laying larry Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi kanga, I would personally like to see all results as the time frame that we have been looking at is relatively short and would like to see the same pattern happening over a longer time frame before I would have any confidence to stat laying at any real volume at odd of around 6.0 Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 19, 2006 Author Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... I tend to agree, it's still early days yet for any of these systems to be absolutely sure of anything.There's the Unders system took a bit of a dive on the MW thread this weekend, still in profit but not as impressive as it was prior to the weekend.So maybe we should just paddle a little and keep monitoring!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Ok - I'll keep posting the win - lay & the cover figures so we can track the progress. Anybody have a formula to work out the arb of 2 selections that I can add to excel - I have a program that works it out - but it would be easier to let excel do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 20, 2006 Author Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... you can download a great set of calculators Andy from the following web site, which has an arb calculator for up to three outcomes:- http://www.bettingenius.com just go to the calculator download button and do the necessary.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Cheers Merlin - I was hoping to get away from doing it on an individual basis - If I have a formula I can plug it into excel and it will do most of the work - I think I've got it sorted now with help from slapdashes keen mind :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Only 3 matches in the midweek and 2 selections - DateLDV Vans TrophyTPBGMW21/02/06Carlisle v Macclesfield58%51%2-0 :hope DatePremiershipTPBGMW22/02/06Newcastle v Charlton53.1%60%2-1:hope DateLeague 1TPBGMW24/02/06Swansea v Huddersfield50.8%40%2-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Good luck with the 2 midweek selections Kanga. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Ok - I've been looking into "laying the away" method of backing the selections - and as previously reported the drawback is the amount of bank needed for a reasonable stake - not so bad for the midweek - but with 5-8 selections on a Saturday the bank needs to be quite large. There is an alternative called "double chance" which does the same thing only you are backing (1x) so the bank needed is only the stake amount. I've been using bestbetting to look into the best odds available - "double chance" seems to be only available at bet365, ladbrokes or sportingodds. Convienient - but how do you know which method is VALUE ? Obviously you pick the best odds of the 3 companies offering "double chance"above but to compare with laying on betfair - here's the calculation. Lets use the Carlisle v Macclesfield selection above as an example :- Best Odds are 1.62 - 4.0 - 6.35 (after commision) Lets call these odds A, B, C using an arb calculation on A & B to find (1x) A/(A+B) then B/(A+B) = 0.288 & 0.712 0.288 x B = 1.152 0.712 x A = 1.153 So the best odds for the 1x double chance is 1.15 sportingodds have the double chance 1x at 1.14 which is very good as the prices above are the best prices from different bookies. But what about laying on betfair the calculation is this 1+ (1/(C-1)) so in our example to lay macclesfield would be 1.187 There you go simple :loon I've noticed that sometimes the double chance oidds offered are very good :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. kanga i think betandwin.com do the double chance for some games. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. good result again tonight, bit of a close shave for the win though.:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Agree, very close but in the end a win's a win. Good luck with Newcastle tomorrow night as I reckon you may need it after their abject showing against Southampton in the FA Cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi LL, Yep last minute goal - I had layed Macclesfield and was fearing a goal the other way - but another for the system :ok David - yep I'm a bit concerned over Newcastle but I wouldn't have picked a number of the ones the system does so I've learnt to trust it - having said that I've layed Charlton so the draw is covered :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 21, 2006 Author Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... pity you could not have covered the lot.This match is by no means a clear cut affair.I reckon Charlton have a chance to pull off a sneaky win given the right conditions.I'm steering clear of this one!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. You may well be right Merlin old friend - but Charlton haven't the best away form on record - in their last 6 games away they've scored only 5 and let in 14 - Newcastle at home have scored 7 and conceeded 4. Personally I think MW's got it about right 2-1 or 1-1 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 22, 2006 Share Posted February 22, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well 2 close matches for the system but profitable again nonetheless (depending on how you backed them) DateLDV Vans TrophyTPBGMWResult21/02/06Carlisle v Macclesfield58%51%2-02-1 DatePremiershipTPBGMWResult22/02/06Newcastle v Charlton53.1%60%2-10-0 I'll report back with the weekends fixtures later :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 22, 2006 Share Posted February 22, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Kanga. Haven't been around for a while - been busy with other things. I see that the system is looking good and hopefully that will continue. In your post aboout calculating the best way to bet the selections (i.e double chance or lay) you have given a formula for working out which way is better. There is an easier (and free) way:clap Follow the link for a free set of calculators software (GTs Betting Calculator 3.01), including an odds inverter to give you the true 'back' odds for a given lay price. http://www.bettinggenius.com/ Mods: Hope I haven't broken any rules here by posting this link, it is a free tool after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 22, 2006 Share Posted February 22, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi DavidC, Thanks for the tip off I hadn't noticed the inverter :ok I've added the formula above into an excel spreadsheet I use for tracking all the selections. So far it works out that "laying the away" beats "double chance" by 3-5% on average - which is a fair amount by the end of the season. But occasionally the "double chance" works out the better bet. For the system to work we need around an 80% strike rate - so far it's averaging 93%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. I have noticed when utilising the Times Predictor for home wins you are actually taking odds under the level indicated by the Times Predictor as value!. Surely value analysis could increase the profitability of your stategy. Here is my idea for the foundations of a system based on the Predictor. Let TP = % indicated for home by Fink Tank Let BOS= 100/besr odds available(decimal mode) Let V= (TP/BOS-1) X 100 BOS = Best odds available V = % in favour of the backer. Where you decide to set V before striking a bet is difficult but I would suggest say 10% to give a satisfactory margin of error. Have we got any Chi-Square analysis on the TP? Will be back later after reviewing all the figures in the TP list with the V+ values calculated for all home games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Cavelloman, Thanks for you're input - That's some impressive figures & statistics you've got there - I certainly agree that value is the way to go with any system. The method that we're following on this thread uses a combination of 3 predictors to average out any inbuilt bias of just one. For example for selecting home wins only - TP on it's own is proving to be 56% succesful - whereas the combination is 65% succesful. For selecting "double chance" - TP is 85% the combination 93%. It typically throws out around 8 selections on a weekend - I would be very interested to see the value of the selections chosen if you are willing to have a look back in later. I hope to get them listed tonight :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Might be a good idea to combine with the Racing and Football Outlook computer "true odds" figures to give some balance to the Times figures. Will check up this evening and indicate those matches with an asterick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Results to date :- Home Win only Cover the Draw Lay the Away 65% Strike Rate 93% Strike Rate 93% Strike Rate 3.48 Points 11.48 Points 29.4 Points (after commission) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. That pretty good what is the yield. i think I will be factoring in TP into my figures. By the way anybody look at the returns from value or high % aways? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. "Lay the Away" yield is 12.3% "Win Only" yield is 6.11% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Some interesting selections in there this weekend Kanga, good luck with them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks David, I must post that TP can sometimes change nearer Saturday - I'm surprised Reading arent auto picked but they are only out by 0.1% and that may change - If it does I'll update and amend all selections. Also If you're laying these and the selections are too many - lay the ones by the 2 clear goals or more MW ratings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. If you put up the odds in decimal and multiply by % TP value will be indicated where >100% is achieved. TP will now entry my portfolio of methods pity they don't do foreign games. How long before the bookmakers start using the same methodology to price up games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Cavelloman, You can work out international games - on the main menu click - Game Simulator - it's not quite the same as the 7 day predictor as it doesnt include shots on goal but still a good indicator nonetheless :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Tried it. But looking at the results it is almost certainly based on the Poisson Dustribution in some form. In actual fact the result matrix produced is very similiar to my spreadsheet application. With the selections for Englsh soccer I imagine that they model the match results by Binomial Distriibution. How they assess they likely shots by each team is the difficult bit I would like to see flow chart/Psuedo code or methodology for this. Obviiously their application is linked to a database. With shots taken freely available in this country it would not be too difficult for the guys at Warwick Uni to assembe the necesary database information. If you refer to the lucky/unlucky teams I use the Binomial Distribution to model the % for the match. I assess that 1 goal is scored for about 8 shots at goal on average. I might e-mail the dept at the Uni to ask some questions about the fundamentals of of the methodology for match analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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