Anytime Goalscorer Experiment

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Leeds	Liverpool	Salah	32	34	33	2.07	1.86	2.28	1.95
Leeds	Liverpool	Mane	21	22	21.5	2.86	2.58	3.15	2.7
Leeds	Liverpool	Jota	22	22	22	2.81	2.53	3.09	2.8
Bochum	H Berlin	Belfodil	20	22	21	2.92	2.62	3.21	3.5

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Sevilla	RB Salzburg	En-Nesyri	28	31	29.5	2.24	2.02	2.47	1.91
Young Boys	Man U	Fernandes	19	21	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	2.4

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Barcelona	B Munich	Depay	28	30	29	2.27	2.04	2.50	2.75
Malmo	Juventus	Morata	29	30	29.5	2.24	2.02	2.47	2.4
Malmo	Juventus	Dybala	27	28	27.5	2.36	2.13	2.60	2.4
Villarreal	Atalanta	Moreno	24	26	25	2.54	2.29	2.80	2.5
Lille	Wolfsburg	Weghorst	22	23	22.5	2.76	2.48	3.04	2.7

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Inter	R Madrid	Martinez	22	24	23	2.71	2.44	2.98	2.7
Inter	R Madrid	Benzema	25	28	26.5	2.43	2.19	2.67	2.5
A Madrid	Porto	Suarez	24	27	25.5	2.50	2.25	2.75	2.25
Liverpool	AC Milan	Salah	32	35	33.5	2.05	1.84	2.25	1.833
Liverpool	AC Milan	Jota	21	24	22.5	2.76	2.48	3.04	2.625
Man C	RB Leipzig	Torres	27	28	27.5	2.36	2.13	2.60	2.5
Man C	RB Leipzig	Mahrez	24	27	25.5	2.50	2.25	2.75	2.625

[harry_rag]

Matched for a 10 point lay of Suarez at 2.3 (was shorter at "SP" but I put some lays up at prices earlier on).

[harry_rag]

I've pulled the bets/returns into a table so it's easier to post updates from now on.

Selection	Bets	Winners	P/L	ROI
Back at “fair” odds	126	47	-5.19	-4.12%
Lay at “lay” odds	126	79	15.69	9.19%
Back at “back” odds	126	47	6.89	5.47%
Back at best odds	126	47	-7.52	-5.97%
Back if best >”back” odds	55	20	-0.89	-1.61%
Matched Lays	14	10	20.39	13.06%
Sell player goal mins	126	87	240	7.76%
Buy player goal mins	126	38	-464	-13.95%

"Fair" odds = those implied by the mid-point of the spread

"Lay" odds = "Fair" odds less a 10% edge

"Back" odds = "Fair" odds plus a 10% edge

Best odds = best readily available to me on Oddschecker

All bets recorded to a 1 point stake except the matched lays (where I was fully or partly matched on a requested 10 point lay).

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
R Betis	Celtic	Iglesias	27	29	28	2.33	2.10	2.57	2.3
D Zagreb	West Ham	Antonio	21	23	22	2.81	2.53	3.09	2.625
Galatasaray	Lazio	Immobile	33	35	34	2.03	1.82	2.23	2.25

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Leicester	Napoli	Iheanacho	19	21	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	2.8
PSV	R Sociedad	Zahavi	19	21	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	2.875
PSV	R Sociedad	Isak	19	21	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	2.75
Rangers	Lyon	Morelos	19	22	20.5	2.97	2.68	3.27	3.2

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
H Berlin	G Furth	Belfodil	23	26	24.5	2.58	2.32	2.84	2.875
Sassuolo	Torino	Beradi	27	28	27.5	2.36	2.13	2.60	2.625
Sassuolo	Torino	Raspadori	21	22	21.5	2.86	2.58	3.15	2.75
Celta Vigo	Cadiz	Aspas	30	33	31.5	2.14	1.93	2.35	2.18
Newcastle	Leeds	Bamford	24	26	25	2.54	2.29	2.80	2.5

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Wolves	Brentford	Jimemez	26	27	26.5	2.43	2.19	2.67	2.625

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Genoa	Fiorentina	Vlahovic	27	28	27.5	2.36	2.13	2.60	2.75

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
B Munich	Bochum	Gnabry	27	29	28	2.33	2.10	2.57	2.25
B Munich	Bochum	Muller	24	27	25.5	2.50	2.25	2.75	2.25
B Munich	Bochum	Sane	24	24	24	2.62	2.36	2.89	2.8

[harry_rag]

Matched for 5.07 points on Gnabry at 2.1 and 0.23 points on Sane at 2.36.

