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Racing Chat - Thursday 8th December


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Octavius Sabini 3:40 Taunton (28/1). Not shown much in 3 runs, but well bred and might improve for first run in a handicap. Bet365 have him twice the price as anywhere else so I've had a silly fiver on just in case. Wouldn't have to be that good to get involved here off 74 and with a 5lb claimer. 

 

 

Went well for a while (was fav in running briefly) but stopped quickly.

Edited by yossa6133
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315

CLOMEL

Willie Mullins runs

HENN SEE

win

 

After nearly a year off, up against runners who are far from novices who will give him a run for his money on this chase debut. Looked almost disinterested when easily wining a hurdle race on boxing day last year and was crying out for the larger obstacles. Has clearly been extensively schooled and the only issue is race fitness. He is going to win well or get turned over by a big priced horse, with that in mind I'll add an each way selection later.

Just Jacob 

80/1 or better

each way

A faller last time behind fil dor

 

 

 

 

5.30 chelmsford 

 

There is plenty of time to wait and see how the race pans out with withdrawals, money moves etc. 

 

But based on last year's available draw data, the optimum stall to be in is number 10.

 

(The average stall of the first three home was 9.66666 recurring)

 

Attrazione fills that berth George Boughey's runner was unlucky last time and has been 3rd and second last two runs. That trajectory suggests a win is not far away. As Hugh has pointed out, David Evans has an interesting runner here ridden by Rossa Ryan and in a first time visor. He may well win and is tempting. If he doesn't go through with his effort  though, on all weather debut, that will favour Attrazione in several ways. Looking at yesterday's race, the Evans horse was caught under the Boughey runner ,who laughed at a penalty  like standing behind a jet engines output  (did well to be fifth) and the opposite or the same could happen here.

 

That runner will be seen to good effect switched back to five furlongs.

You won't get rich backing my selections but you will get rationale.

Attrazione win.

 

 

 

Edited by sporting sam
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2.38 - Taunt - Magistrato - 7/2 bet365 B.O.G. - Paul Nichols is in very good form (14 wins, 11 placed, from 43 runners). This is the 2nd run after a wind op, and although there are 4 runners all with a chance, looks worth a small bet at the price.

5.30 Chelm - Cahore Retreat - 6/1 EW (1/5 4 places bet365) - David Evans runner is in a nursery for the 1st time, visored 1st time, and runs on the AW 1st time. Looks worth an EW bet.

-----------------------------

6.00 Chelm - Popular Dream - has been heavily gambled into 5/4 fav (forecast 12/1). I won't be having a bet on this unraced 2yo but it may be worth watching as it seems expected to go well and is well bred.

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Ù

10 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

800 chelm 

Luna,Queen    8.0 4/1 

Healing power  7.7 6/1 

Silks pass 7.4  10/1 

Tricky race ....healing power ran down the field last time ...not sure if that was a blip or crap jockey but better than that bare result .....but I'll play as the jumps are at the mercy of the frosts next few days so might be called off 

5pt wins top 2 

6x 1pt forecasts top 3

 

 

 

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