Racing Chat - Thursday July 8th

[The Brigadier]

The Newmarket July meeting kicks off tomorrow with the ground currently good to firm but with plenty of showers around we will have to monitor the ground conditions throughout the week. There’s also a race from Carlisle on terrestrial TV and here’s my thoughts on the ITV quintet:- 

 

Newmarket 150

Charlie Appleby’s Yibir has some smart form which ties in with the likes of Derby winner Adayar, Royal Ascot winner Alenquer and Irish Derby runner up Lone Eagle from earlier in the season and looks to hold a decent chance here for the boys in blue. Gelded since last seen he missed his engagement at Royal Ascot in the Queens Vase due to the very soft ground and comes here a fresh horse. His main danger is probably the Gosden’s Stowell who is best known for giving Rab Havlin an enforced holiday on his debut when ridden with kid gloves behind stable companion Polling Day. He’s obviously a smart sort as he’s won since at Ascot and ran 3rd in the Queen’s Vase behind Appleby’s Kemari but the Godolphin operation have a line to that form and can take this with Yibir who wouldn’t want too much rain to fall as he appears best on fast/good ground. 

YIBIR 2 points win @ 11/4 Bet365

 

Carlisle 205

A rare visit for the ITV cameras to Carlisle racecourse and this 6F fillies only handicap may go to the well handicapped bottom weight Velocistar trained by Steph Hollinshead and ridden by Megan Nicholls. She travelled down from her Staffordshire base to run a credible second at Newbury last week in a similar standard handicap and can actually race here today off of a 2lb lower mark (she goes up 3lb in future handicaps). Gometra Ginty is two from three at the track but that was over further and isn’t certain to be suited by the sharper trip. 

VELOCISTAR 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hill 

 

Newmarket 225

An excellent renewal of the Group 2 July Stakes with several of the Royal Ascot 2 year old races form lines represented. Bryan Smart’s Project Dante ran a stormer at the Royal meeting when chasing down Perfect Power and Go Bears Go in the Norfolk Stakes and that looks smart form now with the latter going in since in the Group 2 Railway Stakes at the Curragh. This is a step up in trip but that shouldn’t inconvenience this son of Showcasing and having won on good to soft wouldn’t mind a shower or two. Graham Lee has been in the saddle for both runs and is retained here. The Coventry Stakes form is represented by the 2nd Eldrickjones and the 5th Ebro River and both should run their races. The best outsider is maybe the Richard Hannon trained Lusail who drops back a furlong having won a 7F novices stakes race on this track from a well regarded Gosden horse. 

PROJECT DANTE 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Newmarket 300

A maximum field of 20 go to post for this 6F three year old only handicap which invariably throws up a decent sprinter although the last two winners were priced at 25/1 and 40/1. Likely favourite Boomshalaa has a lot going for him. Trained locally by Roger Varian he made his handicap debut in the 5F three year old handicap at Royal Ascot on heavy ground when beating all bar the winner Significantly. He’s up a furlong and 3lb here but looks sure to be in the mix especially if the ground eases a bit. Jumby was probably out his depth when running in the Commonwealth Cup last time and back in calmer waters Eve Johnson-Houghton’s top weight is not out of this. Neither is Karl Burke’s Spycatcher  who’s making his handicap debut here but has some smart form with the likes of Rohaan and Creative Force in the bag already. He looks the value each way play here but for the main selection it has to be Boomshalaa.

BOOMSHALAA 1 1/2 points each way @ 5/1 Betfred 1/5^th 12345

SPYCATCHER ½ point each way @ 16/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 12345

 

Newmarket 335

It’s hard to look beyond the Shadwell owned Al Aasy here in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes. Any showers will help this smooth travelling son of Sea The Stars  who is officially rated 7lb and upwards superior to his 4 rivals. Ultra impressive in two Group 3 victories at Newbury on easy ground in the Spring he was not disgraced when chasing home Pyledriver at Epsom in the Group 1 Coronation Cup, pulling some 7L clear of the remainder. He does seem best with some juice in the ground but I’m pretty certain if connections felt the ground was not to his liking the would pull him out. Sir Ron Priestley looks the pace angle here and his impressive victory from Pyledriver at the Rowley Mile course back in May looks decent form now. He has however flopped since and just maybe he was a it flattered by that form line with Pyledriver mak8ng his re-appearance. He still looks the main threat to the favourite whose price looks sure to contract further with every drop of rain at the July course. 

