Racing Chat-Tuesday 21st February.

[kensland]

Taunton. 

Double. 

2.00. Fame and Fun     4/1      2nd 

3.05. Premiumaccess     10/1    3rd 

singles & double. 

stk 6.00.      rtn.  142.00.

Good luck all. 

Edited February 21, 2023 by kensland

[jonjo]

Kateira has an entry in the Ballymore (50/1), the way she hammered the opposition last time says that maybe she is good enough to take her place in the field at the Festival. Happy to get 1.84 for this one tonight in the 2.45 Market Rasen......................WON as an odds on shot should win, nice and easy?

Mixed Wave won nicely last time out from out of the handicap. The form of his last two races has worked out well with the runner up coming out and winning next time up, prior to that in a race where he finished fourth the winner and third won again next time up. Currently around the 3.75 on Betfair.......drfting, out to 4.2, there will be a lay off price in running for this one...........................................................went off at a Bfsp of 3.96 and nice and easy, never headed.?

 

Good luck tomorrow everyone.

Edited February 21, 2023 by jonjo

[kensland]

Southwell. 

Single. 

7.00. Amy Santiago          7/1          14/1       1st 

stk 5.00.          rtn 40.00.

Good luck all. 

Edited February 21, 2023 by kensland

[Sporting Sam]

Taunton

2 pm 

PRESGRAVE

Each way ( five places)

Not seen since November when beaten off by move it like Minnie. Winner crossed path of presgrave causing jockey to stop momentarily losing second in the process in the run in. Winner won better race nto before third latest in class two. 

Bryony Frost in the saddle today who shares the rides equally on this horse. Bottom weight which puts her two stone in hand of the top weight. Well out of the handicap, but last run was first placed effort and form franked by several runners who were behind that day and race was run over course and distance.

Ex Joseph O'Brien flat horse sold at a massive discount from original 80k price. Taken a long time to come to hand since going hurdling for to this yard as if often the case with his discards.

Career best last run and chance if fit and ready.

********************************************

A tonne of research down the pan! Led to first circuit and tailed off rapidly. The equivalent of winning a circuit too early.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by sporting sam

[The Equaliser]

Lucky 15

2.00 Taun Fame And Fun 4/1 (1 pt win at 4/1)

2.15 M/Ras Presenting A Queen 4/1 (1 pt win at 6.0)

3.30 Taun Finest View 9/2 (1 pt win at 8.6)

7.30 Sou Urban Dandy 7/2

1 x 0.20 win L15 = 3 pts poss ret 257.20

6 points

Back soon with EW L15

EW L15

2.30 Taun The Rain King 12/1

4.00 Taun Cowboy 33/1

6.00 Sou End Zone 12/1 (0.50ew at 12/1 4TBP)

8.00 Sou Brandy Station 12/1

1 x 0.20 ew L15= 6.00 poss ret 19,354.12

Total stakes = 13 points today

-------------------------------------------------

I meant to place a win bet on Urban Dandy earlier @The Brigadier's Nap. My bets not going that well so I'm going to have 2 pts ew at 4/1 with 4TBP as an extra offer.  Looks a decent bet even if all the money as highlighted by @jonjois correct for Rossmore Nation.  Won't lose too much if it gets placed and doesn't win

17 points staked today

Haha, I recently said that spending too much on singles bets in any racing day is a bad idea.  Urban Dandy couldn't even get 4th

I will have 1pt ew on Brandy station in the 8.00 at 14/1 4TBP; I hope that an outsider will fare better than a strongly fancied second favourite

19 points staked today

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, at least Brandy Station got 3rd.  This gave me the place win and a place double on the L15 for 3.80 +3.67.  Made my loss on the day 11.53.  My MTD is now -52.91 & YTD is -76.61 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[jonjo]

The money continues for Rossmore Nation, a Stable Switcher, 3.4 and still it comes, was 5.7 last night..................the money continued and he went off at a Bfsp of 2.65 and WON nicely.?

