Racing Chat - Saturday September 2nd

[The Brigadier]

 

Not a very inspiring day's racing to be honest but a strong fancy in the 3.00 Sandown (if only the trainer was in better form). Still there's winners to be found and here's my thoughts on the day's ITV races. Good luck everyone.

 

Sandown 1.50

A tricky enough eleven runner 7F handicap kicks things off today for terrestrial viewers. A big eye-catcher last time out was Alice Haynes’s four year old gelding Indemnify when failing to get a run when running on to finish fourth over a mile in a similar handicap here. The grey has a big weight to carry but has shown his liking for this track when winning over a mile here in May and may actually appreciate stepping back to 7F under Kieran O’Neill.

 

INDEMNIFY 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Beverley 2.05

A winnable eight runner 1M 4F class 2 handicap for the money. Roger Varian’s Aimeric maybe the answer if we can overlook his latest poor effort at Newmarket when tailing off last. Conditions look ideal and the word from Newmarket is he’s ready to run a big race following some good work outs with the likes of Postileo (recent Hamilton winner). Pulled out at Goodwood recently when the ground went soft he’ll prefer any rain to stay away.

 

AIMERIC 1 points each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Sandown 2.25

The Group 3 Atalanta Stakes is run over 1M and is for 3yo+ fillies and mares. Richard Hannon’s Heredia is unbeaten in two runs over a mile, the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot last year and last time out in a listed race at Haydock when taking her field apart coming home 3 3/4L ahead of the re-opposing Purplepay. Shes joint top rated in the race alongside last year’s winner Potapova and this year’s Sandringham winner Coppice and looks sure to be thereabouts.

 

HEREDIA 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Beverley 2.40

The Beverley Bullet Sprint is a listed race run over the minimum trip of 5F and this year we have a small but select field of seven. The winner of this race for the last two years Tis Marvellous is back but he’s shown nothing this season beating only 3 of his 48 rivals! Apollo One is the form horse having finished runner up in the Wokingham and Stewards Cup this season and although he’s dropping a furlong today can come late and take a prize he thoroughly deserves.

 

APOLLO ONE 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

Sandown 3.00

A competitive 10F class 2 handicap can go the way of last year’s runner up Dual Identity who looks great each way value to go one better this year around from a mark only one pound higher. He’s had excuses for his last runs (drawn out wide at Goodwood and on wrong side in Royal Hunt Cup previously). The only negative is that his trainer William Knight has now gone 57 runs and 57 days without a winner but if anywhere near his best will surely go close.

 

DUAL IDENTITY 2 points each way @ 8/1 Boyles 1/5th 1234

 

Chester 3.20

This six runner listed Caa Stellar Chester Stakes may well end up being fought out by Ralph Beckett’s Lone Eagle and the Godolphin three year old Military Order. Preference is for the latter who we haven’t seen since disappointing on fast ground finishing plum last in the Epsom Derby in June. The fast ground may well have been the reason for that moderate effort and back on an easier surface stepped up in trip can take this under William Buick en route to a tilt at the St Leger in a fortnights time.

 

MILITARY ORDER 3 points win @ 4/6 Ladbrokes

 

Sandown 3.38

Only six go to post for this Group 3 Solario Stakes that has been won by some smart sorts over the years. I’m still not sure about the Sir Michael Stoute yard despite a winner at Windsor last Saturday night and his Starlore is overlooked for that reason alone. The pick is the Ralph Beckett trained Mortlake who showed his debut run on soft ground was all wrong when bolting up at Leicester, coasting home to win by 5L and with his trainer in such fine form is the selection with Rossa Ryan doing the steering.

 

MORTLAKE 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

[Brahmin]

6pm Friday evening, sooo putting a few early bets on as good prices i hope, while im 'cheffing' doing our Stir fry 😎  .......

Great / interesting read again by The Brigadier, will pick some to back Win / EW along with maybe some NAPS......

10pm 👍 for Luton scoring in 92nd minute to bring in my 5 timer BTTS  @ over 20/1, so below bets put on earlier nearly paid for now 😎 ...

Ches 1.35   Boardman  8/1 EW          Spioradalta  14/1 EW     4th            4 places

Sand 1.50   Maywake  12/1 EW   WON        King Cabo  20/1 EW    2nd         b365  4 places

Bev 2.05    Dark Jedi  22/1 EW        Perfect Play 13/2 EW    2nd

Navan 2.15   Storm Miami  5/2             Gloucester  11/4        b365

Sand 2.25   Heredia 4/1    WON     betfair          Coppice 9/2    betfair                Novus  25/1 EW       b365

Bev 2.40    Apollo One  7/2               Kerdos   3/1   WON                          Elegant Erin  40/1 EW              b365

Chester 2.45      Skallywag Bay   9/1 EW             Sugar Hill Babe  16/1 EW          b365  4 places