AL AASY 3 points win @ 4/6 William Hills

 

[yossa6133]

The owner of Popmaster emailed Ken Bruce to let him know it's running today (3:00 Newmarket), sounds like a tip to me! He's also in my tracker, so had a small bet @ 6/1 in an obviously competitive 18 runner race.

[Zilzalian]

Very interesting race the July stakes for 2yo with some surprising results from my speed figures so hoping for a decent payout 

1st and 2nd top figures go to        Dig Two                      9/1          129 & 124

3rd                                                Sam Maximus           33/1         121

4th                                                Project Dante              3/1          119

one to watch                                 Jadhlaan                    14/1         117++

 

Not sure what to make of Dig Two but single figure draws were no where.  Sam Maximus held my figures up.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[cannotbebeat]

Been sticking to regime so far 5/1 or below tenner over 5/1 fiver.

Newmarket
1.20 Desert 17/2

1.50 Stowell 15/8

2.25 Lusail 14/1

4.45 Dingle 8/1

Newbury
7.50 Poet Of Life 9/4

8.50 Cherish 13/8

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is:

1.50 Nm Stowell 2/1

2.05 Carl Velcistar 5/2

2.25 Nm Project Dante 10/3

one £1.50 = £6.00 win Trixie = poss return of £126.25

Singles:

1.20 Nm Snooze N Lose 3TBP £2 at 8.2 = £14.11 & Princess Shabnam 3TBP £2 at 3.2 = £4.31

2.25 Nm Ebro River (JD) £1 win at 17/2 = £9.50 Ret And Dig Two (TM) £1 win at 17/2

3.00 Nm Boomshala £2 win at 6.2 = £10.19

4.10 Nm Maximal £3 win at 3.75 = £8.09

4.45 Nm Legendary Day £2 win at 8.0 = £13.72

Total stakes = £19.00

Good luck to all today

 

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Very interesting race the July stakes for 2yo with some surprising results from my speed figures so hoping for a decent payout 

1st and 2nd top figures go to        Dig Two                      9/1          129 & 124

3rd                                                Sam Maximus           33/1         121

4th                                                Project Dante              3/1          119

one to watch                                 Jadhlaan                    14/1         117++

 

 

thoughts on the tv races

150 mandoob is a very quick animal

205 pennypot lane is a speculative punt

225 dig two (see above)

300 jadwaal must have a chance in this

335 al aasy is dodgy at that silly price so im not going to bother.

[azzybear]

asjad 2.50 

[roger2256]

July +10 

1pt level stakes win only 

16.45 Nmk Ambassadorial 25/1

Price as of now b365 

 

[black rabbit]

TENBURY WELLS   4 45  NEW   1/2 PT  WIN   14/1  BETFAIR 

VINYAGE POLLY  2 40  CARS   1/2  PT  WIN   28/1   BETFAIR 

 

 

P/L  +  115 PTS

[yossa6133]

5 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

The owner of Popmaster emailed Ken Bruce to let him know it's running today (3:00 Newmarket), sounds like a tip to me! He's also in my tracker, so had a small bet @ 6/1 in an obviously competitive 18 runner race.

Beaten a neck in 3rd, feels like getting 2/3 on 3 in 10.

Edited July 8, 2021 by yossa6133

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

1.50 Nm Stowell 2/1

2.05 Carl Velcistar 5/2

2.25 Nm Project Dante 10/3

one £1.50 = £6.00 win Trixie = poss return of £126.25

Singles:

1.20 Nm Snooze N Lose 3TBP £2 at 8.2 = £14.11 & Princess Shabnam 3TBP £2 at 3.2 = £4.31

2.25 Nm Ebro River (JD) £1 win at 17/2 = £9.50 Ret And Dig Two (TM) £1 win at 17/2

3.00 Nm Boomshala £2 win at 6.2 = £10.19

4.10 Nm Maximal £3 win at 3.75 = £8.09

4.45 Nm Legendary Day £2 win at 8.0 = £13.72

Total stakes = £19.00

Good luck to all today

 

 

 

 

Just had £2 2TBP at 3.70= £5.29 if it places on Highest Ground 3.35 Nm.  Put £1 on it to win at 11/1 with Bet365.  Who says I'm a gambler ??

 

 

Edited July 8, 2021 by The Equaliser

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Epsom 7.00

BILLY MILL 15/8

[The Equaliser]

22 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Just had £2 2TBP at 3.70= £5.29 if it places on Highest Ground 3.35 Nm.  Put £1 on it to win at 11/1 with Bet365.  Who says I'm a gambler ??