Edited February 21, 2023 by jonjo

[cannotbebeat]

Southwell

5.30 - Burnish - 3/1

7.00 - Medici Chapel - 5/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[jonjo]

4 hours ago, jonjo said:

The money continues for Rossmore Nation, a Stable Switcher, 3.4 and still it comes, was 5.7 last night.

Won very nicely, nice to get 3.4 ?

[Bang on]

21 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Lucky 15

2.00 Taun Fame And Fun 4/1 (1 pt win at 4/1)

2.15 M/Ras Presenting A Queen 4/1 (1 pt win at 6.0)

3.30 Taun Finest View 9/2 (1 pt win at 8.6)

7.30 Sou Urban Dandy 7/2

1 x 0.20 win L15 = 3 pts poss ret 257.20

6 points

Back soon with EW L15

EW L15

2.30 Taun The Rain King 12/1

4.00 Taun Cowboy 33/1

6.00 Sou End Zone 12/1 (0.50ew at 12/1 4TBP)

8.00 Sou Brandy Station 12/1

1 x 0.20 ew L15= 6.00 poss ret 19,354.12

Total stakes = 13 points today

-------------------------------------------------

I meant to place a win bet on Urban Dandy earlier @The Brigadier's Nap. My bets not going that well so I'm going to have 2 pts ew at 4/1 with 4TBP as an extra offer.  Looks a decent bet even if all the money as highlighted by @jonjois correct for Rossmore Nation.  Won't lose too much if it gets placed and doesn't win

17 points staked today

Haha, I recently said that spending too much on singles bets in any racing day is a bad idea.  Urban Dandy couldn't even get 4th

I will have 1pt ew on Brandy station in the 8.00 at 14/1 4TBP; I hope that an outsider will fare better than a strongly fancied second favourite

19 points staked today

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, at least Brandy Station got 3rd.  This gave me the place win and a place double on the L15 for 3.80 +3.67.  Made my loss on the day 11.53.  My MTD is now -52.91 & YTD is -76.61 

 

You would have lost less doing 8 x 1pt win singles. Whenever you are having a trixie or lucky 15 go pear shaped.. you ALWAYS back the ones still to run as  a 'saver' type bet. This is just chasing losses and never ends well. If you felt so strongly about these selections you may as well just back these and have a larger stake on them. You really need to put the shovel down and evaluate your selections and staking ..  you are already ahead of last years losses. Stop digging and take a look at your selection method.

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Bang on said:

You would have lost less doing 8 x 1pt win singles. Whenever you are having a trixie or lucky 15 go pear shaped.. you ALWAYS back the ones still to run as  a 'saver' type bet. This is just chasing losses and never ends well. If you felt so strongly about these selections you may as well just back these and have a larger stake on them. You really need to put the shovel down and evaluate your selections and staking ..  you are already ahead of last years losses. Stop digging and take a look at your selection method.

You are right to give me a ticking off.  I shouldn't have had 2 pts ew on Urban Dandy.  I did realise my mistake subsequently.  In future I will only increase my stakes the next day when I have won the previous day.  Not sure what you mean by I am losing more than the same time last year.  My spreadsheet shows -112.07 at this time last year.  I have complicated things a bit by switching to longer-priced selections so I guess I will have longer losing runs and my YTD may well increase a bit before I get lucky.  Yes, I do need to focus on my selection method.  I am trying to choose between 3/1 - 9/1 shots for my win L15 and win bets and anything from 7/1 + for my EW L15.  Oddly enough the outsiders are fairing better than the mid-range priced selections atm.  Very many thanks for your comments; always welcome

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, The Equaliser said:

You are right to give me a ticking off.  I shouldn't have had 2 pts ew on Urban Dandy.  I did realise my mistake subsequently.  In future I will only increase my stakes the next day when I have won the previous day.  Not sure what you mean by I am losing more than the same time last year.  My spreadsheet shows -112.07 at this time last year.  I have complicated things a bit by switching to longer-priced selections so I guess I will have longer losing runs and my YTD may well increase a bit before I get lucky.  Yes, I do need to focus on my selection method.  I am trying to choose between 3/1 - 9/1 shots for my win L15 and win bets and anything from 7/1 + for my EW L15.  Oddly enough the outsiders are fairing better than the mid-range priced selections atm.  Very many thanks for your comments; always welcome

Try choosing horses (not odds) it works for me.

