Racing Chat - Saturday November 13th

[The Brigadier]

Six races on terrestrial TV on Saturday - 4 from Cheltenham and a brace from Lingfield. No rain in the forecast so the ground at Cheltenham is likely to ride on the soft side of good. Here’s my early thoughts and staking plan for the sextet. 

 

Cheltenham 1.40

Once more a disappointing turnout for a novice chase with only 4 due to go to post for this 2m grade 2 contest. It’s hard to look beyond Third Time Lucki who was so impressive at the October meeting when coasting home from subsequent Navan winner Buddy Rich. What impressed most about that victory was his effortless jumping and a similar round of jumping should see him come home an easy winner. Mick Pastor and Captain Tom Cat met in the Rising Stars Novices Chase last weekend at Wincanton with the latter coming out 2 1/4L to the good and despite the runner up that day being 5lb better off here can confirm the form and take runners up spot. 

THIRD TIME LUCKI to beat CAPTAIN TOM CAT 1 point straight forecast

 

Cheltenham 2.15

The feature race of the day and what a cracker it is. A maximum field of 20 go to post on perfect jumping ground for this years renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup run over 2m 4F 44yds. It has a wide open look to it with the Skelton’s novice from last year  Protektorat towards the top of the market along with Lalor who’s joined Paul Nicholls from Kayleigh Woolacott and been given a wind operation. Last year’s 1-2 Coole Cody and Spiritofthegames are back to renew rivalry with the latter now 8lb better off for 3 1/4L. The horse I like though did also run in the race last year when going off favourite and finishing 3rd beaten 4 1/4L and that’s Al Dancer. He’s has an excellent record fresh (1111) and has plenty of decent form on this track. He’s left Nigel Twiston Davies since the end of last season and joined the up and coming handler Sam Thomas, most famous for his association as a jockey with the great Denman. He’ll be ridden by his usual pilot Sam Twiston Davies and looks decent each way value to me. Galahad Quest is a horse at the foot of the weights that can also run well following an eye catching run at Wetherby a fortnight ago. With such a big field you’re going to need plenty of luck in running and I’ll be having a small saver on the aforementioned Coole Cody who as a habitual front runner will be out and away from any scrimmaging behind him and that may count for a lot here. 

AL DANCER 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5^th 123456

COOLE CODY 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 1/5^th 123456

 

Cheltenham 2.50

11 go to post for this 3 mile handicap hurdle with quite a few holding decent chances. The Skelton’s Proschema improved for a step up to this trip last time when runner up in the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby and has been shunted up 3lb for that fine effort. He’s a player here. Kansas City Chief was a shock winner of a similar contest at the last meeting but has been put up 5lb for that and this does look tougher so is overlooked here. There are doubts over the trip for Shannon Bridge and Valentino Dancer and I like the look of the handicap debutant Dragon Bones here. Trained by Ian Williams and ridden by 3lb conditional Charlie Todd he has been consistent as a novice winning 4 of his 6 starts (unseated when likely to have won on one of the other starts) and appeared to improve for the step up to this trip at the last meeting when a length runner up to an decent Irish novice. 10L away back in third that day was Fergal O’Brien’s Onagatheringstorm and he reappears today on 9lb better terms so shouldn’t be far away. 

DRAGON BONES 2 points each way @ 4/1 1/5 1234 William Hills

 

Lingfield 3.05

12 go to post for the listed Golden Rose Stakes run over 6F and I think there’s a horse here worth a good go at. Last years winner Good Effort, trained at Newmarket by Ismail Mohammed is three from three at the track and the best in at today’s weights. He was last seen racing at Belmont Park in the States on the dirt which didn’t seem to suit and back on his favourite track he can make all from stall 8. Jim Crowley comes in for the ride for the first time and with very little early pace on will no doubt hope to get across and lead them all a merry dance. 

GOOD EFFORT 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hills

 

Cheltenham 3.25

A 2m 5F handicap hurdle with the Dan Skelton trained Unexpected Party who. Add a mockery of his initial handicap mark a fortnight ago when coasting home in a Wetherby novices handicap hurdle.  He’s now 11lb higher in a better race and at the prices doesn’t appeal that much. Olly Murphy is having a real purple patch at the moment and he sends his Mackelduff here who impressed when winning at Aintree last month and has been put up 7lb for that effort. He won well that day and as this is only his 5th career start theatre may well still be improvement to come. There is a trip doubt about top weight Benson whilst  Gowel Road also has to conclusively prove he stays the trip as does Pyramid Place. 

MACKELDUFF 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hills

 

Lingfield 3.40

A 10F listed contest that sees the return of Group 1 Coronation Cup winner Pyledriver who has to carry a 7lb penalty here and at the prices doesn’t appeal to me with this race presumably been used  as a prep race for the Japan Cup. Last years winner Dubai Warrior has left John Gosden now and is in the care of David Loughnane but doesn’t look the same horse to be honest. The horse I like is Felix who’ s course figures read 122 and following a 119 day lay off can be competitive here. 

FELIX 2 points each way @ 7/2 BetVictor 1/5^th 123

 

 

 

 

[calva decoy]

Will give Cheltenham & rest of the jump meetings a miss whilst there's Summer jumping ground around most of the country .

305 Lingfield - JUDICIAL 9/1 ew  2nd 12/1

Won this race 2 years ago & from a similar high draw .

340 Lingfield - HARROVIAN 7/1 ew 2nd 9/1 

1 of 2 in the field for J.Gosden who's saddled the last 2 winners of the race .

