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Anytime Goalscorer System


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Just now, harry_rag said:

10 points on Kulusevski (Spurs) at 4.3 (60B)

:wall Had just seen he'd scored for what would be the inaugural "B" bet winner only to realise the post wasn't there. Sure enough, it was still in the editor so I presumably never actually submitted it!

I'll weigh up what to do later. I normally just take unposted bets on the chin, win or lose, but I'd rather maintain an accurate record of how the bets are performing for this system.

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On 8/6/2022 at 4:23 PM, harry_rag said:

10 points on Kulusevski (Spurs) at 4.3 (60B)

Won but not including in the results for the thread as it wasn't posted in time.

Nkunku the only winner from 6 "A" bets since the last update and 4 losing "B" bets ignoring the phantom winner.

132 winners from 403 "A" bets (32.75%) for a loss of 28.65 points.

0 winners from 8 "B" bets (0%) for a loss of 80 points. 

My overall record since I started backing the "B" bets is 5 winners from 21 bets for a loss of 27.85 points, just to give some context to the 0-8 record for the posted bets. 

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13 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I'm curious about your method, where do you get these stats from?  

I started gathering the data just over a year ago and now have over 1600 players where the spread price (midpoint) has been between 20 and 35. Originally this was with a view to a potential laying strategy but it was too hard to get matched at my target price as the back price on BF tends to be at least as good as the best bookies price on Oddschecker. It eventually turned into this attempt at an anytime goalscorer system.

I have plenty of data for players priced 35+ as that's the zone where I would usually sell them and it doesn't strike me as viable to be backing players at closer to evens or odds on.

I've just started gathering data (and backing any selections) for players priced between 15 and 19 (as long as they are one of their team's 3 most likely scorers according to the market). We'll see where that goes but I might conclude that it's better to stick to the 20-25 "middle" zone.

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The "B" bets obviously look a bit sickly at the moment. Had you backed every one in the data sample at minimum odds (only 162 so far) you'd be 5 points down with an ROI of -3.1%.

Compare that to the "A" bets which are running at an ROI of 8.4% after 1666 selections and it's clear the strike rate will need to improve if the actual bets are to show a profit.

We're still in "small sample size" territory for the "B" bets though; after 162 selections the "A" bets were -0.28 points.

Maybe it would have been wiser to paper trade the "B" bets for a while or bet to smaller stakes but I'll carry on with the current approach for the time being.

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12 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I have been following some A bets because I remember you saying that they were the “safest” ones.  I guess that I got lucky in that the bets that I choose to back were pretty much all winners.  

Yeah, "A" bets based on around 10 times as much data as the "B" bets. Same methodology but "B" bets are less likely scorers so would expect a worse strike rate anyway; the question is whether the returns will be similar in the long run (in terms of ROI). 

Looking at the "A" bets since I started posting the letter/number info there's the same record for the selections that were 72+ and those that were <72 (5 wins and 4 losers for each, so both profitable at the odds).

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22 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Not a fan of the partial match but stuck with a couple in Getafe v A Madrid. 2.47 points on Morata at 3.65 (57B) and 2.39 on Felix at 4.3 (58B)

looks like Morata scored literally a minute or two after you posted this ?

 

I thought you might have fancied Salah in tonight's Liverpool game.  I have a bet on him to score.  

Edited by alexcaruso808
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5 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

looks like Morata scored literally a minute or two after you posted this

Wasn't matched at all until just before the off when I saw that both were matched for a bit, started typing the post and submitted just after kick off. To be fair he didn't score until the 15th minute but that's the drawback with the exchange bets, sometimes I'm only matched very close to the off. (Obviously there's quite a lot of selections where I don't get matched at all.)

7 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I thought you might have fancied Salah in tonight's Liverpool game.  I have a bet on him to score.  

I'm a slave to the numbers, will see what they say when the line ups are announced. He might be out of the 20-35 range so I might end up selling him (something that has been profitable so far, even if I get spanked in certain individual games).

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Well I got away with the Salah sell for a nice 41 point profit though lost more than that on my only other goal minutes sell with Vlahovic scoring a brace for Juve. Morata scored for a small gain from the two partial matches. If you'll forgive the flagrant after-timing I'm pleasantly surprised to find my 20/1 bet on Diaz to score from outside the area landed. I read a description of the goal and assumed he must have ran into the area but turns out he went out again before shooting!

I'm easing off on those sort of bets but read something that suggested he should never be as big as that in a game where Liverpool were strong favourites. Be interesting to see what price he is next time out.

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