Villa Chris Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 2 minutes ago, yossa6133 said: *scrambles to put the rest of them in an acca* I’d have left the first race alone as 3 selections but the next 3 where there’s only been 1 selection per race they have come 2nd 1st 1st . A lot of selections to try and pick from but definitely on to something here. yossa6133 and justanotherpunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 1 minute ago, harry_rag said: Lucky he's got me here telling him how he might be able to do it better (obviously a far better use of my time than just backing his selections in the first place)! I just phoned work and said I'm not coming in on Monday, or ever again. justanotherpunter and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 The wheels are going to come off at some stage ! justanotherpunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Another 2nd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 And finally (so I can get it cleared at out of my head)... # Horse Odds MC Index Val Val2 1 YOU GOT TO ME 15 88 112.0 179.7 73.2 2 RUBIES ARE RED 11 88 112.0 131.8 53.7 3 YLANG YLANG 2.5 86 109.4 23.6 9.6 4 TREASURE 26 86 109.4 245.4 100.0 5 DANCE SEQUENCE 11 81 103.1 33.8 13.8 6 FOREST FAIRY 8.5 80 101.8 15.3 6.2 7 SEAWARD 51 79 100.5 27.0 11.0 I think it's tidier to convert the "value values" so that the best selection (on that metric) shows 100 and everything else a lower figure. Basically the "raw" figure/the max value and times 100. You Got to Me is 100 x (179.7/245.4) = 73.2 Not sure how concise that is but I think it's a slightly clearer explanation of each of the 3 values I calculate when doing the "master rating". MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 7 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: The wheels are going to come off at some stage ! What makes you think that? Obviously there will be bad runs but the evidence so far indicates you’re doing something very right and the horses are backing this up justanotherpunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 16 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: What makes you think that? Obviously there will be bad runs but the evidence so far indicates you’re doing something very right and the horses are backing this up Perhaps I'm just a natural pessimist ! The sample size is still fairly small, I need to go back and look at all the system selections from the start of the flat season in March and analyse the results. Villa Chris, harry_rag and justanotherpunter 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 14 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: What makes you think that? Obviously there will be bad runs but the evidence so far indicates you’re doing something very right and the horses are backing this up He's a pragmatist! Make hay while the sun shines but we're still at a very small sample stage given the odds involved. I'd say the results are too good to be sustainable in the long term but very encouraging in terms of the prospect of it proving profitable. (I'd be glad to be proved wrong though, about current returns not lasting.) There could be a seasonal element to it (which I think @Zilzalian might have mentioned) or it could just be period of unusual good fortune. For quite a while my rugby league system was making similar sorts of profit but there's been a serious levelling off. You'd have made money blindly backing every potential bet even without applying the system criteria so it just felt too good to be true. I think we need to see how things stand after 1000s of bets here. Somewhere along the line there's likely to be a period where it looks like we can't buy a winner and that needs to be ridden out in the belief that there's long term profit to be made. justanotherpunter, Villa Chris and MCLARKE 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Suppose it’s too easy to get carried away in this game . No better feeling when you’re getting winners right left and centre which I’ve rarely done , but boy this game really tests your metal when there’s a long losing run in which I’ve had plenty. justanotherpunter and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 10 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Perhaps I'm just a natural pessimist ! The sample size is still fairly small, I need to go back and look at all the system selections from the start of the flat season in March and analyse the results. If you can post up number of selections so far, average odds and harmonic odds then I can check from a statistical perspective how much of what's happened so far might be attributed to luck. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 1 hour ago, Villa Chris said: Suppose it’s too easy to get carried away in this game . No better feeling when you’re getting winners right left and centre which I’ve rarely done , but boy this game really tests your metal when there’s a long losing run in which I’ve had plenty. Yes, I don't get too despondent when on a losing run or too excited when on a run like this although it obviously does give me a great deal of pleasure. harry_rag, LEE-GRAYS and justanotherpunter 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: Yes, I don't get too despondent when on a losing run or too excited when on a run like this although it obviously does give me a great deal of pleasure. And me 😂👍 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 From my experience you don't usually get long losing runs with speed figures because they basically pick themselves its when outside elements creep in that create losing runs with betting on horses, things such as confidence loss, picking horses based on outside considerations like "this has won for me before" or you saw something that wasn't there in a horse, you risk the ground being ok, same with distance and the biggie HYPE/noise. even things like "i need the money" or even panic. So i wouldn't be too pessimistic if i was you because that in itself is an outside influence if you get my meaning. You have your data and you have your rules if it works you carry on if it doesn't then you re-evaluate its simple enough really if it aint broke don't fix it. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 I’m finding it very hard to put the time in at the minute . Work , family life , one or two other things that need my attention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 25 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said: And me 😂👍 A long losing run of thirty bobs is fine pal 😄🤣 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 14 Author Share Posted July 14 Started with a bang yesterday but went out with a whimper but overall a profit of 9 points for the day. Total now 62 winners from 274 runners, LSP 124.33. No racing today so I'll look at doing a bit of analysis on the data. justanotherpunter, Zilzalian and harry_rag 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Started with a bang yesterday but went out with a whimper but overall a profit of 9 points for the day. Total now 62 winners from 274 runners, LSP 124.33. No racing today so I'll look at doing a bit of analysis on the data. I have found that analysis of losers is more useful than analysis of winners, if you can find a few common denominators in the losers then they are very useful going forward and can help lowering the numbers of selections. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 18 hours ago, Villa Chris said: I’m finding it very hard to put the time in at the minute . Work , family life , one or two other things that need my attention. I lost my oldest son at the begging of May he was only 44 Chris. Believe me i would swap all your problems x 10 for that one so don't despair too much and concentrate positively on getting back up, I know it is easy to say and harder to do but you will get there, it's only a matter of how quickly can you get there.➡️⬆️ Villa Chris, MCLARKE, Torque and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 14 Author Share Posted July 14 Very sorry for your loss @Zilzalian You are right, we can become weighed down by all the issues we face, especially money, but money doesn't always help with poor health or bring back our loved ones. Villa Chris, Torque, Zilzalian and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 14 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: I lost my oldest son at the begging of May he was only 44 Chris. Believe me i would swap all your problems x 10 for that one so don't despair too much and concentrate positively on getting back up, I know it is easy to say and harder to do but you will get there, it's only a matter of how quickly can you get there.➡️⬆️ Bloody hell Zilz that’s an hard one to take. Hope you and your family are doing as well as you can in the circumstances. For what it’s worth I’m sorry and thank you 🙏 Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 9 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Very sorry for your loss @Zilzalian You are right, we can become weighed down by all the issues we face, especially money, but money doesn't always help with poor health or bring back our loved ones. Money can be replaced 👍 Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 3:30 Chantilly. speed figures for this 2yo race 1 Celandine 126 90 216 2 Shadow Army 119 84 203 3 Moving Force 119 70 189 4 Arabie 116 79 195 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 LEE-GRAYS, harry_rag, yossa6133 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 5:15 Windsor. Nursery H/cap. 1 The Dragon King 127 55 202 2 Siegen 121 76 197 3 Storm Call 118 66 184 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 30 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: 5:15 Windsor. Nursery H/cap. 1 The Dragon King 127 55 202 2 Siegen 121 76 197 3 Storm Call 118 66 184 Should The Dragon King be 182 ? I have Where's Claire 79 Siegen 76 Blinky 71 Storm Call 70 Mademoiselle 69 The Dragon King 67 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 (edited) 29 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Should The Dragon King be 182 ? I have Where's Claire 79 Siegen 76 Blinky 71 Storm Call 70 Mademoiselle 69 The Dragon King 67 You are correct to point that out because the second number is a typo and should so should read 127 85 212 totally bolloxed that up now. number should be 127 75 202 the adjustment of SR adds 10 points (85) but i don't use the adjustment. Edited July 15 by Zilzalian error MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 the dragon king 127 75 202 2 siegen 121 76 197 3 storm call 118 66 184 4 wheres claire 118 54 171 5 blinky 112 51 173 6 madamoiselle 111 43 154 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: 1 the dragon king 127 75 202 2 siegen 121 76 197 3 storm call 118 66 184 4 wheres claire 118 54 171 5 blinky 112 51 173 6 madamoiselle 111 43 154 siegen one might argue that the Hannon Horses are not running very well at the moment (confounding variable)? MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 The raw data for this year (those horses that have recorded a speed figure of 67 or more) 1,059 wins from 13,891 runs, LSP 59 points. AE 1.007. The AE is lower than the base period of 1.022 but at least it is still above 1. There has been a marked improvement over the last 3 weeks or so. The AE up to 23rd June was 0.996, since then it has been 1.027. The 5 additional criteria that I have applied has improved the results to 818 wins from 5,845 selections with a profit of 178 points. Unfortunately the AE has fallen to 1.002. The decision to reduce the number of selections by only selecting those with forecast odds of 6/1 to 7/1 results in 131 from 931 selections with a profit of 131 points. A reduction in profit but an increase in ROI to 14%. The AE is 1.06. So the end result is positive but it is the final stage that has resulted in the AE increasing above the target of 1.02. My concern is that my basic strategy has not recorded an AE above 1.02. Despite my success to date I still feel a bit nervous. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 12 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: There has been a marked improvement over the last 3 weeks or so. The AE up to 23rd June was 0.996, since then it has been 1.027. That feels like random short term variance even allowing for any possible seasonal element. 14 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: The decision to reduce the number of selections by only selecting those with forecast odds of 6/1 to 7/1 results in 131 from 931 selections with a profit of 131 points. A reduction in profit but an increase in ROI to 14%. The AE is 1.06. I can't help wondering if that's a relatively arbitrary filter in terms of why such a narrow band should be more profitable than anything longer or shorter and you're due to see a correction where the winners trend into a different price point. Just keep building up the data and enjoying the returns for as long as they're this good! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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