Racing Chat - Saturday 9th April

[The Brigadier]

Grand National day with some attractive racing around the big race. Here’s my early thoughts on Saturdays Aintree card :-

 

Aintree 1.45

A highly competitive twenty two runner 3 mile handicap hurdle kicks things off on Grand National day at Aintree. There’s plenty of Cheltenham handicap form represented here with the likes of the Pertemps winner Third Wind (up 5lb), 3rd Mill Green (up 2lb), 4th Winter Fog (up 1lb), 6th If The Cap Fits, 7th Whatsnottoknow, 8th Coeur Serein all re opposing. We also have the Coral Cup 5th Party Business who had no luck in running in that 2m 5F contest an now stepping up in distance and off of the same mark and with the extra distance likely to suit could be one who will run well for the Ian Williams team who was having a twitter meltdown a couple of days ago over the seemingly un paid bills of owner Marwan Koukash! There’s many others here with chances and I can’t resist a small ew wager on the David Pipe runner Remastered who’s been in good form over fences this season and can race off of a mark 10lb lower back over hurdles. The Pipe team are in the best form they’ve been all season currently scoring a hat trick on Thursday and although he could ideally do with softer ground is so well handicapped he can run well.

 

REMASTERED 1 point each way @ 9/1 William Hill 1/5^th 12345

PARTY BUSINESS 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5^th 12345

 

 

Aintree 2.25

Thirteen go to post for the 2m 4F grade one Betway Novices’ Hurdle. Gordon Elliott will be hoping for better luck than he had with Pied Piper on day one with his six year old Three Stripe Life who is without doubt the form horse having chased home Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore at Cheltenham . He is officially 7lb ahead of the field with the second favourite Walking On Air looking his biggest threat. Trained at Seven Barrows by Nicky Henderson the vibes are strong for him and from a stable that houses crack novices Constitution Hill and Jonbon is worth chancing to beat Three Stripe Life. The best of the rest may well be the Sam Thomas trained Good Risk To All who made a mockery of his handicap mark when winning a handicap hurdle at Ascot last time out. He’s rapidly improving but I have to be with Walking On Air following on from his impressive Newbury victory and coming here with a big reputation to be ridden by Nico De Boinville.

 

WALKING ON AIR 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Aintree 3.00

Edwardstone looks head and shoulders above these and will be hard to beat in this grade one Maghull Novices’ Chase run over just short of two miles. He’s unbeaten in all five of his completed chases and took the Arkle last time out at Cheltenham. He holds Third Time Lucki on previous Warwick form and it’s hard to see that one turning the form around with the second favourite Gentleman De Mee chasing a hat trick following easy successes in Ireland when odds on at Thurles and Navan. Official ratings have him only 3lb behind Edwardstone but I’ll be surprised if he can beat him today.

 

EDWARDSTONE 4 points win @ 8/11 William Hill

 

Aintree 3.35

3m 149 yards is the distance of the grade one JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle and features the Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle 1st, 2nd and 4th. Flooring Porter was the winner then and as the highest rated in the field is the one they all have to beat today. He made it back to back wins in that race when coming home 2 3/4L ahead of Thyme Hill who reopposes here today. That was a good effort from Thyme Hill who won this contest last year by a neck from Roksana and is likely to run a big race today. Back in 4th at Cheltenham was the Nicky Henderson trained Champ and only has 4L to make up on Flooring Porter and less with Thyme Hill. If on his best behaviour, he too would have claims here. I’m pretty certain the winner will come from one of this trio and I’ll take a chance that Philip Hobb’s Thyme Hill can bridge the gap with Flooring Porter on a track we know suits him well.

 

THYME HILL 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

Aintree 4.15

A big field of 18 assemble for the Betway Handicap Chase run over 3m 210 yards. Dan Skelton’s Shan Blue could be chucked in here if you can believe his Charlie Hall run at Wetherby in October. On that day he was 20L ahead and showing no sign of stopping when falling three out. The first five home that day were rated 152, 149,159,151 and 156 with the 168 rated Cyrname pulling up. The official assessor was unable to raise him for that effort as it was too far out to change his mark which remains at 148. And that’s why he’s so short in the betting today. He does have to put a below par effort when 6th in the Ryanair at Cheltenham beaten some 32L behind him but if anywhere near his Wetherby form he’s got a massive chance and has to be the selection. Christian William’s Cap Du Nord fresh from his Kempton win from stable companion Kitty’s Light (runner up in Scottish National since) looks a threat despite a 8lb weight rise. 

