Racing Chat - Monday 5th June

[BBBC]

11 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I keep telling you that horses win races.  Jockeys and trainers stop horses winning they have to do it to fool the handicapper and stay competitive and you will never be privvy to that information. You need to build a data base around horses concentrate on that simple fact and you may well see an improvement in your returns. little example. Let’s see if you or anyone else can tell me what the best horse of the last 7 days is.

For fits and giggles …

I’ll give you 2 from the big races - Ace impact and White Birch (poorly placed in the Derby to challenge and may need further)

[MCLARKE]

37 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I suppose you find it worth the £40 a month but i can never work out how i can benefit from the added info that i may or may not get for the outlay. Can you share what benefits you get from it?

I now have data for over 1 million racehorse performances with over 50 pieces of date for each performace, that is over 50 million items of data. I then analyse this to attempt to predict the outcomes of future races. 

For instance on heavy going on the flat horses with odds between 5/1 and 16/1 have won 679 from 6,972 with a LSP of 592 points. I have thousands of statistics like this that I utilise.

It is whether you believe the past is a good predictor of the future ?

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

I keep telling you that horses win races.  Jockeys and trainers stop horses winning they have to do it to fool the handicapper and stay competitive and you will never be privvy to that information. You need to build a data base around horses concentrate on that simple fact and you may well see an improvement in your returns. little example. Lets see if you or anyone else can tell me what the best horse of the last 7 days is.

I agree with you, I don't place too much faith in trainer and jockey stats, all the info is too readily available.

I am surpised then that you recommended backing Fabre's runners on Sunday ?

 

[Zilzalian]

26 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I agree with you, I don't place too much faith in trainer and jockey stats, all the info is too readily available.

I am surpised then that you recommended backing Fabre's runners on Sunday ?

 

Exceptions to the rule Micheal and also class racing as you know is a world of difference to the dross spewed out daily. I have trainers that i follow but i generally do them to small stakes lucky's. My serious bets 95% of the time are pattern races based on Going, Distance, and most importantly for me, Speed figures, and to a lesser degree courses. (Fabre's runners produced a profit Sunday as they have done the last 4 weeks) My point to Equaliser is- if he is even thinking that trainers and jockeys are the road to cutting his ever increasing loses as his method of betting he is i hope you would agree is on a hiding to nothing. His problem as far as i can see is he is one dimensional based around his fear of losing. I was stunned when he said you were spending your winnings on and costing people a lot of money with your lucky 15's. If he is making rash judgements without evidence/checking then he has a problem.

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, BBBC said:

For fits and giggles …

I’ll give you 2 from the big races - Ace impact and White Birch (poorly placed in the Derby to challenge and may need further)

Ace Impacts performance was like something i have never seen before, the speed figure was gob smacking even topspeed in the RP has it huge, I have done speed figures for 30 years and i have never seen anything like that before ever not even close to it. Its 9/1 for the arc if it runs (he said thats the target) it wins in my book. i have had £50 quid on and will be backing it every time i win a bit, my aim is to get at least £300 on. My only caution is only based on losing if its a NR. Unbelievably that donkey of O'briens is fav.

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I keep telling you that horses win races.  Jockeys and trainers stop horses winning they have to do it to fool the handicapper and stay competitive and you will never be privvy to that information. You need to build a data base around horses concentrate on that simple fact and you may well see an improvement in your returns. little example. Lets see if you or anyone else can tell me what the best horse of the last 7 days is.

Ace Impact

I know the horse has to win the race, however, owners and trainers want the best jockeys on their horses.  It is a nightmare to find the so-called best horse in most races because of all the tricks that the trainers get up to on most race days.  By focussing on a handful of jockey bookings it narrows down the research to find daily winners.  I am not talking about waiting for a thoroughbred horse to come along in a big race, I am talking about trying to find some winners on a daily basis among all the riff raff that is on the menu.

I find it hard to try and find a best horse that will win an ordinary race. I feel that I have a chance if I focus on the ones that the trainers are putting the best jockeys on

[Zilzalian]

49 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Ace Impact

I know the horse has to win the race, however, owners and trainers want the best jockeys on their horses.  It is a nightmare to find the so-called best horse in most races because of all the tricks that the trainers get up to on most race days.  By focussing on a handful of jockey bookings it narrows down the research to find daily winners.  I am not talking about waiting for a thoroughbred horse to come along in a big race, I am talking about trying to find some winners on a daily basis among all the riff raff that is on the menu.

I find it hard to try and find a best horse that will win an ordinary race. I feel that I have a chance if I focus on the ones that the trainers are putting the best jockeys on

How many Jockeys or trainers get 4 winners in a day jockeys can only ride 7 horses a day ok trainers can have a good few horses but you try picking which horse Fahey or Johnson will win with? Your whole approach is wrong, Told you before if you don't change your thinking you will carry on racking up those losses. it is easy to find the best horse in the race, in handicaps its number 1 on the card the hard bit is knowing if they will win or not, i know the fastest horse in any given race but i got to know when to leave them alone until everything or almost everything is in my favour. how many horses have you got in your notebook? now be honest.