 

 

Looks like the experts got it wrong again; should have gone for Ron Priestley for a win/place bet

Two more for tonight:

7.00 Epsom Handytalk £2 win at 7.00 = £11.76 if it wins

7.20 Nb Badlands £2 win at 9/2 = £11 return if it wins

That's me done for the day.  Good job I didn't put Al Aasy in as my nap today  despite all the hype about it?

[The Brigadier]

22 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

The Newmarket July meeting kicks off tomorrow with the ground currently good to firm but with plenty of showers around we will have to monitor the ground conditions throughout the week. There’s also a race from Carlisle on terrestrial TV and here’s my thoughts on the ITV quintet:- 

 

Newmarket 150

Charlie Appleby’s Yibir has some smart form which ties in with the likes of Derby winner Adayar, Royal Ascot winner Alenquer and Irish Derby runner up Lone Eagle from earlier in the season and looks to hold a decent chance here for the boys in blue. Gelded since last seen he missed his engagement at Royal Ascot in the Queens Vase due to the very soft ground and comes here a fresh horse. His main danger is probably the Gosden’s Stowell who is best known for giving Rab Havlin an enforced holiday on his debut when ridden with kid gloves behind stable companion Polling Day. He’s obviously a smart sort as he’s won since at Ascot and ran 3rd in the Queen’s Vase behind Appleby’s Kemari but the Godolphin operation have a line to that form and can take this with Yibir who wouldn’t want too much rain to fall as he appears best on fast/good ground. 

YIBIR 2 points win @ 11/4 Bet365

 

Carlisle 205

A rare visit for the ITV cameras to Carlisle racecourse and this 6F fillies only handicap may go to the well handicapped bottom weight Velocistar trained by Steph Hollinshead and ridden by Megan Nicholls. She travelled down from her Staffordshire base to run a credible second at Newbury last week in a similar standard handicap and can actually race here today off of a 2lb lower mark (she goes up 3lb in future handicaps). Gometra Ginty is two from three at the track but that was over further and isn’t certain to be suited by the sharper trip. 

VELOCISTAR 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hill 

 

Newmarket 225

An excellent renewal of the Group 2 July Stakes with several of the Royal Ascot 2 year old races form lines represented. Bryan Smart’s Project Dante ran a stormer at the Royal meeting when chasing down Perfect Power and Go Bears Go in the Norfolk Stakes and that looks smart form now with the latter going in since in the Group 2 Railway Stakes at the Curragh. This is a step up in trip but that shouldn’t inconvenience this son of Showcasing and having won on good to soft wouldn’t mind a shower or two. Graham Lee has been in the saddle for both runs and is retained here. The Coventry Stakes form is represented by the 2nd Eldrickjones and the 5th Ebro River and both should run their races. The best outsider is maybe the Richard Hannon trained Lusail who drops back a furlong having won a 7F novices stakes race on this track from a well regarded Gosden horse. 

PROJECT DANTE 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Newmarket 300

A maximum field of 20 go to post for this 6F three year old only handicap which invariably throws up a decent sprinter although the last two winners were priced at 25/1 and 40/1. Likely favourite Boomshalaa has a lot going for him. Trained locally by Roger Varian he made his handicap debut in the 5F three year old handicap at Royal Ascot on heavy ground when beating all bar the winner Significantly. He’s up a furlong and 3lb here but looks sure to be in the mix especially if the ground eases a bit. Jumby was probably out his depth when running in the Commonwealth Cup last time and back in calmer waters Eve Johnson-Houghton’s top weight is not out of this. Neither is Karl Burke’s Spycatcher  who’s making his handicap debut here but has some smart form with the likes of Rohaan and Creative Force in the bag already. He looks the value each way play here but for the main selection it has to be Boomshalaa.

BOOMSHALAA 1 1/2 points each way @ 5/1 Betfred 1/5^th 12345

SPYCATCHER ½ point each way @ 16/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 12345

 

Newmarket 335

It’s hard to look beyond the Shadwell owned Al Aasy here in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes. Any showers will help this smooth travelling son of Sea The Stars  who is officially rated 7lb and upwards superior to his 4 rivals. Ultra impressive in two Group 3 victories at Newbury on easy ground in the Spring he was not disgraced when chasing home Pyledriver at Epsom in the Group 1 Coronation Cup, pulling some 7L clear of the remainder. He does seem best with some juice in the ground but I’m pretty certain if connections felt the ground was not to his liking the would pull him out. Sir Ron Priestley looks the pace angle here and his impressive victory from Pyledriver at the Rowley Mile course back in May looks decent form now. He has however flopped since and just maybe he was a it flattered by that form line with Pyledriver mak8ng his re-appearance. He still looks the main threat to the favourite whose price looks sure to contract further with every drop of rain at the July course. 

