RACING CHAT WEDNESDAY 1st NOVEMBER

[black rabbit]

Storm Steps                                                                 5 35 Dun/                             1/40th of a pt ew    28/1

Watchya                                                                       6 45 Kem/                             1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

[Sporting Sam]

I’m glad October is over!

my endless pursuit of winners is over.

WATCHYA

Kempton park

1845

I’m after winners as always but as with my recent picks I’m using the physics more and more. Some nice winners at Newcastle the last two nights along with decent forecast on the first night.

Sydney Bay won  again on second run for new yard and still has a ton in hand.

Aberama gold form popped up last night through Tim Easterby’s  Snash who was completing a Yorkshire four timer over catterick and Newcastle.
It comes up again tonight at kempton as watchya tipped up by black rabbit runs he goes off a low mark he drops in class and on the physics side should go well under traverse law ( free energy)  which he is guaranteed to be receiving and Neil callan booked and first time headgear dispensed with. The only issue about this horse unknown is wether the earplugs will be used tonight I’m guessing as it’s not a big race in a huge field they won’t be needed tonight . I’m backing  him each way as there’s a long way before all the factors are known as I’ve said before. It’s  good to get an early price, but much about how the race cannot be known until five or ten minutes before the off. Weather and track conditions and the field and markets as well as jockey changes all come into play in the final half hour and any withdrawals can and will affect horses behaviour and performance (even before they enter the stalls) That’s especially so at Dundalk where the whole shape of the race can be influenced by the reserves who are all factored into the race by the weights and the draw ( wether they run or not).  Final word on Dundalk check the results to bear this out. Good luck with your betting this November, with the breeders cup the Melbourne  cup and big jumps meetings in Britain and Ireland  it is going to be one hellaver ride.
 

[azzybear]

etatique 10.55 france

[azzybear]

kaleo Jim 11.55 france

[azzybear]

concerto 11.25 France 

[richard-westwood]

615 kemp 

Caragio 8.2 5/1 

Follow your heart. 8.0 17/2 

Zero carbon.  7.6 

Soar above  7.5 

5pt wins top 2 1pt rev forecast 

 

[Sporting Sam]

Mombetsu 1140

holyhock

win

Traminor

reverse forecast

holyhock has to try and reverse a defeat from traminor when they met but has won four times recently 

*
HAPPY VALLEY

1240

free foal 🐎 

each way

fearless fire 🔥 

win

both down to winning marks 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Bang on]

I haven't been posting much as I have been working on something and 'fine tuning'. It all seems logical and I have been backing the selections with hard cash since the beginning of October so still early days. They come in 2 categories but you don't need to know that, all I can say is that both have been profitable, with one giving slightly better prices but both have a similar strike rate. They provide bets most days but not always everyday (which is what I was looking for). ALL BETS are WIN only bets.

Method A - October 19 wins from 42 bets. A profit of +15.63pts.  Method B - October 20 wins from 45 bets. A profit of +62.33pts   ** B.O.G. ** results but still profitable at S.P. All profits at 1pt level stakes.... I have though now implemented a staking plan (slight increases) so that should increase returns. 

Losing run = 6   Winning run = 3 ( x 3 times )

November

A   - 7.15 Kemp - Scintillante - 5/2 bet365

--------------------------------

B  - 3.15 Fake - Luna Dora - 3/1

       4.15 Fake - Sergeant Wilson - 2/1

There will be another selection this evening on ( B ) but for staking purposes awaiting results from 1st 2 selections. Fingers x'd for another winning month.

 

[Trotter]

Ling 3.08 - Angle Land - win at 6/1 wm hill

My overnight selection is a non runner but I did think Angle Land was the best of the rest even though it is the outsider of the field

CD winner, drops in class, 4lb below last winning mark

4 wins on the AW but last two runs have been on Heavy ground so return to a better surface should suit particularly dropping in class

I don't think there's much between the remaining runners, so why not pick the one at the best odds providing there's no obvious factor which rules him out !

[Bang on]

Fakenham abandoned - so ( B ) bets now Non Runners.

This evenings selection.

( B )  - 8.15 Kemp - Milvus - 9/2

EDITED to ADD that all selections are 1pt bets unless stated otherwise.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Bang on

[Sporting Sam]

Lingfield 1608

STAR OF EPSOM

Win

course specialist three times a winner here.