[The Equaliser]

6 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Try choosing horses (not odds) it works for me.

Very interesting that you go for Withold in the 7.30 at Kempton.  It has a 4 star rating with Timeform so they expect it to run well.  However, Roger Charlton also has Imperium with James Doyle aboard so I have gone for that one.  I am also a sucker for jockey bookings This is @Alastairs Nap today so let's see what happens.  Good luck with your selection

[Zilzalian]

14 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very interesting that you go for Withold in the 7.30 at Kempton.  It has a 4 star rating with Timeform so they expect it to run well.  However, Roger Charlton also has Imperium with James Doyle aboard so I have gone for that one.  I am also a sucker for jockey bookings This is @Alastairs Nap today so let's see what happens.  Good luck with your selection

Imperium is the best horse in the race but but but it wont win blinkered first time having to go round bends so will run out of steam and get collared and at 4/1 is no bet whereas Withhold now 20/1 is worth a tickle as is Quian at 100/1 best race of the day in my eyes this i could back 4 or 5 in it but Imperium isnt one of them. but but but it may well win the London stayers on allweather finals day, thats when i will back it.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Zilzalian

[The Equaliser]

7 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Imperium is the best horse in the race but but but it wont win blinkered first time having to go round bends so will run out of steam and get collared and at 4/1 is no bet whereas Withhold now 20/1 is worth a tickle as is Quian at 100/1 best race of the day in my eyes this i could back 4 or 5 in it but Imperium isnt one of them. but but but it may well win the London stayers on allweather finals day, thats when i will back it.

Many thanks for sharing your thoughts.  I'd better lay off Imperium now

[Sporting Sam]

Punchestown 3.25

Appian way 

Captain Jimmy

Both win 

Luck like mine!!!

 

 

 

 

[Bang on]

On 2/22/2023 at 2:12 PM, The Equaliser said:

  Not sure what you mean by I am losing more than the same time last year.  My spreadsheet shows -112.07 at this time last year.  

I was looking at a year end loss of around 1pt per day (wasn't your loss around the 365pt mark ?), and as we are only in Feb, you are losing more than 1pt per day..

I am just trying to get you to focus properly. You are 'happy' to lose around 1pt per day, yet are not content with .. trying to WIN 1pt per day. Believe me, that would be an excellent turn around, and a great platform to then press on.

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, Bang on said:

I was looking at a year end loss of around 1pt per day (wasn't your loss around the 365pt mark ?), and as we are only in Feb, you are losing more than 1pt per day..

I am just trying to get you to focus properly. You are 'happy' to lose around 1pt per day, yet are not content with .. trying to WIN 1pt per day. Believe me, that would be an excellent turn around, and a great platform to then press on.

I think the main problem with this punter is that he has collected so many different "ways, methods and or systems" most/all don't work as proofed by his results. His biggest problem therefore is that he just can't bring himself to ditch all/any of them so he ends up switching back and forth cycling through them and getting the same results. He clearly loves to have a bet but is terrified of losing and therein lies another problem, a great example is when i told him that Imperium couldn't win because.... his immediate instinct/reaction was to lay off the bet. some might say that has its merit and i would agree if we were talking about £100's but he deals in pennies. It seems to me that the last thing he actually looks at is the bloody horse, i mean everything else takes precedent Even The brigadier or tedthewolf or richard or jonjo etc etc. He comes on here and checks out what everyone else is doing and bets on those observations the horse seems surplus to requirements. If he spent as much time looking at race cards, results and or races as he does other peoples posts he might then start to use his own eyes and head and pick some gg's of his own based on his own observations which will make a winner all the sweeter for him thus boosting his confidence. But alas i fear he will pick something negative out of this comment and or yours and use it has an excuse instead of taking it all on board and moving forward positively.

