SPEED RATINGS

[MCLARKE]

I didn't expect to make a profit but I was a little surprised and a tad disappointed that the returns were worse than just betting randomly.

However I think that most punters make a bet based on the last run of the horse so good last runs are probably overbet.

There is still a lot more analysis to do (I have another 10 years of raw data to clean and analyse) and also I will look at the results of all the runs after the speed figure was obtained. The saying that form is temporary but class is permanent may well be relevant here.

[Trotter]

When I was really keen on the speed figures (which is probably about 10 years ago now) my idea of a good bet was a horse who's last 2 figures were higher than any figure of any the other's runners last two runs

So basically with 10 runners you had 20 figures ..... if a horse had the top two it was good bet !

At the time I probably had two or three years figures stored on the Racing Post 'My Ratings'  ....... given that these AW horses run frequently on the whole I'd have a long list of figures for many horses. I'd be looking for patterns ..... does it produce it's best figures on today's track or at today's trip, in todays race class and type, are it's figures improving over the last couple of runs etc

To be honest I've never done Turf Racing because I've always considered the variables of going, course configuration and the relatively large number of lightly raced runners, 2 and 3 year olds with not much form and hence not many ratings, to be difficulties ..... plus the sheer amount of racing to keep a eye on

[Zilzalian]

10 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Must admit this thread largely flies over my head in a way that is probably karma for all that spread based waffle I come out with but I’m not surprised you can’t make a profit by just using each horse’s last run; it’s far too little data.

Each horse’s best figure would be more relevant but not in isolation. Ideally you want a rating for each horse that is based on its aggregate form, a bit like ratings for a football team based on their last x games.

I think the idea of a few of you comparing ratings for the same good quality races is a good one.

Its even confusing me a bit to be honest but the proof will be in the pudding come ascot, i for example will be using pure speed figures with very little else taken into account i do this because my experience tells me that is what i must do. If your firing in more and more angles you can soon get away from the point of speed figures and end up back with form. I will be particularly interested in the combinations of the figures if @Trotter doesn't fancy it i will use Stop Watch of the RP as the 3rd man if he does play i will look at the different combinations of the 4 players. Either way it will be an interesting exercise. Personally i think the ground being good or GF will be key to accuracy.

[Trotter]

I think my problem with the Ascot thing is that I won't have any figures before racing

My 'modus operandi' is to rate the meeting when it's finished and store those ratings for future use

But I've only ever really done ratings for the AW and few runners at Royal Ascot will have run on the AW...... plus I haven't done any ratings at all for a while. So basically I won't have any ratings for any of the runners at Royal Ascot

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

11 hours ago, Trotter said:

I think my problem with the Ascot thing is that I won't have any figures before racing

My 'modus operandi' is to rate the meeting when it's finished and store those ratings for future use

But I've only ever really done ratings for the AW and few runners at Royal Ascot will have run on the AW...... plus I haven't done any ratings at all for a while. So basically I won't have any ratings for any of the runners at Royal Ascot

 

 

 

That's fair enough, when i thought of the Ascot angle i thought it only fair to give you the option of joining in as you are contributing to the thread.

[MCLARKE]

Still very much in the testing stage but my top rated horse today is Blind Beggar in the 3.43 at Bath.

It obtained its best speed figure last May at Leicester on going described as Soft (Heavy In Places) so today's heavy going shouldn't be an issue. That was over 6 furlongs but it has won over today's distance of 5 furlongs twice since then.

Last won off a rating of 84 so today's rating of 82 is not an issue.

Available at 12/1 so perhaps worth a small bet.

[MCLARKE]

Second top rated is Sarahs Verse in the 5.55 at Bath.

She obtained her best speed figure at this course on heavy going last October,

She has been running on the all weather since.

She last won on this card last year off a rating of 70 so looks well in on today's rating of 61.

Not surprisingly she is favourite at 9/4.

