Racing Chat - Saturday 16th December

[The Brigadier]

Cheltenham 1.15

The first of eight races covered by the ITV cameras this afternoon is this 2M 62 yard class 2 handicap chase. Dan Skelton’s Calico looks the one they all have to beat as a dual winning novice last season and probably better known as giving Jonbon a scare in the Kingmaker Novices’ Case at Warwick in February. He made a promising re-appearance when leading over the last in a valuable 2M handicap chase at the Paddy Power meeting only to be run down on the run in by the progressive Triple Trade who’s run well in defeat at Ascot since. A 4lb rise in the weights may not stop the seven year old from going one better here.

 

CALICO 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 1.50

We have a dozen smart chasers for the feature race on the Cheltenham card, the 2M 4 1/2F December Gold Cup. I have every respect for Olly Murphy’s Thunder Rock with his chase form tying in with recent winners but at a better price I prefer the Irish trained challenger So Scottish who appears to have been trained for the race by that astute handler Emmet Mullins for legendary owner J P McManus. He may have found the ground too heavy at Galway last time and in a first time tongue tie today may be too good for these. He can be backed each way with an additional place with JP’s retained Irish jockey Mark Walsh over to ride him.

 

SO SCOTTISH 1 point each way @ 11/2 BetVictor 1/5th 1234

 

Doncaster 2.05

The first of three races covered by the ITV cameras today at the Yorkshire track is this 2m 3F novices’ handicap chase. Yorkshire trainer Sue Smith is very much a ‘streaky’ trainer and having been apparently out of form for a while bounced back to form n the last fortnight when winning with three of her 6 runners (plus two of her losers finished second) and she can take this valuable prize with her six year old Cerendipity. he stepped forward for his chasing debut/re-appearance when winning a competitive five runner novices’ handicap chase at Wetherby 17 days ago by 1 3/4L from Ukantango. A 3lb rise may not be enough to halt his anticipated progress and he can follow up here for his in form trainer.

 

CERENDIPITY 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 2.25

A stamina sapping 3M 2F Premier Handicap Chase has attracted nine staying chasers with the weights headed by Dan Skelton’s Protektorat. The bet however lies with the novice trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies in Broadway Boy. Only a five year old and the type that Twiston-Davies has done well with in the past he could be well treated off of 146 on his handicap bow. He’s won two of three starts over fences including when a 20 length victor at the last meeting from stable mate Weveallbeencaught. He likes to get on with things so expect Sam Twiston-Davies to ride him positively from the front.

 

BROADWAY BOY 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

Doncaster 2.40

A decent sized field of twelve line up for this 2M 128 yard class 2 handicap hurdle. Several have chances including last season’s smart novice Rare Edition but its the locally trained Clear White Light who takes the eye. Unbeaten in two starts at the Yorkshire track, he made a winning re-appearance over course and distance when running out an easy winner of a race marred by half of the eight hurdles being omitted because of the low sun. He’s been raised 6lb for that victory but trainer Adrian Paul Keatley has recruited useful 7lb conditional jockey Dylan Johnston to offset that rise and he looks the one to be with.

 

CLEAR WHITE LIGHT 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Cheltenham 3.00

Up next is the 3M Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle run over 3M with a field of ten lining up. Nicky Henderson saddles an interesting runner in Shanagh Bob who impressed when landing the odds on his hurdles debut, but that was a very weak affair at Plumpton and at the likely prices I’m happy to look elsewhere. Kim Bailey’s Destroytheevidence is a progressive staying novice hurdler who followed up an easy Kempton novice hurdle win with an equally as cosy victory in a handicap at the same track the following month. He’s yet to race on a stiff track like this but he still appears each way.

 

DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Doncaster 3.15

Doncaster’s trio of races shown by the terrestrial cameras concludes with this eleven runner class 2 3M handicap chase. Laura Morgan’s Whistleinthedark is interesting but has stamina to prove so its the Dan Skelton runner Sail Away that appeals the most. He was a dual winner over this trip last season and made a satisfactory re-appearance when fifth of 7 (beaten 12 1/2L) at Newbury over a trip on the short side of 2M 4F a fortnight ago. That will have blown the cobwebs away and he can be competitive here in what amounts to an open race. He can be backed each way with an additional place.

 

SAIL AWAY 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

 

Cheltenham 3.35

The two day meeting concludes with a ten runner mares only handicap hurdle which has an open look about it. The pick is the Dan Skelton trained six year old Nurse Susan who was a smart novice back in season 2021/22 when winning her first two starts prior to a far from disgraced runner up to Love Envoi and ending that season with a creditable fourth of 19 in the mares novices’ hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival behind the same horse. She re-appeared following a 613 day break when soundly beaten on her fencing bow at Exeter in listed company in November and reverts back to hurdles in a handicap for a first time off of a realistic mark of 125. She’s an each way price and should run well here stepping up in trip for the first time.