 

SHAN BLUE 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

Aintree 5.15

The Big One! This year’s Randox Grand National has attracted a maximum field of 40 runners jumping 30 fences over 4m 2F 74yds. The Irish have won four of the last five renewals and had ten of the first eleven home last season so anything they are sending over has to be of interest. Last year’s winner Minella Times who gave Rachael Blackmore her first (and a female jockey’s) Grand National victory is back to defend his crown but is now a stone higher in the weights and has shown little in two starts since. He’s had to fancy although is sure to be popular with the once a year punters. Last years ‘unlucky’ horse was the eventual 8L third Any Second Now who was badly hampered at the 10th but stuck on to run well and arrives here 7lb higher but in top form having won the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February. He looks the main play here. Delta Work is a six time grade one winner who won the cross country race at Cheltenham last time. He had a tough race that day and for that reason alone is overlooked. The springer in the market this week has been the Charlie Longsdon trained Snow Leopardess who has experience of this fences having won the Becher Chase over these fences last December. She has plenty going for her and will be very popular and easy to spot as she’s a big grey. No mare however has won this race since 1951. The other horse at the front end of the market worth playing is Emma Lavelle’s Eclair Surf who crept into the race as number 39 and who’s recent form has been franked by the Scottish National, winner Win My Wings. He’s 4lb well in here and stays well. He should run well with a clear round. Some outsiders I think will run well School Boy Hours who crept into the race as second reserve on Friday lunchtime when his owner JP McManus pulled out a couple presumably to let him have a run. His trainer Noel Meade has stated that he thinks he’s an ideal type for the Grand National and is an interesting runner. Emma Lavelle’s other runner De Rasher Counter who’s been trained for this and can race off of the same handicap mark as when winning the Ladbroke Trophy in 2019. Two For Gold who has a touch of class about him and is 5lb well in here but does have stamina issues although at his monster price is still worth a small ew interest. As always you’ll need plenty of luck but my two at the front of the market to back are Eclair Surf and Any Second Now plus small savers on a trio of outsiders in De Rasher Counter, Two For Gold and School Boy Hours.

 

ECLAIR SURF 1 point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5^th 123456

ANY SECOND NOW 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5^th 123456

SCHOOL BOY HOURS 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 Boylesports 1/5th 123456

 

TWO FOR GOLD 1/4 point each way @ 40/1 William Hill 1/5^th 123456

DE RASHER COUNTER 1/4 point each way @ 50/1 Unibet 1/5^th 123456

 

 

Aintree 6.20

A big field of bumper horses to finish this year’s Grand National meeting for this two mile NH Flat race. You won’t go far wrong backing the Willie Mullins horses in these events and although he saddles a brace of runners here it’s the Patrick Mullins ridden Rath Gaul Boy that stands out. He’s already won an Irish point and looked a decent prospect when landing the odds on his rules debut at Leopardstown 33 days ago when forging clear inside the final furlong to win by six lengths. His stable mate Houlanbatordechais attracted support on his British debut in the Cheltenham Champion bumper when he ran no race at all with his bit slipping through his mouth. He’s obviously better than that but in a first time hood may not be the most tractable of characters. A bigger danger to the selection may well be the Alan King trained Ernest Gray who made an impressive start for Alan King (formerly trained in Ireland Colin Bowe) winning at Warwick.

 

RATH GAUL BOY 2 points win @ 4/1 Coral/Ladbrokes

 

[cannotbebeat]

These are the 3 trainer/jockey combinations I am following for April

Grant Tuer/Oliver Stammers
Runs 4 - L L L L

A D Brown/Paula Muir
Runs 1 - L

K A Ryan/Kevin Stott
Runs 8 - L L L L L L W L

Bets 13 - Profit 0 - Loss 80

Winning Price 4/1

Today's Runners

Thirsk
12.55 Pride Of Yorkshire 7/2

2.40 Bielsa 9/1

3.15 Catch Cunningham 15/4

4.30 Manaslu 6/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[kensland]

Bangor-on-Dee. 