[The Equaliser]

20 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I think the main problem with this punter is that he has collected so many different "ways, methods and or systems" most/all don't work as proofed by his results. His biggest problem therefore is that he just can't bring himself to ditch all/any of them so he ends up switching back and forth cycling through them and getting the same results. He clearly loves to have a bet but is terrified of losing and therein lies another problem, a great example is when i told him that Imperium couldn't win because.... his immediate instinct/reaction was to lay off the bet. some might say that has its merit and i would agree if we were talking about £100's but he deals in pennies. It seems to me that the last thing he actually looks at is the bloody horse, i mean everything else takes precedent Even The brigadier or tedthewolf or richard or jonjo etc etc. He comes on here and checks out what everyone else is doing and bets on those observations the horse seems surplus to requirements. If he spent as much time looking at race cards, results and or races as he does other peoples posts he might then start to use his own eyes and head and pick some gg's of his own based on his own observations which will make a winner all the sweeter for him thus boosting his confidence. But alas i fear he will pick something negative out of this comment and or yours and use it has an excuse instead of taking it all on board and moving forward positively.

There are more than 350 horses declared to run tomorrow in the UK.  "It seems to me that the last thing he actually looks at is the bloody horse" Hence it is very difficult for me to decide which horse or horses to look at.   It makes perfect sense to me to start a racing day to check out what other respected members have chosen and THEN check out their selections by checking through the racecards of the Racing Post. At The Races and Race Advisor.  Nothing would thrill me more than to get a Lucky 15 up with a mixture of PL member's selections.  Hence, I do check out the horses via the race cards and then make a choice (usually the wrong ones) on which horses to back.  I get very confused with all the information about different horses in a race.  And, even if I look at one your postings identifying a specific horse for say a Nap selection I still can't see how you arrived at it when I look at it through the racecards. The only thing I could see about "Withold" was that it had a 4 star rating on Timeform.  Imperium had James Doyle aboard, so I thought that would have the best chance on Jockey bookings.  Of course you were right and Withold ran a great race to be second.  It is all tricky stuff this racing lark.  I have changed and am looking beyond the favourites but it will take time for me to get my selection and staking method right.  Bear with me.         

 

[Zilzalian]

9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

There are more than 350 horses declared to run tomorrow in the UK.  "It seems to me that the last thing he actually looks at is the bloody horse" Hence it is very difficult for me to decide which horse or horses to look at.   It makes perfect sense to me to start a racing day to check out what other respected members have chosen and THEN check out their selections by checking through the racecards of the Racing Post. At The Races and Race Advisor.  Nothing would thrill me more than to get a Lucky 15 up with a mixture of PL member's selections.  Hence, I do check out the horses via the race cards and then make a choice (usually the wrong ones) on which horses to back.  I get very confused with all the information about different horses in a race.  And, even if I look at one your postings identifying a specific horse for say a Nap selection I still can't see how you arrived at it when I look at it through the racecards. The only thing I could see about "Withold" was that it had a 4 star rating on Timeform.  Imperium had James Doyle aboard, so I thought that would have the best chance on Jockey bookings.  Of course you were right and Withold ran a great race to be second.  It is all tricky stuff this racing lark.  I have changed and am looking beyond the favourites but it will take time for me to get my selection and staking method right.  Bear with me.         

 

I will say one thing here that explains what i do, and that is make notes on everything and anything that takes my eye. now here's the thing in a previous post last month i outlined about horses that are blinkered fisrt time that have to run around a bend have very little chance of lasting home If you had read that (you read most things on here) and noted it you would never have backed Imperium no matter who was on it or what anyone said about it. A) do you use a notebook? (paper and pen) B) did you note it down? my biggest asset is my memory for detail and retaining that memory but i still need my notebook as confirmation at times. let me suggest one last time, find 8 horses anyway you can and do 2 x 20p lucky 15s and 8x £1 singles= 14points or if 14 is to much do the lucky 15's and 50p singles = 10points  if that is too much 2 x 10p lucky 15s and 8 x50p singles = 7 points, forget playing safe you will never sort them (any winners) out beforehand by price so dont bother just do the 1st 4 on your list and then the last 4 whatever the prices are, accept your losing days and enjoy your winnings days. if you can only find say seven horses just put one of your selections on both Lucky's billy bonus if that one wins.