[Hotspur88]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Second top rated is Sarahs Verse in the 5.55 at Bath.

She obtained her best speed figure at this course on heavy going last October,

She has been running on the all weather since.

She last won on this card last year off a rating of 70 so looks well in on today's rating of 61.

Not surprisingly she is favourite at 9/4.

Hugh Taylor tip as well mate 👍🏼

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Still very much in the testing stage but my top rated horse today is Blind Beggar in the 3.43 at Bath.

It obtained its best speed figure last May at Leicester on going described as Soft (Heavy In Places) so today's heavy going shouldn't be an issue. That was over 6 furlongs but it has won over today's distance of 5 furlongs twice since then.

Last won off a rating of 84 so today's rating of 82 is not an issue.

Available at 12/1 so perhaps worth a small bet.

Just confirmed Blind Beggar, Democracy Dilemma, Desperate Hero 

[Hotspur88]

Blind Beggar you beautiful human beings 🔥🐎💷💷💷

Legends 👏🏼

[Trotter]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Still very much in the testing stage but my top rated horse today is Blind Beggar in the 3.43 at Bath.

It obtained its best speed figure last May at Leicester on going described as Soft (Heavy In Places) so today's heavy going shouldn't be an issue. That was over 6 furlongs but it has won over today's distance of 5 furlongs twice since then.

Last won off a rating of 84 so today's rating of 82 is not an issue.

Available at 12/1 so perhaps worth a small bet.

that's a good start for your speed rating punting !

👍👍

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Trotter said:

that's a good start for your speed rating punting !

Perhaps there is something to say for speed ratings afer all

I won't get too carried away, my first ever nap won at 33/1 but I've never finished better than fourth

[Hotspur88]

5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Second top rated is Sarahs Verse in the 5.55 at Bath.

She obtained her best speed figure at this course on heavy going last October,

She has been running on the all weather since.

She last won on this card last year off a rating of 70 so looks well in on today's rating of 61.

Not surprisingly she is favourite at 9/4.

Another winner, congratulations! Jumped on both your selections in here so thank you, it's been a bloody lovely day 🔥

[In Play Race Reader]

26 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Perhaps there is something to say for speed ratings afer all

I won't get too carried away, my first ever nap won at 33/1 but I've never finished better than fourth

You’ll be hooked to SR now pal 😁

[Zilzalian]

31 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Perhaps there is something to say for speed ratings afer all

I won't get too carried away, my first ever nap won at 33/1 but I've never finished better than fourth

Suggestion- Run the figures again on the same race but on Good or good to firm ground see what result you get.

[MCLARKE]

57 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Suggestion- Run the figures again on the same race but on Good or good to firm ground see what result you get.

In the 3.43 I would have Desparate Hero top rated with Blind Beggar second

In the 5.55 I would have had Danzart top rated, Sarah's verse would have been 6th

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, In Play Race Reader said:

You’ll be hooked to SR now pal

Indeed, if only I'd discovered it earlier !

[Hotspur88]

13 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Indeed, if only I'd discovered it earlier !

All of this is new to me but it seems you've found something with your recent form. 

Anyway, enough celebrating and get onto tomorrow's winners 👀🤣

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

Hugh Taylor tip as well mate

He used similar logic, I'll be happy if I am using a similar approach to him

He tipped it at 100/30, ended up 11/8

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, Trotter said:

that's a good start for your speed rating punting !

Also picked by 3 members in the naps table at 22/1

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, Trotter said:

that's a good start for your speed rating punting !

