Player Assist Minutes - Sell Experiment

[harry_rag]

31 minutes ago, The Accountant said:

Interesting thread, good concept

Thanks for looking in. Experience of other markets suggest that performance is worse than expected at the moment but I rarely sell anything at such a low price with real money. I'll press on to at least 200 given how quickly the first 100 will be reached.

[harry_rag]

I've just put the results into a spreadsheet and, as a result, made a few minor corrections to the updates so far (mainly relating to the number of bets being incorrect). 

Here's the players for the later Europa League games. I'll do the early ones when the line ups are confirmed.

Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk: Pellegrini at 18 and Mkhitaryan at 17

Granada v Molde: Kenedy at 16 and Machis at 15

Olympiakos v Arsenal: Odegaard at 13, Smith-Rowe at 12, Saka at 12 and Willian at 12

Spurs v Dinamo Zagreb: Kane at 23, Son at 17, Alli at 13 and Doherty at 11

[harry_rag]

Ajax v Young Boys: Antony at 17, Tadic at 13, Neres at 13 and Sulejmani at 13

Man U v AC Milan: Fernandes at 22, James at 11 and Telles at 11

Slavia Prague v Rangers: Stanciu at 12

[harry_rag]

21 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk: Pellegrini at 18 and Mkhitaryan at 17  both 0

Granada v Molde: Kenedy at 16 and Machis at 15  0

Olympiakos v Arsenal: Odegaard at 13, Smith-Rowe at 12, Saka at 12 and Willian at 12  0, 0 and 79

Spurs v Dinamo Zagreb: Kane at 23, Son at 17, Alli at 13 and Doherty at 11  all 0

 

19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Ajax v Young Boys: Antony at 17, Tadic at 13, Neres at 13 and Sulejmani at 13  all 0

Man U v AC Milan: Fernandes at 22, James at 11 and Telles at 11  50, 0 and 0

Slavia Prague v Rangers: Stanciu at 12  0

15 winners from 17 bets, +124 points.

Overall that makes it 72 winners from 90 bets for a return of +198 points. Revised estimated return after 100 bets = +223 points. ROI = 15.17% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 1305.)

[harry_rag]

Augsburg v BMG: Hofmann at 11

 

[harry_rag]

Atalanta v Spezia: Ilicic at 20, Muriel at 18 and Gosens at 16

Levante v Valencia: De Frutos at 11

Reims v Lyon: Depay at 16

[harry_rag]

16 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Augsburg v BMG: Hofmann at 11  0

 

15 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Atalanta v Spezia: Ilicic at 20, Muriel at 18 and Gosens at 16   53, 0 and 0

Levante v Valencia: De Frutos at 11  0

Reims v Lyon: Depay at 16  90

4 wins from 6 bets for a loss of 51 points.

Overall that makes it 76 winners from 96 bets for a return of +147 points. Revised estimated return after 100 bets = +157 points. ROI = 10.52% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 1397.)

[harry_rag]

Leeds v Chelsea: Ziyech at 12

[harry_rag]

W Bremen v B Munich: Muller at 23, Kimmich at 18, Coman at 17, Davies at 15 and Gnabry at 15

(Coman will be the 100th bet, thought I'll press on to at least 200.)

[harry_rag]

R Madrid v Elche: Benzema at 15 and Junior at 12

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Benevento v Fiorentina: Ribery at 12

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Everton v Burnley: Digne at 13

Dortmund v Hertha Berlin: Hazard at 11

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Genoa v Udinese: De Paul at 11

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Bologna v Sampdoria: Soriano at 13, Barrow at 11 and Candreva at 11

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Nimes v Montpellier: Benerhou at 12, Savanier at 13, Sambia at 13, Delort at 12 and Laborde at 12.

[harry_rag]

Leverkusen v A Bielefeld: Diaby at 16, Demiraby at 14, Gray at 11 and Amiri at 11

[harry_rag]

Southampton v Brighton: Gross at 14

[harry_rag]

Leicester v Sheffield U: Vardy, Tielmans, Perez and Castagne all at 11

Parma v Roma: Pellegrini at 18 and Spinazzola at 12

Torino v Inter: Lukaku and Martinez at 15, Hakimi at 13, Barella at 12 and Brozovic at 11

RB Leipzig v E Frankfurt: Forsberg at 14 and Kostic at 11

[harry_rag]

10 winners from 12 bets yesterday, Muller (57) and Ribery (75) being the only losers. A profit of 42 points.

Overall that makes it 86 winners from 108 bets for a return of +189 points. ROI = 12.03% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 1571.)

The profit after 100 bets was +160 points, so only 64% of the forecasted profit at the start of the thread. I've had worse outcomes when I've been betting with real money! 

Carrying on to 200 bets, estimated return +382 points.

[harry_rag]

Granada v R Sociedad: Januzaj at 13 and Silva at 11

[harry_rag]

Monaco v Lille: Bamba at 12

Arsenal v Spurs: Son at 12

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Stuttgart V Hoffenheim: Kaljdzic at 13 and Castro at 11

Cagliari v Juventus: Morata and Chiesa at 20, Cuadrado at 19 and Ronaldo and Kulusevski at 11

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Man U v West Ham: Fernandes at 17 and Rashford at 11

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AC Milan v Napoli: Calhanoglu at 11 & Mertens at 12

Sevilla v Betis: Gomez at 13 and Navas and Suso at 11

PSG v Nantes: Di Maria at 23, Mbappe at 19 and Draxer at 12

[harry_rag]

42 winners from 47 bets yesterday, Barrow (41), Gross (16), Vardy (108), Chiesa (32) and Navas (27) being the only losers. Cuadrado (10) also got an assist but was still a winner. A profit of 387 points.

Overall that makes it 128 winners from 155 bets for a return of +576 points. ROI = 26.28% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 2192.)

Carrying on to 200 bets, estimated return +670 points.

[harry_rag]

Barcelona v Huesca: Messi at 32, Griezmann at 20, Dembele at 19, Pedri at 18, Alba at 14 and De Jong at 11

[harry_rag]

Wolves v Liverpool: Robertson at 12 and Alexander-Arnold at 11

[harry_rag]

6 winners from 8 bets yesterday, Messi (53) and Pedri (35) being the losers. A profit of 49 points.

Overall that makes it 134 winners from 163 bets (82.21%) for a return of +625 points. ROI = 26.84% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 2329.)

Estimated return after 200 bets: +703 points.

[harry_rag]

PSG v Lille: Di Maria at 15

[harry_rag]

Sevilla v Elden: Suso and Navas at 11