Mr Vegas Grand Slam Of Darts

[Fader]

Here are the group lineups for another weekend of Darting action. The Grand Slam of Darts

Group A
Smith
Wade
Ratajski
Girvan

Group B
Clayton
Dobey
Rock
Van Peer

Group C
Humphries
DVD
Anderson
Lennon

Group D
Price
Searle
Van Veen
Rafferty

[Fader]

Group E
Wright
Chisnall
Bunting
Buntz

Group F
Noppert
Gilding
Dolan
Muramatsu

Group G
MVG
Cross
Kleermaker
Sherrock

Group H
Aspinall
Heta
Pietreczko
Greaves

[Fader]

The two ladies have lovely draws. One has MVG and Cross in the group whilst Beau has Aspinall, Heta and recent winner Pietreczko. Harsh.

[Fader]

I managed to get the winner of this last year. Michael Smith was 12/1 and is 12s once again this year. I'll break it down in the same way that I did last year. You can pick your winner and runner-up in each group and then get an idea of the draw and have yourself a quarter-final line-up. My idea of how things will go in the groups is as follows:

A) Smith / Wade
B) Dobey / Clayton (possibly Van Peer to sneak in)
C) Humphries / Anderson
D) Price / Van Veen
E) Wright / Chizzy
F) Noppert / Gilding
G) MVG / Cross
H) Aspinall / Pietreczko (possibly Heta to come 2nd)

Smith/Clayton v Dobey/Wade
Humphries/Van Veen v Price/Anderson
Wright/Gilding v Noppert/Chizzy
MVG/Pietreczko v Aspinall/Cross

As you can see, the bottom half is much better to be in than the top. Wright has a lovely draw to continue his good form. Here is what I'll be taking :

I was tempted with Gary Anderson but he was 18/1 and he has to beat Price, Humphries, Michael Smith and then potentially MVG. Is 18/1 value for that? I don't think so. So, I've taken Chizzy and Aspinall as my two main picks. Chizzy should get through the group OK and then face Noppert or Gilding. He'd then face Peter Wright. If he won that then he'd be up against at worst MVG, who he has done well with in the past. Aspinall is also in that bottom half.

Dobey and Pietreczko are the outside picks for me. Dobey has the stamina to produce it here and I think he'll beat Wade and potentially Smith or Clayton, too. I'm not sure he beats Price or Humphries though but at 33s I'm happy to go with that. Pietreczko is a player that we don't know if he can compete for this length of time but at 66/1 I'm happy to have him on side. If he can beat MVG and get up against Aspinall then I'll be happy

2pts e/w Chisnall to win GSOD 22/1 Paddypower
1.5pts e/w Aspinall to win GSOD 22/1 Paddypower
--------------------------------------------
1pt e/w Dobey to win GSOD 33/1 Paddypower
0.5pts e/w Pietreczko to win GSOD 66/1 Paddypower

[daveg]

The two players I see as the most likely winners of the Grand Slam are in the same quarter, and that’s Luke Humphries and Gerwyn Price. And I’m favouring the Welshman, mainly because of his record in Wolverhampton - Price has won the Grand Slam in three of the last five years. He warmed up for this event with a win in the penultimate Players Championship event of the year where he averaged just short of 99 across his seven matches. Price is available at 17/4 with SpreadEx, I’m not sure that’s value to be honest, but he’s in good form and has a terrific record at the Grand Slam so I’m going to have a dabble.

In the bottom half of the draw I was looking for someone at slightly bigger odds who could make an impression, I was tempted with Wright, Bunting and Noppert, but like Fader, have plumped for Dave Chisnall (22/1 PaddyPower/Betfair). Chisnall also comes here in good floor form having reached the final of the last two Players Championship events, winning the last of those. He also has some stage form to back that up, having won on the Euro Tour at the end of September. I’ve lost count the number of times I’ve backed Chisnall for a major due to his form coming into the event, only for him to be dispatched early … maybe this is the time Chizzy pays me back.

