Player Assist Minutes - Sell Experiment

[harry_rag]

England v San Marino: Lingard and Ward-Prowse at 33, Mount at 31, Sterling at 27, James at 33, Phillips at 19, Chilwell at 17 and Calvert-Lewin at 11 (though my gut reaction is that last price looks low against these opponents)

Germany v Iceland: Sane at 23, Kimmich and Havertz at 19, Gnabry at 15 and Gundogan at 13

Italy v N Ireland: Pellegrini at 23, Insigne at 20, Locatelli at 19 and Immobile at 13

Spain v Greece: Canales at 14 and Torres and Llorente at 13

Sweden v Georgia: Larsson at 15, Ibrahimovic at 14 and Kulusevski and Claesson at 11

France U21 v Denmark U21: Edouard at 13 and Truffart at 12

Portugal U21 v Croatia U21: Trincao at 15

Presumably not far off the 300 after that little lot! 

[harry_rag]

Yesterday there were 27 winners from 32 bets for a profit of 178 points. There were 5 other players who made up at higher than zero, 4 were still profitable and one was a push as it landed on the spread. Not a bad result given that Chalov made up at 139!

Overall that makes it 246 winners from 302 bets (81.46%) for a return of +1234 points. ROI = 28.08% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 4395.)

Worst losing run, 3 on 3 occasions, best winning run, 19 twice.

[Wildgarden]

how do you pick the players to make it profitable? trends perhaps?

[harry_rag]

46 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

how do you pick the players to make it profitable? trends perhaps?

For the purpose of this experiment it's simply been a case of "if sell price >10 then sell". I've missed the odd game but this probably represents at least 90% of all the available bets during the time I've been doing it. I'd guess that no more than 20% of the players that are priced up get into double digits.

I suspect this is probably a profitable market for the firms because most people want to sell so they quote all the players a bit higher than their true value. After all, not everyone is tempted by the prospect of a bet with a known upside of 12 points but an unknown downside that could run into 3 figures. It's like betting at long odds on with an added element of volatility on the loss side!

On the evidence of this sample, it might be rewarding to sellers despite the unfavourable risk/reward ratio, provided you were willing to stick it out for the long term and not be put off by any bumps in the road.

[mr shrewdie]

A impressive return harry, if you have the balls to use £1 a point £1234 profit in less than a month is fantastic, are you using Sporting Index, slightly different spread at Spreadex sometimes, interesting system, I'm enjoying following.

[harry_rag]

21 minutes ago, mr shrewdie said:

A impressive return harry, if you have the balls to use £1 a point £1234 profit in less than a month is fantastic, are you using Sporting Index, slightly different spread at Spreadex sometimes, interesting system, I'm enjoying following.

I'm just using best sell price whichever of the firms it's with although most of the bets were with SPIN as they quote the market in far more games and are more likely to be best price in the ones where both quote.

No huge spheroids required (or profit reaped) given that these have just been paper trades as per opening post, though £1 per point is my usual sell stake, albeit usually at higher prices than these. I posted a 90 day selling thread in the Glory Hunts section last October that hit the target of 1000 points in 50 bets over 43 days, so less bets but took longer!

I've also been tracking something with bookings since the start of Feb which has shown a return of 578 points from 173 bets. Buyers at best price would've lost 1091 points which goes to show how powerful the spread is in terms of the firms turning a profit. When you factor in that most punters prefer to buy...!

[Wildgarden]

do these firms ban profitable players or are they kinder?

[harry_rag]

17 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

do these firms ban profitable players or are they kinder?

I'd say yes to both. They're more elastic than your average fixed odds firm but if you twang hard enough the elastic can still snap! I believe account closures are fairly rare but you could find stakes being limited, bets being referred to trader or prices being moved against you. Unlikely to be a problem that quickly for anyone playing modest stakes and not abusing arbs.

[harry_rag]

Here's the table after the 300 bet mark was reached. Performance of each price (largely irrelevant given how small the samples are) and how many bets/the return if you raised the minimum to each number (useful to decide on where to set the minimum to generate the preferred number of bets).

