Grand Slam Of Darts

[Fader]

The draw for this was yesterday and here are all the groups :

Group A
Price
Chisnall
Van Barneveld
Evetts

Group B
Noppert
Whitlock
Suljovic
Perez

Group C
M.Smith
Cullen
Edhouse
Ashton

Group D
Cross
DVD
Schindler
Gawlas

 

[Fader]

Group E
Wright
Aspinall
Soutar
Sherrock

Group F
Clayton
Heta
Wattimena
Gates

Group G
MVG
R.Smith
Woodhouse
Rafferty

Group H
Humphries
Searle
Rock
S.Williams

[Fader]

I do love the Grand Slam of Darts. You need to be a truly great player to win this event and you can see that by the list of honors. Price won this last year and has won it 3 of the last 4 years with De Sousa in between in that crazy season he had. I must admit that I think Price probably wins it again as he has a lovely draw as usual but I can't be having it at such average odds.

We know whom will play whom in these events if we know the winner of each group. I think a good 1/4 to 1/2 of these groups the top 2 is quite obvious and so we can have an idea on about 4-6 players who have a great chance. I'm thinking something like this :

A) Price / Chisnall
B) Noppert / Suljovic
C) M.Smith / Cullen
D) Cross / DVD
E) Wright / Aspinall (possibly Soutar in 2nd)
F) Heta / Clayton (possibly Wattimena in 2nd)
G) MVG / R.Smith (possibly Rafferty in 2nd)
H) Humphries / Rock (possibly Searle in 2nd)
 

There a few that have an outside chance of qualification in these groups. So first I'll look at the qualification markets. I'll be going for these but they're just outsider picks to qualify because this is an event where I think the winner is a solid player and not a player who can just turn up for a day or 2.

2pts Soutar to qualify (Group E) 2/1 skybet
2pts Wattimena to qualify (Group F) 9/4 skybet
2pts Rafferty to qualify (Group G) 7/2 skybet

these 3 all have a shot in my eyes. I also was tempted with Schindler but I think Cross will raise his game for this event and I think DVD will edge out a win against Schindler on the first match-day. So with these groups in mind I reckon I could say what I reckon the Quarter Finals will be. In my opinion it goes something similar to this :

Price Vs Chisnall
M.Smith Vs Cullen
Wright Vs Heta
Rock Vs Humphries

This is saying that Rock beats MVG which of course will be a hell of a job. So looking at this potential final 8 and even if the 3 get through above that I've mentioned I still don't think Soutar or Wattimena go any further. I actually think Rafferty would have the best chance in playing Humphries but if I had to stick my neck out then the final 8 would be the above 8 taking out MVG because I don't want to bet on short priced players. OK, so for me it's :

Chisnall
M.Smith
Heta
Rock / Humphries

Rock has been awesome recently but in the last couple of Player Championships his average dipped and he didn't look as good. I'm not sure he can keep the consistency for so many matches and if it were Rock Vs Humphries, I reckon right now that Humphries would beat him. However, I will have a saver on him. I want 2 in each half of the draw here as my main bets and it's :

2pts e/w M.Smith to win GSOD 12/1 bet365
2pts e/w L. Humphries to win GSOD 16/1 bet365
1.5pts e/w D. Chisnall to win GSOD 20/1 bet365
1pt e/w D. Heta to win GSOD 25/1 paddypower
-------------------------------------
0.5pts e.w Rock to win GSOD 20/1 bet365

 

 

[Torque]

My head hurts after that 

[Fader]

How did Soutar not beat Wright. So many match darts. I guess the inexperience showed there. Anyway, some pointless matches tonight but also some big matches in which the winner goes through and the loser goes out. Few I like tonight

2.5pts DVD to beat Gawlas, most 180s and highest checkout evens paddypower
2.5pts RVB to beat Evetts and hit most 180s 17/10 paddypower
2pts Schindler to beat Cross 5/4 paddypower
2pts (Price Vs Chisnall) each player to hit 2 180s and 2+ 100+ checkouts in the match 7/2 paddypower
1.5pts Cullen to beat beating Ashton 4-0 after 4 legs 10/3 bet365
 