Navan 2.50    Ever Rock  12/1 EW    6th   14/1        Eruption  40/1 EW  NR           Cholita  22/1  EW                     b365    6 places       

Sand 3.00     Certain Lad  20/1 EW   2nd   22/1         Andaleep  12/1 EW         betfair      4 places 

 

               3 WINS 🏆 🏆 🏆 and  5 EW  places 👍.......so am happy with this afternoon.   

Edited September 2, 2023 by Brahmin

[black rabbit]

Certain Lad                                               3 00 San/                 1/40th of a pt ew      25/1

Dashing Roger                                         3 00 San/                  1/40th of a pt ew     33/1

Tis Marvellous                                          2 40 Bev/                  1/40th of a pt win   14/1

Global Spirit                                              5 00 Bev/                  1/40th of a pt ew    20/1

 

 

 

 

P/L   +  170.90 pts

Edited September 2, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, black rabbit said:

Certain Lad                                               3 00 San/                 1/40th of a p25/t ew      25/1

I fancy the Channon horse too but where is the 25/1 i want some of that each way.

[black rabbit]

4 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

I fancy the Channon horse too but where is the 25/1 i want some of that each way.

ted caught me on way out to duck/ i punt with an illegal bookie have for last 18 year  stretch he gets on infar east and its his prices  { he lay's me }

we' pals really and he gets on for few trainers  ect  { under the radar }  horse iv"e had a positave for and working well at home for what its worth

[Tedthewolf]

1 minute ago, black rabbit said:

ted caught me on way out to duck/ i punt with an illegal bookie have for last 18 year  stretch he gets on infar east and its his prices  { he lay's me }

we' pals really and he gets on for few trainers  ect  { under the radar }  horse iv"e had a positave for and working well at home for what its worth

Thanks Pal 👍

[Tedthewolf]

Certain Lad @ 18/1

Sandown 15:00 - PLACED

4 - 1/ 5

 

 

 

Fools Rush In @ 20/1

Chester 13:35 - Lost

4 - 1/ 5

 

 

 

Call Me Ginger @ 10/1

Chester 16:30 - WIN

4 - 1/ 5

 

 

 

Indemnify @ 5/1

Sandown 13:50 - Placed

4 - 1/ 5    

0.2 e/w L15  not bog Bet365 

6pts Invested

 

Three placed  (one winner) always one lets me down  damn it and not having bog didn't help  but still  near 17pt return.

 

Return 16.99pts

Edited September 2, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[richard-westwood]

My Intrnets at home is  down til Monday but I only  had chance to rate 1 race 

3.00 sand 

Certain lad  9.0 20/1  

Groundbreaker   8.9  14/1 

Gaasee    8.4 

Top 2 look fantastic value ew ....especially top rated which u see has Been popular above  ....could be a big coup for the forum????.....cmon the lads !!!!

5pt ew top 2 ...forecasts top 3 

5 places 

Edited September 1, 2023 by richard-westwood

[The Equaliser]

14 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

I fancy the Channon horse too but where is the 25/1 i want some of that each way.

You can get 22/1 4p with Bet365 or Ladbrokes if you want to back it.  It hasn't won for over 3 years so I don't think I would lump on though

Edited September 2, 2023 by The Equaliser

[harry_rag]

14 hours ago, black rabbit said:

he gets on infar east

Yarmouth or Lowestoft? 

[Tedthewolf]

39 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

You can get 22/1 4p with Bet365 or Ladbrokes if you want to back it.  It hasn't won for over 3 years so I don't think I would lump on though

22's with  BOG  will do me just fine  each to there own.

[black rabbit]

43 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Yarmouth or Lowestoft? 

Macao  i think  { just off Lowestoft } harry   😃    "west ham" for the title ??     

[LEE-GRAYS]

1 hour ago, black rabbit said:

Macao  i think  { just off Lowestoft } harry   😃    "west ham" for the title ??     

Yes ⚒⚒⚒⚒

[kensland]

Double. 

5.20.Sand.Clipsham La Habana         8/1   unpl

7.00. Wolv. Newport Boy                    16/1

singles & double 

stk 6.00    rtn 306.00

Single.

Craon 

3.42. Maymay     11/4    unpl

 sk 5.00   rtn 18.00

Good luck all. 

Edited September 2, 2023 by kensland

[Sporting Sam]

sandown 3pm
 

I certainly agree about the Channon horse top weight group horse in a handicap. Won off 108 two years ago listed winner in Dubai. 
Also very close to the fifteenth year draw data in stall 6  which works out at 7.4

Hughie Morrison horse is the draw data horse ridden by Oisin Murphy 

The other interesting one is 

Great Max

each way

Kevin Stott rides. AMO retain the ownership but this runner has switched yards for this race a ploy this outfit has adopted before to target specific races.

Certain lad

win

Stay well

win

Great max

each way

the other link about this runner is the  sire Wootton Bassett had the winner in this race last year in Protagonist.