1.55.Line of Decent.     5/2.. unpl 

2.33.AR Mest.              4/1.... unpl 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited April 9, 2022 by kensland

[black rabbit]

North lodge   2 25 ain   1/4 pt win    8/1  

dans le vent   1 45 ain    1/5 pt ew 18/1

School bot hours    1/5 pt ew 40/1      national

De rasher counter  1/5 pt ew 85/1   national

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 123 pts    

Edited April 9, 2022 by black rabbit
adding selections

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selection

AINT

2.25

Good Risk At All

6/1

[fuzzy64]

Newcastle

1.37

Broomfields Kan 13/2

Darius Des Sources 16/1

 

2.15

Devour 13/2

 

2.50 see the sea

 

3.25

Sir William Wallace

 

4.00 miss Scarlett 12/1

 

 

 

[azzybear]

dans let vant 1.45 delta work 5.15

[azzybear]

bird on a wire 12.30

[fd1972uk]

Thirsk ew dbl

Navello 315 & coolagh magic 500

 

Treble

1230 new post chaise, 100 new gut maker and 457 wol pons aelius

Single

Thi 240 mutsaabeq

 

Good luck all. 

[fuzzy64]

Thirsk

1.30 Singe Anglais 20/1 e/w

2.05 True Mason 11-1,   As If By Chance 28-1 e/w

3.15 Red Warning 33-1 e/w,  Selbys Pride 20-1 

3.50

State Of Bliss 10-1

Mancini 33-1 e/w

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2022 by fuzzy64

[MCLARKE]

Aintree trends

1.45

Last ran less than 24 days ago, 0 from 58

Odds > 11/1, 2 from 113

This reduces the field to 2, SAINT D'OROUX and REMASTERED

Conditional jockeys, 0 from 37

This leaves REMASTERED at 8/1, 5 places

2.25

Favourite 5 from 7, AE 2.24

This leaves THREE STRIP LIFE at 10/3, 4 places

3.00

1st last time, 5 from 8, AE 1.71

Last ran more than 25 days ago, 2 from 19

This leaves EDWARDSTONE at 8/15

3.35

Odds > 12/1, 0 from 42

Not in 1st 2 last time, 3 from 42

Bred in Ireland, 2 from 43

This leaves THYME HILL at 5/2

4.15

Last ran more than 27 days ago, 1 from 53

Bred in Ireland, 6 from 59, AE 1.58

This leaves 5, TEA CLIPPER, OSCAR ELITE, EMPIRE STEEL, SHAN BLUE and WISHING AND HOPING

Not in top in weights, 1 from 59

This removes OSCAR ELITE

Not in top 4 in betting, 2 from 72

This leaves TEA CLIPPER and SHAN BLUE

Top 4 in weights, 1 from 26

This leaves TEA CLIPPER at 6/1, 5 places

 

 

 

 

[The Brigadier]

13 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Aintree trends

1.45

Last ran less than 24 days ago, 0 from 58

Odds > 11/1, 2 from 113

This reduces the field to 2, SAINT D'OROUX and REMASTERED

Conditional jockeys, 0 from 37

This leaves REMASTERED at 8/1, 5 places

2.25

Favourite 5 from 7, AE 2.24

This leaves THREE STRIP LIFE at 10/3, 4 places

3.00

1st last time, 5 from 8, AE 1.71

Last ran more than 25 days ago, 2 from 19

This leaves EDWARDSTONE at 8/15

3.35

Odds > 12/1, 0 from 42

Not in 1st 2 last time, 3 from 42

Bred in Ireland, 2 from 43

This leaves THYME HILL at 5/2

4.15

Last ran more than 27 days ago, 1 from 53

Bred in Ireland, 6 from 59, AE 1.58

This leaves 5, TEA CLIPPER, OSCAR ELITE, EMPIRE STEEL, SHAN BLUE and WISHING AND HOPING

Not in top in weights, 1 from 59

This removes OSCAR ELITE

Not in top 4 in betting, 2 from 72

This leaves TEA CLIPPER and SHAN BLUE

Top 4 in weights, 1 from 26

This leaves TEA CLIPPER at 6/1, 5 places

6.20

Odds > 20/1, 0 from 62

Last ran more than 62 days ago, 3 from 40, AE 2.25

Bred in Ireland, 5 from 72, AE 1.29

This leaves 3, PRAIRIE WOLF, WESTERN ZEPHYR and CHIANTI CLASSICO

Not in the top 7 in the betting, 0 from 71

This leaves CHIANTO CLASSICO at 20/1, 5 places 

 