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I will say one thing here that explains what i do, and that is make notes on everything and anything that takes my eye. now here's the thing in a previous post last month i outlined about horses that are blinkered fisrt time that have to run around a bend have very little chance of lasting home If you had read that (you read most things on here) and noted it you would never have backed Imperium no matter who was on it or what anyone said about it. A) do you use a notebook? (paper and pen) B) did you note it down? my biggest asset is my memory for detail and retaining that memory but i still need my notebook as confirmation at times. let me suggest one last time, find 8 horses anyway you can and do 2 x 20p lucky 15s and 8x £1 singles= 14points or if 14 is to much do the lucky 15's and 50p singles = 10points  if that is too much 2 x 10p lucky 15s and 8 x50p singles = 7 points, forget playing safe you will never sort them (any winners) out beforehand by price so dont bother just do the 1st 4 on your list and then the last 4 whatever the prices are, accept your losing days and enjoy your winnings days. if you can only find say seven horses just put one of your selections on both Lucky's billy bonus if that one wins.

Just wondering if it might be best for you to use "word" or something like that for your notes instead of pen and paper.  I think that notes can be better stored on the PC rather than in manual format.  Just a thought

[LEE-GRAYS]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Just wondering if it might be best for you to use "word" or something like that for your notes instead of pen and paper.  I think that notes can be better stored on the PC rather than in manual format.  Just a thought

He’s to old for PC still gets the darts out for big races ?

[The Equaliser]

21 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

He’s to old for PC still gets the darts out for big races ?

I have had MS Office 2019 and have only just discovered that I have the program called "One Note" included.  This may be best to keep notes on in the future as it has a cross-referencing facility

[Zilzalian]

11 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I have had MS Office 2019 and have only just discovered that I have the program called "One Note" included.  This may be best to keep notes on in the future as it has a cross-referencing facility

This office/loft i am sat in looks like the control panel of the starship enterprise i have 4 computers and 4 big screens 2 big TV's and every games console you can think of, i use apache office, it is free and easier to use than ms office or i should say just as good, everything i have on my physical notebook is on my computers the difference is i can take my physical notebook and read it while i am on the bog having a sh*t. i have had computers since my early 20's well before most people i know. i am 64 now but still the physical notebook is my most important and useful piece of kit because i don't have to switch it on every time i see something useful, it is instant it also never suffers from internet or power failure. hope that answers your question. Oh! and @LEE-GRAYS i still use darts. ??

[LEE-GRAYS]

22 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

This office/loft i am sat in looks like the control panel of the starship enterprise i have 4 computers and 4 big screens 2 big TV's and every games console you can think of, i use apache office, it is free and easier to use than ms office or i should say just as good, everything i have on my physical notebook is on my computers the difference is i can take my physical notebook and read it while i am on the bog having a sh*t. i have had computers since my early 20's well before most people i know. i am 64 now but still the physical notebook is my most important and useful piece of kit because i don't have to switch it on every time i see something useful, it is instant it also never suffers from internet or power failure. hope that answers your question. Oh! and @LEE-GRAYS i still use darts. ??

I’m only 61 next march 21 bank details available so a youngster really ??

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

I’m only 61 next march 21 bank details available so a youngster really ?

I'm "only" 60 so the baby of the L15 crew

[Zilzalian]

37 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I'm "only" 60 so the baby of the L15 crew

How old is big bad bollock cock?

[LEE-GRAYS]

10 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

How old is big bad bollock cock?

I’d say 42 ?

[BBBC]

The only thing near 42 these days is my waist …

[LEE-GRAYS]

We’ll we have 240 yrs of betting knowledge between us this should be a piece of piss ???

[BBBC]

I’ll order my Bentley now ….