[Fader]

3 minutes ago, daveg said:

The two players I see as the most likely winners of the Grand Slam are in the same quarter, and that’s Luke Humphries and Gerwyn Price. And I’m favouring the Welshman, mainly because of his record in Wolverhampton - Price has won the Grand Slam in three of the last five years. He warmed up for this event with a win in the penultimate Players Championship event of the year where he averaged just short of 99 across his seven matches. Price is available at 17/4 with SpreadEx, I’m not sure that’s value to be honest, but he’s in good form and has a terrific record at the Grand Slam so I’m going to have a dabble.

In the bottom half of the draw I was looking for someone at slightly bigger odds who could make an impression, I was tempted with Wright, Bunting and Noppert, but like Fader, have plumped for Dave Chisnall (22/1 PaddyPower/Betfair). Chisnall also comes here in good floor form having reached the final of the last two Players Championship events, winning the last of those. He also has some stage form to back that up, having won on the Euro Tour at the end of September. I’ve lost count the number of times I’ve backed Chisnall for a major due to his form coming into the event, only for him to be dispatched early … maybe this is the time Chizzy pays me back.

I think you're probably right with Price and Humphries. I think either of those probably beats Michael Smith and so the winner of that match should make the final. You'd have to say that over a longer format, that has to be Price in most cases. The bottom half is probably where the 'value' is. Good luck on your bets

[ThunderDan9]

Nothing really screams at me as an outright winner... I totally agree with daveg that probably Price or Humphries are going to win it... and even though Michael Smith is not in good form, he is still a danger in the top half of the draw, Anderson, Dobey and Wade are all there too...

So maybe we should try someone from the seemingly less stacked bottom half. Chizzy is my favorite player, and I kind agree with Fader's pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he even goes out in the group phase... it's all mental, can he bring that ET&PC form to a major or does he crumble again? Maybe the group phase format might help him actually, as if he survives he already has three games under his belt...

Aspinall is a strange one this year... he has terrible form in lesser events, but raises his game in the majors, big time. He is for sure a contender, but I don't trust him. And he is in a very tricky group, maybe the trickiest one.

So in the end I went with Chizzy and then Noppert at 40. I think Noppert has a nice draw, he should easily qualify from his group and then he faces one of Wright/Chizzy/Bunting if I'm not mistaken... I liked his game in the EC, and he might have a chance in a bottom half that seems to be quite open.

 

[Fader]

match tips tomorrow :

My only single bet that I'm looking at right now is Anderson to beat DVD and hit most 180s. The last time I saw DVD, he looked injured to me and he wasn't hitting any 180s at all. I think Anderson would win this match even if DVD was fine but I'm happy to take the 15/8 on him winning with the 180 count too. These first matches are first to 5s in these group matches so can't go too mad in what could be a bit of a lottery. I'm quite tempted by Sherrock against MVG lol

2pts Anderson to beat DVD and hit most 180s 15/8 Bet365
-----------------------------------------------------------
1pt afternoon accy - Pietreczko, Van Veen, Dobey, Noppert 7.5/1 Bet365
1pt Evening accy - Wade, Chizzy, Anderson, Humphries 5/1 Paddypower

[daveg]

I’m off to the darts today - so probably won’t remember if these win or lose, but here’s what I’m going for:

Afternoon session Pietreczko +1.5 legs, Dobey to win & Greaves +3.5 legs which pays just under 7/2

Evening session Cross, Humphries and Anderson all to win and hit the most 180s which pays just over 8/1

As Fader said van Duijvenbode is really struggling at the moment, I think he had a shoulder injury the last time we saw him. If he still has that injury I can can see him having a real tough time against Anderson, so backing Gary -3.5 on the handicap at 9/2 as well.

Good luck all.

