Racing Chat - Saturday 15th April

[The Brigadier]

The final day of three of the Grand National meeting of 2023 and it’s time for the big one with the forty runner Grand National due off at 17:15. The ground is likely to ride on the slow side with the official call as good to soft on the Mildmay course and good to soft (soft in places) on the National course. There’s some fine racing to support the big race and here’s my look at the day’s racing.

 

Aintree 13:45

With the likely absence of Banbridge we only have five runners for today opener and a very warm favourite in the shape of Nicky Henderson’s Jonbon. The grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase should be going the way of the Seven Barrows based favourite. He’s head and shoulders above his opponents on form and will be at very tight odds. JP McManus’s seven year old won three novice chases en route to finishing runner up in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham to Willie Mullins’ El Fabiolo. His main opponent today is Laura Morgan’s Notlongtillmay who himself ran a stormer at Cheltenham in finishing runner up in the Turners Novices’ Chase. That puts him within 7lb of the favourite but it will be a big surprise if Jonbon doesn’t win well here under regular rider Aidan Coleman.

Too short to back but one for accumulative bets if that’s the way you want to go.

 

Aintree 14:25

A bumper maximum field of twenty two runners assemble for this valuable 3M class 1 handicap hurdle. Tony Martin’s top weight Good Time Jonny ran out a cosy winner of the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final at Cheltenham having four of these behind him and if none the worse for that effort 30 days ago, under just a 5lb rise, should be competitive again today with Liam McKenna claiming 5lb retaining the ride. Mill Green was back in 3rd at Cheltenham and also filled that same place in this last year. Nicky Henderson’s charge would hold each way claims but is the oldest in the field here and surely will have no improvement to come.

Paul Nicholls’ Outlaw Peter is an interesting runner now stepping back up to three miles. The stable are in good form and he should be competitive here. The Skelton’s West Balboa hasn’t been seen since winning the Lanzarote at Kempton in February under Bridget Andrews and is trying three miles for the first time, another with a chance.

Last year’s victor Party Business is back to defend his title off of a 5lb higher mark and shouldn’t be ruled out also.

A wide open and competitive renewal with maybe the top weight Good Time Jonny still a bit ahead of the handicapper and I’ll chance him.

 

GOOD TIME JONNY 1 point each way @ 13/2 1/5th 12345 William Hill

 

Aintree 15:00

The grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle is up next and has attracted fifteen useful novices. It maybe worth giving Paul Nicholls promising six year old Hermes Allen another chance after flopping at Cheltenham 31 days ago. He was a well backed favourite for the Ballymore that day but was soundly beaten back in 6th place some 21L behind the winner Impaire Et Passe. His trainer said he thought the horse was unsuited by the tacky soft ground that day. He looked a horse with immense talent when cantering through the mud to beat You Wear It Well (Cheltenham Festival winner since and re-opposes today) at Newbury in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury on New Years Eve.

He’s taking on some useful novices here as one would expect including the Willie Mullins trained Dark Raven who runs in the double green silks of Munir and Souede. He was a fine 6th in the Supreme at Cheltenham and is stepping up in distance today. Only 2lb officially behind Hermes Allen is one of the two Gordon Elliott runners Irish Point. He stayed away from Cheltenham but is a definite player on his best form. If Hermes Allen was coming here straight from his Newbury win he would be pretty short so let’s forgive his one moderate effort and back him to bounce back under Harry Cobden

 

HERMES ALLEN 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Aintree 15:35

Next up is the 3M 149 yards Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle where we have ten runners facing the starter. This years crop of staying hurdlers seem much of a muchness with just under four lengths covering the first five home in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham last month with Sire Du Berlais a shock 33/1 winner from Dashel Drasher (beaten 3/4L) with Flooring Porter (3 1/2L) and Home By The Lee (3 3/4L) close up behind. Sire Du Berlais also took this prize a year ago at 16/1 and has to be a serious contender again this time around for Gordon Elliott and JP McManus.

In the same ownership is Nicky Henderson’s Champ who missed Cheltenham and as one who has a very good record fresh has to be taken very seriously although he was very disappointing in this contest last year having run at Cheltenham previously. I expect a better run from his this time around coming here a fresher horse. Henderson also has a major player in the only mare in the field in Marie’s Rock who’s connections skipped the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham to run instead in the Mares Hurdle where in a race where there was no early pace took a keen hold and ending up well beaten. She’s stepping up in distance to three miles for the first time today and that may well bring about improvement. She receives the valuable 7lb mares allowance and I’ll take her to take this competitive hurdle contest with a small saver on Henderson’s other runner Champ.

