Racing Chat - Friday 7th July

[Villa Chris]

Newton Abbot 3.50

Coolnaugh Haze 9.37 11/4 4th

Just The Man 9.27 14/1 3rd 

Glorious Zoff 8.87 5/2 2nd 

Throne Hall 8.83 6/1

Closer tuan the rating suggest I think, and Just The Man is a weird one. I’m pretty certain the winner will come from 1 3 or 4. I’ll stick with Coolnaugh though who’s been running well and a touch unlucky not to have got his head in front. He’s been finishing his races off very well so it’s all about timing with him I think .  He’s worse off at weights than a couple of them but hopefully he can time it right because he’ll need every yard of this trip . 
 

Newton Abbot 5.00 D’Jango 10/3

Wexford 7.23 Birchdale 2/1

5 points win each all bog 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Villa Chris

[Zilzalian]

I have been sat pondering the 3:05 at Sandown  and noticed Yabir is well odds on which seems very iffy to me it doesn't appear to like softish ground and it was only 6th beaten 10 lengths in the ascot gold cup (not the best gold cup of the last few years) I have been tracking Estacas since it won a bumper at ascot for Adreas Wohler since then it has gone to the Bridgwater stable presumably to go jumping where it won at 20/1 in a very good time. It was 200/1 early doors before going off at 40/1 in the Queen Alexandria (2m5f) beaten 4.5 lengths. The stayers look a bit weak this year the only distance winners in the field are the Charlton gg ex Fanshawe Sleeping Lion which at 12/1 is also not a bad price and Kings horse Raymond Tusk at 20/1 but that 40/1 about Estacas is proper value to my thinking pity there are only 2 places but given the weakness of this race i can see Estacas outstaying this lot so is a reasonable bet, put it this way would you like to put a tenner on Yabir at 4/11 or a fiver (ew for the ladies) on Estacas at 40/1?  So for me its a tenner on Estacas to win and a £2.50 RFC with Sleeping Lion.

[kensland]

Haydock.

Single. 

9.00. La Fella     5/1           10/1         1st 

stk 5.00    rtn 30.00

Another Ralph Beckett treble.

4.50. Sand. Seahouses              11/2    unpl

5.10.. Bevl. Game Breaker         2/1    unpl

6.40. Hayd. Feud                        13/8     1st 

stk 3.50      rtn 46.63.

Good luck all. 

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by kensland

[Villa Chris]

8 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I have been sat pondering the 3:05 at Sandown  and noticed Yabir is well odds on which seems very iffy to me it doesn't appear to like softish ground and it was only 6th beaten 10 lengths in the ascot gold cup (not the best gold cup of the last few years) I have been tracking Estacas since it won a bumper at ascot for Adreas Wohler since then it has gone to the Bridgwater stable presumably to go jumping where it won at 20/1 in a very good time. It was 200/1 early doors before going off at 40/1 in the Queen Alexandria (2m5f) beaten 4.5 lengths. The stayers look a bit weak this year the only distance winners in the field are the Charlton gg ex Fanshawe Sleeping Lion which at 12/1 is also not a bad price and Kings horse Raymond Tusk at 20/1 but that 40/1 about Estacas is proper value to my thinking pity there are only 2 places but given the weakness of this race i can see Estacas outstaying this lot so is a reasonable bet, put it this way would you like to put a tenner on Yabir at 4/11 or a fiver (ew for the ladies) on Estacas at 40/1?  So for me its a tenner on Estacas to win and a £2.50 RFC with Sleeping Lion.

The one to beat if you could say he was definitely fit would be Ocean Wind I think.  Stays and has got some good form in the book. Just that massive lay off.  Definitely see your angle on Estacus and looking at the pace angle may take it up on the front along with Ocean Wind . Hollie Doyle’s mount is Interesting, but I’d love to know if Ocean Wind is primed .

Just read trainer said he’ll come on for run .

Edited July 7, 2023 by Villa Chris

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

The one to beat if you could say he was definitely fit would be Ocean Wind I think.  Stays and has got some good form in the book. Just that massive lay off.  Definitely see your angle on Estacus and looking at the pace angle may take it up on the front along with Ocean Wind . Hollie Doyle’s mount is Interesting, but I’d love to know if Ocean Wind is primed .

Just read trainer said he’ll come on for run .

Too many negatives for ocean wind for me. Like you say long lay off. Blinkered first time over that trip it will run out of steam and come last, trainer says will come on for the run and a shocking price at 5/1.

[Villa Chris]

9 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Too many negatives for ocean wind for me. Like you say long lay off. Blinkered first time over that trip it will run out of steam and come last, trainer says will come on for the run and a shocking price at 5/1.

Yeah managed to get hold of trainer comments on him . 5/1 for a horse off for over two years is garbage. Would be my selection if fit and ready without the long lay off though.  Small fields today and some skinny prices too. 

