Laying Correct Scores

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 2 for tonight:

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Ger	15-Feb	Schalke v Wolfsburg	2-1	8.50	Sportingbet	8.20	-3.5%	1.139			72.00	0.00	1,000.50
Hol	15-Feb	Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam	3-0	9.00	Stan James	9.80	8.9%	1.114			88.00	0.00	1,000.50

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

This is a very good system to use! But i prefer laying 0.5 under :)

That's nice. Any reason why?

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 2 more winners.

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Ger	15-Feb	Schalke v Wolfsburg	2-1	8.50	Sportingbet	8.20	-3.5%	1.139	1-2	W	72.00	9.50	1,010.00
Hol	15-Feb	Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam	3-0	9.00	Stan James	9.80	8.9%	1.114	6-2	W	88.00	9.50	1,019.50

Europe Bets Placed 531 Units Staked 38,650.00 Units Returned 39,669.50 Profit 1,019.50 Yield 2.64% Strike Rate 90.58% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 72.79

[Tonyvdb]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Hi great stuff here :clap I spent 2 hours reading through this thread and it looks really good. However, you say that the exact BF-odds that you lay, are not that important, as the strike rate is very high : but I figured this out : If you would have laid each of your 50 losing bets (in the 'Europe'-part) at only one point lower (let's say you laid at 7,6 instead of 7,8), you should have had 100 points extra in profit and a significantly higher yield ...

[Tonyvdb]

Re: Laying Correct Scores another question : When you have different possibilities to lay around the same BB-odd, for example 7 for 1-1, 8 for 1-0 and 9 for 0-0 ... which do you take? The one with the lowest liability (1-1) or the one with the lowest possibility (0-0)? gr T

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

Hi great stuff here :clap I spent 2 hours reading through this thread and it looks really good. However, you say that the exact BF-odds that you lay, are not that important, as the strike rate is very high : but I figured this out : If you would have laid each of your 50 losing bets (in the 'Europe'-part) at only one point lower (let's say you laid at 7,6 instead of 7,8), you should have had 100 points extra in profit and a significantly higher yield ...

Hi Tony, Glad you liked the thread. The point I was trying to make about the prices was that in an effort to save time it's not always necessary to lay at the very best price to get the returns cos the majority of the lays lose (win!). But obviously if I could have laid all the losers at lower prices, I would have more profit. However, the major stumbling block with this system is the time it takes to get all the bets on. And this is the reason I have stopped doing it.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

another question : When you have different possibilities to lay around the same BB-odd, for example 7 for 1-1, 8 for 1-0 and 9 for 0-0 ... which do you take? The one with the lowest liability (1-1) or the one with the lowest possibility (0-0)? gr T

As a rule I used to take the one with the lowest liability.

[Tonyvdb]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Didn't know you stopped the system :sad Well I'm not gonna continue it (time hè :tongue2 ) but I think it is a good system for people with patience : a very slowly growing bank, but definitely (?) a growing one. *Let us say you do 50 bets per week and you spend 5 minutes for each bet : 250 minutes = 4 hours approx. : very reasonable. *I play every game then at 9,5 EURO to win (10 minus commission) and liability between 55 to 90-100 max. *Following your last round-up, you have won 1,92 pts. per selection (profit 1019 pt. / 531 selections). *I narrow that down to as low as 1,5 pts. -> Each time I lay a correct score, following Hodgey's system, I win 1,5 EURO (the price of a beer in my favorite pub) per selection, on the long term that is. 200 selections a month (à 50 per week) is gonna win me 300 EURO each month in the long term. And I only need a start bank of maximum 1000 EURO. = a good system :clap Or do I look something here?

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Agree mate I still think it's a steady system which would reap nice rewards over the long term. :ok

*Let us say you do 50 bets per week and you spend 5 minutes for each bet : 250 minutes = 4 hours approx. : very reasonable.

