harry_rag Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Rangers Celtic Morelos 20 21 20.5 2.97 2.68 3.27 3.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Troyes Monaco Ben Yedder 26 29 27.5 2.36 2.13 2.60 2.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Burnley Leeds Woods 22 24 23 2.71 2.44 2.98 2.4 Burnley Leeds Bamford 24 26 25 2.54 2.29 2.80 2.55 Spurs Watford Son 24 25 24.5 2.58 2.32 2.84 2.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Union Berlin BMG Kruse 21 22 21.5 2.86 2.58 3.15 3.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Barcelona Getafe Depay 27 28 27.5 2.36 2.13 2.60 1.91 Barcelona Getafe Braithwaite 23 23 23 2.71 2.44 2.98 2.5 Barcelona Getafe Griezmann 23 25 24 2.62 2.36 2.89 2.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Wolves Man U Fernandes 20 23 21.5 2.86 2.58 3.15 2.5 Wolfsburg RB Leipzig Weghorst 20 23 21.5 2.86 2.58 3.15 2.875 Wolfsburg RB Leipzig Silva 24 27 25.5 2.50 2.25 2.75 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Genoa Napoli Insigne 27 29 28 2.33 2.10 2.57 2.875 Sassuolo Sampdoria Caputo 25 25 25 2.54 2.29 2.80 2.5 Sassuolo Sampdoria Quagliarella 22 25 23.5 2.67 2.40 2.93 2.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 After 87 starting selections the data is starting to look a bit more realistic and reliable, with 30 scorers getting 36 goals. Playing at the "true" odds implied by the spreads would have made for a return of plus or minus 8.19 points (with layers showing the profit). Laying at the target lay odds would have made a profit of 14.93 points, thought I've only managed to get matched on 8 of the 87 players. I'm around £42.89 up from trying to lay each selection to £10 (probably slightly more as I sometimes have been matched at less than the target odds). So at least this hasn't been an entirely "paper trade" exercise. Backing at the target back odds would have cost you just 0.31 points, suggesting perhaps that the back odds are actually closer to being the true odds! Selling would have shown a profit of 308 points, buying a loss of 459 points. An average profit of 3.54 points per bet from selling should probably be achievable long term, even from selling at these lower prices. I'm coming to the conclusion that I've identified a profitable laying strategy that may not be viable in terms of time and effort getting matched, but it may be possible to derive a less profitable but viable laying method. I also think you're more likely to be matched at viable back odds on BF than lay odds. Anytime goalscorers is my most profitable fixed odds market so far this year, with just under half of the profit coming from the exchange. Finally, it supports the view that player goal minutes is a viable market to be a seller in, even at lower prices. Outside of rugby union it's clearly my most profitable market as a seller. So, all useful grist to the mill so far that supports certain assumptions but may help me refine my approach to laying, backing and selling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 1, 2021 Author Share Posted September 1, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Kazakhstan Ukraine Yaremchuk 24 27 25.5 2.50 2.25 2.75 2.375 Kazakhstan Ukraine Yarmolenko 25 27 26 2.47 2.22 2.71 2.625 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 2, 2021 Author Share Posted September 2, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Hungary England Sterling 18 21 19.5 3.10 2.79 3.41 Sweden Spain Morata 20 22 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 2, 2021 Author Share Posted September 2, 2021 Lay part matched on Morata for 3.5 points at 2.62. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 5, 2021 Author Share Posted September 5, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Belarus Wales Bale 28 30 29 2.27 2.04 2.50 2.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 5, 2021 Author Share Posted September 5, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best England Andorra Saka 31 33 32 2.12 1.90 2.33 2.1 England Andorra Lingard 32 33 32.5 2.09 1.88 2.30 1.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 6, 2021 Author Share Posted September 6, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Bolton Burton Doyle 26 28 27 2.40 2.16 2.64 2.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 7, 2021 Author Share Posted September 7, 2021 Azerbaijan Portugal A Silva 28 30 29 2.27 2.04 2.50 2 Azerbaijan Portugal Fernandes 24 25 24.5 2.58 2.32 2.84 2.3 Azerbaijan Portugal Jota 26 27 26.5 2.43 2.19 2.67 2.68 10 point lays matched on Silva and Jota at 2.04 and 2.18 respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 7, 2021 Author Share Posted September 7, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Austria Scotland Arnautovic 22 24 23 2.71 2.44 2.98 2.625 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 10, 2021 Author Share Posted September 10, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Lorient Lille Yilmaz 22 23 22.5 2.76 2.48 3.04 2.