Player Assist Minutes - Sell Experiment

[harry_rag]

16 winners from 19 bets yesterday (and a couple who got an assist but still showed a profit) for a profit of 169 points.

Overall that makes it 291 winners from 359 bets (81.06%) for a return of +1710 points. ROI = 30.83% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 5546.)

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Heerenveen v Ajax: Tadic at 20 and Neres at 19

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Man U v Brighton: Fernandes at 18

Marseille v Dijon: Thauvin at 18 and Payet at 17

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Just now, harry_rag said:

Man U v Brighton: Fernandes at 18

Marseille v Dijon: Thauvin at 18 and Payet at 17

Sorry, that’s 19 and 18.

[harry_rag]

3 winners from 5 bets yesterday for a loss of 92 points. Not bad given that Fernandes made up at 62 and Payet made up at 124.

Overall that makes it 294 winners from 364 bets (80.77%) for a return of +1618 points. ROI = 28.69% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 5640.)

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Everton v C Palace: Rodriguez at 16

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Barcelona v Valladolid: Messi at 33, Dembele at 19, Pedri at 18 and Griezmann at 15

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5 out of 5 yesterday for a 101 point profit.

Overall that makes it 299 winners from 369 bets (81.03%) for a return of +1719 points. ROI = 29.94% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 5741.)

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Man City v Dortmund: De Bruyne at 25 and Mahrez at 18

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Besiktas v Alanyaspor: Ghezzal at 18

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Inter v Sassuolo: Eriksen at 18, Barella at 17, Lukaku and Hakimi at 15

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5 out of 7 over the last couple of days for a 40 point profit. Mahrez and Lukaku being the losing bets.

Overall that makes it 304 winners from 376 bets (80.85%) for a return of +1759 points. ROI = 29.98% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 5867.)

[harry_rag]

Yeni Malatyaspor v Fenerbahce: Erkin at 16

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Ajax v Roma: Tadic at 16

Granada v Man U: Fernandes at 21

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2 from 3 yesterday for a 14 point profit (Tadic the losing selection).

Overall that makes it 306 winners from 379 bets (80.74%) for a return of +1773 points. ROI = 29.95% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 5920.)

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Metz v Lille: Bamba at 18

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Man City v Leeds: Sterling at 16

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Spezia v Crotone: Gyasi at 17

R Madrid v Barcelona: Messi at 16

Strasbourg v PSG: Di Maria at 18

Might not be around later so posting the latter two now.

[harry_rag]

Inter v Cagliari: Sanchez at 21, Eriksen at 16 and Brozovic at 15

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Juventus v Genoa: Chiesa at 24, Morata at 23 and Cuadrado at 20

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Spurs v Man U: Fernandes at 16

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Erzurum v Besiktas: Ghezzal at 17

 

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Lyon v Angers: Depay at 20 and Slimani at 19

Fiorentina v Atalanta: Malinovskyi at 17

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13 winners from 15 since the last update for a 191 point profit. The losing selections were Malinovskyi and Ghezzal. Cuadrado got an assist but only in the 5th minute and Di Maria was a non runner.

Overall that makes it 319 winners from 394 bets (80.96%) for a return of +1964 points. ROI = 31.7% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 6195.)

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Fenerbahce v Gaziantep: Erkin at 19 and Sosa at 15

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Brighton v Everton: Gross at 16

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PSG v Bayern: Di Maria at 18 and Muller at 16

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Dortmund v Man City: De Bruyne at 21 and Mahrez at 15

Liverpool v R Madrid: Alexander-Arnold at 17

We're one short of the 400 mark and if all 3 start then it'll take us to 402 bets (100 since the minimum price was raised from 11 to 15). I'll update tomorrow but there have been 5 winners from 5 since the last update.

[harry_rag]

8 winners from 8 since the last update for a 137 point profit.

Overall that makes it 327 winners from 402 bets (81.34%) for a return of +2101 points. ROI = 33.18% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 6332.)

The first phase (minimum price 11) saw 302 bets return 1234 points for an average profit per bet of 4.09 points. That was over 22 days.

The second phase (minimum price 15) saw 100 bets return 867 points for an average profit per bet of 8.67 points. That was over 18 days.

I suspect there's a degree of luck involved in the higher average profit but I think 5 or 6 bets per day is closer to being viable than 13 or 14! I don't know if this is a big enough sample to prove it's a profitable avenue but it's suggestive at least.

[harry_rag]

Quick footnote to this thread, I decided to go live with a minimum sell price of 20. So far there have been 71 selections and I'm 128 points down. It's perhaps unfortunate that the biggest losing bet wasn't priced one point lower at 19 rather than the minimum of 20 as it cost me 157 points! I've hit 4 100+ totals in those 71 bets compared to just 5 out of the 402 bets posted in here. Overall I'm inclined to assume I've been unlucky since going live and will be carrying on until I build a bigger sample size.

To put that into context, I've only had 23 losses >100 points out of over 2300 bets, less than 1% of all bets. Those bets did cost me 2858 points though!

I'm inclined to try a similar exercise with the player card minutes market (time of any yellow card shown and double the time of any red card shown). I assume that will primarily be a buyers' market. Worst case scenario is a make up of 270 if a player gets both cards in the last minute, so it certainly has the potential to beat my "biggest losing bet" record!