[Fader]

2 hours ago, daveg said:

I’m off to the darts today - so probably won’t remember if these win or lose, but here’s what I’m going for:

Afternoon session Pietreczko +1.5 legs, Dobey to win & Greaves +3.5 legs which pays just under 7/2

Evening session Cross, Humphries and Anderson all to win and hit the most 180s which pays just over 8/1

As Fader said van Duijvenbode is really struggling at the moment, I think he had a shoulder injury the last time we saw him. If he still has that injury I can can see him having a real tough time against Anderson, so backing Gary -3.5 on the handicap at 9/2 as well.

Good luck all.

Oh lovely. Have a good day mate. 
good luck with those. 
maybe we should get a forum table for the worlds eh  

[Fader]

That first game answers my questions on pie. Threw that one away. 

[Fader]

I’ve gone for a treble today :

aspinall
noppert
clayton 

4/1 Paddypower 

 

[ThunderDan9]

I like Lennon to win against DVD at 2,55... DVD looked terrible yesterday, and had his (nowadays) usual checkout woes... at least Lennon was up 2-0 against Humphries before losing 2-5, but there is a gulf between Humphries and present day DVD.

[daveg]

I’m on Ratajski -1.5, Humphries -1.5 and Dobey to win tonight, the treble pays just over 7/2.

Van Duijvenbode’s shoulder injury is clearly still an issue, so tempted to back Humphries to win 5-0 tonight, priced at 10/1 with Bet365.

[daveg]

12 hours ago, daveg said:

I’m on Ratajski -1.5, Humphries -1.5 and Dobey to win tonight, the treble pays just over 7/2.

Van Duijvenbode’s shoulder injury is clearly still an issue, so tempted to back Humphries to win 5-0 tonight, priced at 10/1 with Bet365.

Frustratingly, Humphries missed two darts to win 5-0 - but at least the 7/2 shot came in.

[ThunderDan9]

39 minutes ago, daveg said:

Frustratingly, Humphries missed two darts to win 5-0 - but at least the 7/2 shot came in.

Great pick, with the acca, it came in surprisingly easy! And I was watching the Humphries match, I was so sure of the 5-0, he was so close... DVD really needs some rest or therapy on his shoulder.

As for tonight... can Greaves once again win? Her oods look a bit too high to me after those two rounds. And poor Chizzy already eliminated (while Buntz (!) already qualified)...  With the pressure off, Chizzy should win on paper, but who knows in a meaningless match... at least Buntz has the motivation to win the group... so the odds don't seem right to me.

Edited November 14, 2023 by ThunderDan9

[Fader]

1 hour ago, daveg said:

Frustratingly, Humphries missed two darts to win 5-0 - but at least the 7/2 shot came in.

It's funny, I took 5-0 too as it was boosted but you just knew he'd screw it up. Unlucky on that one.

[Fader]

Glad to see Dobey sneak in after beating Clayton. He hasn't played very well but he now has every chance of beating Wade & Rock/Ratajksi and potentially setting up a quarter-final with Humphries/Price/Anderson. Unbelievable, the averages of Price this week. 95, 110 & 112.

Highly disappointed with Chizzy. However, it was always going to be potential to win it or go out in the group stages. Much like the likes of Peter Wright.

It's the bottom half of the draw tonight to decide the final 16. Interesting matches such as Beau and Heta. Can you imagine how big it would be for Beau to make the last 16? Heta is the kind of player who misses doubles at key times in my opinion but I also think that Beau will have nerves. I can see that being a right slog fest.

Wright v Bunting is a huge match for both with the winner going through. Wright has won both matches that they've played in 2023.

On the whole, there isn't much that I like about tonight. I can't touch matches where there is nothing to play for. If Kleermaker needed a win then I would have been tempted by him. Also, if Cross was played to a lower standard, perhaps Id be tempted with Sherrock.

What's peoples thoughts?

[Fader]

I've found one bet for tonight. I mean, I've gone with a couple of trebles but in terms of picking out a single bet, I think Sherrock to hit more 180s than Rob Cross is a good pick tonight.