There were also 2 other winners at Bath, 10/11 Adaay In Devon and 10/1 Ice Max

[Hotspur88]

8 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

There were also 2 other winners at Bath, 10/11 Adaay In Devon and 10/1 Ice Max

Did you stick these up mate? I backed Adaay yesterday but didn't see Ice Max 😔

[MCLARKE]

1 minute ago, Hotspur88 said:

Did you stick these up mate? I backed Adaay yesterday but didn't see Ice Max

No, I'm only testing my speed ratings at the moment, I was just stating that they were very succesful today

[Zilzalian]

6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

In the 3.43 I would have Desparate Hero top rated with Blind Beggar second

In the 5.55 I would have had Danzart top rated, Sarah's verse would have been 6th

So we had similar results in the 3.43 I wouldn't have backed in the 5.55 to be honest because i avoid shorties but back to the 3.43, i hope you can more understand my reasoning in backing the forecasts to small stakes to get the maximum value from the work i put in. BTW Blind beggar came on top in both scenarios (goings) on my figures I was curious to see whether yours did also.

[Hotspur88]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

So we had similar results in the 3.43 I wouldn't have backed in the 5.55 to be honest because i avoid shorties but back to the 3.43, i hope you can more understand my reasoning in backing the forecasts to small stakes to get the maximum value from the work i put in. BTW Blind beggar came on top in both scenarios (goings) on my figures I was curious to see whether yours did also.

Do you post your selections on the site? Have you tracked a P/L? Very interested in this thread and the different systems you all have. Especially if your systems pull up the same horse as they did yesterday.

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

Do you post your selections on the site? Have you tracked a P/L? Very interested in this thread and the different systems you all have. Especially if your systems pull up the same horse as they did yesterday.

I post Speed figures now and again, the reason is simple enough, the bookies are watching, i suggested that to Micheal once and he didn't believe me, i think he might believe me now. As for P/L i posted for 1 month in 3 consecutive years 1 of which was profit for singles and pretty much evens for L15's the other two years, both were in profit on both counts. I left the daily grind behind from last November (see thread on November 17th  Time to Give up the Daily Grind.  So now just rate to suit when it suits.

[MCLARKE]

8 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

So we had similar results in the 3.43 I wouldn't have backed in the 5.55 to be honest because i avoid shorties but back to the 3.43, i hope you can more understand my reasoning in backing the forecasts to small stakes to get the maximum value from the work i put in. BTW Blind beggar came on top in both scenarios (goings) on my figures I was curious to see whether yours did also.

I still don't see any value in the forecast, I have looked at it with previous systems and came to the conclusion that I'd be better off having 2 win bets rather than the forecast.

Having said that you have changed my mind with lucky 15s and, probably, speed ratings, so who knows, I may end up backing forecasts as well.

[MCLARKE]

13 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I post Speed figures now and again, the reason is simple enough, the bookies are watching, i suggested that to Micheal once and he didn't believe me, i think he might believe me now. As for P/L i posted for 1 month in 3 consecutive years 1 of which was profit for singles and pretty much evens for L15's the other two years, both were in profit on both counts. I left the daily grind behind from last November (see thread on November 17th  Time to Give up the Daily Grind.  So now just rate to suit when it suits.

I'm still not as paranoid as @Zilzalian that the bookies are following us. If that was the case then I would have expected BETMGM to have shut me down by now as I have listed every bet made on the forum.

Having said all that my main bets are made on the exchanges so the more I bet the more commission they make.

[Zilzalian]

13 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I still don't see any value in the forecast, I have looked at it with previous systems and came to the conclusion that I'd be better off having 2 win bets rather than the forecast.

Having said that you have changed my mind with lucky 15s and, probably, speed ratings, so who knows, I may end up backing forecasts as well.

It only works with the bigger price winners Micheal, but it is an angle you can keep your eye on as you go forward.

[MCLARKE]

Still in the trial stage but here is thes top bet at today's turf meeting at Thirsk.

3.15 BURJ MALINKA - best speed figure obtained on good to firm going but also has the best speed rating in the race achieved on soft going (April last year). Top weight but last won off a rating of 62 compared to today's rating of 61. Current odds 7/2 favourite. Only slight question mark is that the race on soft going was over 5f rather than 6f.