Racing Chat - Friday 4th November

[azzybear]

idoapolagise 4.15

[Villa Chris]

Greaneteen saves the day from being a blank . 4 points loss on the day though 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 -5.94 points

plenty of action tomorrow 

[Zilzalian]

Keenland Breeders Cup Keep your eye on todays results note the winner and 2nd draw, it is valuable information Keenland is generally described as fair but can produce bias on occasions its all about harrowing the dirt so as a rule it favours low in sprints but that has to be coupled with fast away . but remember because the turf is sand based and tight it pays to come from off the pace as it drains/tires the front runners. 

I have a liking for "And tell nolies" in the 740. and Lady holloway in stall 1 in the 7:00 should be no where near the 33/1 i got last night. Obrien does well here so chuck his in and we should have a profitable night.

[LEE-GRAYS]

Race 6 keenland speed boat beach 9/1 e/w bit of flavien prat good jockey bet365 

[MCLARKE]

16 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Still fine tuning my systems for the winter jumps season but one factor that stands out is the success of 5 year olds in November and December. The AE for them is 1.05.

I have read somewhere that horses reach their peak at 4.5 years, which is equivalent to 5 for UK horses (as they all have the same birthday, 1st January).

It would seem logical then to back them in races where they are the only 5 year old.

Tomorrows selections.

Fontwell	1.40	Sayadam	11/4
Down Royal	2.05	David Garrick	80/1
Fontwell	2.15	Family Business	16/1
Hexham	2.35	Twoshotsoftequila	8/1
Down Royal	2.40	Alice Avril	11/2
Down Royal	3.50	Carnfunnock	9/4

A good start with 3 winners, Sayadam at 11/4, Family Business at 16/1 and Carnfunnock at 9/4 for an 18 points LSP profit for the day.

 

[The Brigadier]

On 11/3/2022 at 8:20 AM, The Brigadier said:

The ITV cameras are at Down Royal and Exeter for seven live races on Friday which should make for some good viewing. Luckily rain has hit the West Country so the ground is likely to ride on the easy side of good whilst it’ll be slower in Ireland for the Down Royal meeting which Gordon Elliott seems to farm each year. Below are my thoughts on the seven races.

 

Down Royal 1.30

A competitive 2m 1F grade 3 mares novice hurdle where Willie Mullins saddles four of the eleven runners. Paul Townend is on Nikini who’s won both her hurdle starts and steps up in grade today whilst Danny Mullins is on board Saylavee who was a 15L winner of a Gowran Park maiden hurdle on her hurdling debut. The third member of the Mullins team shouldn’t be dismissed either. Champagne Problem is ridden by Mr Pat Taaffe as his family own the mare and following two easy enough victories at Cork and Kilbeggan was runner up in a listed mares hurdle to Norman Lee’s She Is Electric with the pair pulling well clear of the remainder. Mullins also saddles Carrigmoorna Queen but she wasn’t that impressive when winning on her hurdling debut at Listowel and with Brian Hayes on board looks the 3rd or even 4th string. There are some other promising mares here with Gordon Elliott (who always does so well at this meeting)un-leashing Liberty Dance who’s unlucky not to be unbeaten in three bumpers last season. Elliot sounded bullish in a recent stable tour in the Racing Post about her for the season and it would be no shock were she to run a big race on her hurdling debut. Noel Meade has a very interesting runner in The Model Kingdom who won three bumpers last season and landed the odds laid on her on her hurdles debut at Tipperary last month. She could be very good. This looks a race that’s going to take some winning and to small stakes I’ll take Champagne Problem at the prices each way.

 

CHAMPAGNE PROBLEM 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 @ 10/1 1/5th 123

 

Exeter 1.50

The first of four races from the Devon racecourse is a class 4 2m 5 1/2F mares’ handicap hurdle. It has a very open look about it with many holding chances. Last year’s winner, trained by Dan Skelton, Martha Brae is only 4lb higher than 12 months ago and despite a 173 day absence has to be on the short list especially if strong in the market. Harry Fry sets a poser by saddling a brace of mares making their handicap debuts in Whisky Express and Ma Belle Noire. Both are returning from a lay off and it’s hard to split them although no doubt the market will tell which is the more favoured. Kieran Burke has had a good run with his The Height Of Fame who dead heated with a stable companion last time out at Newton Abbot. He too can be competitive. Bottom weight Bonnie Bresil is another making her handicap debut (there’s six of them here) and could be well treated. A real puzzle but I’ll go with last years victor Martha Brae in the hope the Skelton’s have her ready for this first run of the season.

 

MARTHA BRAE 1 point each way @ 10/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345

 

Down Royal 2.05

This looks a match between Gordon Elliott’s two smart hurdlers Fil Dor and Pied Piper. Official ratings have them on the same mark of 147 and there shouldn’t really be much between them here. There was only a neck between them (in Fil Dor’s favour) when third and fourth in last season’s Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. The one difference here is the fact that Pied Piper has been out this season already when a cosy winner at Cheltenham two weeks ago whilst Fil Dor hadn’t been seen for 188 days. It’s hard to fancy any of other three and this is really a no bet race with the market having it about right with Pied Piper the odds on favourite.

