The Brigadier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Saturday’s feature handicap is run at Doncaster where hopefully they’ll race. The course was frozen on Monday but with warmer temperatures due from mid week on the clerk of the course is very hopeful he’ll be racing for a two day card which will also feature Shiskin on Saturday in the Lightning Novices Chase. There is rain due and the ground is likely to be soft. 18 have declared at today’s five day stage with Definitly Red heading the weights. A classy type who was runner up in last year’s Peter Marsh off of a 2lb lower mark he appears to be in the handicappers grip currently. Colin Tizzard is having a treacherous season with, at time of writing going 34 days and 42 runners since his last winner. Which actually was his useful chaser Mister Malarkey when a 16/1 winner at Ascot. He’s up 6lb for that but anything from the yard has to come with a warning at present. He’s also got an entry in Saturdays Cotswolds Chase at Cheltenham. Sizing At Midnight also represents Tizzard but as already said it takes a big leap of faith to be backing his stable at present. Aye Right represents the small Scottish stable of Harriet Graham who is also clerk of the course at Musselburgh. He’s held his form well in three runs over fences this season which includes a 3rd in the Charlie Hall and a 10 length 2nd to Cloth Cap in the Ladbroke Trophy. Good form indeed and having had a recent pipe opener for this in a ‘bumper for jumpers’ when 6th he should be competitive here. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has two entries - firstly the Alex Ferguson owned Just A Copper who for an eleven year old is very lightly raced, this will be only his 13th career run. He ran Kim Bailey’s Rocky Treasure to 1/2 length over this course and distance and can re-oppose on 4lb better terms. He will however have to race on Saturday off of his highest ever handicap mark and it’s hard to believe he’s getting better at his age although to be fair a wind operation may have helped his improved effort last time. Bottom weight Kapcorse is Nicholl’s other runner, he probably needed the run when a 20 length 7th to favourite Cap Du Nord at Newbury on his first run for 664 days and can re-oppose on 19lb better terms which brings him into the equation. He does have his stamina to prove however. Rocky’s Treasure bounced back to form in the Just A Copper race, although behind today’s favourite Cap Du Nord on his previous start now meets that rival on 12lb better terms for a 21 length beating. He does have a good track record as well with his course figures reading 1151. With Kim Bailey’s yard now back in form he’s not without a chance. Alan King has won this event twice in the last eight years with Ziga Boy and his representative Canelo followed his 4 1/4 lengths 2nd to Cap Du Nord (6lb better off) with a 3/4 length victory in Wetherby’s Roland Meyrick over Christmas. Even though the 3rd that day let the form down at Ascot on Saturday he has to be on the short list. 11 year old veteran Yorkhill rolled back the years to take the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November at 66/1 and despite a 5lb rise doesn’t look that badly treated on his best back form (he also has an entry in the Cotswolds Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday) Nicky Richards has two declared in Takingrisks (4th behind Yorkhill in the Rehearsal last time) and Guitar Pete who has yet to prove his stamina for 3 miles especially on soft ground. Antony Honeyball has his Dorset team in excellent shape and has declared Sojourn who as a lightly raced 8 year old also has claims. 4 lengths runner up in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock last time he’ll relish soft ground and the worry with him maybe that he’s needs it hock deep. Nick Williams, who’s yard is in great form (2 winners from last 4 runners) has entered perhaps the most interesting horse in the race in his novice One For The Team, who’s only had three runs in chases, following an excellent 2nd to the smart Next Destination (won since) with a 5th in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day to the smart pair Shan Blue and The Big Breakaway. His initial Chase mark of 141 looks a workable one and he can be very competitive. Although chasing inexperience may be his downfall. Caroline Bailey’s Boldmere was an impressive winner over course and distance over a year ago but his runs this year, including last time out over course and distance behind Rocky’s Treasure, are hardly shouting back me and he remains 7lb higher than his win. The McNeill family’s The Butcher Said had his limitations exposed last time when 6th in the Rehearsal Chase when making a couple of mistakes. He won’t be able to get away with those on Saturday although one thing in his favour is the fact that his trainer Olly Murphy is in fine form at the moment. Welsh trainer Christian Williams is very much under estimated and his Cap Du Nord is the one