[kensland]

Beverley 

Single. 

5.50. The Dunkirk Lads        10/1        unpl

stk 5.00      rtn 55.00

Good luck all. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by kensland

[Brahmin]

Donc 2.20      Absolute dream   22/1 EW           &      Night arc   8/1 EW      2nd   10/1    7.50 pts     4 places     betfair

Sand 3.05      Estacas  40/1 EW                                                                                2 places 

N/abbot   3.15     Sandalwood      Evs    Won    &     3L win   5/4     Won.....     ( also in double with Yibir @ 2/5 )   Won...... Total 71.25 pts 👍

N/Abbot  3.50     Glorious Zoff    7/2       &        Coolnaugh Haze      4/1 

Donc 4.05      Rocket rodney    7/2      &        Miss Brazen      6/1

Bev 5.50       Indian Sounds    14/1 EW         &     The Dunkirk lads     10/1 EW       4 places 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Brahmin

[LEE-GRAYS]

Trying something different want the e/w don’t want to pay £3

[black rabbit]

Arecibo                       -                         1 55 San/   1/40th    of a pt win      12//1

Sleeping Lion             -                         3 05 San/   1/40th    of a pt win      12/1

Devils Point                -                         3 40 San/   1/40th    of a pt ew       18/1

 

 

 

 

P/L           +163.85 pts

Edited July 7, 2023 by black rabbit

[richard-westwood]

9.00 hay 

Danzart   8.0  4.7 

Sir maxi   7.7  8.6 

10pt wins both 

[Sporting Sam]

Newton Abbott

2.40

Guinness affair

Win

Not the best horse here, but Stepney causeway is unpredictable and magistrato has switched yards. 

He'd be favourite here if still in the hands of harry Cobden and Paul Nicholls. Young jockey and yard have not had a winner for a while and although they have a ready and willing horse, he's not the easiest of  rides.

Guinness affair has to give weight away but did it well over the trip and would have to be brought right back to them by the seven pound penalty, but looks progressive here.... Has to turn around a 27 lengths deficit with magistrato but can do so.

Edited July 7, 2023 by sporting sam

[Libby48]

Sandown

2.30 - Seageant Wilko 11/1 E/W

3.05 - Sleeping Lion 10/1 E/W

4.50 - ,Harrar    10/1 E/W 

Doncaster

2:20 - Absolute Dreamer  14/1 E/W

4.05-  Nomadic Empire 4/1 E/W

5.15  Vasillissa  14/1

Newton Abbott

3.15- Tulin 5/1 E/W

Beverley 

5.10 - Meccas Princess  9/1

5.50 - ManJeski Man 16/1

7.00 My honey b 4/1

7.35 Jamih 16/1

Haydock

6.40 - Dreams adozen 12/1

8.25 - Forveful Spirit 80/1

9.00 Mohareb 14/1

Bellestown

4.10 - Tall Story  14/1

7.05 - Helen's delight 200/1

7.40 Shining Aitch 7/1

8.15 Kalaroun 40/1

Wexford

6.13  Down Around 5/1

7.23 All those years 10/1

7.58 Coole Arcade8/1

8.28- Into the unknown 50/1

E/W

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Villa Chris]

Good run from Ocean Wind after two years off. He’d have pissed that if match fit I reckon. 

[Zilzalian]

15 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I have been sat pondering the 3:05 at Sandown  and noticed Yabir is well odds on which seems very iffy to me it doesn't appear to like softish ground and it was only 6th beaten 10 lengths in the ascot gold cup (not the best gold cup of the last few years) I have been tracking Estacas since it won a bumper at ascot for Adreas Wohler since then it has gone to the Bridgwater stable presumably to go jumping where it won at 20/1 in a very good time. It was 200/1 early doors before going off at 40/1 in the Queen Alexandria (2m5f) beaten 4.5 lengths. The stayers look a bit weak this year the only distance winners in the field are the Charlton gg ex Fanshawe Sleeping Lion which at 12/1 is also not a bad price and Kings horse Raymond Tusk at 20/1 but that 40/1 about Estacas is proper value to my thinking pity there are only 2 places but given the weakness of this race i can see Estacas outstaying this lot so is a reasonable bet, put it this way would you like to put a tenner on Yabir at 4/11 or a fiver (ew for the ladies) on Estacas at 40/1?  So for me its a tenner on Estacas to win and a £2.50 RFC with Sleeping Lion.

Well that one went pear shaped but it is what it is, i agree with @Villa Chris that Ocean Wind is the one to take out of this race, did very well with all of its negatives.

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Haydock 9.00

COVERT MISSION

[The Equaliser]

Not much time to look at anything today so I'm grateful for @richard-westwood's posts.

