Tennis Tips - August 14 - August 20

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Sloane Stephens to beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto at 1.57 with Unibet

A good price for Stephens to beat the clay court specialist imo. I was a bit worried about Stephens last week, but she played relatively well, and she tends to be focused enough on home ground. Cocciaretto is coming into this straight from clay as well.

[sterziyskii]

Berettini and Ruusuvuori should win their first matches.

[MJT]

Not a huge fan of the card today so my plays will only be small. Sorry no write ups today as struggling for time.

Double 1.97, Unibet (NAP)
Isner v Thompson Over 22.5 Games
Evans v Musetti Over 19.5 Games

Double 2.21, William Hill (NB)
Safiullin v Jarry Over 21.5 Games
Nakashima v Wawrinka Over 21.5 Games

Double 2.06, Unibet
Berrettini v Auger Aliassime Over 21.5 Games
Cerundolo v Lajovic Over 19.5 Games

Stephens -2.5 Games v Cocciaretto 1.88, Pinnacle
Zhu to beat Kalinina 2.0, Pinnacle
Svitolina -3.5 Games v Wozniacki 1.93, Pinnacle

[MJT]

Double 2.05, Unibet (NAP)
Rublev to beat Ruusuvuori x Bencic -1.5 sets v Bucsa
Rublev will be keen to get some wins this week after going out in the 1st round in Toronto. Especially with the US open just around the corner. Rublev leads the head to head 2-0 & should dominate the majority of baseline rallies. Bencic has been playing some excellent tennis over the last couple of months. Bucsa lost heavily in recent weeks to Parks & Martic winning just 7 games. Bencic is a level above both of those players & should win without dropping more than 6-8 games.

Purcell to beat Harris 2.10 Bet365 (NB)
I just can’t understand why Harris is favourite in this. Recent form all points towards Purcell who has been playing some very impressive tennis in recent weeks. He beat Auger-Aliassime & should have beaten Murray in Toronto last week. He’s also had 2 good wins in qualifying against Van Assche & the in form Popyrin so will be used to the conditions. Harris has been poor over recent weeks losing tamely to Shimabukuro 6-4 6-3 & last match against Broady 6-3 6-4. He has only won 5 tour matches this season. Harris has power but to hurt Purcell but his consistency all season has not been on show. Purcell will get plenty of balls back which will frustrate Harris. Purcell has reached 6 challenger finals this year & is in the better form & should be favourite for me.

Other plays:
Purcell Over 12.5 Games v Harris 1.93, Pinnacle
Bouzkova -2.5 Games v Begu 1.88, Pinnacle
Double: Stephens v Garcia Over 19.5 Games x Alexandrova v Cirstea Over 19.5 Games 2.10, Unibet
Double: Humbert v Fils Over 19.5 Games x Hurkacz v Kokkinakis Over 22.5 Games 1.96, Unibet

Long Shot:
Hurkacz v Kokkinakis Over 1.5 Tie Breaks 5.50 Skybet/Paddy Power

[CzechPunter]

Donna Vekic to beat Jennifer Brady at 2.02 with Unibet

Brady stormed back to the tour with some impressive performances over the last two major tournaments, but I'm not sure I quite trust her here as the favorite. Vekic is always a tricky customer and I have some small doubts about Brady's fitness and her ability to sustain the momentum. There are now some expectations that she should perform well, and, before she produced those nice performances, she lost against Sakatsume in straight sets, so it's not all rosy for her. I like Vekic as the underdog in this spot.

[CzechPunter]

Petra Kvitova to beat Linda Noskova at 1.44 with William Hill

Noskova had a great win over the tired Samsonova yesterday, but I don't trust her here at all. She was in awe when she met Kvitova in Miami earlier this season, and she lost in a double quick time, 3-6 0-6. This should be closer, but I think that the burden of playing against someone who's been her hero will eventually take its toll.

[MJT]

Zverev 2-0 v Nishioka + Medvedev to beat Musetti 1.92, William Hill (NAP)
Zverev should be too strong in this one. The lefty shots from Nishioka will go to the backhand of Zverev which is his strongest & most reliable shot. He should also get plenty of looks at the much weaker Nishioka serve. Medvedev beat Musetti in straight sets last week in Toronoto 6-4 6-4. On a fast hard court he should be winning this comfortably again.