AL AASY 3 points win @ 4/6 William Hills

 

 Started well but finished poorly !! 2 winners from the 5 with a small profit of 3.17 points 

[The Equaliser]

53 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

 Started well but finished poorly !! 2 winners from the 5 with a small profit of 3.17 points 

Well done. You prompted me to back Velocister at Carlisle,  pity I didn't follow you on Yibir.  But I hate learning that horses have been gelded and I don't like the connections being rewarded with winning prize money, so I guess I wanted it to lose.

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Looks like the experts got it wrong again; should have gone for Ron Priestley for a win/place bet

Two more for tonight:

7.00 Epsom Handytalk £2 win at 7.00 = £11.76 if it wins

7.20 Nb Badlands £2 win at 9/2 = £11 return if it wins

That's me done for the day.  Good job I didn't put Al Aasy in as my nap today  despite all the hype about it?

RESULTS UPDATE

I don't know why it is but so often when I look at the results of the races where I make selections I quite often am not surprised to see the winner and just wonder to myself, why didn't I back that one?  I am hoping that I will improve as time goes by and start selecting the best horses to back.  One gets so confused with conflicting points of view and I need to learn to ignore them.

Anyway, just a place bet came in today so I incurred a loss of £19.65.  My new balance is £727.42 (Bank £1056.22)

Tons of top class racing tomorrow at Newmarket, Ascot and York.  Let's hope that I can find some decent selections to bet on

 

 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

RESULTS UPDATE

I don't know why it is but so often when I look at the results of the races where I make selections I quite often am not surprised to see the winner and just wonder to myself, why didn't I back that one?  I am hoping that I will improve as time goes by and start selecting the best horses to back.  One gets so confused with conflicting points of view and I need to learn to ignore them.

Anyway, just a place bet came in today so I incurred a loss of £19.65.  My new balance is £727.42 (Bank £1056.22)

Tons of top class racing tomorrow at Newmarket, Ascot and York.  Let's hope that I can find some decent selections to bet on

 

 

Little bit of friendly advice, You have lost over 300 quid of your bank, might i suggest you stop whatever it is your doing and find something different, seems to me other peoples opinions are losing your money. Might i also suggest you will never win backing favs in any form. the only thing you should be reading is the results section of the racing post weekender, watch (not listen) to as much racing as possible and have a notebook to hand, if you get a small population of horse from notes and back from your notes irrespective of price you can drop lucky, use Lucky 15s instead of trixies because if you get 1 winner they double the odds, you wouldn't believe the difference that makes especially if that 1 winner is a decent price. Many people are very wary of bigger priced horses when they should be wary of the short priced ones, al aasy today was just one example Charlton managed to get 2 odds on shots beaten yesterday. every day add up how many short priced horse get beat if you don't believe what i am saying. if you saw my betting book you would be horrified at the sheer amount of bets i have and the losers i get, but because i very rarely back favs so when i do win it wipes out my loses and produces a profit. Now I will contradict myself here--- @The Brigadier has a totally different approach to me, but I am guessing he is very measured it is obvious he knows his horses and he publishes them here so why not shadow his selections (or choose 3 or 4 of them) for a while?

[The Equaliser]

28 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Little bit of friendly advice, You have lost over 300 quid of your bank, might i suggest you stop whatever it is your doing and find something different, seems to me other peoples opinions are losing your money. Might i also suggest you will never win backing favs in any form. the only thing you should be reading is the results section of the racing post weekender, watch (not listen) to as much racing as possible and have a notebook to hand, if you get a small population of horse from notes and back from your notes irrespective of price you can drop lucky, use Lucky 15s instead of trixies because if you get 1 winner they double the odds, you wouldn't believe the difference that makes especially if that 1 winner is a decent price. Many people are very wary of bigger priced horses when they should be wary of the short priced ones, al aasy today was just one example Charlton managed to get 2 odds on shots beaten yesterday. every day add up how many short priced horse get beat if you don't believe what i am saying. if you saw my betting book you would be horrified at the sheer amount of bets i have and the losers i get, but because i very rarely back favs so when i do win it wipes out my loses and produces a profit. Now I will contradict myself here--- @The Brigadier has a totally different approach to me, but I am guessing he is very measured it is obvious he knows his horses and he publishes them here so why not shadow his selections (or choose 3 or 4 of them) for a while?