Looked at the 9.00 HD.  Danzart has become a "bandwagon" horse with the Big3 selecting it.  The draw looks to be OK for both this one and Sir Maxi according to the stalls analyzer on Horseracebase as opposed to ATR saying high is best. I just can't bring myself to back it other than a cover bet.  I also like Mohareb.  I have decided to have 3 points win Sir Maxi at 9.8 and £1.20 on Danzart at 4.5.  Hence, 4.20 points out of the RW growth fund account.  I have had  a1 pt win on Mohareb at 14.5

In case RIchard is right about Maksud shortening too much tomorrow I have had 7 points to win at 7/1 (best I could get) and 2 pt ew on Euchen Glen at 16/1 for 5 places

Total stakes = 16.20 for today and tomorrow so far (15.20 on Richard's selections

 

[Villa Chris]

18 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Newton Abbot 3.50

Coolnaugh Haze 9.37 11/4 4th

Just The Man 9.27 14/1 3rd 

Glorious Zoff 8.87 5/2 2nd 

Throne Hall 8.83 6/1

Closer tuan the rating suggest I think, and Just The Man is a weird one. I’m pretty certain the winner will come from 1 3 or 4. I’ll stick with Coolnaugh though who’s been running well and a touch unlucky not to have got his head in front. He’s been finishing his races off very well so it’s all about timing with him I think .  He’s worse off at weights than a couple of them but hopefully he can time it right because he’ll need every yard of this trip . 
 

 

Surprised the winner didn’t come from the 3 I mentioned . Just The Man ran well at big odds.  I’ve followed Coolnaugh Haze in 3 times now and no success , I expect him to be upped in distance .

[Sporting Sam]

 

Doncaster

4.40

Grand provence

Win

Mukha magic

Each way

Stone in hand the bottom weight but does lack experience.

 

Bellewstown 

4.45

Vangelis

Each way

"You asked me where to begin."

This one has encountered issues the last twice, but finished a short head behind the juddamonte favourite here last time out. They could both improve, but at double figure odds and in last year's winning stall, somehow this one might find his way home.

Edited July 7, 2023 by sporting sam

[richard-westwood]

31 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Not much time to look at anything today so I'm grateful for @richard-westwood's posts.

Looked at the 9.00 HD.  Danzart has become a "bandwagon" horse with the Big3 selecting it.  The draw looks to be OK for both this one and Sir Maxi according to the stalls analyzer on Horseracebase as opposed to ATR saying high is best. I just can't bring myself to back it other than a cover bet.  I also like Mohareb.  I have decided to have 3 points win Sir Maxi at 9.8 and £1.20 on Danzart at 4.5.  Hence, 4.20 points out of the RW growth fund account.  I have had  a1 pt win on Mohareb at 14.5

In case RIchard is right about Maksud shortening too much tomorrow I have had 7 points to win at 7/1 (best I could get) and 2 pt ew on Euchen Glen at 16/1 for 5 places

Total stakes = 16.20 for today and tomorrow so far (15.20 on Richard's selections

 

Maksud is 2nd fav average 13/2 ...5/1 with sky ... is being well backed considering form figures 🤔 

[Sporting Sam]

Newton Abbot 

5pm.

2PP-F

Danny WhizzBang

Win 

Poor over hurdles as form shows but much better over fences.

Three time winner for Paul Nicholls under this jockey.

Class 1 winner and would carry these on old form as would the top weight here... 

Edited July 7, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Bellewstown

5.20

Fastman

Imposing supreame

Both win 

 

[Sporting Sam]

Newton Abbott

5.30

Finale and Gary Moore is all over the place with his winners and no suprise if

Sangiovese

 

Win

Can go in here.

Ought not too given the form of the two principals but well bred and Jamie doesn't have any fences to jump...

Have a saver win bet on

Maillot Vert

WIn

Sam twiston Davies is an excellent bumper jockey and it would be good if he went over to Ireland and had a go 

Edited July 7, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Doncaster 5.50

Rathbone

Each way

Sound reason

Win

Tough draw for in form rathbone 

[Sporting Sam]

Of course the venue is Beverley but the results the same 

5.50 Beverley

Sound reason 

Takes advantage of stall 1 and outstays the attentions of just one challenger. Well clear in the final half furlong.

[Sporting Sam]

Haydock 6.05

Owners dream

Each way.

Krystal clear.

Win 

[Sporting Sam]

Wexford 6.13

High city roller

Each way

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Maksud is 2nd fav average 13/2 ...5/1 with sky ... is being well backed considering form figures 🤔 

Well, as Jenny Pitman once said it doesn't matter how much money you put on a horse it won't make it run any faster.  I am pleased I got 7/1 though, many thanks for putting it up early

[azzybear]

disco bear 6.30 ew 

[Sporting Sam]

Bellewstown 6.30

Zigzag Ziggy

Each way

Sosallycanwait

Win

Banging on the door these two and have fallen a mile in ratings crucially physics of the weights and the draw give them a chance.

Disco Bear

Win

For same reasons

Edited July 7, 2023 by sporting sam