Edited November 13, 2021 by calva decoy
results update

[fd1972uk]

Mainly made up of free bets. 

Utt 1517 Akkapenko 15/2

 

Lingfield

1245 Voltaic 9/2 (stupidly waited for bog as it was 7/1 last night) 

1505 Judicial 7/1 (was 17/2)

1540 Foxtal 15/2

 

Cheltenham

1305 Minella Encore 6/1

1415 Protekorat e/w 13/2 (wh 10am bog so odds may change) 

1555 Lady Excalibur 6/1

 

Chelt 1450 moneyback offers

Ballymilsy (3 sky) 

Dragon Bones (pp) 

 

Treble (wh 10am bog odds may change) 

Lin 1320 Pistoletto 7/2

Utt 1407 Shanty Alley 2/1

Wol 2000 Hashtagmetoo 9/4

 

 

Good luck all. 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 13, 2021 by fd1972uk

[Nigwilliam]

Ling 1245  Delicate Kiss 11/4 skybet. 

I did this one  on its last run at 18/1 to win but it disappointed. Hoping it can win today. 

[azzybear]

Park Street 12.10 cobblers dream 12.15 

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is:

2.42 Uttx Little River Bay 5/4

3.10 Weth First Impression 13/8

3.45 Weth Frau Georgia 9/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie with poss return of 40.93 pts

Singles:

1.25 Weth Earl Of the Cotswolds 1.5 pts win at 7/2

3.05 Lin Good Effort 2 points win at 3.85

3.55 Chelt Bonttay 1.5 pts win at 9/2

5.00 Wolv Elixsoft 0.5 pt win at 12/1

Total stakes = 9.5 points

There's a lot of racing today.  Good luck to all

[Bang on]

7.30 Wolv - Qaaraat ( still available 5/1 with bet365). ... 3rd 4/1 (beaten less than a length)

I have been following this horse (I keep an eye on trainer Antony Brittain). They seem to be backing it (they like a bet).  The horse is on a losing run of 26 ... but is now 11lb lower than its last winning mark.

Edited November 13, 2021 by Bang on

[fd1972uk]

Dragon bones has been pulled so went with agatheringstorm with pp. 

[azzybear]

riveara detel 12.38 last bet today 

[fd1972uk]

24 minutes ago, Bang on said:

7.30 Wolv - Qaaraat ( still available 5/1 with bet365).

I have been following this horse (I keep an eye on trainer Antony Brittain). They seem to be backing it (they like a bet).  The horse is on a losing run of 26 ... but is now 11lb lower than its last winning mark.

Yeah noticed that horse earlier, did just stick it on along with Glenquin Castle on a free bet double I had, so heres hoping. 

[Wildgarden]

26 minutes ago, Bang on said:

7.30 Wolv - Qaaraat ( still available 5/1 with bet365).

I have been following this horse (I keep an eye on trainer Antony Brittain). They seem to be backing it (they like a bet).  The horse is on a losing run of 26 ... but is now 11lb lower than its last winning mark.

also on my list.

[SirRavenous]

Got two selections both from Cheltenham

1415 Coole Cody

1450 Onagatheringstorm 

[fd1972uk]

Wow that favourite pulled off a horrendous jump that may have well xost him the race, got a tiny profit on him as he was placed but jeez. 

 

[fd1972uk]

Akkapenko gets me a small win so via free bets Im in small profit. Also place. 

Lady Excalibur pulled so not botger with other bet till maybe tomorrow. 

Waiting on qaaraat for a double. 

Will use pp freebets for tomorrow if Ibsee anything. Bit miffed I mever went for the winner at 1450, family names have been coming in recently but did opt for agathering storm, ahh well, maybe next time. 

[fd1972uk]

Can't find any odds but putting on a small bet on Demidova at Maronas, 930.

[Nigwilliam]

12 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Can't find any odds but putting on a small bet on Demidova at Maronas, 930.

Current 9/2 bet365 

[The Equaliser]

7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

2.42 Uttx Little River Bay 5/4

3.10 Weth First Impression 13/8

3.45 Weth Frau Georgia 9/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie with poss return of 40.93 pts

Singles:

1.25 Weth Earl Of the Cotswolds 1.5 pts win at 7/2

3.05 Lin Good Effort 2 points win at 3.85

3.55 Chelt Bonttay 1.5 pts win at 9/2

5.00 Wolv Elixsoft 0.5 pt win at 12/1

Total stakes = 9.5 points

There's a lot of racing today.  Good luck to all

RESULTS UPDATE

Only two winners in the Trixie which was a pity.  3 singles winners; wish I'd put them in a Trixie, which was good.  Overall net profit on the day was 15.85 pts.  This at last brings my cumulative profit for November to +14.61 Pheww! My B/wd  balance from 1.1.21 is -228.43

Class racing at Cheltenham tomorrrow and two class 3 races at Fontwell.  I will hopefully find some time to sort out a few selections

 

[fd1972uk]

2 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

Current 9/2 bet365 

Looks like sp was 9/1, mind you a sad end as el diablo was coasting and then something badly went wrong, heres hoping horse is ok but didnt look good. 

[Nigwilliam]

1 minute ago, fd1972uk said:

Looks like sp was 9/1, mind you a sad end as el diablo was coasting and then something badly went wrong, heres hoping horse is ok but didnt look good. 

Good call. Cheers.

[Nigwilliam]

9 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Looks like sp was 9/1, mind you a sad end as el diablo was coasting and then something badly went wrong, heres hoping horse is ok but didnt look good. 

Yeah,hope the injured horse is ok.