Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October

[The Brigadier]

 

Cheltenham 1.15

The first of four ITV races is this 2M class 2 handicap chase where the front running Haddex Des Obeaux looks the the one they all have to beat but has been priced accordingly and it maybe worth looking for some each way value with the locally trained Before Midnight. The oldest in the field at ten years of age he won this race for Sam Thomas two years ago when making all by 6L and can race today off of a mark a pound lower plus another 7lb off for the conditional jockey Ben Sutton who’s won seven of his 52 rides in his short career so far. He teed up for this with a fourth in a seniors handicap hurdle a fortnight ago and this well handicapped gelding trained by Fergal O’Brien can be competitive here.

 

BEFORE MIDNIGHT 1 point each way @ 8/1 Boylesports 1/5th 1234

 

Cheltenham 1.50

This class 2 Masterson Holdings hurdle, run over 2M 87 yards looks a good opportunity for the Paul Nicholls trained Blueking D’Ooux who was turned inside out by a wind operation last season winning a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot at 50/1 (the biggest priced winner ever for Nicholls) and proved that was no fluke by running well at Aintree in a similarly valuable handicap hurdle going down by 3 3/4L to Punctuation. He’s the highest rated horse in the field by 9lb from his main danger in the Gary Moore trained Spirit D’Aunou but Blueking D’Oroux is a confident selection.

 

BLUEKING D’OROUX 3 points win @ 6/4 BetVictor

 

Doncaster 2.10

The feature race of the day on the level is the Kameko Futurity Trophy, the final Group one of the season for the two year olds and this looks a shoot out between the unbeaten Diego Velazquez of Aidan O’Brien’s and the Charlie Appleby trained Ancient Wisdom. Official ratings have the latter a 5lb better horse and as he’s shown he handles soft ground well having impressed when running away with the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket a fortnight ago is the pick with William Buick in the saddle. Appleby is having a bit of a purple patch at the moment winning with ten of his last 18 runners at a staggering 56%.

 

ANCIENT WISDOM 2 points win @ 7/4 bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.25

A decent field of fourteen line up for this class 2 3M 1F handicap chase which has an open look about it. Neil Mulholland’s eight year old Lord Accord took this last season having teed up for the race with a spin over hurdles and his trainer is taking the same route this season having run him at Warwick in a handicap hurdle at Warwick 23 days ago. He should be spot on for this now and off of just a one pound higher handicap mark can confirm that form with the runner up The Wolf who is rather inconsistent for my liking.

 

LORD ACCORD 1 point each way @ 6/1 Unibet 1/5th 1234

 

Doncaster 2.45

Nine have declared for this 6F listed race for two year olds which may go to the form horse Ballymount Boy. Adrian Paul Keatley’s Wathnan Racing owned Camacho colt is dropping back to 6F which is the trip at which he ran his best race this summer when chasing home the smart Vandeek in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes on very soft ground and a reproduction of that effort should see him home here. He was below par in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp last time although he may have found the ground too fast that day. James Doyle takes over from Jason Hart and on ground he handles looks the pick.

 

BALLYMOUNT BOY 2 points win @ 10/3 888sport

 

Cheltenham 3.00

A bumper maximum field of twenty go to post for this 3M Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle qualifier which as one would expect has a very open look about it. There are four Irish trained challengers including Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott charges but it’s the Noel Meade trained Bugs Moran that catches the eye. He’s been runner up in a listed handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival following a 464 day layoff and filled the same position at Listowel this autumn under Jack Kennedy and should appreciate this step up to 3M from 2M 4F as a previous winner of the 3m EBF novice handicap hurdle at the Fairyhouse festival in 2022. At a big price don’t under estimate Syd Hosie’s handicap debutant Rock My Way who had good early season form here last year and will stay well. He’s worth a small each way saver.