Other plays:
Paul Over 12.5 Games v Humbert 1.78, Pinnacle
Humbert v Paul Over 21.5 Games + Tiafoe v Wawrinka Over 21.5 Games 2.29, Unibet
Mertens v Bouzkova Over 7.5 Breaks of Serve 1.83, Bet365
Gracheva Over 2.5 Breaks of Serve + Paolini Over 4.5 Breaks of Serve 2.77, Bet365

May have a couple of further plays for the later matches today

[four-leaf]

Yue Yuan to beat Kateryna Baindl at 1.75 with Unibet

Yue is clearly the more progressive player here. She played very dominating last match. Her serving is really hot. Baindl doesn't impress me.

Edited August 16, 2023 by four-leaf

[MJT]

Three final plays today:

Paolini -2.5 Games v Bucsa 1.88, Pinnacle

Double 2.10, William Hill
Kvitova to beat Noskova + Sabalenka 2-0 v Ann Li

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Ben Shelton
Over 23 Games 1.98 Pinnacle

[CzechPunter]

Cori Gauff to beat Linda Noskova 2-0 at 1.73 with Bet365

Going against Noskova again, as Gauff was dominant yesterday and looked motivated as hell as well. Noskova now with two big wins in a row, and I once again don't trust her, Kvitova just wasn't clinical enough yesterday.

[four-leaf]

Bai Zhouxuan to beat Yue Yuan at 2.03 with Unibet

Bai is really impressive, she's gonna be knocking on top 100 very soon. Yuan has been top 100 but didn't maintain her stay as it wasn't her level really and now resides at 113. Was as high as 106 recently. Anyway Bai has a very impressive win/loss of 100-31 and I've followed her recently in ITFs and it's been some smashing performances from her. She is cruising and it will take more than Yues quite shaky performances in Stanford to beat her. I thought Yue had a win coming yesterday but it took a lot of hard work like the match before. She's been overall the more stable player of those she's beat in Stanford but it's 2 hard fought wins where it hasn't been plain sailing in any match until third set. I am even doubtful if Yue will make it to 1 set tonight because that's how good Bai is. 

[MJT]

Only small plays for me today as not a massive fan of the matches.

Tsitsipas v Hurkacz
Over 12.5 Games 1st Set 3.25, Skybet
Hurkacz Win and Over 21.5 Games 3.20, William Hill
Over 1.5 Tie Breaks 4.50, Bet365

Djokovic win & Over 19.5 Games 2.10, Bet365

Tsitsipas v Hurkacz Over 22.5 Games + Sakkari v Muchova Over 19.5 Games 2.16 Unibet

 

[Torque]

27 minutes ago, MJT said:

Only small plays for me today as not a massive fan of the matches.

Tsitsipas v Hurkacz
Over 12.5 Games 1st Set 3.25, Skybet
Hurkacz Win and Over 21.5 Games 3.20, William Hill
Over 1.5 Tie Breaks 4.50, Bet365

Djokovic win & Over 19.5 Games 2.10, Bet365

Tsitsipas v Hurkacz Over 22.5 Games + Sakkari v Muchova Over 19.5 Games 2.16 Unibet

 

Nice tie-break price. Incredible you can get those odds with the players involved.

[CzechPunter]

Max Purcell (+5.5) to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 1.83 with Unibet

Poor Max, getting no respect after beating Ruud and Wawrinka back-to-back. It's understandable given Alcaraz's statute, but I'll side with the underdog on what's a very sizeable handicap line for a men's match at this stage of an event. Purcell is in the form of his life and Alcaraz isn't as dominant as you'd expect - let's just hope that the Australian won't start feeling serious nerves.