The trouble is those 4 or 5 hours fall on Saturday's and Sunday's when everything else is going on. :(

[Tonyvdb]

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

Well I began with the system, with real money, sunday evening and so far 8 out of 8 won ... hooray :loon

Well done mate, nice one. :ok Any reason why you only picked those matches?

[Tonyvdb]

Re: Laying Correct Scores No, I just took what was available and had enough liquidity in the CS-market... Don't care if it is Argentina, Premier League or Liechtenstein 3rd division, as long as there are enough 'important' bookies having CS-odds on on Betbrain and as long as there is enough liquidity on BF. I also did not take the odd available (for 5 of the 8 games) but 'ordered' unmatched odds 0,2 points of what was available and they were all matched before KO :D I don't think you must in- or exclude this or that league, because odds will always follow the probability : for example, you say it's better not to take French games, but you will have a low liability there;on the very common 1-0 in France, you can lay as low as 6-ish for certain games ... I don't have the time to post my selections here before KO, but will maybe post my selections afterwards a few times ... not to brag, but just for information. Anyway, I had some beginner's luck here, 'cause 5 of my 8 selections were only 1 goal different of a loser ... only the German game was a high scoring one... Hope I will be 'courageous' enough to continue when I hit a losing streak, but that is my weak point : I tend to give up too fast, when things don't go as foreseen, I'll try to remember this saying : 'Winners never quit, quitters never win' ...

[richards1986]

Re: Laying Correct Scores This system is based on pure luck rather than educated selections, ie taking the lowest liability for the sake of it being the lowest? If you took time to amend your system slightly and add statistically analysis, you could check for worthwhile odds-prices, which should in turn reduce the amount of losses. However, I understand that this would be very time consuming. I have a similar system to this at the moment, but I incorporate statistical analysis although its not exhaustive by any means. I lay away teams with very poor away records against top teams with very good home records. Its simple and it works. It has made more than any other system on this website and in a shorter time. I like seeing other lay systems by people like yourself because i think its the more reliable and successful way of making money through gambling. I know of very few backing systems that have lasted the distance. With the right staking plan you could gradually increase your stakes, and therefore earnings, exponentially and become very rich. Hope the luck continues.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

This system is based on pure luck rather than educated selections, ie taking the lowest liability for the sake of it being the lowest?

Not correct. Read the thread again and you will see it was taking the closest match between Bookie price and Betfair price, not the lowest liability for the sake of it.

[raise_pheonix]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

2 late goals in the Villa match means just one loser today, but that's enough to get this off to a slight losing start.

Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
Sunderland v Tottenham	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	1-0	W	7.66	7.66
Bolton v Newcastle	1-0	8.00	Laddies	8.00	0.0%	1-3	W	6.79	14.45
Derby v Portsmouth	0-1	8.00	Laddies	8.20	2.5%	2-2	W	6.60	21.05
Everton v Wigan	1-0	7.00	Centrebet	7.20	2.9%	2-1	W	7.66	28.71
Middlesbrough v Blackburn	1-2	12.00	BlueSQ	11.50	-4.2%	1-2	L	(50.00)	(21.29)
West Ham v Man City	2-1	9.50	Betinternet	9.20	-3.2%	0-2	W	5.79	(15.50)
Aston Villa v Liverpool	0-1	8.00	Stan James	7.80	-2.5%	1-2	W	6.99	(8.51)

Summary Bets Placed 7 Units Staked 350.00 Units Returned 341.49 Profit (8.51) Yield -2.43% Strike Rate 85.71% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 50.00

Mate can u explain me better how this lay sistem gooes. I searched on google how lay bets are calculated but i couldn't find any explication that clears all these clouds i'm in to. I see for Example: Zenit St Petersburg v BATE Borisov - Correct Score On BETFAIR that a LAY bet on the 0-1 score(Bate Borisov wins 0-1) the Lay on this event has a 42 odds. Does this means that on a 5 euro bet:i win a 5*42=210 euro????? Can u tell me if this is true???? If not can u explain me how is the lay bet calculated???? How much i win in the case i presented UPPER How much i lose in the case i presented UPPER