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Racing chat-monday 1st May


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520 curr 

Nordic passage  8.6 11/1 

Midnight fire  8.4 5/1 

Little,queenie  8.1 20/1 

Rated a few races but nothing interesting apart from this race where these 3 are quite a bit clear of rest .....so I'll try 6pt win midnight ....4pt wins other 2 ..plus forecasts all 3 

Edited by richard-westwood
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A lot of little races to get the old grey matter around.

Two which have caught my attention.

Warwick 1.30

A small maiden hurdle with some serial bridesmaids but some decent runners nonetheless.

Good work 

Win

Makes his uk hurdle debut after a string of placed efforts in chases including a decent second in a class three. The key to his chances is the fact that he has regularly travelled well over the three miles. A search of at the races reveals that he has won a trotting race in France. Equidia though shows he had a staying on second in a hurdle race in France too. So he is very well schooled indeed. Toby Wynne's five pound claim puts him near the bottom of the field.

Hard work for a 5/2 shot!

 

2.25.

Paddington

win

Duke of leggagh

win without Paddington 

I really like this little bear. Entered up still in all the races and this run determines where he goes. The timing suggests he's an ascot horse. But O'Brien has done a quick turnaround before, but the Irish guineas looks as likely too. Gave Duke of leggagh 16lbs last time and now reoposes off levels.

Duke of leggagh, an in and out performer who may yet cause a big stir given his experience over these bluebloods. Certainly the horses he's run against have won their maidens and reversed form with him paradoxically, so there may yet be a run in him. Bold discovery and unbeaten drumroll have to be up there though. The only way duke of leggagh can get involved here at the weights, is if it gets tactical. He's the only handicapper and isn't entered up at all.

 

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Hi guys, battery issues last night so the daily acca has not come through on main page. Here it is for today though. Good luck if following.

3-05 Kempton

AJP KINGDOM (4/5) found just one too strong last time out at Ludlow. That run came on the back of a 147-day break and he is most likely to improve for it. He went down on his sword against Safe Voyage and brings all the right attributes into this battle. The extended two-and-a-half-mile trip seems to suit him well and once again Conor Brace is in the saddle doing the steering. Fergal O’Brien looks to have found a suitable opportunity to finally get a win into this up and coming six-year-old.

4-15 Kempton

QUEENS ROCK (7/4) reacted well to the bout of wind surgery she had prior to her last racecourse appearance. She put in a commanding performance to see off the attentions of Maid On The Moon by almost seven lengths and will prove difficult to beat if in the same mood here. The daughter of Shirocco would benefit from any rain that was to fall. She still looks relatively well treated and hails from a top class yard so has to warrant consideration.

4-29 Windsor

CROESO CYMRAEG (7/2) went so close at Leicester last time and was only just nailed on the line by Duke Of Verona. That was his first run back in almost seven months and with similar conditions here, he should be fit enough to hold on this time. Joshua Bryan was the last jockey to win on this nine-year-old gelding trained by Harry Evans and it looks a positive move to have him back on today. He remains on the same mark that he last won off and he has to be high on any shortlist this afternoon.


TK

 

 

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Kanzawa 10.05

No Look

Each way

The only horse in this line up with no recorded win. Gates from number 8 which is no impediment to getting home at this track.

On third listed yard and signs of coming to hand latest. String of good performances over the whole of may last year. May not have a chance here and will be priced accordingly.

* No look second at 11/1 from opening 16/1 they don't normally shorten, so this one was expected to go well and beat a host of course winners. Five lengths from the winner, but quite irrelevant in relation to distance in front of the rest. More like that to come hopefully....

Edited by sporting sam
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Patents. 

253. Bev. Zuffolo     6/1

4.03. Bev. Eponina    10/3

4.38. Bev. Eurythmics      11/2

stk. 3.50   rtn. 169.50

----------------

5.39. Win. Galilaeus         13/8

5.48. Bev. Khal                  7/2

5.32. War. Regal Renaissance   13/2.

stk.3.50    rtn. 84.23.

Good luck all. 

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Funabashi 11am

Potential real

Baby Ash

Both win.

I cannot pretend to be an authority on Japanese racing.

But the form seems to stack up.