Very many thanks for your considerate and helpful advice.  For me the problem is knowing when to back a decent favourite that will run its race.  Sure, I get persuaded by the experts to back one horse over another which is based upon not only their choices but also the market and RP and Timeform ratings.  I also like to look at jockey bookings especially the jockeys who achieve something like a 20%+ strike rate in a normal season.  I seldom include favourites of less than even money because if a double comes in I like to at least get my Trixie stakes back.  I'll give your idea a go by making 4 selections instead of three.  However this will be a "Yankee" bet of 50p for 11 outcomes = £5.50.  For the singles I will use a stake of £2 which gives me scope to achieve better odds on the Betfair Exchange and I feel that the weighting of the stakes is proportionately superior .  The total stakes will be £13.50.  I can't promise to go for the outsiders as I haven't yet finished with backing horses at the front end of the market despite your well advised comments and me moaning about choosing the wrong horse(s).

Great Nap tip the other day with Gavi di Gavi at 20/1 

 

[Zilzalian]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Very many thanks for your considerate and helpful advice.  For me the problem is knowing when to back a decent favourite that will run its race.  Sure, I get persuaded by the experts to back one horse over another which is based upon not only their choices but also the market and RP and Timeform ratings.  I also like to look at jockey bookings especially the jockeys who achieve something like a 20%+ strike rate in a normal season.  I seldom include favourites of less than even money because if a double comes in I like to at least get my Trixie stakes back.  I'll give your idea a go by making 4 selections instead of three.  However this will be a "Yankee" bet of 50p for 11 outcomes = £5.50.  For the singles I will use a stake of £2 which gives me scope to achieve better odds on the Betfair Exchange and I feel that the weighting of the stakes is proportionately superior .  The total stakes will be £13.50.  I can't promise to go for the outsiders as I haven't yet finished with backing horses at the front end of the market despite your well advised comments and me moaning about choosing the wrong horse(s).

Great Nap tip the other day with Gavi di Gavi at 20/1 

 

I gave you advice re lucky 15's you countered with a 50p yankee =5.50. a 40p lucky 15 =6.00 with a chance of one winner double the odds, consider you get only 1 winner on your yankee at 6/1 you win nothing, a loss of 5.50 Whereas a 40p lucky 15 you return 5.20 a loss of just 80p.

[MCLARKE]

20 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Very many thanks for your considerate and helpful advice.

Good advice from @Zilzalian, personally I started making money when I stopped following tipsters and RP ratings etc, I'm sure they are very good but this will be factored in to the prices so you are unlikely to find value by following them. 

You often need to go against the crowd to make money, ignore those with obvious good form last time, well known jockeys etc. 

Paper trade your strategy before staking real money.

I would ignore multiple bets and concentrate on perhaps 3 single bets a day, using proportional staking should mean plenty of winning days.

Only use BOG bookies and ensure that you get the best price available, otherwise don't bet.

[Zilzalian]

29 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Good advice from @Zilzalian, personally I started making money when I stopped following tipsters and RP ratings etc, I'm sure they are very good but this will be factored in to the prices so you unlikely to find value by following them. 

You often need to go against the crowd to make money, ignore those with obvious good form last time, well known jockeys etc. 

Paper trade your strategy before staking real money.

I would ignore multiple bets and concentrate on perhaps 3 single bets a day, using proportional staking should mean plenty of winning days.

Only use BOG bookies and ensure that you get the best price available, otherwise don't bet.

You are indeed correct about "win bets only" that is the bookies biggest loser. However, multiple bets are useful for those punters that don't have much money to spend on betting and its a good way of having a fun bet especially on tv races for small stakes. a good example is tomorrow ,11 races, a couple of lucky 15's (in tomorrows case 3) and you get a horse to watch in each race with a chance of getting a half decent payout..Although my main punt is win bets, i always do multiples as well (40p lucky 15s mainly cost 6 quid) because i get a lot of pleasure/fun out of them mainly because i put bigger prices on them. I Never back a jockey, there is not a jockey on the planet that can get a horse to go faster but there are many that can get them beat including the tops jocks.

[MCLARKE]

I agree with you about jockeys, although with some of my systems I will exclude any horses that are ridden by claimers.