 

BUGS MORAN 1 point each way @ 7/1 1/5th 12345

ROCK MY WAY 1/2point each way @ 33/1 1/5th 12345

 

Doncaster 3.20

Five of the eleven runners all met at Catterick over the same trip and ground a week ago with Vintage Clarets coming out the best of the quintet and should go close agin although its the runner up that day Glorious Angel, owned by Nick Bradley Racing that maybe able to turn the tables on the winner on one pound better terms. He goes well on testing ground and in a tight knit contest where stakes should be kept to a minimum is worth an each way bet in a race that is the less appealing of all nine covered by the ITV cameras today.

 

GLORIOUS ANGEL 1/2 point each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123

 

[Darran]

The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.

 

Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4^th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.

 

Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.

 

Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7^th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.

 

Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.

 

Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9^th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3^rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9^th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.

 

My Oberon - 3^rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.

 

Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.

 

Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.

 

Duais - 3^rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7^th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.

 

Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2^nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7^th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2^nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2^nd in that race and he was a never involved 7^th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form. 

 

Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.

 

King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3^rd start, but was only 9^th in the Winx Stakes and 7^th in the Golden Rose. Was 4^th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.

 

Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9^th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.

 

Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill

Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365

Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365

 

NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places

[black rabbit]

God's Window                                                   2 10 Don/             1/40th of a pt ew   12/1                  3rd

Judicial Law                                                        3 00 Chl/               1/40th of a pt ew   22/1                  2nd 

The Dasher Conway                                         1 15 Chl/               1/40th of a pt ew   20/1

Call Me Ginger                                                   3 20 Don/             1/40th of a pt ew   18/1

Sil Ver Klass                                                        2 39 Kel/               1/40th of a pt win  22/1

American Sniper                                                3 00 Chl/               1/40th of a pt ew   60/1

Mister Fogpatches                                            2 25 Chl/                1/40th of a pt ew   44/1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

P/L    + 173.30 pts

Edited October 28, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[fd1972uk]

Newbury abandoned.

[richard-westwood]

Only the one race catches my attention ...

3.00 chelt 

Espoir de romay.  8.7 16/1 

Party business.   8.6 20/1 

Flight deck. 8.3. 66/1 

Very open race and hard to know who's going to be fit ....and both top rated have had wind surgery so it could help or hinder but with 6 places on offer let's just play and see what happens. .  ....5pt Ew all 3 

Good luck all who play in this race 😁

[White Feather]

Brief Times 14/1 - 14:25 Cheltenham - Sky bet 5 places

Espoir De Romay 16/1 - 15:00 Cheltenham - Sky bet 6 places

2 x singles

Each way double

[White Feather]

Five key stats to help you beat the bookies on Saturday

Fergal O'Brien has an eyecatching 45 per cent strike-rate (9-20) when sending horses to Kelso - Highland Hunter 13:29 Kelso

Emma Lavelle is one of the most in-form trainers with five winners from 15 runners (33 per cent strike-rate) in the past fortnight - Red Rookie 13:15 Cheltenham - Call To Duty 16:45

Apprentice Connor Planas has a 38 per cent strike-rate (5-13) at Doncaster - He heads to Town Moor for one mount on the Grant Tuer-trained Glorious Angel in the 5f handicap (3.20).

Clifton Warrior goes well fresh and is one to keep on side in the 2m2f novice chase - 15:42 Galway

Simon and Ed Crisford have a 40 per cent strike-rate (2-5) when fitting blinkers, a hood or a visor for the first time to their runners at this all-weather track - Karriewhitchit 18:00 Chelmsford.

[Darran]

Won’t see a better race all day than the Cox Plate and I’m still not sure how Romantic Warrior managed to get his head in front on the line. Now 3/3 in the big spring Aussie races. Will attempt to make it 4/4 in the Melbourne Cup a week on Tuesday 

[Brahmin]

😘 Thank you @Darran .........for a nice surprise this morning of a 50pt profit for a 40pt outlay.

[azzybear]

juudie 11.50 France 

[yossa6133]

Triple Trade 1:15 Cheltenham (14/1 e/w 4 places bet365). I really liked his win at Kempton where he was well backed and easily beat Light and Strike by 10 lengths (won next time out). Gone up 10lbs, off 187 days and has a very different track to contend with, but 14/1 looks too big especially with 4 places.

