Racing chat -thurs 18th July

[Bang on]

7 hours ago, Bang on said:

Just put this one up early. Put it in my tracker after Saturday's disappointment with the comments - " well handicapped, apprentice jock couldn't get to settle and cost any chance, look for a pro jockey riding". Well today Clifford Lee takes over and it has been 'nibbled' in the betting.

4.55 Ham Sycamore Gap - 8/1 with 365 (who are paying 3 places) .. so have had a good EW bet. 

May be others later but this one up early.

2nd 9/1 

[azzybear]

butterfly wings 6.20

[yossa6133]

Few quid on the trifecta in the next at Worcester 1. Theonlywayiswessex 2. Lermoos Legend 3. Cawthorne Banker.

 

 

Very wrong.

Edited Thursday at 05:15 PM by yossa6133

[azzybear]

popa barns 6.37

[Villa Chris]

22 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

6.10 Worcester 

Kauto The King 27 7/1 ( my odds 4/1)

Lermoos  Legend 27 9/2 ( my odds 4/1

Theonlywayiswessex 23 5/2 ( my odds 5/1

I was going to have 1 point each on Kauto and Lermoos as they are both top rated and they were both 7/1 just a couple of hours ago but Lermoos has been backed into 9/2 so that just leaves Kauto . 2 points win .

 

22 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

8.05 Epsom 

Hodler 26 12/1 (my odds 7/1)

Little Boy Blue 24  15/2 (my odds 15/2)

Marlay Park 23 7/1 ( my odds 8/1)

Paws For Thought 23 10/1 (my odds 8/1) 

Top rated is the bet and also the biggest edge . 2 points win Hodler .

- 8 

[richard-westwood]

Dream of mischief finished 3rd and little boy 4th ...so the good value horses still ran well but my formula is very basic ....I really wanted to make sure the formula worked but now I know the maths is correct and working I can expand the formula to include rprs ...speed and a whole load of other stuff and hopefully that should give a lot more strength to the rating now ......I've reprogrammed it with all the new information so I look forward to the next few races ....still very promising ......just needs tweaking a touch 

Re rating the 805 with new settings gave top 4 overall ratings 

8 344

7 341

4 339

2 335

And they've finished 1st 2nd 4th so hopefully now I've tuned the form part the value part will follow 

Edited Thursday at 07:27 PM by richard-westwood

[harry_rag]

Blank day today which is reassuring. Would have been galling to find I’d been wasting my time slogging away at footy betting when this racing malarkey was like shelling peas! 

The spreadsheet is edging towards completion and I think it’s a useful tool if I am going to bet on the horses but it would be surprising if the path to profit was simply using 3 freely available sets of ratings from the RP website.

Having said that, the selections haven’t been too out of line with others’ ratings on here so it’s definitely a step forward from my usual pin sticking approach.

[richard-westwood]

4 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Blank day today which is reassuring. Would have been galling to find I’d been wasting my time slogging away at footy betting when this racing malarkey was like shelling peas! 

The spreadsheet is edging towards completion and I think it’s a useful tool if I am going to bet on the horses but it would be surprising if the path to profit was simply using 3 freely available sets of ratings from the RP website.

Having said that, the selections haven’t been too out of line with others’ ratings on here so it’s definitely a step forward from my usual pin sticking approach.

Yes exactly my thoughts ...the formula was too ...light .....so I've extended it to 8 ......I can open all the things I need in three diff windows and only takes 15 mins to rate a race so it isn't too bad either 

[Zilzalian]

On 7/18/2024 at 4:35 PM, harry_rag said:

I'll just take solace in the decision to call the top two rated "too short" with them finishing 2nd and 3rd. I'd rather lose taking a tilt at a decent price than backing a more obvious short priced selection.

You will never come up with any system that takes into account Jockey error/stupidity or handicap manipulation, the later being the biggest problem for systems/ratings people.