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Laying Correct Scores


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Re: Laying Correct Scores Apologies these are posted late (ie after ko). I wrote them down this morning but have been laying flooring and didn't have time to post them before. :$

DateWagerScoreBetbrainBookieLay OddsDiff %Lay StakeBack OddsLiabilityResultW/LP/(L)Balance
116.43
29-SepMan City v Newcastle1-08.00Laddies8.000.0%7.141.14350.00 0.00116.43
29-SepChelsea v Fulham1-07.50Tote7.601.3%7.581.15250.00 0.00116.43
29-SepDerby v Bolton1-17.00BlueSQ7.202.9%8.061.16150.00 0.00116.43
29-SepPortsmouth v Reading2-18.50BlueSQ8.601.2%6.581.13250.00 0.00116.43
29-SepSunderland v Blackburn1-17.00BlueSQ7.000.0%8.331.16750.00 0.00116.43
29-SepWest Ham v Arsenal1-28.50Sportingbet9.208.2%6.101.12250.00 0.00116.43
29-SepWigan v Liverpool0-27.50Coral7.601.3%7.581.15250.00 0.00116.43
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Re: Laying Correct Scores Well another 1-1 was bound to come in sooner or later. 7/8 winners but a loss of 1pt. Incidentally fixed profit staking would have shown a small profit today and is currently showing slightly better profits overall.

DateWagerScoreBetbrainBookieLay OddsDiff %Lay StakeBack OddsLiabilityResultW/LP/(L)Balance
116.43
29-SepMan City v Newcastle1-08.00Laddies8.000.0%7.141.14350.003-1W6.79123.22
29-SepChelsea v Fulham1-07.50Tote7.601.3%7.581.15250.000-0W7.20130.42
29-SepDerby v Bolton1-17.00BlueSQ7.202.9%8.061.16150.001-1L(50.00)80.42
29-SepPortsmouth v Reading2-18.50BlueSQ8.601.2%6.581.13250.007-4W6.2586.67
29-SepSunderland v Blackburn1-17.00BlueSQ7.000.0%8.331.16750.001-2W7.9294.59
29-SepWest Ham v Arsenal1-28.50Sportingbet9.208.2%6.101.12250.000-1W5.79100.38
29-SepWigan v Liverpool0-27.50Coral7.601.3%7.581.15250.000-1W7.20107.58
29-SepBirmingham v Man Utd0-27.50Coral7.40-1.3%7.811.15650.000-1W7.42115.00
The Portsmouth game was a close call! :lol Summary Bets Placed 75 Units Staked 3,750.00 Units Returned 3,865.00 Profit 115.00 Yield 3.07% Strike Rate 90.67% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00
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Re: Laying Correct Scores Everton won 2-0 so another winner for 5pts profit. Summary Bets Placed 76 Units Staked 3,800.00 Units Returned 3,919.75 Profit 119.75 Yield 3.15% Strike Rate 90.79% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00 Fixed profit it still ahead: Fixed Profit Bets Placed 76 Units Staked 5,398.00 Units Returned 5,591.50 Profit 193.50 Yield 3.58% Strike Rate 90.79% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 71.03 But it's should be noted it's not fair to compare the profit figure, cos the average stakes are higher on fixed profit. However changing the fixed liability stakes to match gives a better comparison and it's still marginally better. (Where's that sniffy tool when you need it so I don't have to do this manually! :tongue2;)) Summary Bets Placed 76 Units Staked 5,398.28 Units Returned 5,568.24 Profit 169.96 Yield 3.15% Strike Rate 90.79% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 71.03 A couple of losers though would probably bring these back to fairly even. Let's hope they don't come. :hope

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Re: Laying Correct Scores Another close one last night then with Tottenham drawing 4-4! :eek So 9/10 for a profit of 8.60pts on this round of Premiership games. (Would have been 23.50pts with Fixed Profits) Summary Bets Placed 77 Units Staked 3,850.00 Units Returned 3,975.03 Profit 125.03 Yield 3.25% Strike Rate 90.91% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00 I must admit, I'm pleasantly surprised to have yield of 3.25%. Of course, a couple of losers would bring that down sharply. :hope it doesn't happen.

