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** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **

Racing chat - Friday 14th January


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44 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

these are the types of races i love, (310 ling) i cross out half the field just on prices. I happened to get this winner at 11/1 but on this occasion it was purely based on backing all 3 botti horse in a patent (2 won) but with this type of race i say to myself well the unexposed horse doesn't have to be much to beat this lot. and if that unexposed horse is dble figure odds then its a bet for me.

Well, I do agree that going for an outsider in these type of events is just as good as betting on the favourite(s); the problem for me would be which one?  Glad you won on the race

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30 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Yes, but Hollie Doyle is excellent on the AW.  I'm glad I didn't back Nate The Great, I would have been well choked.  Good win for you.  You must be up today

yeah about 20 lsp so far. rating one a good proportion of that and nap.

Edited by Wildgarden
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34 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Yes, but Hollie Doyle is excellent on the AW.  I'm glad I didn't back Nate The Great, I would have been well choked.  Good win for you.  You must be up today

hollie average from stats as most jockeys are than some value apprentices. last year for hollie was worst  yet minus 30% roi prob cos she is popular and overbet

Screenshot_20220114-191254.png

Edited by Wildgarden
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28 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well, I do agree that going for an outsider in these type of events is just as good as betting on the favourite(s); the problem for me would be which one?  Glad you won on the race

You find the horse that is hiding in plain view. go back and look at this particular race, believe it or not, not many do that, once they have won or lost they just move on to the next "thing"

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3 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

hollie average from stats as most jockeys are than some value apprentices. last year for hollie was worst  yet minus 30% roi prob cos she is popular and overbet

Screenshot_20220114-191254.png

                   

 

 

 

                   
                   
                  5 years stats in the RP suggest that she is best on 2 yo on the All weather
                 

I didn't realise that she had dropped off so much and that David Probert has 41 wins and is front of the current championship contest

Thanks for pointing it out

 

                   
                 
TOTAL 502 3631 14 449 408 445 £3,965,085 £6,713,630 -601.03
2yo AW 65 351 19 41 34 42 £292,811 £399,197 -55.47
2yo turf 48 380 13 46 53 42 £288,779 £633,549 -117.78
3yo AW 108 719 15 87 81 92 £532,541 £833,510 -82.71
3yo turf 78 584 13 91 58 82 £464,545 £1,055,711 -179.30
4yo+ AW 128 1003 13 116 119 112 £721,130 £1,178,044 -161.86
4yo+ turf 75 594 13 68 63 75 £1,665,279 £2,613,618 -3.91
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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

6.30 Wolv 2 pt win at 8.4 on Authors Dream with Tom Marquand aboard

 

RESULTS UPDATE

An awful day for me today lost 16.2 points.  The only good thing about it was that my Nap won for me. This puts me back to a MTD/YTD of -38.06 points

We have the usual ton of top class racing tomorrow the best being at Kempton and Warwick.  At least I won't have to look at class 4 races.

 

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