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best St Johnstone Rangers Morelos 23 25 24 2.62 2.36 2.89 2.3 St Johnstone Rangers Roofe 20 21 20.5 2.97 2.68 3.27 2.5 C Palace Spurs Kane 27 29 28 2.33 2.10 2.57 2.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 Matched for 10 points lay of Roofe at 2.6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 On 8/30/2021 at 1:20 PM, harry_rag said: After 87 starting selections the data is starting to look a bit more realistic and reliable, with 30 scorers getting 36 goals. After 104 (40 players scoring 48 goals) I'm starting to feel the data is less reliable again due to it having swung the other way! Clearly starting with 17 players who all failed to score was unusual; my suspicion now is that we've got a higher than average number of goals being scored. Obviously it will help to get a bigger sample so I'll press on to at least 200. What the data currently suggests is that the "true" price is fairly accurate whereas my experience suggests, in the long run, it will be too low. Backing at the true price would have pretty much seen you break even (-0.36 points with an ROI of -0.35%). I expected it to be a slightly bigger negative than that. Laying at the "lay" odds and backing at the "back" odds (both with a 10% edge on the "true" price) would have been profitable. 8.8 points from laying with an ROI of 6.17% and 10.8 points from backing with an ROI of 10.38%. I suspect it would be much easier to get matched on the back than the lay (having only been matched on 12 players myself). I think, with a big enough sample, I can get a better handle on using the spreads to frame a "true" fixed odds price. I just don't expect the starting notion of that true price to be as accurate as it currently looks (based on nearly 500 real money sells, albeit at higher prices). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 Bigger sample needed @harry_rag - whether you're ahead or behind right now harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, Torque said: Bigger sample needed @harry_rag - whether you're ahead or behind right now Very much so; any idea what sort of sample size becomes trustworthy (dealing with roughly even money to 2/1 shots, average odds say 2.6)? My guesses as to what the results might look like are backed up by many 100s of real money and paper traded bets but at shorter average odds. I'm interested to see where this leads and think it will be useful for me. I've long used the spreads as a metric to identify possible value fixed odds prices which is definitely worthwhile but, having cottoned onto the wisdom of selling more often than buying, I've realised that the spreads are generally pitched slightly too high so I need to recalibrate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 About 10,000 bets at those odds, assuming a yield of 2%. If the yield is 5%, about 2,000 bets would be enough. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 Thanks. 10,000 bets would be a stretch (I'm not as young as I was) but then I wouldn't carry on too long with anything only showing a potential 2% edge. I'm tracking multiple things here (true, lay and back odds) and I'm hoping it will throw up something that would show closer to a 10% edge (as backing at the "back" odds currently is), Oh, and that thing being something that is achievable in practice would be nice as well! So quite a modest ambition all told! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 If you can sustain a 10% edge, 500 bets would be enough. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 (edited) 15 hours ago, harry_rag said: I think, with a big enough sample, I can get a better handle on using the spreads to frame a "true" fixed odds price. 12 hours ago, harry_rag said: Thanks. 10,000 bets would be a stretch (I'm not as young as I was) Run a monte carlo simulation in excel, You could do an estimated 10000 random sims for a year over a random 10 year span (100000 trials) on a decent computer in about 10~20 mins Edited September 12, 2021 by Valiant Thor harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 12, 2021 Author Share Posted September 12, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Sampdoria Inter Martinez 26 29 27.5 2.36 2.13 2.60 2.4 Sampdoria Inter Dzeko 22 25 23.5 2.67 2.40 2.93 2.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 12, 2021 Author Share Posted September 12, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Espanyol A Madrid Suarez 21 23 22 2.81 2.53 3.09 2.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 12, 2021 Author Share Posted September 12, 2021 Matched for 3.42 at 2.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 12, 2021 Author Share Posted September 12, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Osasuna Valencia Koke 24 25 24.5 2.58 2.32 2.84 2.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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