 

 

Edited September 2, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, black rabbit said:

"west ham" for the title ??     

Absolutely no chance, or at least even less than will be implied by whatever the odds are. Playing very well but the more realistic question (still a stretch) would be "top 4 finish?".

Seen a suggestion that the squad is too good for the current manager now and that they need someone better to realise the potential of the playing talent they've got. Not sure what the cognoscenti feel about that. I seem to be developing a foolproof way of determining who will score for them in any given game; whoever I swerve on the basis of their being "too short" will stick one away!

[Sporting Sam]

13 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Absolutely no chance, or at least even less than will be implied by whatever the odds are. Playing very well but the more realistic question (still a stretch) would be "top 4 finish?".

Seen a suggestion that the squad is too good for the current manager now and that they need someone better to realise the potential of the playing talent they've got. Not sure what the cognoscenti feel about that. I seem to be developing a foolproof way of determining who will score for them in any given game; whoever I swerve on the basis of their being "too short" will stick one away!

I was simply happy for Zuoma’s cat that he scored last night.

changing the gaffer would be madness,  absolutely it would be overdone you could say.

[black rabbit]

14 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Absolutely no chance, or at least even less than will be implied by whatever the odds are. Playing very well but the more realistic question (still a stretch) would be "top 4 finish?".

Seen a suggestion that the squad is too good for the current manager now and that they need someone better to realise the potential of the playing talent they've got. Not sure what the cognoscenti feel about that. I seem to be developing a foolproof way of determining who will score for them in any given game; whoever I swerve on the basis of their being "too short" will stick one away!

harry i was"nt been serious 😆    im a closet hammers fan  but title never  unless a rag head arrives and buys clup out

[Sporting Sam]

NAVAN 1:40

Lively set

each way

CIAO FOR NOW

win

Edited September 2, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[ivans82]

The perils of betting in the bread and butter races on a Saturday have never been better shown than in the first 2 races on TV today .Morning gamble on Lord Bertie , left in the stalls  , jockey made no attempt to roust the horse up to try and regain a position , never looked interested at any point . Tough Enough  , shoe removed at the start , again never looked happy at any point , tailed off . Horse obviously was not fit to run after twisting a shoe going down to the start .

[Sporting Sam]

Navan 

2:15

STORM MIAMI

win

a real chance for Ger Lyons runner here. Good form in listed races and touched off by tiger Belle. That form well franked with the horse racing to group three glory in the week. Lyons other runner  mr Saturday complete with Colin Keane has been pulled from an adjoining stall. That maybe the icing on the cake and although this runner gives many pounds to the field that is supplemented by a half stone claimer on board. Only a few runners here and many feel the draw is not of any consequence but it still counts.

It is also worth knowing about the draw, stall 3 is drawn next to every horse left in the race given the draw bias and the turning nature of the track. The human  runners even in a 400 metres race are staggered  many metres behind each other on a turning track.!

Edited September 2, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[fd1972uk]

Had Maywake as part of virgin moneyback offer, was 10/1.

Did have tough enough and lord bertie too on doubles, but heyho.

225 main bet on queen for you, although going with heredia for my free doubles.

[black rabbit]

49 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:

I was simply happy for Zuoma’s cat that he scored last night.

changing the gaffer would be madness,  absolutely it would be overdone you could say.

agree  madness to change gaffer   " the venkey's spring to mind when the took over at blackburn and got rid of big sam

"that one went well" 😄   did'nt it -     NOT

[Tedthewolf]

1pt e/w 3.00 Sandown- CERTAIN LAD 20/1 BOG 4places

2pts invested 8 in total for the day.

2nd Returned 5.40pts

Edited September 2, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

You can get 22/1 4p with Bet365 or Ladbrokes if you want to back it.  It hasn't won for over 3 years so I don't think I would lump on though

😛

[Zilzalian]

2yo speed figures 338 Sandown.

Mortlake                     131

Aablan                         119+

Inishfallen                   118

Starlore                       117+

                   

[harry_rag]

@Zilzalian even I was on it! 

Split across Lads and Hills for best price/place terms. As it was the extra place was academic.

[Zilzalian]

Just now, harry_rag said:

@Zilzalian even I was on it! 

Split across Lads and Hills for best price/place terms. As it was the extra place was academic.

Bit of a bugger was i had certain lad and stay well for a forecast certain lad really was chucked in so not sure where professor equals was coming from but you always get a negative commentator amongst so much positivity, luckily we didn't lump on that warning.

[Zilzalian]

13 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

2yo speed figures 338 Sandown.

Mortlake                     131

Aablan                         119+

Inishfallen                   118

Starlore                       117+

                   

this is one of those races where you can either back Mortlake seriously or cross the outsiders in rfc's

[fd1972uk]

Had heridea and dual identity and also went each way on certain lad as you guys were giving the heads up, so well done.

Very profitable day today.

Edited September 2, 2023 by fd1972uk