It does illustrate the issue of laying at the target odds; I'm confident it would be a profitable strategy but I only end up being matched on around 10% of all selections and even less where I'm fully matched.

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
A Madrid	A Bilbao	Griezmann	19	22	20.5	2.97	2.68	3.27	3.1

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Inter	Bologna	Correa	23	24	23.5	2.67	2.40	2.93	2.6

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Koln	RB Leipzig	A Silva	28	30	29	2.27	2.04	2.50	2.625
A Villa	Everton	Ings	23	25	24	2.62	2.36	2.89	2.7

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Mallorca	Villareal	Dia	20	23	21.5	2.86	2.58	3.15	3.25

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
West Ham	Man U	Ronaldo	33	35	34	2.03	1.82	2.23	2.05
Brighton	Leicester	Vardy	19	21	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	3.15

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Stuttgart	Leverkusen	Marmoush	23	26	24.5	2.58	2.32	2.84	3.4
Stuttgart	Leverkusen	Schick	29	30	29.5	2.24	2.02	2.47	2.625

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Matched on Schick for a whopping 0.24 points at 1.93.

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Dortmund	Union Berlin	Malen	20	22	21	2.92	2.62	3.21	2.625
Dortmund	Union Berlin	Reus	21	21	21	2.92	2.62	3.21	2.8

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Verona	Roma	Abraham	21	23	22	2.81	2.53	3.09	2.75

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
R Betis	Espanyol	Jose	19	22	20.5	2.97	2.68	3.27	2.75

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Wolfsburg	E Frankfurt	Weghorst	30	32	31	2.16	1.95	2.38	2.15

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Selection	Bets	Winners	P/L	ROI
Back at “fair” odds	157	56	-12.59	-8.02%
Lay at “lay” odds	157	101	24.93	11.72%
Back at “back” odds	157	56	1.75	1.12%
Back at best odds	157	56	-14.82	-9.44%
Back if best >”back” odds	71	24	-6.26	-8.82%
Matched Lays	17	10	14.26	8.80%
Sell player goal mins	157	111	633	16.52%
Buy player goal mins	157	43	-917	-22.24%

Latest figures are more in line with my expectations with backing at the "back" odds moving closer to a break even proposition rather than a profitable one. In terms of potential strategies my current take is as follows;

LAYING: Laying at the "lay" odds would be profitable but I've only been matched on 17 out of 157 players and only fully matched on 10 of them so I'd say it's not really viable. You could try laying at the "fair" odds but I'm not sure that would increase the matched rate that much. Laying at the best odds on Oddschecker could be a viable strategy but I suspect it's already a popular one judging by how often you can see a lot of players on offer at the exact same price. I suspect some people simply copy the OC odds and put them up on BF.

BACKING: If it does turn out that the "back" odds are, in reality, closer to the genuine true odds then I'd need to revise my idea of what is the minimum price I should be looking to back at. It might be a stretch to get on at true odds plus a 10% edge but I suspect it would happen more often than getting matched on a lay bet with the same edge. I'll rethink when the sample size gets to 200 (in terms of possibly putting up some small trial back requests to see if they get matched).

SELLING: Maybe the blindingly obvious is staring me in the face and the solution is simply to forget about backing or laying in the fixed odds markets and just sell. I'll do some analysis of profit by price in terms of seeing if there's a sensible minimum price point (it takes a lot longer to recover a big loss with winning sells at 20 relative to at 35).

BUYING: Don't even go there!

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Udinese	Napoli	Osimhen	23	24	23.5	2.67	2.40	2.93	2.625
Udinese	Napoli	Insigne	20	20	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	2.875

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Barcelona	Granada	Demir	22	22	22	2.81	2.53	3.09	3.15
Barcelona	Granada	Coutinho	19	21	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	2.5

[harry_rag]

I must be bonkers but as this is a relatively quiet betting day for me (no early games and no rugby or NFL) I've had a go at laying players at best price on Odds Checker. 6 games in Italy and Spain, I've layed any player who is no bigger than 3/1. That's seen me lay a total of 37 players (for £3 each). None matched so far, I'll give an update on how it goes. 

In quite a few cases I'm offering the best price so far. It would be nice to get matched on a few players who come on as subs as that would mean there was definitely some value in the lay. So far, laying at best odds would have returned an ROI of just over 10% (assuming you were matched on every selection).

 

[harry_rag]

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Getafe	A Madrid	Suarez	22	23	22.5	2.76	2.48	3.04	2.6

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Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Fiorentina	Inter	Martinez	24	26	25	2.54	2.29	2.80	2.5
Fiorentina	Inter	Dzeko	19	21	20	3.03	2.73	3.34	2.5