 

NURSE SUSAN 1 point each way @ 6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123

 

 

[richard-westwood]

630 wolv 

The waiting game. 8.5 4/1 

Beauty choice. 8.0 8/1 

Brazen idol 7.7 

On paper ...the waiting game looks a decent bet ....ran into all sorts of trouble last time so his 8.5 could be upgraded no end ....that makes the 4/1 very good value ....brazen bolt has the look of a horse the hccapper has caught up with so the danger could be beauty choice 

Waiting game 10pt win 4/1 

Beauty choice 5pt saver 8/1 

Edited December 16, 2023 by richard-westwood

[black rabbit]

Furzig                                                    1 20 New/     1/40th of a pt ew     50/1

Howth                                                   1 20 New/     1/40th of a pt ew     14/1

Nayati                                                   2 40 Don/      1/40th of a pt ew     20/1

To Friendly                                           2 40 Don/      1/40th of a pt ew     28/1

Moon Dorace                                      3 00 Che /       1/40th of a pt ew    18/1       - 2nd

Genietoile                                            3 00 Che/        1/40 th of a pt ew   20/1      

Martila Divine                                     3 35 Che/        1/40th of a pt ew    28/1        - 2nd

Frero Banbou                                      1 50 Che/        1/40th of a pt ew   12/1 {WEDENSDAY}    - 3rd

 

 

 

P/L   + 173.75 PTS 

 

 

 

                           

Edited December 17, 2023 by black rabbit

[White Feather]

Six key stats from all the meetings to help you beat the bookies on Saturday

Cheltenham

Gavin Cromwell is enjoying an unbelievable season at Prestbury Park, operating at a 43 per cent strike-rate with six winners from just 14 runners.

The Irish trainer enjoyed a winner at the track yesterday and has a leading hope with Malina Girl in the 3m2f handicap chase (2.25). She was an easy winner at the November meeting last month, while Cromwell is also represented by outsider Railway Hurricane in the December Gold Cup (1.50).

 

Doncaster

Adrian Keatley has a 50 per cent strike-rate over jumps at this track in the last five seasons, and saddles a live chance on the card.

The Yorkshire-based trainer relies on Clear White Light in the 2m½f handicap hurdle (2.40). The son of Dubawi was an impressive winner over the course and distance this month, but has a 6lb higher mark to overcome.

 

Hereford

The in-form Jamie Snowden is operating at a 29 per cent strike-rate in the last fortnight and his sole runner of the day comes at this track.

Snowden saddles Spitfire Girl in the feature 3m1f mares' handicap chase (1.00), who must bounce back from disappointing runs on her last two starts.

 

Wolverhampton

Stuart Edmunds has a 50 per cent strike-rate at the track in the last five years, with three winners from six runners.

He is solely represented by Limelight in the second division of the 2m½f handicap (8.00). The three-year-old reverts to the Flat following some unsuccessful attempts over hurdles. 

Fairyhouse

Willie Mullins has been in typically good form, operating at a 33 per cent strike-rate in the last fortnight. He has another strong team at Ireland's sole meeting on Saturday.

The classy Hunters Yarn makes his fencing bow in the 2m½f beginners' chase (12.00), in which he is joined by stablemate Polo Lounge.

O'Moore Park is already a red-hot favourite to make a winning hurdling debut (2.15), while Mullins is doubly-represented by El Fabienne and Western Princess in the concluding 2m fillies' bumper (3.25).

 

Newcastle

Trainer Linda Perratt and jockey Tommie Jakes have a 60 per cent strike-rate when teaming up at this track, and the pair join forces for two runners.

The duo are represented by course-and-distance winner Henery Hawk in the second division of the 5f handicap (4.45), as well as two-time course winner Keep Me Stable in the mile handicap (5.15).

[White Feather]

Il Ridoto  1.50 Cheltenham 8/1 Betfred - 4 places

Castle Robin  3.15 Doncaster 11/1 Betfred - 4 places

2 x singles - each way double

Went back in and also took WH odds - Il Ridoto 17/2 - Castle Robin 18/1

Edited December 16, 2023 by White Feather
new odds

[calva decoy]

11.40 Doncaster - COFFICIANADO 14/1 eway bet365 . D.McCain leading seasonal trainer at course & bagged a 80/1 maiden winner here yesterday courtesy of The Waterboys .