 

MARIE’S ROCK 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill

CHAMP 1/2 point win 8/1 bet365

 

Aintree 16:15

Fifteen face the starter for this valuable class 1 3m 1F William Hill Handicap Chase. It actually doesn’t look as strong as in previous years with four horses racing from out of the handicap. Karl Philippe ran ok at Cheltenham in the Ultima and steps up in trip here which may suit Harry Redknapp’s gelding. Others in which a chance include the first time tongue tied Skelton runner Midnight River who was a bit disappointing at Cheltenham and still has stamina to prove likewise Gary Moore’s Nassalam. One horse I do like is the prolific winner Kinondo Kwetu trained by Sam England and who ran up a sequence of six victories last year rising some 32lb in the process. Following a break he re-appeared in the three runner Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot in February where he was bitterly disappointing finishing a well beaten last of three. He’s better than that and the fact that he’s had a wind operation and races with his tongue tied down here points to the fact that something wind related was probably the issue at Ascot. He’s won on this Mildmay course before and I’ll chance him here each way with enhanced places.

 

KINONDO KWETU 1 point each way @ 12/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234

 

Aintree 17:15

The big one. This years Grand National looks as open as ever and my original ante-post fancy The Big Dog still stands as having a decent each way chance as an out and out stayer. Last year’s third Delta Work also makes my short list having won the X-Country at Cheltenham last time out. The third member of my staking plan rests with Irish challenger Vanillier who ran so well last time. For a full comprehensive look at every runner check out my Grand National preview which is available on the main news site.

 

THE BIG DOG 1 point each way @ 25/1 1/5th 123456 (already advised)

VANILLIER 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 1/5th 123456 bet365

DELTA WORK 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 123456 bet365

 

Aintree 18:20

The final race of the exhilarating three day Grand National Festival is the twenty runner 2M 209 yards Grade 2 NH Flat Race. A tough contest with plenty of promising young horses on show. The level is set by the Willie Mullins trained Captain Cody who ran a fine 6th in the Cheltenham bumper (Fiercely Proud well held). Mullins also saddles Blizzard Of Oz for Messrs Souede and Munir who will be ridden by Patrick Mullins following his Cork win last month.

Paul Nicholls has had a blinding season with his bumper horses and his representative here Centara is of interest. He scooted up on his racecourse debut winning by 5L at Taunton and could be useful. Harry Cobden takes the ride. Gordon Elliott sets a poser by saddling a brace of promising unbeaten geldings in the four year old Samui who’s won at Naas in February and Pour Les Filles a winner of an Irish point to point as well as a Leopardstown bumper on Boxing Day.

The race looks wide open with so many unknowns and I suggest stakes be kept to a minimum with maybe a small each way bet on one of the Elliott runners in Pour Les Filles.

 

POURLES FILLES 1 point each way @ 15/2 1/5th 1234 888 Sport

[kensland]

Patent. 

2.45. Yarm. Cresta Cat         22/1       unpl

3.00. Aint. Dark Raven          7/2          fell

5.15. Aint. Gaillard Du Mesnil    11/1     3rd 

stk. 0.25. ew. 3.50.    rtn. 446.61.

Good luck all. 

Edited April 15, 2023 by kensland

[Zilzalian]

Aint This A Shame?

 

So you have done a good few days/weeks work/analysis on the Grand National you have formulated your decision based on all the available data and your personal knowledge, you marry that against the Bookies odds on the race and come to a conclusion of which horse you are going to put your money on. But wait the bookies are watching and maybe there is an imbalance in their liabilities so what do they do? Well they could invent a new favourite to divert some of those liabilities elsewhere so what do they do? Well they could invent that new favourite on quite simple criteria like say for example a viable created “plunge” placed on a popular jockey like say Rachael Blackmore that will appeal to all the girlies and a good few grannies and there you have it, a new favourite at the same time as you have created/sewn doubt into all those people that have already decided on who they would back. Push one or two horse out a point or two at the same time as slicing big chunks out of the market. Three joint favourites they cant all win can they? I wonder how many will back Aint that a shame because of this little bit of hyping? Okay it might win but based on all known evidence of both punters and bookies three days ago it was a 20/1 shot, now aint that a shame you only get 8/1 instead of 20/1. I'm just saying, It really would be a shame if you changed your mind and left your winner back in the data or spent extra money on a "saver."