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Re: Laying Correct Scores Man Utd 4-0 Wigan Aston Villa 1-0 West Ham 2 winners for 12pts profit. :ok Summary Bets Placed 79 Units Staked 3,950.00 Units Returned 4,086.98 Profit 136.98 Yield 3.47% Strike Rate 91.14% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00

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Re: Laying Correct Scores

DateWagerScoreBetbrainBookieLay OddsDiff %Lay StakeBack OddsLiabilityResultW/LP/(L)Balance
125.03
06-OctMan Utd v Wigan1-08.00Betfred7.60-5.0%7.581.15250.004-0W7.20132.23
06-OctAston Villa v West Ham0-011.00Bet36511.000.0%5.001.10050.001-0W4.75136.98
07-OctArsenal v Sunderland1-08.00Betfred8.000.0%7.141.14350.00 0.00136.98
07-OctReading v Derby2-18.50BlueSQ9.005.9%6.251.12550.00 0.00136.98
07-OctBlackburn v Birmingham1-07.00Stan James7.000.0%8.331.16750.00 0.00136.98
07-OctBolton v Chelsea0-17.00Betfred7.000.0%8.331.16750.00 0.00136.98
07-OctLiverpool v Tottenham2-18.50Sportingbet8.803.5%6.411.12850.00 0.00136.98
07-OctMan City v Middlesbrough2-08.00Coral7.60-5.0%7.581.15250.00 0.00136.98
07-OctNewcastle v Everton1-08.00Laddies8.202.5%6.941.13950.00 0.00136.98
07-OctFulham v Portsmouth2-111.00Hills11.000.0%5.001.10050.00 0.00136.98
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Re: Laying Correct Scores Only Chelsea ruined another full house. So a 5pt loss yesterday results in a 7pt profit overall on the weekend.

DateWagerScoreBetbrainBookieLay OddsDiff %Lay StakeBack OddsLiabilityResultW/LP/(L)Balance
125.03
06-OctMan Utd v Wigan1-08.00Betfred7.60-5.0%7.581.15250.004-0W7.20132.23
06-OctAston Villa v West Ham0-011.00Bet36511.000.0%5.001.10050.001-0W4.75136.98
07-OctArsenal v Sunderland1-08.00Betfred8.000.0%7.141.14350.003-2W6.79143.77
07-OctReading v Derby2-18.50BlueSQ9.005.9%6.251.12550.001-0W5.94149.71
07-OctBlackburn v Birmingham1-07.00Stan James7.000.0%8.331.16750.002-1W7.92157.63
07-OctBolton v Chelsea0-17.00Betfred7.000.0%8.331.16750.000-1L(50.00)107.63
07-OctLiverpool v Tottenham2-18.50Sportingbet8.803.5%6.411.12850.002-2W6.09113.72
07-OctMan City v Middlesbrough2-08.00Coral7.60-5.0%7.581.15250.003-1W7.20120.92
07-OctNewcastle v Everton1-08.00Laddies8.202.5%6.941.13950.003-2W6.60127.52
07-OctFulham v Portsmouth2-111.00Hills11.000.0%5.001.10050.000-2W4.75132.27
Summary Bets Placed 87 Units Staked 4,350.00 Units Returned 4,482.27 Profit 132.27 Yield 3.04% Strike Rate 90.80% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00 Incidentally, using fixed profits would have returned 25.50pts on the weekend. I think this is definitely the way to go, seeing as the strike rate is so high. Fixed Profit Bets Placed 87 Units Staked 6,240.00 Units Returned 6,468.50 Profit 228.50 Yield 3.66% Strike Rate 90.80% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 71.72 It would also be quicker and easier placing the bets if this were ever to move from paper trail to real bets.
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Re: Laying Correct Scores