 

 

 

 

Liking Remastered, Edwardstone and Thyme Hill here - good luck @MCLARKE

[fuzzy64]

Bangor-on-Dee

1.55

Follow Your Fire 16-1

Maisiebella 20-1

2.33

Ar Mest 5-1

Billingsley 12-13.08

Family Pot 13-2

Ajays Ways 9-1

 

[The Equaliser]

One double today and the rest singles bets

4.15 Ain Shan Blue 3/1

6.20 Ain Rath Gaul Boy

1 x 2 pt win double = poss return 32 points

1.45 Aint Winter Fog 1 pt @7.0,, Party Business 0.5 pts at 13/2 and Rematstered 0.5 pts at 15/2

3.00 Aint Gentleman De Mee 1 pt win at 5.6

3.35 Aint Champ 1 pt win at 5.1

4.15 Aint Tea Clipper 1 pt at 7.8 and Cap Du Nord 1 pt at 11.00

5.15 Aint Any Second Now 1 pt at 13.5, Delta Work 0.5 pts at 14/1, Snow Leopardess 0.5 pts at 14/1 and Longhouse Pet 0.5 pts at 14/1

2.50 Nc Sea The Sea 1 pt win at 4/1

= 11.5 pts staked for an entertaining afternoon

Good luck to all

Champ's price in the 3.35 at Aint unmatched. Now trading at 4.3 so I have cancelled the bet

Total stakes = 10.5 pts now.  3 winners so far so I can't lose today

6.20 Aint Rath  Gaul Boy 2 pts win at 4.5

Total stakes now 12.5

Edited April 9, 2022 by The Equaliser
Update

[fuzzy64]

Thirsk 

5.00 Fircombe Hall

Newcastle

4.40 Barney

[Tedthewolf]

National

I like horses that have run well in the scottish  version so i'm on DINGO DOLLARS  @66/1 e/w  & MIGTHY  THUNDER 40/1 and also  i have had a few pence e/w on the oldie  ANIBALE FLY @ 80/1 

Good Luck All

 

[fd1972uk]

Single win, post chaise let down my treble. 

[fuzzy64]

Wolverhampton

Quartet 14-1

Kobra 20-1

 

Red Verden 13-2

Reshoun 13-2

Edited April 9, 2022 by fuzzy64

[azzybear]

faithhopeandglory 7.00 ew punt 

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

One double today and the rest singles bets

4.15 Ain Shan Blue 3/1

6.20 Ain Rath Gaul Boy

1 x 2 pt win double = poss return 32 points

1.45 Aint Winter Fog 1 pt @7.0,, Party Business 0.5 pts at 13/2 and Rematstered 0.5 pts at 15/2

3.00 Aint Gentleman De Mee 1 pt win at 5.6

3.35 Aint Champ 1 pt win at 5.1

4.15 Aint Tea Clipper 1 pt at 7.8 and Cap Du Nord 1 pt at 11.00

5.15 Aint Any Second Now 1 pt at 13.5, Delta Work 0.5 pts at 14/1, Snow Leopardess 0.5 pts at 14/1 and Longhouse Pet 0.5 pts at 14/1

2.50 Nc Sea The Sea 1 pt win at 4/1

= 11.5 pts staked for an entertaining afternoon

Good luck to all

Champ's price in the 3.35 at Aint unmatched. Now trading at 4.3 so I have cancelled the bet

Total stakes = 10.5 pts now.  3 winners so far so I can't lose today

6.20 Aint Rath  Gaul Boy 2 pts win at 4.5

Total stakes now 12.5

RESULTS UPDATE

What a lot of shock results in the last 4 races at Aintree.  A marvelous feat by the trainers.  I had 3 winners with one in a multiple single.  The net effect was a small profit of 1.76 which is better than a loss.  MTD -36.4 & YTD -192.21

Well, that's the Grand National over for another year.  Great to see Ruby Walsh so frustrated by Any Second Now getting beat; worth my 1 pt just to see that.  I don't how the TV presenters are supposed to help punters in finding winners for the races that they attend but they all seem to be nothing far short of being useless.