[Tedthewolf]

1pt e/w ENJOY DALLEN  40/1 6p bog

1pt e/w THE BIG  BREAKAWAY  40/1 6p bog

[Sporting Sam]

6.30

Sha Tin

Champion instinct

win

Made an eye catching debut when a big price runner up.

Top Aussie jockey Hugh Bowman rides.

Lucky planet

Each way

Debut maker, from stall 4 creates favourable impression with a good barrier trial performance on dirt. Well bred and winning trainer applies lots of headgear here.

 

[Sporting Sam]

Japanese experiment

Fukushima 7.20

Meisho Mitsuyasu

Each way

Very much an outsider but a winner at this time last year and well drawn.

[Sporting Sam]

38 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

Japanese experiment

Fukushima 7.20

Meisho Mitsuyasu

Each way

Very much an outsider but a winner at this time last year and well drawn.

Another winning selection 3rd at 18/1 despite no form to speak of.

 

Sha Tin 8.05

Horsesain bolt

Win

A winner for Mick halford twice over a mile in Ireland when known as karashi. Screaming out for that trip, but placed several times now over seven furlongs and adapting well now. Lovely Aga Khan bred horse better over a mile but has to adapt as few opportunities to go further in low grade races.

Millennium falcon

Each way 

Slowly coming to hand. No win since February 22, but down to that mark today and well drawn to take a hand here.

 

[calva decoy]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Aint This A Shame?

 

So you have done a good few days/weeks work/analysis on the Grand National you have formulated your decision based on all the available data and your personal knowledge, you marry that against the Bookies odds on the race and come to a conclusion of which horse you are going to put your money on. But wait the bookies are watching and maybe there is an imbalance in their liabilities so what do they do? Well they could invent a new favourite to divert some of those liabilities elsewhere so what do they do? Well they could invent that new favourite on quite simple criteria like say for example a viable created “plunge” placed on a popular jockey like say Rachael Blackmore that will appeal to all the girlies and a good few grannies and there you have it, a new favourite at the same time as you have created/sewn doubt into all those people that have already decided on who they would back. Push one or two horse out a point or two at the same time as slicing big chunks out of the market. Three joint favourites they cant all win can they? I wonder how many will back Aint that a shame because of this little bit of hyping? Okay it might win but based on all known evidence of both punters and bookies three days ago it was a 20/1 shot, now aint that a shame you only get 8/1 instead of 20/1. I'm just saying, It really would be a shame if you changed your mind and left your winner back in the data or spent extra money on a "saver."

Good shout @Zilzalian , I can't seem to work out why it could be favourite & as for the girly & granny picks Cloudy Glen , Sam Brown , Velvet Elvis , Eva's Oskar & Mr Incredible will all be popular as will Back On The Lash for the jack the lad types my main worry for those punters is how many will be lured into a bookies & backing one of the above each way & only getting 4 places .

In other news , there's a Yarmouth card today 😯 never known a Yarmouth card same day as the National .

[Sporting Sam]

Japan experiment 

Final selections of a very long day of travelling

Good luck with all your selections and enjoy what will be an eventful grand national meeting hopefully for the right reasons.

9.15

Kochi 

RHEIN MESSAGE 

GEMMINIDS

Both each way

Sha tin

9.05

GOLDEN BULL 

WIN

always on the premises.

Should win today with Zac Purton on board for first time.

GOLDEN WARSTEAD

each way

Another winning Irish miler.

Two wins for Ger Lyons when know as ozymandis

Struggling with this trip but may take a hand.

Edited April 15, 2023 by sporting sam

[black rabbit]

Mr Coffee                                                 1/4 pt   ew           65/1     National

Good Time Jonny                                2 25 C/               1/20th   of a pt win     9/1

Flooring Porter                                    3 35 C/               1/20th   of a pt win      7/1

Daily  Tiger                                          4 15 C/                1/40th of a  pt ew     33/1

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 159.45 pts

Edited April 15, 2023 by black rabbit

[kensland]

Patent. 

1.55. Chep. Young Buck       9/2     unpl

5.30. Wolv. Derbydinks        5/2       unpl

2.15. Newc. Court at Slip      9/2       2nd 

stk.3.50         rtn. 94.56

Good luck all. 

Edited April 15, 2023 by kensland

[Nigwilliam]

2 ew's in the 515 for me with skybet ,7pl.

