harry_rag Posted September 20, 2021 Author Share Posted September 20, 2021 On 6/24/2021 at 4:42 PM, harry_rag said: Quick footnote to this thread, I decided to go live with a minimum sell price of 20. So far there have been 71 selections and I'm 128 points down. It's perhaps unfortunate that the biggest losing bet wasn't priced one point lower at 19 rather than the minimum of 20 as it cost me 157 points! 354 points up after 131 bets so +482 points from the last 60 bets, something like normal service resumed in terms of the bets posted in this thread. Selling player goal and assist minutes can be brutal; Denmark's 85th minute goal against the Faroe Islands saw Jensen assist Wind and turned a potential 64 point profit into a 106 point loss. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 Never seen anything like the Holland v Gibraltar game for assist minutes prices! I've sold 8 players for 1 point at a combined price of 321. The players in question are Berghuis, Depay, Dumfries, de Jong, Klassen, Lang, Blind and Wijnaldum. Holland expected to score at least 6 goals, let's see how it all shakes down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 12, 2021 Author Share Posted October 12, 2021 18 hours ago, harry_rag said: Never seen anything like the Holland v Gibraltar game for assist minutes prices! I've sold 8 players for 1 point at a combined price of 321. The players in question are Berghuis, Depay, Dumfries, de Jong, Klassen, Lang, Blind and Wijnaldum. Holland expected to score at least 6 goals, let's see how it all shakes down. Holland score 6, 1 pen and 1 assisted by sub Weghorst. 2 assists for Depay (-31 points), 1 each for Lang (-7 points) and Klassen (+10 points). Factor in the 5 players who drew a blank and it's a net profit of 197 points from the 8 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 Arsenal v C Palace: Lay Tierney to get an assist for 5 points at 4.9 on BF. The market is now offered on the exchange on Premier League games at least and I'm trying a few experimental lays (having proved, at some expense, that backing is a mugs game and, at some gain, that selling is viable). I'll add a bit of context tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 17 hours ago, harry_rag said: I'll add a bit of context tomorrow. Winner last night to kick things off, I'll try and keep this brief. Here's an overview of how you'd have done backing and laying at "fair", "lay" and "back" odds (where the latter 2 are the "fair" odds with a 10% edge added) using the sample of assist minute sells that I've done over recent months. Assists Bets Winners P/L ROI Back at “fair” odds 187 65 -25.34 -13.55% Lay at “lay” odds 187 122 39.07 16.42% Back at “back” odds 187 65 -9.18 -4.91% Lay at “fair” odds 187 122 22.90 8.03% The numbers that interest me are the amounts you'd have lost and won by backing or laying at the "fair" odds suggested by the spread price. I know from experience that backing anytime assists is a mug's game (for me at least) as I'm over 500 points down this year from playing in that market. I also know, from paper trading on here and real money trades, that selling player assist minutes is profitable. So, now that the market is available on the exchange it offers the intriguing proposition of laying anytime assists and fleecing the mugs! Here's what I propose to do; see how long it takes me to get matched on 100 lays and what the return is. I'll be looking at players priced at 10+ on the spreads and be putting up a 5 point lay at the "fair" odds. I won't be looking at player stats nor will I be seeing what prices the bookies are offering (not shown on Oddschecker so would take far too long). Very much a "KISS" system. Matched on 1 out of 3 lays so far with a return of +4.9 points after commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 match in the 2 early CL games, laid Foden for 5 points at 4.1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 Matched for full 5 point lay on Tadic (Ajax) at 4.7 and (all for PSG) Messi at 3,15, Draxler at 5 and (only for 1.3 points) Mbappe at 3.65. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 4 winning lays from 6 so far but down thanks to the losses on Foden and Draxler. Put up 39 lays for 6 of today's CL games (no prices to follow as yet for the other 2). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 Matched on a rather inconsequential 0.15 of a point on Depay at 3.45. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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