Anytime Goalscorer Experiment

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Norwich	Liverpool	Origi	22	23	22.5	2.76	2.48	3.04	3.3

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Levante	Celta Vigo	Aspas	22	24	23	2.71	2.44	2.88	2.7
A Bilbao	Vallecano	Marti	22	22	22	2.81	2.53	3.09	3.25

[harry_rag]

20 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I must be bonkers but as this is a relatively quiet betting day for me (no early games and no rugby or NFL) I've had a go at laying players at best price on Odds Checker. 6 games in Italy and Spain, I've layed any player who is no bigger than 3/1. That's seen me lay a total of 37 players (for £3 each). None matched so far, I'll give an update on how it goes. 

Matched on 9 players, 7 fully and 2 for a negligible amount. 3 players scored so 6 winning bets for a profit of 4.13 points.

I'll keep this up and see how it performs and how long it takes to get matched on 100 selections. It will be something I do on quieter days (meaning probably not at weekends). Early days but it looks like a much more viable strategy than trying to lay at my target lay odds.

[harry_rag]

Well it's certainly a labour intensive activity! Just put up 62 lays across the 8 games in Spain and Italy plus the PSG game. Might need some sort of criteria to limit the selections per game or per day. I've reduced the stake to £2 to save having to deposit more funds to cover the liabilities. The main purpose of this is to see how often the bets get matched and whether the returns are encouraging.

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Spezia	Juventus	Dybala	32	34	33	2.07	1.86	2.28	2.15
Spezia	Juventus	Kean	28	31	29.5	2.24	2.02	2.47	2.2

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Man U	West Ham	Martial	25	25	25	2.54	2.29	2.80	2.875
AC Milan	Venezia	Rebic	36	34	35	1.99	1.79	2.19	2.15
AC Milan	Venezia	Leao	25	25	25	2.54	2.29	2.80	2.6
AC Milan	Venezia	Diaz	22	21	21.5	2.86	2.58	3.15	3
Metz	PSG	Neymar	30	31	30.5	2.19	1.97	2.41	1.909
Metz	PSG	Icardi	30	31	30.5	2.19	1.97	2.41	1.95

Waiting on line ups for the remaining Italian game then 2 late Spanish games.

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Cagliari	Empoli	Pedro	31	32	31.5	2.14	1.93	2.35	2.35
Cagliari	Empoli	Balde	19	22	20.5	2.97	2.68	3.27	3.5

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
R Madrid	Mallorca	Junior	22	22	22	2.81	2.53	3.09	2.375

[harry_rag]

Selection	Bets	Winners	P/L	ROI
Back at “fair” odds	180	64	-13.58	-7.54%
Lay at “lay” odds	180	116	27.82	11.40%
Back at “back” odds	180	64	2.85	1.59%
Back at best odds	180	64	-15.59	-8.66%
Back if best >”back” odds	82	27	-7.66	-9.34%
Matched Lays	18	10	13.68	8.40%
Sell player goal mins	180	126	671	15.29%
Buy player goal mins	180	49	-980	-20.82%

Current state of play. I was part-matched for 1 losing lay last night (0.37 points on Diaz). With that, I'll draw a line on trying to get matched at the "lay" odds on the basis that, whilst it would be profitable, it's not viable given how infrequently I get matched. I could demonstrate that laying every player at 1.01 would be profitable but it would be a waste of time if the bets were never matched. A 10% match rate is better than that but not good enough for the effort involved.

I got fully matched on 12 out of 62 "best price" lays yesterday making it 21/99 in total. 21 matched bets in 2 days is obviously more promising than 18 over 2 months! I'm 4.65 points up to matched stakes with an ROI of 5.73% but 0.11 points down to level stakes with an ROI of -0.52%. The main reason being I was only matched for 5p on the biggest priced loser (3.75).

Given that backing at best odds is showing a loss of 8.66% it seems worth carrying on with the trial of laying them for a bit longer. There's a few games to go at today.

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Sampdoria	Napoli	Osimhen	21	22	21.5	2.86	2.58	3.15	2.4
Torino	Lazio	Immobile	31	32	31.5	2.14	1.93	2.35	2.1

[harry_rag]

Best price lays update: matched on 10 out of 42* yesterday with only 2 players scoring so a good day to be laying.