Nice work Hodgey' date=' I finally think I understand what you're doing now! :lol[/quote'] Cheers mate! :ok I unfortunately didn't have time to do these last weekend. Looking at the scores (and this is purely me second guessing) it looks like Arsenal 2-0 Bolton, Man City 1-0 Birmingham and Boro 0-2 Chelsea could have been likely scores but again impossible to tell for sure. So we'll just forget last weeks and move onto this weeks. I was toying with the idea of including other 'big' games like CL and UEFA cup games or indeed any largish TV game. I might add some into this thread and keep a seperate total of them too. I hope to get tomorrow's games up early, possibly tonight. I don't think doing them early will have any effect on the scores picked.
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Re: Laying Correct Scores Tomorrow's games:

07-OctFulham v Portsmouth2-111.00Hills11.000.0%5.001.10050.000-2W4.75132.27
27-OctBirmingham v Wigan1-08.00Laddies7.60-5.0%7.581.15250.00 0.00132.27
27-OctChelsea v Man City2-07.00Laddies7.000.0%8.331.16750.00 0.00132.27
27-OctMan Utd v Middlesbrough1-08.00Betfred8.000.0%7.141.14350.00 0.00132.27
27-OctReading v Newcastle1-17.00BlueSQ7.202.9%8.061.16150.00 0.00132.27
27-OctSunderland v Fulham2-19.50Centrebet9.601.1%5.811.11650.00 0.00132.27
27-OctPortsmouth v West Ham2-18.50Centrebet8.803.5%6.411.12850.00 0.00132.27
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Re: Laying Correct Scores Yesterday's results and today's lays:

DateWagerScoreBetbrainBookieLay OddsDiff %Lay StakeBack OddsLiabilityResultW/LP/(L)Balance
07-Oct132.27
27-OctBirmingham v Wigan1-08.00Laddies7.60-5.0%7.581.15250.003-2W7.20139.47
27-OctChelsea v Man City2-07.00Laddies7.000.0%8.331.16750.006-0W7.92147.39
27-OctMan Utd v Middlesbrough1-08.00Betfred8.000.0%7.141.14350.004-1W6.79154.18
27-OctReading v Newcastle1-17.00BlueSQ7.202.9%8.061.16150.002-1W7.66161.84
27-OctSunderland v Fulham2-19.50Centrebet9.601.1%5.811.11650.001-1W5.52167.36
27-OctPortsmouth v West Ham2-18.50Centrebet8.803.5%6.411.12850.000-0W6.09173.45
28-OctBolton v Aston Villa1-17.00BlueSQ7.405.7%7.811.15650.000.00173.45
28-OctDerby v Everton1-17.00BlueSQ7.000.0%8.331.16750.000.00173.45
28-OctTottenham v Blackburn2-19.50Centrebet9.803.2%5.681.11450.000.00173.45
28-OctLiverpool v Arsenal0-09.50Victor Chandler10.005.3%5.561.11150.000.00173.45
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Re: Laying Correct Scores I realy enjoy your thread hodgey! Keep up the good work! I have a few questions; If I understand it correctly your profit should be higher when you get below the bookie price. So why dont you only select matches where you get below this price? You could include other leagues in order to get enough matches? Why do you only use the English premiership? Other big leagues (Italian, german etc) have a lot of bookie coverage and liquidity as well. Doing this you could spread the risk and get a bigger sample size quicker.

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Re: Laying Correct Scores Bolton letting the side down today, but overall on the weekend it's 9 from 10 for 10pts profit or 21.50pts on fixed profits staking. I really must update my sheet to show fixed profits as that would definitely be the way I would play this if doing it for real.