Price	Bets	P/L	Ave P/L	Bets Min	P/L Min	% Min	Ave P/L Min
11	74	-58	-0.78
12	51	306	6.00	228	1292	75.50%	5.67
13	36	445	12.36	177	986	58.61%	5.57
14	29	79	2.72	141	541	46.69%	3.84
15	26	-44	-1.69	112	462	37.09%	4.13
16	15	-13	-0.87	86	506	28.48%	5.88
17	14	95	6.79	71	519	23.51%	7.31
18	14	94	6.71	57	424	18.87%	7.44
19	12	130	10.83	43	330	14.24%	7.67
20	8	13	1.63	31	200	10.26%	6.45
>20	23	187	8.13	23	187	7.62%	8.13
Total	302	1234	4.09

[harry_rag]

Phase two, will carry on to at least 400 but with the minimum price set at 15. If nothing else, it should thin the numbers out enough to make this endeavour a little less time consuming! 

Croatia v Cyprus: Modric at 21 and Brozovic at 15

Holland v Latvia: Depay at 38, Berghuis at 35, De Jong and Dumfries at 17

[harry_rag]

Czech Rep v Belgium: De Bruyne at 16

[harry_rag]

Kazakhstan v France: Griezmann at 25, Digne at 23, Dembele at 18 and Pogba at 15

[harry_rag]

Georgia v Spain: Salvatierra at 16 and Torres at 15

Denmark v Moldova: Dolberg at 20

[harry_rag]

Bulgaria v Italy: Insigne at 18

Romania v Germany: Sane at 22, Gnabry at 20, Kimmich at 18 and Havertz at 17

[harry_rag]

Over the weekend there were 16 winners from 19 bets for a profit of 159 points. There was 1 other player who made up at higher than zero but still showed a 1 point profit. I noticed a Spanish and a Danish player who made up at over 120. Just a reminder that, in the short term at least, there's an element of bullet dodging to these bets!

Overall that makes it 262 winners from 321 bets (81.62%) for a return of +1393 points. ROI = 29.14% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 4781.)

[harry_rag]

Holland U21 v Hungary U21: Kluivert at 15

[harry_rag]

Gibraltar v Holland: Berghuis at 49, Depay at 45, L De Jong at 28, Klassen at 20, Wijnaldum and F De Jong at 18 and Blind at 15 (wow)

[harry_rag]

Luxembourg v Portugal: Silva at 25

[harry_rag]

6 winners from 9 bets yesterday for a profit of 72 points.

Overall that makes it 268 winners from 330 bets (81.21%) for a return of +1465 points. ROI = 29.22% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 5014.)

[harry_rag]

Iceland U21 v France U21: Edouard at 23 and Ikone at 20

Switzerland U21 v Portugal U21: Trincao at 15

[harry_rag]

Bosnia & Herzegovina v France: Griezmann at 17

Lithuania v Italy: Insigne at 26, Pellegrini at 24, Immobile and Chiesa at 20, Sensi at 16 and Belloti, Biraghi and Locatelli at 15

Spain v Kosovo: Alba at 23 and Pedri and Torres at 18

[harry_rag]

7 winners from 10 bets yesterday (only 3 of the listed Italian players started) for a profit of 76 points.

Overall that makes it 275 winners from 340 bets (80.88%) for a return of +1541 points. ROI = 29.59% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 5207.)

Edited April 1, 2021 by harry_rag
7 winners, not 3

[harry_rag]

AC Milan v Sampdoria: Calhanoglu at 23 and Castillejo at 17

[harry_rag]

Monaco v Metz: Golovin at 18

Chelsea v West Brom: Ziyech at 15

[harry_rag]

Atalanta v Udinese: Muriel at 16, Zapata at 15 and Malinovskyi at 16

Napoli v Crotone: Mertens at 24, Insigne at 19 and Politano at 15

Sassuolo v Roma: Pellegrini at 19

[harry_rag]

Leeds v Sheffield U: Raphinha at 18

 

[harry_rag]

PSG v Lille: Di Maria at 18

[harry_rag]

Torino v Juventus: Chiesa at 19, Morata at 18 and Cuadrado at 17

Leicester v Man City: De Bruyne at 20

[harry_rag]

Bologna v Inter: Eriksen at 15

[harry_rag]

Final one of the day in France.

Lens v Lyon: Depay at 17