Level stakes return after 31 bets is +4.99 points with an ROI of 8.59%.

* TBC - I haven't got my note of how many lays I put up to hand.

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Greuther Fürth	B Munich	Muller	20	23	21.5	2.86	2.58	3.15	2.5
Greuther Fürth	B Munich	Sane	20	23	21.5	2.86	2.58	3.15	3

As posted elsewhere, I've backed Davies to score at 15/2 as he appears to be playing further forward. In terms of the best price lays, I've so far been matched for 2 points on Gnabry (on the bench) at 2.3 and on Sane at 2.86 (since drifted from 15/8 to 2/1 best price). Also matched partially for 1.37 points on Muller at 2.3. I'll update if anything else is matched before kick off.

Generally these lays don't lend themselves to being posted on here because of the timing issues but this is pretty much the only game in town today.

[harry_rag]

Also matched on Lewandowski for 2 points at 1.25.

[harry_rag]

A bit of good fortune yesterday with 3 out of 4 winning lays. The only player to score was Muller who was the only partial match. I also managed to successfully lay Lewandowski who failed to score for the first time in 19 games!

Level stakes return after 35 bets is +6.63 points with an ROI of 10.56%.

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Chelsea	Man C	Lukaku	21	23	22	2.81	2.53	3.09	2.7
Reading	Middlesbro	Sporar	20	20	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	3.25

Matched on a 2 point lay of Ronaldo in the Man U v Villa game at 1.72.

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Alaves	A Madrid	Suarez	29	31	30	2.22	1.99	2.44	2.3

Griezmann just below the 20-35 range I'm tracking but matched for a 2 point lay of him at 3.25

[harry_rag]

And 2 points on Suarez at 2.4.

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Spezia	AC Milan	Giroud	30	29	29.5	2.24	2.02	2.47	2.25

[harry_rag]

Matched lay of Giroud for 2 points at 2.2.

[harry_rag]

2 matched in the RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin game, both for 2 points.

Silva at 2.1 and Poulsen at 2.7

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Everton	Norwich	Rondon	23	26	24.5	2.58	2.32	2.84	2.65
Leeds	West Ham	Moreno	19	21	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	3.5
Leeds	West Ham	Antonio	23	26	24.5	2.58	2.32	2.84	2.6
Leicester	Burnley	Vardy	29	31	30	2.22	1.99	2.44	2.2

[harry_rag]

Matched on 5 in the 3:00 Prem games, all for 2 points.

Antonio at 2.54 (West Ham)

Sarr at 3.25 and King at 3.25 (Watford)

Rondon at 2.64 and Gray at 3.85 (Everton)

 

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Inter	Atalanta	Martinez	25	26	25.5	2.50	2.25	2.75	2.45
Inter	Atalanta	Dzeko	21	21	21	2.92	2.62	3.21	2.5

[harry_rag]

Matched on Martinez for 2 points at 2.54

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Brentford	Liverpool	Salah	31	33	32	2.12	1.90	2.33	2.15
Brentford	Liverpool	Mane	21	24	22.5	2.76	2.48	3.04	2.7
Brentford	Liverpool	Jota	20	22	21	2.92	2.62	3.21	2.7
BMG	Dortmund	Malen	19	21	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	3.5
BMG	Dortmund	Moukoko	19	21	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	3.9

Matches so far are 2 points on Salah at 2.14, 2 on Malen at 3.1 and 2 on Moukoko at 3.7.

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Sevilla	Espanyol	En-Nesyri	27	29	28	2.33	2.10	2.57	1.909

[harry_rag]

Few late matches to finish the day off.

Genoa v Verona: 1.84 on Destro at 3.4

Real Madrid v Villarreal: 2 points on Benzema at 1.9 and 2 on Junior at 2.86

[harry_rag]

Laying at best odds (maximum 4.0)

Update for Saturday, 18 bets posted on here, 12 winning lays and the level stakes profit was 1.19 points.

Update for Sunday, 20 bets not posted on here, 8 winning lays and the level stakes loss was 11.6 points.