 

Exeter 2.25

Only three go to post for this 3M class 2 novice chase but it’s still an interesting race to say the least. Very smart long distance hurdler Thyme Hill is making his chasing debut for the Philip Hobbs team and when you consider his hurdle mark is 161 and his two opponents are rated 132 and 137 you can understand how he’s such a short price. If he can reproduce his smart hurdle form he wins here it’s a simple as that but he’s rising 9 years of age and Hobbs is not in the best of form so at the prices I’ll take him on. The other pair are Chris Gordon’s Press Your Luck and Paul Nicholls’ Flash Collonges. They met at Chepstow last month where Gordon’s charge ran out a comfortable 5 1/2L winner, always looking like he had Flash Collonges well beat. The latter re-opposes on 8lb better term but such was the authority of Press Your Luck that I’ll play him to small stakes.

 

PRESS YOUR LUCK 1 point win @ 5/1 BetVictor

 

Down Royal 2.40

A dozen chasers line up for this 2m 100 yards handicap chase. Gordon Elliott sets a poser by saddling top weight Gevrey with Davy Russell on board and the Jack Kennedy ridden The Greek. The latter won a race at Perth in September that fell apart with two of his three opponents failing to complete. I much prefer the former who’s Limerick victory last month has already been boosted by the subsequent victory of the runner up Optional Mix. Last year’s winner Espionage Du Chenet is now some 22lb higher although has obviously improved in the interim. Stuart Crawford’s Now Where And When was last seen at Fairyhouse last April when chasing home Gevrey at levels and is now 11lb better off. If straight he can go well for a stable that have won with two of their last three runners. A tough call again but it’s top weight Gevrey for me even if there is a slight doubt about him dropping to the minimum trip.

 

GEVREY 1 point win 7/2 William Hill

 

Exeter 3.00

Next up is a class 3 3M handicap chase with eleven declared. Joe Tizzard has his string in excellent shape with five of his last eight runners all winning and saddles Killer Kane here who’s returning from a 209 day absence. A dual winner at Kempton and Sandown last season he can be thereabouts if straight enough. Christian Williams has taken over the training of the former Philip Hobbs inmate Pileon and is an interesting runner though he didn’t look a natural jumper in two starts over fences for Hobbs and Williams has yet to get going so far this season so is overlooked. Neon Moon is an interesting runner for David Pipe who makes his fencing debut here and is worth a close monitor in the betting market. The pick though has to Emma Lavelle’s Minella Buster who looked a chaser to follow when cantering home in a five runner Kempton handicap chase last month on his chase debut. A former Irish point winner he could still be very well handicapped with just a 9lb rise to contend with. Tom Bellamy was on board that day and retains the ride.

 

MINELLA BUSTER 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hill

 

Exeter 3.35

This year’s renewal of the Haldon Gold Cup formerly run on a Tuesday has attracted just five runners and is run over 2m 1F 109 Yards. Us And Them is impossible to fancy from 8lb wrong at the weights and Dolos may not be up to beating these at this time of the season. Paul Nicholls trains Dolos and top weight Greaneteen who won this contest a couple of years ago off of a 17lb lower mark. He was soundly beaten in this last year before winning the Tingle Creek and one wonders whether that’s the plan again. Joe Tizzard is flying at the moment and his War Lord, who has a good record fresh, was a smart novice last season and can run well but my fancy is the Dan Skelton trained Third Time Lucki. Skelton hit form over the weekend with a big race double at Wetherby and you would think he would of had this race in mind for his seven year old for a while. Like War Lord he was a smart novice last season winning three of his six starts and has won fresh. Any one of the ‘big’ three could take this but my preference has to be Third Time Lucki.

 

THIRD TIME LUCKI 1 point win @ 15/8 BetVictor

 

Just the one place today for a loss of 5 points. Hopefully better luck tomorrow.

[Sporting Sam]

Dundalk 6pm

BEGINNINGS 

Win

Ridden by seamie Heffernan was 4th in a very decent maiden. The depth of that race became apparent when the winner spirit Gal romped home here in a listed race. The second and third have both won since as well. So the selection was doing very well to get fourth and has every chance of winning here.

Some very good runners here but the Japanese bred dam of this runner has foaled a winner already 

Won't be much of a price but Aidan O'Brien's runner has a very good prospect.

Edited November 4, 2022 by sporting sam
Embolden

[kensland]

Keenland Breeders. 

Grand Love.    12/1.           ew. 

Good luck all 

Edited November 4, 2022 by kensland

[LEE-GRAYS]

Race 7 keenland alma rosa 50/1 e/w bet365 

[azzybear]

wonder wheel 7.40 

Edited November 4, 2022 by azzybear
keenland

[azzybear]

midnight mile 8.20

[azzybear]

lost ark 9.00 silver knot 9.40