DateWagerScoreBetbrainBookieLay OddsDiff %Lay StakeBack OddsLiabilityResultW/LP/(L)Balance
132.27
27-OctBirmingham v Wigan1-08.00Laddies7.60-5.0%7.581.15250.003-2W7.20139.47
27-OctChelsea v Man City2-07.00Laddies7.000.0%8.331.16750.006-0W7.92147.39
27-OctMan Utd v Middlesbrough1-08.00Betfred8.000.0%7.141.14350.004-1W6.79154.18
27-OctReading v Newcastle1-17.00BlueSQ7.202.9%8.061.16150.002-1W7.66161.84
27-OctSunderland v Fulham2-19.50Centrebet9.601.1%5.811.11650.001-1W5.52167.36
27-OctPortsmouth v West Ham2-18.50Centrebet8.803.5%6.411.12850.000-0W6.09173.45
28-OctBolton v Aston Villa1-17.00BlueSQ7.405.7%7.811.15650.001-1L(50.00)123.45
28-OctDerby v Everton1-17.00BlueSQ7.000.0%8.331.16750.000-2W7.92131.37
28-OctTottenham v Blackburn2-19.50Centrebet9.803.2%5.681.11450.001-2W5.40136.77
28-OctLiverpool v Arsenal0-09.50Victor Chandler10.005.3%5.561.11150.001-1W5.28142.05
Summary Bets Placed 97 Units Staked 4,850.00 Units Returned 4,992.05 Profit 142.05 Yield 2.93% Strike Rate 90.72% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00 Fixed Profit Bets Placed 97 Units Staked 6,964.00 Units Returned 7,214.00 Profit 250.00 Yield 3.59% Strike Rate 90.72% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 71.79
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Re: Laying Correct Scores Just having a quick peek at the Spanish and Italian league games tomorrow night. The liquidity is not great on some of the 'lesser' matches, but there's probably just about enough around the scores I'd be interested in. Plus it might pick up tomorrow evening. I will have a look, time permitting...

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Re: Laying Correct Scores Needless to say time got the better of me midweek and I never got the foreign ones down. :( Onto today then, and first match up is the big early kick off: Arsenal v Man Utd Score to Lay 1-1 Best Bookie Price 7.00 BlueSq Betfair lay price 7.20 Price Diff 2.9%

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Re: Laying Correct Scores Today's Prem games:

DateWagerScoreBetbrainBookieLay OddsDiff %Lay StakeBack OddsLiabilityResultW/LP/(L)Balance
142.05
03-NovArsenal v Man Utd1-17.00BlueSQ7.202.9%8.061.16150.00 0.00142.05
03-NovAston Villa v Derby3-011.00Centrebet11.000.0%5.001.10050.00 0.00142.05
03-NovEverton v Birmingham1-07.00Centrebet7.000.0%8.331.16750.00 0.00142.05
03-NovFulham v Reading1-17.00BlueSQ7.202.9%8.061.16150.00 0.00142.05
03-NovMiddlesbrough v Tottenham1-211.00Betfred11.000.0%5.001.10050.00 0.00142.05
03-NovNewcastle v Portsmouth1-17.50Centrebet7.40-1.3%7.811.15650.00 0.00142.05
03-NovWigan v Chelsea0-27.00Laddies7.202.9%8.061.16150.00 0.00142.05
03-NovBlackburn v Liverpool1-17.00BlueSQ7.202.9%8.061.16150.00 0.00142.05
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Re: Laying Correct Scores Ok had a look at the German games. There seems to be less choice of score because generally the odds are higher. I think this is because generally there are lots of goals in German Bundesliga. Anyway, I'll post them up here today and see how we go. Will keep these (and any other Euro leagues) seperate from the Prem updates.

DateWagerScoreBetbrainBookieLay OddsDiff %Lay StakeBack OddsLiabilityResultW/LP/(L)Balance
03-NovB Munich v Frankfurt2-111.00BlueSQ10.50-4.5%5.261.10550.00 0.000.00
03-NovHamburg v H Berlin1-08.00Sportingbet8.405.0%6.761.13550.00 0.000.00
03-NovHannover v Dortmund1-17.50Canbet7.804.0%7.351.14750.00 0.000.00
03-NovLeverkusen v Bielefeld2-18.50Sportingbet9.005.9%6.251.12550.00 0.000.00
03-NovNurnberg v Stuttgart1-17.00Canbet7.202.9%8.061.16150.00 0.000.00
03-NovW Bremen v H Rostock2-19.00BlueSQ9.202.2%6.101.12250.00 0.000.00
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Re: Laying Correct Scores A Spanish one: Mallorca v Valencia Score to Lay 1-0 Best Bookie Price 8.50 Sportingbet Betfair lay price 9.00 Price Diff 5.9% Wanted to get the Italian games in tonight but see I've missed the Lazio one. Nevermind, will get the other one and the other Spanish one in shortly.