After Saturday, the overall return was +7.82 points from 53 bets with an ROI of 8.29%

After yesterday it's -3.78 points from 73 bets with an ROI of -2.9%.

Conclusion; yesterday was illustrative of what a bad day can look like following this strategy. Carry on with the experiment to the current minimum stakes level.

I won't be posting the selections on here, it's just too much time and effort given that selections can be matched any time up to kick off, especially at weekend when there are so many games.

[harry_rag]

Tracking players with a spread price between 20 and 35

Selection	Bets	Winners	P/L	ROI
Back at “fair” odds	211	79	-6.78	-3.21%
Lay at “lay” odds	211	132	24.48	8.51%
Back at “back” odds	211	79	13.43	6.37%
Back at best odds	211	79	-10.26	-4.86%
Back if best >”back” odds	100	33	-10.79	-10.79%
Matched Lays	18	10	13.68	8.40%
Sell player goal mins	211	147	683	13.37%
Buy player goal mins	211	58	-1042	-19.03%

The data's still quite volatile here so I'm going to carry on gathering it for a while longer yet but I'm not going to post the individual players from now on as it serves no real purpose. Thoughts so far.

"Fair" odds: as expected (given that selling player goal minutes seems to be profitable) the fair odds are not a million miles away but are slightly too low. It remains my expectation that the ROI for backing at the fair odds will be slightly worse than above once a bigger sample has been collected. 

"Lay" odds: As already stated, laying at that price would be profitable but not viable give how infrequently I get matched.

"Back" odds: Monitor for now, as per the above I don't expect the ROI to be as favourable as it is so far in the long run.

Best odds: Laying would still be profitable based on this sample but is in the red after yesterday in terms of the real money experiment. As per previous post I'm carrying on laying best prices up to a maximum of 4 to see how it goes.

Selling: Worth noting the 683 point profit if you'd sold every selection. I currently only sell at 35 or above so it might be worth lowering my minimum price criteria, though not as far as 20 as that would generate too many bets. 

 

[harry_rag]

On 9/27/2021 at 12:48 PM, harry_rag said:

After Saturday, the overall return was +7.82 points from 53 bets with an ROI of 8.29%

After yesterday it's -3.78 points from 73 bets with an ROI of -2.9%.

4 profitable days to see the experiment through to month end; level stakes profit is 8.87 points with an ROI of 4.72% after 103 bets (in 10 days).

Conclusion; the approach is viable (in terms of number of bets being matched) but too early to say whether it will be profitable in the long term. I'm going to carry on but set a bank of 100 points. Stake will be 1% of bank, so will start at 1 point and rise as the bank increases. Minimum stake will be 1 point even if the bank falls below starting level. See how that goes over the course of October.

Average odds laid have been 2.823 so my average odds (if you view it as me backing the players not to score) have been 1.548.

[harry_rag]

Quick update with 2 weeks left in October.

Tracking players with a spread price between 20 and 35

 

Selection	Bets	Winners	P/L	ROI
Back at “fair” odds	272	105	1.93	0.71%
Lay at “lay” odds	272	167	22.05	5.96%
Back at “back” odds	272	105	29.11	10.70%
Back at best odds	272	105	-6.01	-2.21%
Back if best >”back” odds	119	38	-16.04	-13.47%
Matched Lays	18	10	13.68	8.40%
Sell player goal mins	272	187	596	9.05%
Buy player goal mins	272	79	-1038	-14.76%

Taken at face value the current data suggests the following.

The "fair" odds are extremely accurate.

Laying at the "lay" odds would be profitable but, as has been established, not viable given the difficulty in getting matched.

Backing at the "back" odds would be the most profitable fixed odds strategy. This is interesting as I suspect it would be a lot easier to get matched on the backs than the lays.

Backing at the best odds would incur a small loss (so laying these prices would just about be profitable after commission).

Selling on the spreads remains profitable and buying would incur huge losses.

Laying at best odds (maximum 4.0)

After 156 bets I'm 17.64 points up with an ROI of 3.03%. To level stakes I'm 3.13 points up with an ROI of 1.06%. I'm 5.84 points down in October (5.74 to level stakes). So the jury's still out on this. It's a lot of work for a fairly modest return.