12.30 Fairyhouse - EX PATRIOT 33/1 eway Sky Bet ( 4 places ) E.Holden has a small string but a trainer I look out for over in Ireland as have had some decent priced winners & lots of big priced placed efforts , horse ran in €57k Grade 3 35 days ago , was well beaten but big drop in grade to €11k race today but has top weight to burden hence extra place pick with Sky .

[Tedthewolf]

1.15 ch  1pt  e/w  FUNAMBULE SIVOLA 8/1 bog 3places. Only 7 go to post here but get 3 places make this horse a bet fotr me  on a good mark  Trainer and jock in red hot form looks overpriced to me! Placed 2.6 Returned

1,50 CH  2 for me in this  with 4 places bog/ 1pt e/w  IL RIDOTO 17/2 Ran a nice race lto only  6 year old so loads more to come imho i think Bryon Frost has a real  good chance on this horse Today. 0.5 e/w on top weight and a class horse in the race  FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES 11/1. Placed 2.7- Lost (5th)

2.15 CH No i haven't  lost the plot but i do think 0.25 e/w RAPPER  50/1 BOG 3 places has a squeak here the only CD winner in the field although that was a C2 event but  has an ok record here horse not right last 2 starts  if thats sorted and  Jock can keep the horse interested may just run a big race. There is if buts and maybe's about the horse  but at 50's it's a yes from  me! Lost (Ran ok 66/1 4th)

0.2pt LOSS

Edited December 16, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

[yossa6133]

City Chief 2.25 Cheltenham 11/2. Didn't think he'd be as big a price as this after his encouraging reappearance. Gets a very useful 5lb from the fav and looks certain to run his race.

1pt win City Cheif (11/2 bet365).

 

Disappointing, never seemed to be travelling that well.

 

P/L: +0.1

Edited December 16, 2023 by yossa6133

[fd1972uk]

Went with the right hills epic on fugitif, actually had il ridoto on a freebie, but better outcome.

1405 got a double that is waiting on cruz control,  but have used a unibet cb offer on findthetime.

[White Feather]

5 hours ago, White Feather said:

Il Ridoto  1.50 Cheltenham 8/1 Betfred - 4 places

Castle Robin  3.15 Doncaster 11/1 Betfred - 4 places

2 x singles - each way double

Went back in and also took WH odds - Il Ridoto 17/2 - Castle Robin 18/1

Ill Rodoto ran a cracker, here is hoping Castle Robin can at least get a place?

[calva decoy]

9 hours ago, calva decoy said:

11.40 Doncaster - COFFICIANADO 14/1 eway bet365 . D.McCain leading seasonal trainer at course & bagged a 80/1 maiden winner here yesterday courtesy of The Waterboys .

12.30 Fairyhouse - EX PATRIOT 33/1 eway Sky Bet ( 4 places ) E.Holden has a small string but a trainer I look out for over in Ireland as have had some decent priced winners & lots of big priced placed efforts , horse ran in €57k Grade 3 35 days ago , was well beaten but big drop in grade to €11k race today but has top weight to burden hence extra place pick with Sky .

The usual Saturday shocker with UK & Irish jumps racing statistically my least successful day of the week ( Weds & Thurs ) best so have put in my calendar for New Year ( no bets on UK & Irish jumps ) albeit , Doncaster & Hereford were once again a joke with it turning into a glorified bumper meeting ( again ) with punters & paying public being ripped off & they wonder why hardly any new owners are putting money into jumps racing !

[Sporting Sam]

Wolverhampton 1930

Prince

abu

the craft  master 

both win

[azzybear]

bear claws 8.00

[azzybear]

win win power 8.30 

[Sporting Sam]

Wolverhampton 2030

DIONBAKER

STOTY MAKER

Both win 

[black rabbit]

On 12/15/2023 at 9:50 PM, black rabbit said:

Furzig                                                    1 20 New/     1/40th of a pt ew     50/1

Howth                                                   1 20 New/     1/40th of a pt ew     14/1

Nayati                                                   2 40 Don/      1/40th of a pt ew     20/1

To Friendly                                           2 40 Don/      1/40th of a pt ew     28/1

Moon Dorace                                      3 00 Che /       1/40th of a pt ew    18/1       - 2nd

Genietoile                                            3 00 Che/        1/40 th of a pt ew   20/1      

Martila Divine                                     3 35 Che/        1/40th of a pt ew    28/1        - 2nd

Frero Banbou                                      1 50 Che/        1/40th of a pt ew   12/1 {WEDENSDAY}    - 3rd

 

 

 

P/L   + 173.75 PTS 

 

 

 

                           

3 x placed        for ew sheckels