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Re: Laying Correct Scores The other Spanish one: Sevilla v Real Madrid Score to Lay 1-1 Best Bookie Price 7.00 Canbet Betfair lay price 7.40 Price Diff 5.7% Incidentally I might have to look at raising the 11.00 limit for Spain as 1-1 and AUQ were the only scores below 11.00! :lol Might have to use 12.50 instead... And the Italian one: AC Milan v Torino Score to Lay 2-1 Best Bookie Price 9.50 Sportingbet Betfair lay price 9.00 Price Diff -5.3%

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Re: Laying Correct Scores Ok have finally updated the results tables to show fixed profits staking, hence the jump in profit b/fwd (in case anyone was wondering ;)) Typically a loss on the day so far of 5pts thanks to Chelsea not adding to their 2 early goals. But this was still better than the loss of 10pts which would have been achieved with fixed liability.

DateWagerScoreBetbrainBookieLay OddsDiff %Back OddsLiabilityResultW/LP/(L)Balance
250.00
03-NovArsenal v Man Utd1-17.00BlueSQ7.202.9%1.16162.002-2W9.50259.50
03-NovAston Villa v Derby3-011.00Centrebet11.000.0%1.100100.002-0W9.50269.00
03-NovEverton v Birmingham1-07.00Centrebet7.000.0%1.16760.003-1W9.50278.50
03-NovFulham v Reading1-17.00BlueSQ7.202.9%1.16162.003-1W9.50288.00
03-NovMiddlesbrough v Tottenham1-211.00Betfred11.000.0%1.100100.001-1W9.50297.50
03-NovNewcastle v Portsmouth1-17.50Centrebet7.40-1.3%1.15664.001-4W9.50307.00
03-NovWigan v Chelsea0-27.00Laddies7.202.9%1.16162.000-2L(62.00)245.00
03-NovBlackburn v Liverpool1-17.00BlueSQ7.202.9%1.16162.00 0.00245.00
Fixed Profit Bets Placed 104 Units Staked 7,536.00 Units Returned 7,781.00 Profit 245.00 Yield 3.25% Strike Rate 90.38% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 72.46
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Re: Laying Correct Scores

Every German match spot on. Well done mate. Pity Chelsea let you down for a full house so far today. Your system looks cracking and seems to be returning good profits. Have you ever thought of doing other UK leagues such as the SPL?
Cheers mate. :ok Yeah I was pleased with the German results. :D Shame about Chelsea, but the Blackburn result has just come in to give us a profit on the day. Funny you should mention it but I thought about the SPL today! I had a quick look though but the liquidity looked very poor.
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Re: Laying Correct Scores So Blackburn draw 0-0 to give us 7/8 on the day and a small profit of 4.50pts - better than a loss! :loon Fixed Profit Bets Placed 105 Units Staked 7,536.00 Units Returned 7,790.50 Profit 254.50 Yield 3.38% Strike Rate 90.48% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 71.77

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Re: Laying Correct Scores German results:

LeagueDateWagerScoreBetbrainBookieLay OddsDiff %Back OddsResultW/LLiabilityP/(L)Balance
Ger03-NovB Munich v Frankfurt2-111.00BlueSQ10.50-4.5%1.1050-0W95.009.509.50
Ger03-NovHamburg v H Berlin1-08.00Sportingbet8.405.0%1.1352-1W74.009.5019.00
Ger03-NovHannover v Dortmund1-17.50Canbet7.804.0%1.1472-1W68.009.5028.50
Ger03-NovLeverkusen v Bielefeld2-18.50Sportingbet9.005.9%1.1254-0W80.009.5038.00
Ger03-NovNurnberg v Stuttgart1-17.00Canbet7.202.9%1.1610-1W62.009.5047.50
Ger03-NovW Bremen v H Rostock2-19.00BlueSQ9.202.2%1.1221-0W82.009.5057.00
German Bets Placed 6 Units Staked 461.00 Units Returned 518.00 Profit 57.00 Yield 12.36% Strike Rate 100.00% Average Odds 1.13 Average Stake 76.83
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