Roi Mage  --   Felix de Giles.      7th

Mr Coffey --   Nico de Boinville.     8th

Edited April 15, 2023 by Nigwilliam
Result

[pa4410]

Aintree 

2:25 - Outlaw Peter 12/1

4:15 - Shakem Up'arry 7/1

5:15 Le Milos 14/1

Chepstow

2:35 - Sweet Magic 2/1

3:10 - Walk In The Wild 5/2

[Sporting Sam]

Just one more thing

Sire du Berlais has a good chance if not bouncing from Cheltenham of retaining his tite here.

On all known form holds flooring porter and winning Cheltenham stayers have a 5/7 record in this race since it was upgraded. 

In the biggee,

CAREFULLY SELECTED is not one of the leading lights but has the exceptional young jockey on board who won twice at Cheltenham. He also had the presence of mind and the preserve of youth to go out and ride two winners last night at Ballinrobe. That is the mark of a future champion jockey. Looks to have been smuggled in here under the old radar by Willie Mullins.

CAREFULLY SELECTED

Each way

Grand national

Watch the odds as the wicked bookies try to slash everything in the hour leading up to the race. They really are shameless in their manipulation of the odds. But I think this just might be one of the ones they push out so I've taken current odds and also left one bet on carefully selected each way at sp.

Good luck.

Edited April 15, 2023 by sporting sam

[azzybear]

gaillard due mensil 5.15 our power 5.15 ew 

[fd1972uk]

Dashel Dasher is a cert to come 2nd, you just need to find the winner for a 1 2 forecast, lol

[Sporting Sam]

1250

Kochi

BASILEUS 

Each way

In the departure lounge!!

Form just franked in the previous race with runner up coming second again.

Edited April 15, 2023 by sporting sam

[The Equaliser]

L15

1.55 Chep Skinflint 7/2

2.50 Nc Word Has It 9/2 (My PL Nap)

3.00 Aint Hermes Allen 10/3

6.20 Aint Blizzard of Oz 9/2

1 x 0.20 win L15 = 3 pts = poss ret 247.66

---------------------------------------------------

singles:

2.50 Nc Word Has It 2 pts win at 6.2 and Thereisnodoubt 1 pt win at 5.81

5.15 Aint Corrach Rambler 1 pt win at 10/1, Le Milos 0.50 win at 16/1 and Delta work 0.50 win at 10/1

Total stakes = 9.50 incl other L15 on Daily 15

[Le Doyen]

2.25 An Tailliur  10/1    7 Places

[Le Doyen]

In the "big one"

 

Aint That A Shame   9/1

Fortescue                100/1

                                              Both 7 Places

[fd1972uk]

Delayed, but off soon.

Had decent day, apart from 335, meh.

Good luck for national anyway.

Then onto Tampa Bay and maybe a couple of other races.

[calva decoy]

5 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Delayed, but off soon.

Had decent day, apart from 335, meh.

Good luck for national anyway.

Then onto Tampa Bay and maybe a couple of other races.

It'll be dark before they start 😆

Some good racing at Keeneland tonight with C.Appleby sending a few over W.Buick & Dettori a few rides .

[fd1972uk]

Great run, well fortunately had it, but unfortunately had took it a while back so only 6s, would have preferred vanillier to catch it, but can't complain.

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

L15

1.55 Chep Skinflint 7/2

2.50 Nc Word Has It 9/2 (My PL Nap)

3.00 Aint Hermes Allen 10/3

6.20 Aint Blizzard of Oz 9/2

1 x 0.20 win L15 = 3 pts = poss ret 247.66

---------------------------------------------------

singles:

2.50 Nc Word Has It 2 pts win at 6.2 and Thereisnodoubt 1 pt win at 5.81

5.15 Aint Corrach Rambler 1 pt win at 10/1, Le Milos 0.50 win at 16/1 and Delta work 0.50 win at 10/1

Total stakes = 9.50 incl other L15 on Daily 15

RESULTS UPDATE

Lousy run by my nap bet; so much for the Big 3 and being napped by the RP.  Should have had Corach Rambler as the Nap.  Anyway, 2 Returns, 1 on the win bet and two winners in one of the L15's.  I made it 6.05 but was paid 7.70 by Betfred so I won't complain.  Profit on the day = 9.70.  Did a lot better today rather than disastrous day yesterday.  My MTD is now -49.72 and YTD -99.54