Sherrock got 3 180s against MVG and then 2 in the 5-4 win over Kleermaker. Cross got 1 against Kleermaker (which he also won 5-4) and 1 against MVG.

So we're talking 5 180s for Sherrock in 15 legs and 2 180s for Cross in 18 legs.

2.5pts Sherrock most 180s  (vs Cross) 21/10 Paddypower

[daveg]

For me the Heta v Greaves match revolves around how well the Australian handles the crowd; does he handle it really well like Aspinall, or does he handle it really badly like Pietreczko. In reality it will probably be somewhere between the two, but I do think Greaves will make a good fist of it and I’ll take her on the handicap.

I’m also going to take Bunting to beat Wright - the Bullet has been more consistent so far, and I think Wright said he wasn’t too bothered about getting knocked out as that would give him more time to prepare for the Worlds.

I don’t like betting on the dead rubbers either, but on a night where little appeals I think I’ll add in Aspinall to beat Pietreczko. The German took on the Wolverhampton crowd on Sunday … and lost. He may well get similar treatment tonight, leaving Aspinall to take advantage.

Treble on Aspinall win, Bunting win and Greaves +2.5 pays just under 4/1 with Bet365.

[Fader]

would agree on the Beau and Aspinall picks for sure. I'm not sure on Bunting but at  4/1 looks value. Good luck mate

[Fader]

I'm going with a 4-fold also. The crowd will be on the ladies' side as usual and as mentioned, I'm not sure about Heta's mental side and his strength. Unlike Aspinall. As above, I think Sherrock looks like a good shot for most 180s and the other 2 are pretty clear picks.

Beau +1.5 handicap / Noppert / Aspinall / Sherrock most 180s 14/1 Paddypower

[Torque]

I'm taking a boosted acca with 365, which is Chisnall, Aspinall, MVG and Gilding. Pays out at 3.74. I'm not sure if there's any juice in it, but having read what you guys have put up I don't mind taking it for an interest if nothing else. Good luck all.

[Fader]

Aspinall is so frustrating to back. Absolutely horrific

[Torque]

That was dross. Horrendous average and still nearly won. Anything even slighter better and he wins at a canter.

[Fader]

Just now, Torque said:

That was dross. Horrendous average and still nearly won. Anything even slighter better and he wins at a canter.

It's why I should have left a dead rubber alone. Nothing to play for and it showed. Stunk the place out

[Torque]

4 minutes ago, Fader said:

It's why I should have left a dead rubber alone. Nothing to play for and it showed. Stunk the place out

Something should be done about the format. There shouldn't be such a thing as a dead rubber.

[daveg]

Yep - absolutely woeful. Pietreczko wasn’t even trying, and still beat him.

[Fader]

4 minutes ago, Torque said:

Something should be done about the format. There shouldn't be such a thing as a dead rubber.

horrible to bet on, the final group games.

[daveg]

Aspinall let my treble down last night, but I’m going with another one tonight as the last 16 action gets underway.

Josh Rock is being touted as a potential winner of this event, but I’m yet to be convinced as he really hasn’t been tested yet. The players he has beaten have averaged 86, 83 and 85 against him and I think Ratajski will give him a much tougher game than he’s had so far in this tournament.

I’m finding it hard to pick a winner in the Dobey v Wade match. We haven’t seen the best of Dobey in this tournament yet, I’m expecting him to improve over this longer format, and taking him to score at least 5 180s.

Luke Humphries has registered three ton-plus averages so far, and I don’t see his level dropping too far in this match. He’s a prolific 180 hitter, so I’m adding Humphries to win and hit the most 180s to my treble.

As for Price v Anderson - I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the fireworks 😁

 

Ratajski +2.5 legs, Dobey 4.5+ 180s & Humphries win and most 180s pays 4.23 at Bet365.

Edited November 15, 2023 by daveg