[Fader]

blimey, RVB wins 5-0 and not one 180. Schindler 4-1 up and loses 5-4. Brilliant. Anyways, tonight is even more matches that have permutations for other matches. Tonight starts with Wattimena against Gates. If he wins it then Heta will need to beat Clayton and do it in a better fashion than that of Wattimena against Gates. So if Wattimena beats Gates 5-0/5-1 then in all likely hood we'll see another poor performance from Heta in the 2nd match. However, I think it will be a close game in the first. Perhaps Wattimena wins it 5-4 or 5-3. If that's the case then Heta can qualify with a better score. Heta has a good record against Clayton and either way he will go all out to win. He will need to raise his game to win it but if he does then he is worth backing with the 180s too.

In the next 2 matches, Woodhouse will take on Rafferty, who is already out. I think Woodhouse wins that but he would need to win it by alot and he would also need MVG to batter Ross Smith. No appeal for any bet for me there. Then we go into Soutar taking on Sherrock. I think Soutar does the job. I think he should have beaten Wright. Infact, I know he should have with multiple chances and bottled it. Wright takes on Aspinall after and I'll be backing Aspinall. Aspinall will have to win if Soutar does indeed win and that motivation plus the fact Wright is in no state to be playing Darts right now as his wife is in hospital, hence the poor display. Aspinall has to be backed.

finally, in the final group, we have Searle taking on Scott Williams and Humphries taking on Josh Rock. Humphries has already qualified in this group and so although Scott Williams could potentially still win, it's most likely going to be between Rock and Searle. I think it helps Rock having Searle play first and Searle would need to win 5-2 just to be on level pegging in terms of leg difference. If that happens then perhaps the nerves will get to Rock. Either way i think Humphries probably beats Rock. I fancied Humphries from the start in this group and potentially I think he can go all the week this week.

2pts Heta to beat Clayton and hit the most 180s 7/2 bet365
2,5pts Aspinall to beat Wright 6/5 bet365
2.5pts Humphries to beat Rock 4/5 bet365
-------------------------------------------------------------
1pt accy - Heta, Aspinall, Humphries & S.Williams 23/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)

 

[Fader]

On 11/8/2022 at 2:28 PM, Fader said:

2pts Soutar to qualify (Group E) 2/1 skybet
2pts Wattimena to qualify (Group F) 9/4 skybet
2pts Rafferty to qualify (Group G) 7/2 skybet

Well, it wasn't pretty but Soutar and Wattimena both make it through. 2/1 and 9/4 winners. Rafferty showed how good he was but too late.

Winners tonight 7/2 and 6/5, Shame for Heta going out with 4pts. Finally, the 23/1 accy was always going to lose once it went down to just 1 left. Always happens.  Money back for anybody backing it with PP but small consolation really. We all knew that Humphries would lose once it was down to him didn't we? Could have gone 4-0 up and still lost with 23/1 waiting on it. 

[amity]

Nice work @Fader! And thanks for more excellent tipping advice! I still have Soutar and Wattimena outright, at 200/1 e/w and 150/1 e/w respectively, albeit relatively small stakes, let's see how far they can go! 

[Fader]

Yeah, made up for last night I guess

good luck m8. Ross Smith was awesome tonight without any pressure on his shoulders. 

[Fader]

full last 16 draw :

RVB Vs Whitlock
Noppert Vs Price
M.Smith Vs Cross
DVD Vs Cullen
--------------------------------
Aspinall Vs Wattimena
Clayton Vs Soutar
MVG Vs Rock
Humphries Vs R.Smith

[Fader]

The first half of the draw is tonight. We'll know the first 4 Quarter Finalists by the end of the night. The night kicks of with Barney rolling back the years and taking on a very winnable tie against Simon Whitlock. We could very well see a repeat of the Barney/Price group match in the Quarter Finals. Barney has hit 90.71, 100.08 & 97.60 in his 3 wins whilst Whitlock comes into this hitting averages of 97.21, 99.09 & 99.24. Whitlock, though, has come through a much weaker group. If we look at the average between the pair over their matches, Whitlock has 3.6 180s to 2.6 of Barney and has a superior checkout % too. (48% Vs 42%].  The averages are 96.13 Vs 98.51. Also in favour of Whitlock.