[The Equaliser]

7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

How many Jockeys or trainers get 4 winners in a day jockeys can only ride 7 horses a day ok trainers can have a good few horses but you try picking which horse Fahey or Johnson will win with? Your whole approach is wrong, Told you before if you don't change your thinking you will carry on racking up those losses. it is easy to find the best horse in the race, in handicaps its number 1 on the card the hard bit is knowing if they will win or not, i know the fastest horse in any given race but i got to know when to leave them alone until everything or almost everything is in my favour. how many horses have you got in your notebook? now be honest.

Methinks you are being a little unfair.  You know as well as I do that you back mediocre horses throughout any one week.  I seem to recall you writing the other day that you had quite a few £25 singles bets.  These were not all in classic races. 

Anyway, I get very annoyed when I am persuaded that I am backing the best horse as I did with Brave Knight in the 4.35 at Leicester yesterday and one of my favourite jockeys slaughters it in a race as did Oisin Murphy on Fairbanks by 8.5 lengths.  The market had it sussed because it went off at 2/1.  The truth is no one really knows until the race is won which horse is going to perform extremely well and if one is lucky enough to back the winner.  

I use a pool of top jockeys and apprentices for starters and sometimes top trainers.  I then do the following in an attempt to find the horse most suited to the race.  Check for Class, Distance, Course, Surface, and Going. I then see if the horse appears to be an improver and battler.  I check the possible selections with a number of top tipsters and back the horse I think will win.  If I am missing out on checking something significant, please let me know.

How much will you have on Ace Impact when it next runs?

[Bang on]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

How many Jockeys or trainers get 4 winners in a day jockeys can only ride 7 horses a day ok trainers can have a good few horses but you try picking which horse Fahey or Johnson will win with? Your whole approach is wrong, Told you before if you don't change your thinking you will carry on racking up those losses. it is easy to find the best horse in the race, in handicaps its number 1 on the card the hard bit is knowing if they will win or not, i know the fastest horse in any given race but i got to know when to leave them alone until everything or almost everything is in my favour. how many horses have you got in your notebook? now be honest.

I agree with "How many Jockeys or trainers get 4 winners in a day jockeys can only ride 7 horses a day". I'm sure the other day that Harry Cobden had 6 rides at a course where his strike rate is 31%, he should have managed 2 winners based upon that stat, but only managed 1.. and I think that was odds on.

I think that @The Equaliser is part of the way there, better jockeys make fewer mistakes, the problem is that can sometimes be reflected in the price. 

[MCLARKE]

11 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

My point to Equaliser is- if he is even thinking that trainers and jockeys are the road to cutting his ever increasing loses as his method of betting he is i hope you would agree is on a hiding to nothing.

I agree, they play no part in my betting with the exception of claiming jockeys which I often exclude from my systems

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Methinks you are being a little unfair.  You know as well as I do that you back mediocre horses throughout any one week.  I seem to recall you writing the other day that you had quite a few £25 singles bets.  These were not all in classic races. 

Anyway, I get very annoyed when I am persuaded that I am backing the best horse as I did with Brave Knight in the 4.35 at Leicester yesterday and one of my favourite jockeys slaughters it in a race as did Oisin Murphy on Fairbanks by 8.5 lengths.  The market had it sussed because it went off at 2/1.  The truth is no one really knows until the race is won which horse is going to perform extremely well and if one is lucky enough to back the winner.  

I use a pool of top jockeys and apprentices for starters and sometimes top trainers.  I then do the following in an attempt to find the horse most suited to the race.  Check for Class, Distance, Course, Surface, and Going. I then see if the horse appears to be an improver and battler.  I check the possible selections with a number of top tipsters and back the horse I think will win.  If I am missing out on checking something significant, please let me know.

How much will you have on Ace Impact when it next runs?

Well how about this for where you go "significantly" wrong- what you do is  you put the horse last instead of first. Lets say you fancy a horse, back it and if the other criteria supports it then back it to higher stakes. Back to what you said Who/what persuaded you? Nothing persuades or dissuades me apart from myself. Best strategy for you in my opinion is stick to 4 horses a day exclude faves and max £6 stakes= 20p L15 and divide the other £3 into your 2 biggest price horses to £1.50. Said before try it for a month to see if your losses reduce if you get a treble by my reckoning it will wipe out your total loses for this year. The real biggie is stop being scared of losing it is stopping you from winning.

As for ace impact it will probably be no price for me to back i am hoping to mop up as much of the 8/1 or 9/1 before it runs, the same strategy i use for many of my anti post bets as shown for Corach Rambler in the Grand national Not a great betting proposition in such a huge lottery type race so i was conservative £30 on at 20/1 and £25 at 10/1. i mopped up 20/1 on 6 different occasions so every time i had a bit of a win i backed it, on the day it opened up 10/1 so i had a bit on that as well. i am also looking at Novel Legend in the Northumberland plate at around 14/1.