You win some and lose some but the much bigger odds are a great help and a knowledge of physics. ( A perception of a knowledge of physics).

Edited by sporting sam
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Funabashi 1135

Mykonos flavour

One more effort

Both each way

Very very tricky race to unravel and little confidence here.

Small stakes only.

One more effort in a group of runners from the same race and he went closest with a third on that occasion.

Nice to select the winner in previous race baby Ash win easily by a wide margin have won at 100/1 the previous race by a similar margin and stepped in trip.

Edited by sporting sam
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35 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

Funabashi 1135

Mykonos flavour

One more effort

Both each way

Very very tricky race to unravel and little confidence here.

Small stakes only.

One more effort in a group of runners from the same race and he went closest with a third on that occasion.

Nice to select the winner in previous race baby Ash win easily by a wide margin have won at 100/1 the previous race by a similar margin and stepped in trip.

Oh so very close with both runners.

One more effort beaten 3 lengths by a horse dropping in trip. Mykonos flavour beaten a neck back in fourth @ 80/1. Disappointing not to pick out the distance dropper.

only seven runners in the 1210 so may look at the final contest at 1250.

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12.50

Funabashi

Tauro shun

Each way 

Peisha Saint

Win 

Peisha Saint

Brings a decent level to the track.

Beat a good marker in Trenchtown (previous winner) here on last run. Trenchtown subsequently bolted up back on home track (urwara) and in the process had  sun Binghamton ( tipped up here at 33/1) back in third . Tauro shun won here on may 6th last year and runs in a win cycle mentioned previously.

Final picks which have yielded first winner of the month and good places.

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9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

2.23 Bath Dercol a pt win at 8.0 (if it will go in the stalls)

Wasted half a point on that one

L15 & Acca on Daily L15=2 pts

3.19 Win Linelight (OM) 0.25 ew at 25/1

4.29 Win Richard P smith 0.50 w at 17/2

5.04 Win Silver Bubble (OM) 0.50 win at 15/2 and Gold Souk 0.5  win at 8/1

5.39 Win Alumnus 0.50 w at 9/1

4.57 War Fancy Stuff (BA/DS) 0.50 w at 15/2

4.15 Km Magistrato (HC/PN) 0.50 w at 10/1 and Move It Like Minnie (STD/NTD) 0.50 w at 8/1

4.50 Km Dolos 0.50 w at 5/1  (PN/HC) and Jay Jay Reilly 0.50 w at 11/2 (DS)

5.25 Km Peace of Rome (NdB/NH) 0.50 w at 8/1

3.33 Bath Fossos (BL/ML) 0.50 w at 15/2

4.08 Bath Ermin Street (BL) 0.5 w at 18/1

5.18 Bath Aurophobia (BL) 0.50 w at 7/2 and Athenes Kiss (HD/AW) 0.50 w at 12/1

5.53 Bath Blue Collar Lad (BL) 0.50 win at 16/1

5.20 Curr Nordic Passage 0.50 w at 16/1 and Midnight Fury 0.50 w at 10/3

Total points today = 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Typical bank holiday results. Chose the wrong Skelton horse for my selection and missed OM's winner .  No winners, one non-runner, hence an 11.50 loss = MTD and YTD - 80.85

I think I will be far better off putting my jockey/trainer selections in L15's in future and just having win bets only on my strongest fancies with a maximum of four selections

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
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Irish hunter chase.

Down royal

4.30

Sifaka

Each way

Trainer has won for this race for last two years. Puts regular jockey's son on board and he's an up and coming rider who knows his way round.

Horse "pulled up" last run over points and has first time headgear on for this rules debut. Most likely ready and wiling....

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This is a physics based selection 

The Curragh 5.20

Greek flower

Each way

 

Midnight fire

Win

Last year two year's winning stalls provide the draw data, to select Greek flower. Last year's winner midnight fire is drawn right across the other side of the track. The physics of the draw puts high and low together and this runner could kick on from anywhere. Greek flower also positioned to benefit from absentees but it all depends on where the speed comes from on the soft going. Stall 5 being a regular "lucky stall" here.....

For that obscure reason

A small each way on

GALLOW HILL

each way 

 

Edited by sporting sam
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