The fav is the obvious one and that Warwick win was seriously impressive, especially with the other 3 all winning next time out. But does have a long break and an injury to overcome, so is not guaranteed to be the same horse today. Before Midnight has dropped a lot in the weights but might need to drop further, it's hard to know how good he is anymore.

 

0.5pts e/w 14/1 4 places 

 

Cracking race. They were always going a bit fast for mine but he stayed on well, without quite looking like catching the winner. Might have won without a couple of slow jumps.

 

 

p/l: -0.9pts

Edited October 28, 2023 by yossa6133

[azzybear]

clever actress 12.22 France 

[fd1972uk]

Had Haddex the Haddy in the 1st at Cheltenham, also had Guy on mb3 so poor start.

1500 che hugos new horse, main bet

Also went ew on Richards trio, also used a free bet on judicial law ew.

1520 instrisonic bond, vintage clarets and Aberama gold will complete doubles via coral bb.

1728 don thunder roar (dbl with ancient wisdom)

Good luck all.

[Brahmin]

👍 so far so good with increasing the 50pt profit from Darrens 3 tips in Aussie race ..........

Triple Trade 10/1 EW 2nd....  Blueking D'oroux 5/2  WON........Amirite 11/2 EW  4th.....

in 3.00 backed both of G Elliotts...... Gortmillish  14/1 EW           Ringdufferin  14/1 EW                    Hyland  10/1 EW     WON           6 places betfair

 

            2 WINS 🏆🏆 and 2 EW places soooo will take that 👍 .... as Hyland @ 10/1EW won us nicely over 3 figures alone  😎 💷....... 

    Hi @LEE-GRAYS .....2 happy people here as hubby delighted at my Aussie win over night with 50pt profit...... soooo hubby 'invested' in few races this afternoon and made well over 3 figure profit! 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Brahmin

[richard-westwood]

21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Only the one race catches my attention ...

3.00 chelt 

Espoir de romay.  8.7 16/1 

Party business.   8.6 20/1 

Flight deck. 8.3. 66/1 

Very open race and hard to know who's going to be fit ....and both top rated have had wind surgery so it could help or hinder but with 6 places on offer let's just play and see what happens. .  ....5pt Ew all 3 

Good luck all who play in this race 😁

Flight deck 3rd !!....I'm happy with that ....pays at 13/1 so +40.00 on the day 😀

[LEE-GRAYS]

41 minutes ago, Brahmin said:

👍 so far so good with increasing the 50pt profit from Darrens 3 tips in Aussie race ..........

Triple Trade 10/1 EW 2nd....  Blueking D'oroux 5/2  WON........Amirite 11/2 EW  4th.....

in 3.00 backed both of G Elliotts...... Gortmillish  14/1 EW           Ringdufferin  14/1 EW                    Hyland  10/1 EW     WON           6 places betfair

 

            2 WINS 🏆🏆 and 2 EW places soooo will take that 👍 .... as Hyland @ 10/1EW won us nicely over 3 figures alone  😎 💷....... 

    Hi @LEE-GRAYS .....2 happy people here as hubby delighted at my Aussie win over night with 50pt profit...... soooo hubby 'invested' in few races this afternoon and made well over 3 figure profit! 

We’ll done we had winner of 1st at Cheltenham also places in other races there couple of winners in France do far few more to go on lucky 15 

[fd1972uk]

Aberama gold, Judicial law and flight deck probably have me near breaking even or maybe up little for today including footy (Chelsea?????). Thunder Roar will have me in profit for defo.

Doing last 5 races at Gulfstream tonight with wife in a wee US Racenight.

Edited October 28, 2023 by fd1972uk

[azzybear]

flooring porter 4.10 

[Brahmin]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

We’ll done we had winner of 1st at Cheltenham also places in other races there couple of winners in France do far few more to go on lucky 15 

👍 oh well done you and no doubt Carole to 😎.......enjoy Halloween this evening, well lots houses are decorated ready and we have a large 'Swizzels sweet shop' tub for the children / neighbours who may call later im sure 🧛‍♀️ 🧛‍♂️