[MJT]

Treble 1.95, William Hill (NAP)

Djokovic to beat Fritz

Alcaraz to beat Purcell

Gauff 2-0 v Paolini

Djokovic leads 7-0 against Fritz. In order to keep this close Fritz would have to serve lights out but even that may not be enough against the returning skills of Djokovic, arguably the best returner in tennis history. Alcaraz has not been at his best in recent weeks but he should be too strong & consistent. Purcell has done incredibly well to reach this stage but this is all new territory for him & there could well be some nerves kicking in. Alcaraz would have to have a major off day to lose. Gauff was excellent yesterday against Noskova & should win comfortably again today. Paolina has good movement but lacks any major weapons to hurt Gauff. She may keep it close early on but like last week in her loss to Pegula I expect Gauff to then run away with it.

 

Hurkacz v Popyrin

Over 23 Games 1.96, Pinnacle

Over 1.5 Tie Breaks 8.0, Skybet

I've played the same bet twice already this week & hoping it may be the same outcome as when Hurkacz beat Kokkinakis. Hurkacz managed to break twice yesterday after Tsitsipas gifted games away with double faults/errors. Hurkacz has a poor return game so as long as Popyrin serves well there should be plenty of games & the likelihood of one or more tie breaks. Hurkacz does lead the head to head 2-0 but Popyrin has been playing much better tennis in recent months so should keep it close.

[MJT]

51 minutes ago, MJT said:

Treble 1.95, William Hill (NAP)

Djokovic to beat Fritz

Alcaraz to beat Purcell

Gauff 2-0 v Paolini

Djokovic leads 7-0 against Fritz. In order to keep this close Fritz would have to serve lights out but even that may not be enough against the returning skills of Djokovic, arguably the best returner in tennis history. Alcaraz has not been at his best in recent weeks but he should be too strong & consistent. Purcell has done incredibly well to reach this stage but this is all new territory for him & there could well be some nerves kicking in. Alcaraz would have to have a major off day to lose. Gauff was excellent yesterday against Noskova & should win comfortably again today. Paolina has good movement but lacks any major weapons to hurt Gauff. She may keep it close early on but like last week in her loss to Pegula I expect Gauff to then run away with it.

 

Hurkacz v Popyrin

Over 23 Games 1.96, Pinnacle

Over 1.5 Tie Breaks 8.0, Skybet

I've played the same bet twice already this week & hoping it may be the same outcome as when Hurkacz beat Kokkinakis. Hurkacz managed to break twice yesterday after Tsitsipas gifted games away with double faults/errors. Hurkacz has a poor return game so as long as Popyrin serves well there should be plenty of games & the likelihood of one or more tie breaks. Hurkacz does lead the head to head 2-0 but Popyrin has been playing much better tennis in recent months so should keep it close.

Also adding:

Double 2.08, Pinnacle (NB)
Alcaraz 2-0 v Purcell x Gauff 2-0 v Paolini

[adastra]

Regarding Djokovic leading 6-0 (or 7-0?) in the H2H against Fritz: Despite Djokovic being a quite heavy favourite in this match, the H2H is a bit misleading. 3 of the matches were on clay (where Fritz is weak) and two were on indoor hard (Fritz is weaker indoors compared to outdoors). Their last match (on indoor hard, end of last season) went to two tiebreaks (which Djokovic won) and their only match on outdoor hard was a five-setter! Additionally, my impression is that Djokovic's ability to return big serves has declined a bit. Furthermore, currently Fritz's level - in general - can be considered close to his historical peak, although he did play quite a lot recently (possible exhaustion), but on the other hand Djokovic might still be a bit rusty after a long break (looking good so far, though, but weak opponents). Overall a bet on Fritz for me (average odds of 4.59).

And well... Alcaraz is clearly a heavy favourite against Purcell, but he did have quite a few off-days as of late... dangerous to bet on him.

Right now watching Hurkacz vs Popyrin, Hurkacz dominating so far, I have a bet on a regular bookmaker (= no exchange) which is rare (William Hill, 1.333) because dozens of bookmaker don't accept my action anymore. Mentioning this as yesterday my bet on Mannarino vs McDonald was voided there because the whole match needs to be completed. And on the same day my bet on Hurkacz vs Lajovic (on Betfair exchange) was voided as well! Really annoying...

Edited August 18, 2023 by adastra

[CzechPunter]

Nothing for me today, but good luck guys!