Bhubezi

each way

eyeCatcher at Brighton and step up in trip a no brained now totally unexposed 

[Sporting Sam]

Dundalk 1635
First visit and here magic can happen especially with the non running reserves factored into both the running the draw and the weights.
Trishuli River
Win
Done enough with doing anything to suggest a win is imminent after taking to the all weather like a duck to water after being unable to actually run hitherto in big field races on turf
HAVANA NOTION 
Win
Can clean up if the favourite fluffs lines
Static charge
Each way
draw data runner and after several runs potentially lightly placed to get in on things here.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Dundalk 1735

humanitarian-

believe in science 

both each way 

[MCLARKE]

 

I haven't had the time to update my systems so I'll just stick to a 5 year old system, as November and December are the 2 best months.

A profit has been made over the last 8 years by backing the selections blind (to proportional stakes) with a profit made in each of the last 4 years. The AE is 1.05.

I have added some criteria to reduce the number of selections, the main ones being

Forecast odds < 50/1

Career starts < 18

Not top weight

In the last 8 years there have been 2,137 winners from 16,043 winners with a profit of 1,410 points at BSP. The AE is 1.10.

2 this evening

 

[Sporting Sam]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

 

I haven't had the time to update my systems so I'll just stick to a 5 year old system, as November and December are the 2 best months.

A profit has been made over the last 8 years by backing the selections blind (to proportional stakes) with a profit made in each of the last 4 years. The AE is 1.05.

I have added some criteria to reduce the number of selections, the main ones being

Forecast odds < 50/1

Career starts < 18

Not top weight

In the last 8 years there have been 2,137 winners from 16,043 runners with a profit of 1,410 points at BSP. The AE is 1.10.

2 this evening

 

Good luck with these this evening, intruiging statistics. 👍 

[Sporting Sam]

1845 kempton

already selected 

watchya

each way 

several non runners now leading to

William Twee

 

win

murphys lore applies here and this lightly raced speedster was a likely leading light last season fluffed lines at ascot but very much one to keep on the right side of and worth chancing even though a run in the back will see usual progression may be ready now.

BALDERMO

Each way

this yard really quiet after breakthrough ascot and summer of higher class wins through big Ev

[Sporting Sam]

Kempton 1915

 

Scintillante

win

balhambar

win

pourmeadrink

eachvway

[Sporting Sam]

Kempton

1945

AGAPANTHER

WIn  
Halfnohoobs

each way

REVERBERATION

Each way

[Sporting Sam]

Magicinthemaking

clownsman

 

both win

clownsman  is 0/12 but has to win eventually given the sliding ratings.

Peachcey carnaham

Each way 

 

[Sporting Sam]

Kempyon 8:15

late late jockey chsnge

bama lama

win

[Bang on]

8 hours ago, Bang on said:

I haven't been posting much as I have been working on something and 'fine tuning'. It all seems logical and I have been backing the selections with hard cash since the beginning of October so still early days. They come in 2 categories but you don't need to know that, all I can say is that both have been profitable, with one giving slightly better prices but both have a similar strike rate. They provide bets most days but not always everyday (which is what I was looking for). ALL BETS are WIN only bets.

Method A - October 19 wins from 42 bets. A profit of +15.63pts.  Method B - October 20 wins from 45 bets. A profit of +62.33pts   ** B.O.G. ** results but still profitable at S.P. All profits at 1pt level stakes.... I have though now implemented a staking plan (slight increases) so that should increase returns. 

Losing run = 6   Winning run = 3 ( x 3 times )

November

A   - 7.15 Kemp - Scintillante - 5/2 bet365

--------------------------------

B  - 3.15 Fake - Luna Dora - 3/1

       4.15 Fake - Sergeant Wilson - 2/1

There will be another selection this evening on ( B ) but for staking purposes awaiting results from 1st 2 selections. Fingers x'd for another winning month.

 

A)  - Scintillante - WON

B)  -  Non Runners - Fake abandoned

[Bang on]

6 hours ago, Bang on said:

Fakenham abandoned - so ( B ) bets now Non Runners.

This evenings selection.

( B )  - 8.15 Kemp - Milvus - 9/2

EDITED to ADD that all selections are 1pt bets unless stated otherwise.

B)  - Milvus - lost 3rd