In the 2nd match we have Michael Smith taking on Rob Cross. Cross has looked very "up and down" in his performances. A 100+ average in his first match and a win over Gawlas, he then hit just 88.80 and 91.90 and let's be honest, he shouldn't be here and can thank Schindler bottling it after being 4-1 up. He is on a free-roll now though and that can be dangerous. He takes on Smith, who has got through without issue but hasn't looked that great. Good thing for him is he has progressively got better and better. A poor 91.21 against Ashton, then then has hit 95.19 and 102.20 and bottom line is he has won 3 out of 3. H2H shows 2 wins each from the last 4 and you would expect Cross to raise his game but I think Smith comes through this. Smith will need to score abit better though because Cross is better on the finishing right now. He has a combined checkout % of 62% compared to Smiths 45% and if we come down to that then he will be in trouble. Just 2 180s in 3 matches in the unknown for Smith.

The penultimate match sees Price taking on Noppert. Price has beaten Noppert in both their matches in 2022 and both were big matches (Quarter Final of International Darts Open and Semi Finals of World Matchplay) and I see no change in this match. Noppert's form has dipped over the last 6 months but to be fair to him, he has only lost to DVD, Aspinall and Price since winning the UK Open. Problem is he faces Price tonight. Stats wise, 180s is 2.6 Vs 3.3 in favour of Price and checkout % is 54% Vs 39% in favour of Noppert. Price is another one that shouldn't really be here but thanks to the soft underbelly of Dave Chisnall, he is. Now we have much longer matches and you would have to think that he comes through this and probably hits the most 180s along the way.

In the final match we have DVD taking on Joe Cullen. 1 win each for these pair in 2022 but DVD has had the much better group performances with 3 wins in 3. 102.89, 95.33 and 98.07 is decent numbers in the group and his average of 3 180s a match is decent. 49% checkout percentage compared to Cullen's 43% and it shows that basically, Cullen needs to get his scoring boots on to win this with just over 1 180 a match average. I think DVD wins and normally when he wins he gets the most 180s too.

2.5pts M.Smith to beat R.Cross and hit most 180s 11/10 paddypower
2.5pts G.Price to beat D.Noppert and hit most 180s 17/10 paddypower
4pts DVD to beat J.Cullen and hit most 180s 11/8 paddypower
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
1pt treble - Smith win and hit most 180s / Price win and hit most 180s / DVD win and hit most 180s 12.5/1 paddypower
0.5pt 4-fold - all the 3 above plus Whitlock to beat Barney 23.5/1 paddypower

 

[Fader]

What a match lastnight with MVG and Rock. A 9 darter for Rock, too. However, MVG looks like the MVG of old and is on fire at the moment. I don't hold much hope for one of my outrights, Humphries.

Wasn't much I liked lastnight betting wise. Just waiting for the outrights to see how they get on. One bet for tonight is Price to beat Barney. I think he also gets the most 180s and highest checkout. Barney looked really flat at the start of the Whitlock match and he was lucky that Whitlock buckled under the pressure and let him back in. Price won't do that and I think he will win with a few to spare.

2.5pts Price to beat Barney, most 180s and highest checkout 13/10 paddypower
 

 

[Fader]

Rubbish old Humphries and his doubling ruins the best kind of final. Hopefully Smith finally does the job tonight 

[Foo_Fighter]

2 hours ago, Fader said:

Rubbish old Humphries and his doubling ruins the best kind of final. Hopefully Smith finally does the job tonight 

Bully boy wins you think? No doubt he's a better scorer but can you trust his checkout %? I think Aspinall is mentally tougher on this aspect of the game. Smith's relying on his 180s, if he hits a lot of those, he probably wins, but I just cannot trust him, I don't know. He's the rightful favorite though.

[Fader]

21 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Bully boy wins you think? No doubt he's a better scorer but can you trust his checkout %? I think Aspinall is mentally tougher on this aspect of the game. Smith's relying on his 180s, if he hits a lot of those, he probably wins, but I just cannot trust him, I don't know. He's the rightful favorite though.

Amount of times I've thought he would win a final though and he has a performance like crazy against him or he bottles it. I wouldn't be involved in the individual match but I fancy him to won tonight 

[Fader]

Finally for Smith for a 12/1 win