Fixed Profit Bets Placed 57 Units Staked 4,036.00 Units Returned 4,120.50 Profit 84.50 Yield 2.09% Strike Rate 89.47% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 70.81 Of course, still a very small sample size and it would only take a couple of losses to wipe out any profits so far. But we'll carry on and :hope that doesn't happen.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Today's 5:

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
													48.52
22-Sep	Arsenal v Derby	1-0	8.00	Betfred	7.80	-2.5%	7.35	1.147	50.00			0.00	48.52
22-Sep	Liverpool v Birmingham	1-0	7.50	Betfred	7.20	-4.0%	8.06	1.161	50.00			0.00	48.52
22-Sep	Middlesbrough v Sunderland	2-1	9.00	BlueSQ	9.40	4.4%	5.95	1.119	50.00			0.00	48.52
22-Sep	Reading v Wigan	1-0	8.00	Stan James	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00			0.00	48.52
22-Sep	Fulham v Man City	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00			0.00	48.52

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 4 for 4 this arvo thanks to a last minute equaliser for Sunderland. :D Man City just equalised as I type so need another goal in that one now....

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 5/5 for a full house today and 35pts profit. :ok

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
													48.52
22-Sep	Arsenal v Derby	1-0	8.00	Betfred	7.80	-2.5%	7.35	1.147	50.00	5-0	W	6.99	55.51
22-Sep	Liverpool v Birmingham	1-0	7.50	Betfred	7.20	-4.0%	8.06	1.161	50.00	0-0	W	7.66	63.17
22-Sep	Middlesbrough v Sunderland	2-1	9.00	BlueSQ	9.40	4.4%	5.95	1.119	50.00	2-2	W	5.65	68.82
22-Sep	Reading v Wigan	1-0	8.00	Stan James	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00	2-1	W	6.79	75.61
22-Sep	Fulham v Man City	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00	3-3	W	7.66	83.27

[staffy]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Nice 1 Hodgey.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

Nice 1 Hodgey.

Cheers mate. :ok I'll put the summary in here now too cos the yield might never get this high again! :lol Summary Bets Placed 62 Units Staked 3,100.00 Units Returned 3,183.27 Profit 83.27 Yield 2.69% Strike Rate 90.32% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Having to do tomorrow's earlier than usual and there's not much 'value' in two of the games - not sure if this is cos doing them earlier or not. A first outing for a 0-0 lay too. :unsure

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
													48.52
22-Sep	Arsenal v Derby	1-0	8.00	Betfred	7.80	-2.5%	7.35	1.147	50.00	5-0	W	6.99	55.51
22-Sep	Liverpool v Birmingham	1-0	7.50	Betfred	7.20	-4.0%	8.06	1.161	50.00	0-0	W	7.66	63.17
22-Sep	Middlesbrough v Sunderland	2-1	9.00	BlueSQ	9.40	4.4%	5.95	1.119	50.00	2-2	W	5.65	68.82
22-Sep	Reading v Wigan	1-0	8.00	Stan James	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00	2-1	W	6.79	75.61
22-Sep	Fulham v Man City	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00	3-3	W	7.66	83.27
23-Sep	Newcastle v West Ham	1-1	7.00	Bet365	7.60	8.6%	7.58	1.152	50.00			0.00	83.27
23-Sep	Aston Villa v Everton	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.00	0.0%	8.33	1.167	50.00			0.00	83.27
23-Sep	Blackburn v Portsmouth	1-0	7.00	Bet365	7.60	8.6%	7.58	1.152	50.00			0.00	83.27
23-Sep	Bolton v Tottenham	1-2	11.00	Betfred	11.00	0.0%	5.00	1.100	50.00			0.00	83.27
23-Sep	Man Utd v Chelsea	0-0	9.00	Coral	8.80	-2.2%	6.41	1.128	50.00			0.00	83.27

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 10/10 on the weekend for a profit of 68pts. :dude

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
													48.52
22-Sep	Arsenal v Derby	1-0	8.00	Betfred	7.80	-2.5%	7.35	1.147	50.00	5-0	W	6.99	55.51
22-Sep	Liverpool v Birmingham	1-0	7.50	Betfred	7.20	-4.0%	8.06	1.161	50.00	0-0	W	7.66	63.17
22-Sep	Middlesbrough v Sunderland	2-1	9.00	BlueSQ	9.40	4.4%	5.95	1.119	50.00	2-2	W	5.65	68.82
22-Sep	Reading v Wigan	1-0	8.00	Stan James	8.00	0.0%	7.14	1.143	50.00	2-1	W	6.79	75.61
22-Sep	Fulham v Man City	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00	3-3	W	7.66	83.27
23-Sep	Newcastle v West Ham	1-1	7.00	Bet365	7.60	8.6%	7.58	1.152	50.00	3-1	W	7.20	90.47
23-Sep	Aston Villa v Everton	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.00	0.0%	8.33	1.167	50.00	2-0	W	7.92	98.39
23-Sep	Blackburn v Portsmouth	1-0	7.00	Bet365	7.60	8.6%	7.58	1.152	50.00	0-1	W	7.20	105.59
23-Sep	Bolton v Tottenham	1-2	11.00	Betfred	11.00	0.0%	5.00	1.100	50.00	1-1	W	4.75	110.34
23-Sep	Man Utd v Chelsea	0-0	9.00	Coral	8.80	-2.2%	6.41	1.128	50.00	2-0	W	6.09	116.43

Summary Bets Placed 67 Units Staked 3,350.00 Units Returned 3,466.43 Profit 116.43 Yield 3.48% Strike Rate 91.04% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00

[F.]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

10/10 on the weekend for a profit of 68pts. :dude

Great job there Hodgey !! :clap:clap:clap

Summary Bets Placed 67 Profit 116.43 Yield 3.48% Strike Rate 91.04% Average Odds 1.14

I definitely like those numbers. Let's hope they keep going up :D F.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

Great job there Hodgey !! :clap:clap:clap I definitely like those numbers. Let's hope they keep going up :D F.

Thanks mate. :) I've also done some analysis on the individual scores and odds of the selections. Will post them up later or maybe when there's a few more bets. :ok

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores The early kick off today: Man City v Newcastle Score to Lay 1-0 Best Bookie Price 8.00 Laddies Betfair lay price 8.00 Price Diff 0.0%

[Hodgey]

[aliando]

Re: Laying Correct Scores going well mate - keep it going!