everyone has to beat here. A comfortable winner at Newbury from Canelo he followed that up with a career best when being the only horse to be able to give subsequent Haydock winner Royale Pagaille some sort of race at Kempton over Christmas. The pair pulling clear of the 3rd Double Shuffle who went to win a valuable handicap at the same track. Even the well beaten 7th has gone on to nearly win the Somerset National. Royale Pagaille was put up 16lb for that run (plus what he’ll go up for Saturdays victory - possibly another 10lb+) but Cap Du Nord was only raised 6lb. He could be a handicap snip come Saturday. He appears to have been trained for the race and hopefully Jack Tudor,his regular rider will take the ride. Musical Slave, one of 3 for JP McManus here (Kapcourse and Canelo the other two) has to race off of his highest ever handicap mark though may well improve for the step up in trip. Venetia William’s Commodore ran a stinker last time at Kempton and has something to prove now. Summary:- Cap Du Nord stands out here as the best handicapped horse on his 2nd place to the very smart Royal Pagaille and has to be the main bet. Bottom weight Kapcorse (below) is also worth a small ew bet. He has a big pull with Cap Du Nord on Newbury form and as that was his first run for 644 days and since a wind operation I would expect plenty of improvement. His trainer Paul Nicholl’s said ‘He has plenty of ability and should win a nice race somewhere’ in a Racing Post trainer file back in November. The trip is an unknown but at a price nearly 7 times that of the favourite I can’t resist that. CAP DU NORD 2 points win @ 3/1 Paddy Power KAPCORSE 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 Paddy Power 1/4 odds 1234 Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Thought Kapcourse ran really well LTO considering coming back from a lengthy break, and a bad blunder 2 or 3 out cost him finishing among the money . The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Thought Kapcourse ran really well LTO considering coming back from a lengthy break, and a bad blunder 2 or 3 out cost him finishing among the money . Yes, just watched the race again Chris, that blunder two out certainly knocked the stuffing out of him. Just hope he runs, I wonder who will ride? Bryony rode him when he won at Newbury but I presume she'll be needed for Yala Enki at Cheltenham. And you just never know with these JP horses whether they're being teed up for the bigger Festivals !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 40 minutes ago, The Brigadier said: Yes, just watched the race again Chris, that blunder two out certainly knocked the stuffing out of him. Just hope he runs, I wonder who will ride? Bryony rode him when he won at Newbury but I presume she'll be needed for Yala Enki at Cheltenham. And you just never know with these JP horses whether they're being teed up for the bigger Festivals !! Would Angus Cheleda be eligible, with him being an apprentice? Can see the usual suspects heading to Cheltenham as you say. Yes, bad blunder and the reason I remember is because I had money on him. Well, JP loves getting his horses primed for those big handicap races doesn’t he, so who knows. The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Rated this .... Mister malarkey 7.8 11/1 14/1 VALUE give me a copper 6.7 13.5/1 14/1 value Definately red 6.6 13.5/1 25/1 good value Cap du nord 6.6 13.5 3/1 poor value Top 3 excluding cap du nord are all value bets in this race ....3 against field for me LEE-GRAYS, The Brigadier and Villa Chris 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Rated this .... Mister malarkey 7.8 11/1 14/1 VALUE give me a copper 6.7 13.5/1 14/1 value Definately red 6.6 13.5/1 25/1 good value Cap du nord 6.6 13.5 3/1 poor value Top 3 excluding cap du nord are all value bets in this race ....3 against field for me Have to be worried by Tizzard form surely though? Although I suppose thats built into the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 20 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Would Angus Cheleda be eligible, with him being an apprentice? Can see the usual suspects heading to Cheltenham as you say. Yes, bad blunder and the reason I remember is because I had money on him. Well, JP loves getting his horses primed for those big handicap races doesn’t he, so who knows. would be delighted with Angus tbh - great value for his claim Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, The Brigadier said: Have to be worried by Tizzard form surely though? Although I suppose thats built into the price. Ordinarily I don't like high weights in this race ......and a few have to break age trends too ....but I think a 6lb rise for cap du Nord 2nd looks harsh so gotta trust the ratings on this one Edited January 25, 2021 by richard-westwood The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Done the ratings. Won’t bother with the odds until Friday once I know who’s running and who ain’t. Yorkhill 9.1 Aye Right 8.6 Definitely Red 8.6 Canelo 8.5 Rockys Treasure 8.4 Taking Risks 7.6 Give Me A Copper 7.3 Big weights don’t usually do well in this and also horses that are getting to the end of their racing days, so I’ll probably be happy to write off definitely red. Yorkhill is 11, but is carrying a light enough weight to enter calculations, and he’s top rated and will be value. Rockys Treasure is carrying less than 11 stone which is a big plus. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/25/2021 at 7:45 PM, richard-westwood said: Rated this .... Mister malarkey 7.8 11/1 14/1 VALUE give me a copper 6.7 13.5/1 14/1 value Definately red 6.6 13.5/1 25/1 good value Cap du nord 6.6 13.5 3/1 poor value Top 3 excluding cap du nord are all value bets in this race ....3 against field for me In the process of rating this, can't finish it until I know the jockeys (I add a weighting for certain jocks). Currently Cap Du Nord is 11th on my list, around 20/1! Malarkey my top also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Pirate53 said: In the process of rating this, can't finish it until I know the jockeys (I add a weighting for certain jocks). Currently Cap Du Nord is 11th on my list, around 20/1! Malarkey my top also. I can understand why hes fav ......cap du Nords collateral form looks top draw .....the winner...4th and 7th all came out and ran fantastic and he does fit the profile of usual winner .....only concern I can see is distance and ground if its heavy .....I think the race will cut up badly so I'm holding back Edited January 27, 2021 by richard-westwood Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) Had a go at the 18.50 Kempton: Roller 13.7 My odds 13/2 15/2 Value Pink Jazz 12.55 My odds 7/1 7/1 Same Oud Metha 12.15 My odds 15/2 4/1 No value Power Of Time 11.55 My odds 8/1 16/1 Value Cashel 11.45 My odds 8/1 5/1 No value Makambe 11.45 My odds 8/1 6/1 No value Moxy Mares 11.20 My odds 8.25/1 4/1 No value Warning! I am experimenting here, please do not follow! Edited January 27, 2021 by Pirate53 Updated current prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Pirate53 said: Had a go at the 18.50 Kempton: Roller 13.7 My odds 13/2 16/1 Value Pink Jazz 12.55 My odds 7/1 7/1 Same Oud Metha 12.15 My odds 15/2 7/2 No value Power Of Time 11.55 My odds 8/1 14/1 Value Cashel 11.45 My odds 8/1 5/1 No value Makambe 11.45 My odds 8/1 13/2 No value Moxy Mares 11.20 My odds 8.25/1 4/1 No value Warning! I am experimenting here, please do not follow! Are the bookies reading this?!! Roller now 15/2 within 5 mins Edit just checked oddschecker, Roller hasn't been over 9/1 all day. Their feeds must be f****d. Will update original post with correct odds. Edited January 27, 2021 by Pirate53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Pirate53 said: Had a go at the 18.50 Kempton: Roller 13.7 My odds 13/2 15/2 Value Pink Jazz 12.55 My odds 7/1 7/1 Same Oud Metha 12.15 My odds 15/2 4/1 No value Power Of Time 11.55 My odds 8/1 16/1 Value Cashel 11.45 My odds 8/1 5/1 No value Makambe 11.45 My odds 8/1 6/1 No value Moxy Mares 11.20 My odds 8.25/1 4/1 No value Warning! I am experimenting here, please do not follow! 1st and 2nd but wrong way round! Pleased with that. Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) Lot of late money for Roller. I risked the grand sum of £2 on the 4TBP market!! Edited January 27, 2021 by Pirate53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Pirate53 said: Rating Percent Chance Horse Odds 10.6 10.2119460501 Malvern 8 9.79 9.15 8.8150289017 Departmentalize 9 11.34 12.55 12.0905587669 Pink Jazz 2 8.27 13.7 13.1984585742 Roller 1 7.58 12.15 11.7052023121 Oud Metha Brg 3 8.54 11.55 11.1271676301 Power Of Time 4 8.99 11.45 11.0308285164 Makambe 5 9.07 11.2 10.7899807322 Moxy Mares 7 9.27 11.45 11.0308285164 Cashel 5 9.07 Your in the skybet chase thread ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I wondered why I couldn't find my posts! Lol, dickhead. Villa Chris and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Sky Bet Chase down to 13 runners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Pirate53 said: Sky Bet Chase down to 13 runners. I'll re rate the race in the morning ....knew it would cut up Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 (edited) Yorkhill 9.1 , 16/1(9/1) value Aye Right 8.6, 8/1(9/1-10/1) no value Canelo 8.5 , 9/2(9/1-10/1) no value Rockys Treasure 8.4, 12/1(9/1-10/1) value Taking Risks 7.5, 25/1(12/1) value Give Me A Copper 7.3, 12/1(12/1) bang on . Top 6 rated with my price in brackets. Yorkhill offers good value but some strong trends go against him and he’s also down for The Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham. Trends suggest you need to be carrying 11’2 or less ,which leaves Aye Right(11’7) and Give Me A Copper(11’5) vulnerable, as well as Canelo who carries 11’4. Rockys Treasure won’t want it too testing, and has done most of his winning in small fields . Taking risks goes against the age trend but he looks a solid ew bet in what is an ew race . Edited January 28, 2021 by Villa Chris Tedthewolf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Yorkhill did me a big favour lto but not for me this week as we are likley to be on at least soft ground york hill needs good ground. I'm with Chris on rank outsider TAKING RISKS looks to have a very decent e/w chance and have just taking e/w with Bet 365 at a massive 33/1 3places 1/4 odds & BOG. Was behind york hill lto 1lb lower here over same trip will be a lot softer here which will suit got hampered a bit lto i just can not let this horse go unbacked at current odds. BBBC, justice, Villa Chris and 2 others 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I've tweaked the formula slightly and rerated the race Aye right 8.4 Mister malarkey 8.2 York hill 8.2 Taking risks 8.0 Cap du nord 7.8 This looks aye rights for the taking....he was improving up until the last run which I think can be ignored .....handles soft ....i think he can bounce back at a big price..... Aye right ..10pts ew 10/1 bet365 BBBC, Alley Cat Glover, Villa Chris and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not particularly strong trends but I'll have a bash. 6 out of the last 7 winners have had forecast odds between 7/1 and 10/1. This quickly reduces the field to 2, AYE RIGHT and MUSICAL SLAVE. 44 horses have carried more than 11 stone and only 2 have won. This leaves MUSICAL SLAVE, although it's odds have shortened from 10/1 this morning, best price currently is 4/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 (edited) Has Taking Risks lost a leg? Down to 11 going to post this horse is available at 50/1 withh PP paying 6 place and in general not wanted by the bookies I note a couple guys have it rated in top 3 or 4 if you take out non runners & i thought it had a really decent e/w chance have we got it so wrong or have the bookies? Not looking Good for Taking Risks if the market is to go by. Edited January 30, 2021 by Tedthewolf BBBC and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 My ratings, not confident! Give me a Copper 20.45 7/1 Mr Malarkey 19.70 15/2 Canelo 18.75 8/1 Takingrisks 17.4 17/2 Rockys Treasure 16.65 9/1 Boldmere 14.9 10/1 One For The Team 13.0 12/1 Musical Slave 12.4 12.5/1 Aye Right 11.85 13/1 Cap Du nord 11.80 13/1 The Butcher Said 10.9 14/1 Try as I may I can't get Cap Du Nord any higher unless I cook the books! No uplift for trainer or jockey, No form at the distance. Obvious value is Takingrisks ew. I fancy Canelo. BBBC, richard-westwood, MCLARKE and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 hours ago, Tedthewolf said: Has Taking Risks lost a leg? Down to 11 going to post this horse is available at 50/1 withh PP paying 6 place and in general not wanted by the bookies I note a couple guys have it rated in top 3 or 4 if you take out non runners & i thought it had a really decent e/w chance have we got it so wrong or have the bookies? Not looking Good for Taking Risks if the market is to go by. Think he definitely had four legs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 (edited) Yeah I had a cheeky 1 quid ew .....just seemed too good a price ??.now wish I'd had more ....but great to see he was flagged as a value bet .....really stamps the ratings Edited January 30, 2021 by richard-westwood vikki37, BBBC and Villa Chris 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:53 PM, Villa Chris said: Aye Right 8.6, 8/1(9/1-10/1) no value 2nd Canelo 8.5 , 9/2(9/1-10/1) no value 4th Rockys Treasure 8.4, 12/1(9/1-10/1) value Taking Risks 7.5, 25/1(12/1) value won Give Me A Copper 7.3, 12/1(12/1) bang on . Top 6 rated with my price in brackets. Yorkhill offers good value but some strong trends go against him and he’s also down for The Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham. Trends suggest you need to be carrying 11’2 or less ,which leaves Aye Right(11’7) and Give Me A Copper(11’5) vulnerable, as well as Canelo who carries 11’4. Rockys Treasure won’t want it too testing, and has done most of his winning in small fields . Taking risks goes against the age trend but he looks a solid ew bet in what is an ew race . The ratings did well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 (edited) On 1/28/2021 at 11:00 PM, richard-westwood said: I've tweaked the formula slightly and rerated the race Aye right 8.4 Mister malarkey 8.2 York hill 8.2 Taking risks 8.0 Cap du nord 7.8 This looks aye rights for the taking....he was improving up until the last run which I think can be ignored .....handles soft ....i think he can bounce back at a big price..... Aye right ..10pts ew 10/1 bet365 2nd .... taking risks won .....cheltenham here we come !!! Edited January 30, 2021 by richard-westwood Alley Cat Glover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild20 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Cheeky £1 e/w Taking risks wins! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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